UK General Election 2010

[Helertia]

Nah Brown seems to have come out worse on the polls.

They've changed their mind now anyway. Apparently Clegg 'may' emerge as a victor.

I think Brown did rather well, considering that it's always harder for the government in power in that they actually have to come up with ideas that work, as opposed to "We'll cut tax and raise funding and that will cut the deficit!"

The reason he's coming off worse in the polls is everyone is obviously saying the person they want to win the election won the debate.

[Getbrett]

Nah Brown seems to have come out worse on the polls.

They've changed their mind now anyway. Apparently Clegg 'may' emerge as a victor.

I think Brown did rather well, considering that it's always harder for the government in power in that they actually have to come up with ideas that work, as opposed to "We'll cut tax and raise funding and that will cut the deficit!"

The reason he's coming off worse in the polls is everyone is obviously saying the person they want to win the election won the debate.

Then why has Nick Clegg done so well?

[Helertia]

Nah Brown seems to have come out worse on the polls.

They've changed their mind now anyway. Apparently Clegg 'may' emerge as a victor.

I think Brown did rather well, considering that it's always harder for the government in power in that they actually have to come up with ideas that work, as opposed to "We'll cut tax and raise funding and that will cut the deficit!"

The reason he's coming off worse in the polls is everyone is obviously saying the person they want to win the election won the debate.

Then why has Nick Clegg done so well?

Oh shush you XD. Exaggeration, everyone is not voting the person they want to win as the winner. But a lot of people certainly will, and I think we can all agree that Nick Clegg did the best tonight

[SD_Film Artists]

Nah Brown seems to have come out worse on the polls.

They've changed their mind now anyway. Apparently Clegg 'may' emerge as a victor.

I think Brown did rather well, considering that it's always harder for the government in power in that they actually have to come up with ideas that work, as opposed to "We'll cut tax and raise funding and that will cut the deficit!"

The reason he's coming off worse in the polls is everyone is obviously saying the person they want to win the election won the debate.

Then why has Nick Clegg done so well?

Indeed. If some of the debate polls directly turned into vote shares then the Lib Dems would have an outright majority.

Edit: Ah ninja'd

[Lacadaemon]

I think Brown did rather well, considering that it's always harder for the government in power in that they actually have to come up with ideas that work, as opposed to "We'll cut tax and raise funding and that will cut the deficit!"

The reason he's coming off worse in the polls is everyone is obviously saying the person they want to win the election won the debate.

After 13 years in power, governments are usually well past their sell by date.

[Helertia]

I think Brown did rather well, considering that it's always harder for the government in power in that they actually have to come up with ideas that work, as opposed to "We'll cut tax and raise funding and that will cut the deficit!"

The reason he's coming off worse in the polls is everyone is obviously saying the person they want to win the election won the debate.

After 13 years in power, governments are usually well past their sell by date.

One Government is stale, and the one we're replacing it with is pulling money from nowhere. Quite a feat.

[Lacadaemon]

One Government is stale, and the one we're replacing it with is pulling money from nowhere. Quite a feat.

It's not that I think that it's impossible for Labour to win. A hung parliament is most likely now (if you believe the polls), and any number of things could happen between now and the election.

It's more that after 13 years of Labour, people are a bit sick of them, so the incumbent is going to be a bit unlikeable to the general public. I don't recall John Major being massively popular in 1992 either. (He just had the good fortune to have Neil Kinnock as the leader of the Labour party).

And Cameron has his own problems.

[Devonshire County]

Nick Clegg has certainly done well. I really do hope they become the kingmakers

[Helertia]

One Government is stale, and the one we're replacing it with is pulling money from nowhere. Quite a feat.

It's not that I think that it's impossible for Labour to win. A hung parliament is most likely now (if you believe the polls), and any number of things could happen between now and the election.

It's more that after 13 years of Labour, people are a bit sick of them, so the incumbent is going to be a bit unlikeable to the general public. I don't recall John Major being massively popular in 1992 either. (He just had the good fortune to have Neil Kinnock as the leader of the Labour party).

And Cameron has his own problems.

A bit sick of them? If this was an election for a completely new Government, Cameron would barely get above 10% let alone pose a threat to the major players.

[Lacadaemon]

One Government is stale, and the one we're replacing it with is pulling money from nowhere. Quite a feat.

It's not that I think that it's impossible for Labour to win. A hung parliament is most likely now (if you believe the polls), and any number of things could happen between now and the election.

It's more that after 13 years of Labour, people are a bit sick of them, so the incumbent is going to be a bit unlikeable to the general public. I don't recall John Major being massively popular in 1992 either. (He just had the good fortune to have Neil Kinnock as the leader of the Labour party).

And Cameron has his own problems.

A bit sick of them? If this was an election for a completely new Government, Cameron would barely get above 10% let alone pose a threat to the major players.

Well look, if it was a national popularity contest, Gordon wouldn't do any better either. Probably worse, since everyone knows him.

And it is sort of an election for a completely new Government. Though I don't think either of them are particularly strong candidates for higher office. Cameron because he's a prat, and Gordon because he really doesn't know what he is doing. Smart man and all, but he should have been in academia.

[Chumblywumbly]

Oh, and now James Purnell is on This Week.

(Though iPLayer is being a bitch.)

[Johz]

Nick Clegg has certainly done well. I really do hope they become the kingmakers

It would be interesting if they actually ended up as - at least metaphorically - the kings. Hell, the NS poll agrees with me, as does the debates. While I am not as naive as to think that the Lib Dems could actually win this election outright, I wonder if we are starting to see a major change in our traditional two horse politics. I would like to see that.

[Charlotte Ryberg]

I watched the whole election debate drama last night and I think my votes may be predicting a three way coalition after all. Either way, Labour is still out to some extent: still hasn't convinced me.

BTW, the debate looked a bit like the Krypton Factor: they should have thrown in the assault course and the intelligence test... and Gordon Burns:

"And our man from Downing Street, he's running but he's not getting that far enough... As for Mr Cameron... our boy in blue, well he's still got some catching up to do there and Mr Clegg in yellow, just a bit further ahead of Cameron but with a Krypton Factor of 47, it's our host Alastair Stewart from London!"

[Serrland]

I vote for Terry Wogan to host a debate...

[Kulverint]

Nick Clegg is trending above both other leaders on Twitter.

And Lib Dems are trending above Cameron.

EDIT: Aww, what; I'm missing Outnumbered because of this...

I turned off at 9:30 to watch it. I'd already got the message of the debate, and I already had the results in my mind. The results were in the same order as they were standing:

1: Nick Clegg
2: David Cameron
3: Gordon Brown

[Angleter]

I had watched some, but turned to Outnumbered when Brown began an Afghanistan question with "well, let me start by saying that I have the utmost respect for our armed forces..."

I doubt he knew the irony of what he was saying. General result: Clegg-Cameron-Brown, as expected.

[The Archregimancy]

And here's the morning after media verdict....

Every independent opinion poll that I've seen shows that Nick Clegg won the debate.

All of the broadsheets, the Guardian, Independent, Times and - yes - even the Telegraph, believe that Clegg won the debate - and have said as much with big front page headlines. Again, even the Telegraph admits as much.

The tabloids are trying to pretend the debate didn't happen (the volcano gives them an excuse), but the Sun's hand-picked focus group thinks Clegg won the debate fairly handily, a story which was given heavy coverage on Radio 4 this morning.

Peter Mandelson has openly admitted Clegg won the debate (though this is probably part of Labour's broader LibDem love-in strategy).

Even David Cameron has grudgingly admitted that "Nick Clegg had a good debate".

I think that Labour and the Conservatives now find themselves in a bit of a bind. Do they take the traditional route of stating that the election is just between the two of them, thereby hoping to sideline Clegg, but potentially allowing him to avoid any serious attacks on LibDem policies? Or do they start firing the big guns at the LibDems, thereby running the risk of acknowledging that the third party is more important than they've previously claimed?

It should be acknowledged that in a Westminster system, unlike with a presidential system, there's no guarantee that a debate victory of this nature will translate into either votes or seats on the ground. We still vote for parties, not party leaders, and there's simply no British electoral precedent for what happened last night. But I do think that the chances of a hung parliament increased last night; ah well... the phenomenon doesn't seem to have hurt the German economy.


I do admit to being a Lib Dem voter, but in fact this had little impact on how I interpreted the debate. Perhaps it's because I listened on the radio, and therefore was having a Nixon moment, but I thought Gordon Brown did fairly well on substance, that Cameron sounded far too cynically scripted (a "black man in Plymouth told me immigration was out of control" - non-racist, check; immigration, check; southwest, check), and that Clegg struggled at times, but at least sounded reasonably comfortable after a poor opening statement.

I'm not complaining, however, that those who watched on television disagree with me.

[Tomland Union]

I vote for Terry Wogan to host a debate...

same here

it will be like eurovision

[Lacadaemon]

I think that Labour and the Conservatives now find themselves in a bit of a bind. Do they take the traditional route of stating that the election is just between the two of them, thereby hoping to sideline Clegg.

Yes. They have to. The last thing that either the Torys or Labour can do is draw attention to Clegg and Cable. It's electoral poison for both of them.

I'm not complaining, however, that those who watched on television disagree with me.

Being in the US, I listened to it on radio 4. I am a traditional Tory voter type, and so have an inbuilt antipathy to the Liberal party. I still think that Clegg was the clear winner.

[Georgism]

I vote for Terry Wogan to host a debate...

same here

it will be like eurovision

Oh, the horror Are you saying that Eastern European votes will be very important in this election?

[SD_Film Artists]

I vote for Terry Wogan to host a debate...

same here

it will be like eurovision

Oh, the horror

So you're saying that you don't want to see the three leaders in sequins while singing an impossibly camp song in an impossibly camp way?

[Georgism]

I vote for Terry Wogan to host a debate...

same here

it will be like eurovision

Oh, the horror

So you're saying that you don't want to see the three leaders in sequins while singing an impossibly camp song in an impossibly camp way?

On second thoughts, this could be awesome.

[The Archregimancy]

ComRes/ITV have just released the first post-debate poll on voting intentions.

I stress that this is not a poll regarding who won the debate. It is an actual post-debate poll on voting intention.


Conservatives - 36% (-3)

Liberal Democrats - 35% (+14)

Labour - 24% (-3)

Others - 5% (-8)


Somebody pinch me.

And just so we can all have a confirming right-of-centre source...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/liberaldemocrats/7597522/Liberal-Democrats-surge-after-Nick-Cleggs-TV-debate-performance.html

[Tagmatium]

It's really going to come down to the wire, isn't it?

[The Archregimancy]

It's really going to come down to the wire, isn't it?

Much will depend on how reliable that ComRes poll is, and if reliable whether that increased LibDem support holds up through the subsequent two debates. My initial interpretation is that most of the increased support is being hoovered up from protest vote fringe party support.


But if that poll is even halfway reliable, I no longer think this...

I think that Labour and the Conservatives now find themselves in a bit of a bind. Do they take the traditional route of stating that the election is just between the two of them, thereby hoping to sideline Clegg.

They have to. The last thing that either the Torys or Labour can do is draw attention to Clegg and Cable. It's electoral poison for both of them.

...is a viable strategy for the Conservatives and Labour. Indeed, initial reaction suggests that they've already started training their big guns on the LibDems.


For the record, assuming a uniform swing, according to the BBC's election seat calculator, the above poll result would give us:

Conservatives - 289 seats

Labour - 187 seats

Liberal Democrats - 144 seats

Other - 27 seats (of which 18 are in Northern Ireland)