Sanctissima wrote:Shofercia wrote:
I never said that Russia is a Superpower. I think there's quite a bit of room between Superpower and average country. I think that Russia is strong. You don't have to be a Superpower to be strong. The reason I like PPP, is because it's real. Nominal is crap in terms of purchasing power. Can I afford to live comfortably - that's the first question, and PPP takes that into account much better than nominal GDP. Let's say you have two countries. In one country, you make $100,000, pay $50,000 in taxes, $20,000 for Healthcare, $18,000 for rent, $7,000 for food, and so on... you're left with $5,000.
In another country, (and again, these are made up to prove a point,) you make $20,000, but you pay no taxes, Healthcare is free, rent is $3,000 and food is $2,000. You're left with $15,000. In the case of the second country, you are much better off. PPP takes that into account. Nominal doesn't. The sanctions have actually benefited the Putin Administration, by providing a perfect scapegoat for Putin's banking fuck up that few noticed, unlike Lukashenko's 2009 banking fuck up, that everyone noticed. Although Putin and Lukashenko did it once in the time span of roughly two decades, Poroshenko probably does it on a monthly basis.
Nominal GDP equates Russia with Spain. PPP places Russia between Germany and Brazil. I think the latter is more accurate. Is Russia even in the top 5? Of course not. But if Russia can beat Japan in the next two decades, Russia can make the top 5. Granted, struggling to make the top 5 ain't a Superpower Goal, but it ain't crap either.
Hey now, you're preaching to the choir when it comes to Poroshenko. I recognize he's a corrupt incompetent ass.
On the topic of economics, my problem with PPP is that it doesn't really take into account the effectiveness of how money is being used. Granted, nominal GDP just outright ignores that factor altogether, but when you have a country like Russia where government services are typically, well, complete shit, I do question just how accurate PPP can be in such circumstances. Sure, on paper there's a lot of money being spent on healthcare and other services, but is this reflected in the actual quality of the service being provided? No, not in the slightest.
All Russia really has left is its military strength, economic dominance over nearby nations, and sheer massiveness in terms of size. None of which are as great as they used to be, and the latter has proven to be a double-edged sword on more than one occasion.
Will Russia implode and become an irrelevant shit country comparable to neighbouring Belarus? No, but neither will it become a renewed and revitalized major player on the world stage in the coming decades. Economically it relies too much on oil and natural gas exports, and isn't particularly diversified. Politically its unity is measured in Putin's lifespan. And militarily, while it is large, it's incapable of competing with NATO, and has to pussyfoot around its real objectives in much smaller nations like Georgia and Ukraine just to avoid shaking the proverbial boat too much. 50 years ago, zero fucks would have been given about sending tank columns all the way to Kiev. Nowadays, Russia can't even annex Crimea without being anally raped by sanctions.
Government services in Russia have improved quite a bit. Most of Putin's support comes from the improvement in the Living Standards, which have gone up quite substantially. If he didn't, at the very least triple the Living Standards, how, just how else would he get 60%+ support? The Crimean Annexation spiked it, sure, but he was doing quite well before that. How would such Demographic Jump have been possible, if it wasn't for reforms in Government Services?
By the year 2000, Russia was losing almost a million people per year due to Natural Change. 958,532 if you want the exact number. By 2015, said number was a net positive of 32,000. Sure, in 2016 it was negative again, but the change was slight, and a net positive is expected for 2017. Although the TFR remains low, beneficial reforms have been introduced and successfully implemented. And if you take into account population growth as a result of immigration of Ukrainians into Russia, who are there to stay, you're looking at a massive gain. That's excluding Crimea. So while there's still quite a bit of work to be done, the improvement in Government Services have been good enough to upgrade them from "shit" to "adequate".
Regarding size - don't discount that factor. Another program that is being implemented is giving Russian Citizens land in the Far East, based on the US Homestead Act. It's working. For Homesteaders, their TFR is about 0.3 more than the average. That's above 2.1, or replacement level fertility. Furthermore, in Russia - you just have to speak Russian to belong. You need not look Russian. Of course your Russian should be damn good, rather than "all yo base r belong to us" Russian. It's a miracle how many Ukrainians suddenly remembered that they can speak fluent Russian.
Belarus isn't imploding. Their population actually grew. Granted, it grew by 120 people a year, but it grew. And it's growing. Yes, that's due mostly to a positive net migration rate, thanks to Ukraine, but at least it's not shrinking, naturally, by much. Economically speaking:
Not as good as they should be doing, but not anywhere near implosion levels. Regarding Russian Unity - it's not measured by Putin's Lifespan. There's quite a bit of power tied to United Russia, CPRF, and even LDPR. Furthermore, there are various lobbying organizations that support the current path. Unlike the disarray in some countries, in Russia quite a few people agree on what the future should be, and how to get there, so the debate is mostly about compromisable issues. And judging by the Syrian Intervention, Russia is still a major player.
As far as sanctions are concerned - they generated quite a bit of laughter in Russia, but haven't made a dent in Russia's Foreign Policy.
