UK General Election 2010

[South Norwega]

It's really going to come down to the wire, isn't it?

Much will depend on how reliable that ComRes poll is, and if reliable whether that increased LibDem support holds up through the subsequent two debates. My initial interpretation is that most of the increased support is being hoovered up from protest vote fringe party support.

That explains the quite dramatic decline in "Other" support from the poll. Which means it matters less than support coming from the Tories or Labour, so isn't really all that beneficial for the Lib Dems.

EDIT: Could this be because many of these other supporters see a chance for a break in the two party system?

[The Archregimancy]

That explains the quite dramatic decline in "Other" support from the poll. Which means it matters less than support coming from the Tories or Labour, so isn't really all that beneficial for the Lib Dems.

Yes, because winning over 100 seats (edit: which I remain sceptical about) would clearly be a disaster for the LibDems.

I'm listening to the Radio 4 news right now, and Lord Adonis was just asked if "would you serve in a Clegg government?" Which ain't going to happen, but does show how much the terms of discussion have shifted since last night.

The Conservatives featuring in interviews are now all "putting Liberal policies under scrutiny", so they've decided to fight rather than ignore Clegg.

This story in the Guardian plays down the ComRes poll, but still serves to demonstrate how, again, the terms of discussion have changed since last night.

[Londim]

http://www.voterpower.org.uk/

That little site lets you know how much an effect your vote would have in your constituency. Quite interesting if people want to find out if it really is worth voting in their area.

[Barringtonia]

I was pretty disappointed that the first two questions are immigration and crime, the third is expenses - I don't know, I just think these are great emotional media stories, lovely political talking points but not, actually, serious political issues.

What about finance first, how are they managing our money - to be honest, none of them seem to be straight-talking, mostly it's the same old political banter.

[Barringtonia]

ComRes/ITV have just released the first post-debate poll on voting intentions.

I stress that this is not a poll regarding who won the debate. It is an actual post-debate poll on voting intention.


Conservatives - 36% (-3)

Liberal Democrats - 35% (+14)

Labour - 24% (-3)

Others - 5% (-8)


Somebody pinch me.

And just so we can all have a confirming right-of-centre source...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/liberaldemocrats/7597522/Liberal-Democrats-surge-after-Nick-Cleggs-TV-debate-performance.html

EDIT: Just seen your above post where you've posted the Guardian running commentary on all this..

Original Post: That's slightly over-stated,

It's Time to calm down – and reflect on the disadvantages of 24-hour news. I've just had a conversation with someone at ComRes who has explained the figures in a bit more detail. (See 12.09pm, 12.18pm, and 12.29pm.) ComRes are not saying that the Lib Dems are now at 35%.

The figures that are out on Twitter (see 12.09pm) reflect the voting intentions of those who watched the debate. They do indeed show a huge jump in Lib Dem support.

But only 9.4 million people watched the debate. There are more than 40 million voters in the UK. ComRes hasn't officially released its figures yet. When it does, it will give figures for the voting intentions of those who watched the debate. (These are the sensational ones, that we have already seen.)

Actually...

The more representative sample puts the Liberal Democrats on 24% – a very gentle rise – Labour on 28% and the Tories leading with seven points on 35%. So it's good news for Cameron. (It's difficult to verify on the ComRes website because it appears to have temporarily crashed - no doubt due to popular demand).

[Lacadaemon]

What about finance first, how are they managing our money - to be honest, none of them seem to be straight-talking, mostly it's the same old political banter.

Not that you probably care for my opinion, but Cable is the only guy in the commons who can run money. He gets it. The rest of them are clueless. (YMMV depending upon industry).

[Barringtonia]

What about finance first, how are they managing our money - to be honest, none of them seem to be straight-talking, mostly it's the same old political banter.

Not that you probably care for my opinion, but Cable is the only guy in the commons who can run money. He gets it. The rest of them are clueless. (YMMV depending upon industry).

I just feel they're making up what the problems are and then providing pick-a-card solutions. In some sense, I think Gordon Brown is making the most sense in attack but is, as is all of them, making little sense in solution. Aside from the fact that I think they're required to conjure up problems in order that they, as opposed to the opposition, have the solution, I don't even think they're really honest enough to say what any problem is and what any solution might be.

Is immigration really a major issue other than in headlines and as political scoring points? What exactly is the immigration problem other than being a political push point?

I genuinely haven't seen Vince Cable, what I fear is that we have professional politicians, they're good at politics alone and that's an issue.

It's a popularity contest mediated by the media, they're talking to the headlines.

I can't say I'm overly impressed by Nick Clegg, then again, I think the shock of power might mean they truly do look at things a little differently,

Oh, now we're on the 'our brave forces' schtick.

Not that you probably care for my opinion...

Sure I do, I'm currently working on a finan-politic gene-splice between you and Ashmoria for a unified theory of the world,

[SD_Film Artists]

what I fear is that we have professional politicians, they're good at politics alone and that's an issue.

It's a popularity contest mediated by the media, they're talking to the headlines.

Well I'm not sure what a non-professional party leader would look like. And they have to be good at politics to get their message across to the media.

This could just be spin, but apparently Nick Clegg won by not acting so rehearsed or depending on Media advisers; essentially 'being himself'.

Though the 'looking down the camera' was a clever trick which I'm surprised the other two didn't pick up on. We may see alot more of that in the next debate as all three leaders get wise to it (as if they weren't already with their Media advisers)

[South Norwega]

That explains the quite dramatic decline in "Other" support from the poll. Which means it matters less than support coming from the Tories or Labour, so isn't really all that beneficial for the Lib Dems.

Yes, because winning over 100 seats (edit: which I remain sceptical about) would clearly be a disaster for the LibDems.

I'm not saying it would be a disaster, but the poll, if it is evidence of anything, is evidence that they're winning votes but not from the right people to win the seats which go with the votes. Or something.

This does remind me of a thing I watched on YouTube from 1997 where John Cleese was talking for the LibDems: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gv4Abt3 ... re=related I think that's the right one.

[Johz]

http://www.voterpower.org.uk/

That little site lets you know how much an effect your vote would have in your constituency. Quite interesting if people want to find out if it really is worth voting in their area.

Apparently my constituency will end up supporting Labour. I feel useless, downgraded. I am a second class voter. :-(

Not that I can vote at all...

[SD_Film Artists]

http://www.voterpower.org.uk/

That little site lets you know how much an effect your vote would have in your constituency. Quite interesting if people want to find out if it really is worth voting in their area.

Apparently my constituency will end up supporting Labour. I feel useless, downgraded. I am a second class voter. :-(

Not that I can vote at all...

Well my constituency is a "very safe" Lib Dem seat, but I think I'd still vote at least to feel that bit more included in the process.

[Barringtonia]

Well I'm not sure what a non-professional party leader would look like.

Someone not so very bound by the rules of politics and media - the simple fact is that politics is a made-up framework of solutions to emotionally driven problems, each party acting their role as 'of the people', 'for law and order', 'the middle way', 'the fiscally prudent', when reality proves them none on any of these.

Politics has become about managing expectations of people, appearing to be tough on crime when a particular event hits the media when, really, crime doesn't much deviate, that 'the middle way' is meaningless in a non-extremist culture, that 'fiscally prudent' is utter rubbish when the economy is rising for reasons utterly divorced from political reaction,

Healthcare and education are important, but very rarely in the ways politicians and media talk about them, so often cherry-picking data to suit emotional points - are we more or less educated as a whole than 50 years ago, 20 years ago - in what context do we make that judgment?

One might argue that, well, that's just the way it is, some things will never change but, as the song actually ends, don't you believe it.

[SD_Film Artists]

Well I'm not sure what a non-professional party leader would look like.

Someone not so very bound by the rules of politics and media - the simple fact is that politics is a made-up framework of solutions to emotionally driven problems, each party acting their role as 'of the people', 'for law and order', 'the middle way', 'the fiscally prudent', when reality proves them none on any of these.

Politics has become about managing expectations of people, appearing to be tough on crime when a particular event hits the media when, really, crime doesn't much deviate, that 'the middle way' is meaningless in a non-extremist culture, that 'fiscally prudent' is utter rubbish when the economy is rising for reasons utterly divorced from political reaction,

Healthcare and education are important, but very rarely in the ways politicians and media talk about them, so often cherry-picking data to suit emotional points - are we more or less educated as a whole than 50 years ago, 20 years ago - in what context do we make that judgment?

One might argue that, well, that's just the way it is, some things will never change but, as the song actually ends, don't you believe it.

Is there a party leader that you'd say is non-professional? I'd think it's a myth that only the most obscure fringe-clinging parties can come close to.

[Barringtonia]

Is there a party leader that you'd say is non-professional?

No, these debates make that rather clear.

Then again, they're not really judged on results are they, they're judged on managing sentiment.

[The Infinite Dunes]

Clegg just said "billions and squillions". Oh my dear God.

Also, none of them have pointed the slightly misleading but entirely appalling fact that for the amount per capita that government spends on the NHS, we could simply sign everybody up to BUPA.

Two words -- pre-existing condition. It's hardly surprising that BUPA can be so cheap when they refuse to insure people with pre-existing conditions. There's a a whole host of other things they refuse pay for even if it's not a pre-existing condition. The two most shocking things they refuse to pay for are childbirth/pregnancy stuff and any screening or preventative treatments.

[The Archregimancy]

Clegg just said "billions and squillions". Oh my dear God.

Also, none of them have pointed the slightly misleading but entirely appalling fact that for the amount per capita that government spends on the NHS, we could simply sign everybody up to BUPA.

Two words -- pre-existing condition. It's hardly surprising that BUPA can be so cheap when they refuse to insure people with pre-existing conditions. There's a a whole host of other things they refuse pay for even if it's not a pre-existing condition. The two most shocking things they refuse to pay for are childbirth/pregnancy stuff and any screening or preventative treatments.

Absolutely. My leukaemia was diagnosed when we were living in Australia, and had private insurance. We returned to the UK after my diagnosis for a variety of reasons, but while we are now on BUPA (because my wife's employer automatically signs up employees and partners), they won't cover my leukaemia because it's a pre-existing condition.

Of course, if you don't think my leukamia should be treated, you're more than welcome to sign us all up to BUPA, abolish the NHS, and consequences be damned.

[Serrland]

I was somewhat surprised that they started referring to each other by first name. If I recall correctly, Cameron did it first, followed by Brown, but I can't remember if Clegg did.

[SD_Film Artists]

I was somewhat surprised that they started referring to each other by first name. If I recall correctly, Cameron did it first, followed by Brown, but I can't remember if Clegg did.

Ah he was running more with the "those two old parties" *does hand gesture* line.

[Natapoc]

I'm not sure if this has been posted yet or not but political compass has an interesting take on the parties. I'm not sure how it is possible for them to place some of them quite so high the authoritarian scale:



http://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010

[SD_Film Artists]

I'm not sure if this has been posted yet or not but political compass has an interesting take on the parties. I'm not sure how it is possible for them to place some of them quite so high the authoritarian scale:



http://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010

And according to that I should be supporting Plaid Cymru rather than the Lib Dems.

[Natapoc]

I'm not sure if this has been posted yet or not but political compass has an interesting take on the parties. I'm not sure how it is possible for them to place some of them quite so high the authoritarian scale:



http://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010

And according to that I should be supporting Plaid Cymru rather than the Lib Dems.

Do you speak welsh?

[Serrland]

Interesting to see how according to that graph the SNP comes out as the most centrist party.

[Angleter]

Just saw the end of the debate on C4 News: Brown immediately breaks the rules and gets down to shake hands with the crowd, Clegg goes to follow him before being pulled back and reminded by Cameron that you're not meant to do that, and Brown looks like a total prat shaking everyone's hands while Cameron and Clegg stay on the stage.

Also, did anyone see Pointless today: 'Simon Clegg'? As Richard said, going for Clegg in the belief that people wouldn't remember the current leader's name was a good idea.

[Angleter]

I'm not sure if this has been posted yet or not but political compass has an interesting take on the parties. I'm not sure how it is possible for them to place some of them quite so high the authoritarian scale:



http://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010

Not sure how UKIP get to be more authoritarian than the Conservatives.

[North Suran]

I'm not sure if this has been posted yet or not but political compass has an interesting take on the parties. I'm not sure how it is possible for them to place some of them quite so high the authoritarian scale:

http://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010

Somehow, I doubt the accuracy of a chart that puts the Liberal Democrats on the Right-wing of the spectrum.