Catalonia Megathread: Should Catalonia Separate From Spain?

[Socialist Czechia]

I'm sure there are worse places to find a job. Like Somalia.

Glad you mentioned that.

There, Republic of Somaliland is also not recognized by anyone, and ironically, it's the only state in Horn of Africa which actually works: and more democratic and less corrupted than Ethiopia.

While officially, internationally recognized Somalia is and will be a mess.

So, recognition means shit.

[Shofercia]

No problem.

call me when you work in an investment bank

Working for 80 hours a week is rather dumb. IMHO. I'd rather work 40-60 and pay less taxes. I could also tell you to call me when you're a millionaire.

0.13% not 0.15%

consider a change of career mate, that's basic maths.

You do realize that actually hurts the point you were trying to make, right? I was the one who noted that for a population of 7.5 million, a workforce of 2 million would be quite low. Then again, that requires understanding of basic economics. Didn't stop you from making that claim. See, anyone can punch in two numbers into a calculator; noting that 2 million is not going to be the workforce for a place of 7.5 million, that takes actual skill.

use incognito or buy what is a respectable newspaper

So you don't have a source.

that's not how it works.

Well yeah, the overall savings from being rid of Madrid's budget would probably be greater than $8 billion. I was being nice.

Around 85% of SEAT cars are exported from Spain, and I'm willing to bet my house that the 15% that are not are overwhelmingly sold in Spain, not Catalonia.

Ok, so thus far you managed to find a loss of 18,000 jobs. Still below that 2% figure.

Source? (one explicitly stating that this is not aid)

And where do you think they will get revolving credit facilities from?

Perhaps Russia, the same place as Abkhazia?

https://web.archive.org/web/20140202183 ... /6859.html

Основными торговыми партнерами Абхазии продолжают оставаться Россия и Турция, на долю которых приходится 82% всего товарооборота (64% - Россия и 18%- Турция). На долю остальных стран приходятся оставшиеся 18% (страны Прибалтики - 5%, Молдова - 2%, Германия - 2%, Украина - 1%, Китай - 1%; в товарообороте республики общая доля стран, занимающих менее 1%, составляет 7%).

You do know how to use Google translate, right?

In GOODS.

SERVICES cannot be traded

A DEVELOPED ECONOMY trades in SERVICES

Here are the exports of Spain: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... reemap.png

Please show me how 50% or more of said exports are services. And then, using that very same logic, explain to me how 50% or more of Taiwan's exports are goods.

Your opinion is not fact.

Neither is yours.

No just 97%.

Sounds like a made up number.

[Shofercia]

Population fell by 34% in 20 years. In Moldova it fell by 26%. Also, the fall in population was partially due to the Civil War. In Ukraine it fell by 21%. But chin up - at least they're not Communist!

"Finding that their qualifications are worthless, many students leave the country. They move to Moldova or Russia, the only countries that will admit them. But it is not only young people who are affected by migration. Between 1989 and 2014, Transnistria went from having 750,000 inhabitants to only 450,000, mostly due to the lack of jobs."

((750000-450000)/750000)*100= 40% decline

Minus the people who commute to work outside of the country or live outside the country the majority of the time but call Transnitnsitnira home (75k) we're down to 375k people.

((750000-375000)/750000)*100=50% decline

I used actual demographics: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Население_Приднестровской_Молдавской_Республики

((712500-470600)/712500)*100 = 34%. Please tell me that you're actually not dumb enough to believe that the population declined by exactly 300,000 people, just because some article made that claim. You also said in 20 years. 2017-20 years = 1997. Being nice, I used 1993. You opted to use 1989. You do realize that 2017 - 20 is not going to be 1989, right?

Also:

population has fallen by 60% in 20 years

50% decline

Don't worry, I'm sure you'll get it right on the third try. 10% of the population, what's that? Not much for an investment banker, amirite?

[Shofercia]

I know that anti-russian comments are popular like in times of Crimean War or Cold War, but can it be without lying?

What lies have I told about that place?

You just claimed that the population declined by 60%, when the actual number is closer to 30%. It's ok, population statistics aren't for everyone to understand.

Are you contesting the statistical facts that Transistria is poorer per person than Zimbabwe, has a HIV prevalence rate similar to Congo and an infant mortality on par with the African average, as well as one of the highest illiteracy rates in the world?

Why don't I start by contesting the literacy rate, since USSR's was at 99%. Also, the claim about HIV, please source it.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

So China won't trade with it? Africa won't trade with it? Latin America won't trade with it? C'mon - don't be ridiculous.

I honestly don't see many Latin American countries dealing with Catalonia's trade.

Maybe countries like Venezuela and Cuba, but come on now.

[Magnus Germania]

In my opinion, no.

[Trumptonium]

You do realize that actually hurts the point you were trying to make, right? I was the one who noted that for a population of 7.5 million, a workforce of 2 million would be quite low. Then again, that requires understanding of basic economics. Didn't stop you from making that claim. See, anyone can punch in two numbers into a calculator; noting that 2 million is not going to be the workforce for a place of 7.5 million, that takes actual skill.

Discounting the seasonal tourism work (875000) it's closer to my original claim of 2 million.
https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/repo ... in2017.pdf

So you don't have a source.

I do. I gave you it, in a link.

Ok, so thus far you managed to find a loss of 18,000 jobs. Still below that 2% figure.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/09/the-com ... ainty.html

Inmobiliaria Colonial

Real estate firm Inmobiliaria Colonial agreed Monday to relocate of its head offices outside of Catalonia. Employees: 10763

Abertis

The infrastructure company decided Monday to move its head offices outside of Catalonia. Employees: 16500

Cellnex

The Spanish telecoms firm Cellnex also approved Monday to move from Barcelona to Madrid. Employees: 1335

Dogi International Fabrics

The textile firm said Friday that it will leave Catalonia and place its headquarters in Madrid, La Vanguardia reported. Employees: 320

Service Point

The reprographics company said Friday that it will move its headquarters from Barcelona to Madrid, 20 minutos reported. Employees: 130

Freixenet and Cordoníu

Prosecco and wine-makers Freixenet and Cordoníu are both looking at relocating their offices but a decision hasn't been taken as of yet. Employees: 1260

Oryzon

The biotech firm saw its shares jump last week after announcing a decision to move its headquarters from Barcelona to Madrid. Employees: 135 at University of Barcelona only (rest unknown)

Eurona

The satellite broadband Eurona announced last week that its headquarters will move from Barcelona to Madrid. Employees: 280

-------------
and that's just from 2 weeks ago
and that's before the announcement and tenfold more uncertainty
and that's just those floating on the stock market, not including private large companies
and that doesn't include the supply chain.

so we're at 48 000 jobs. maybe 50% add-on (conservatively) for the supply chain, so circling 75k. and that's just companies who already announced it 2 weeks ago.

https://web.archive.org/web/20140202183029/http://apsnypress.info/news/6859.html

Основными торговыми партнерами Абхазии продолжают оставаться Россия и Турция, на долю которых приходится 82% всего товарооборота (64% - Россия и 18%- Турция). На долю остальных стран приходятся оставшиеся 18% (страны Прибалтики - 5%, Молдова - 2%, Германия - 2%, Украина - 1%, Китай - 1%; в товарообороте республики общая доля стран, занимающих менее 1%, составляет 7%).

You do know how to use Google translate, right?

I said one that does not explicitly state that this is not aid.

North Korea 'trades' with the US. In aid. Worth about $2m.

Here are the exports of Spain: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... reemap.png

Please show me how 50% or more of said exports are services. And then, using that very same logic, explain to me how 50% or more of Taiwan's exports are goods.

This is a treemap of goods exports.

According to your logic, the UK doesn't have a multinational banking sector, and all that money that comes in is just magic .. because .. you know .. it doesn't show up on a treemap, as that's not their purpose.

No just 97%.

Sounds like a made up number.

[/quote]

More than half of Catalan exports go to the EU, a place that will instantly near-embargo them as a result of Franco-Spanish pressure. https://h2bcn-semlondon.netdna-ssl.com/ ... raphic.png

[Shofercia]

So China won't trade with it? Africa won't trade with it? Latin America won't trade with it? C'mon - don't be ridiculous.

I honestly don't see many Latin American countries dealing with Catalonia's trade.

Maybe countries like Venezuela and Cuba, but come on now.

To be honest, if Spain didn't attempt to squash it, we wouldn't be where we are today. Latin America might be open to trade.

[Trumptonium]

i can't be bothered to argue anymore so i'll leave you with this (very) conservative estimate that catalonia's gdp will receive a -30% hit on a favourable situation

and also 35% of catalan 'exports' are actually to spain, so good luck going through with those

[Lord of The Rings]

I have no idea on how trustworthy the Express is but it reported that a Finnish politician intends to submit a motion for Finland to recognize Catalonia.

Mr Karna's Twitter feed suggests a personal agenda rather than the likelihood that this is official Finnish government policy,

I see. I searched him up on Google earlier but couldn't find a wiki page in English so I already doubted his influence in the government of Finland.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

I honestly don't see many Latin American countries dealing with Catalonia's trade.

Maybe countries like Venezuela and Cuba, but come on now.

To be honest, if Spain didn't attempt to squash it, we wouldn't be where we are today. Latin America might be open to trade.

Hm. See, my only objection to that is that we have bigger trade deals with Spain than we do with its independent regions.

With Spain we enjoy around 6% of its exports and we received about 30% of a total of 1.9 billion dollars in foreign aid from them across the region. And they have sent aid to numerous countries in Latin America. A lot of countries also have deals with the EU, and the leading EU countries are against this.

Catalonia can only produce 25% of Spanish output. And were we to trade with Catalonia, we risk pissing off Rajoy's government and losing all the above money.

See, Latin America might be divided in opinion about Catalonia between the left and the right (although in that matter I don't know, I haven't checked Latin American news in a while), but we're not stupid to risk cutting off trade and foreign aid from Spain and the EU when the problem doesn't even involve us.

[Lord of The Rings]

Well, it's too late now- Catalonia has declared independence.

So did the Confederate States of America, Biafra, and Katanga.

I'm sure the Court of Saint James is looking forward to receiving their latest ambassadors any moment now.

The point is that a declaration of independence is not, and never has been, a guarantee that independence will subsequently be achieved.

Well it is always achieved as what happens when independence is declared. Whether it lasts long enough to achieve de facto and de jure independence is a different story...

[Shofercia]

You do realize that actually hurts the point you were trying to make, right? I was the one who noted that for a population of 7.5 million, a workforce of 2 million would be quite low. Then again, that requires understanding of basic economics. Didn't stop you from making that claim. See, anyone can punch in two numbers into a calculator; noting that 2 million is not going to be the workforce for a place of 7.5 million, that takes actual skill.

Discounting the seasonal tourism work (875000) it's closer to my original claim of 2 million.
https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/repo ... in2017.pdf

It's very important to read your own sources. The number you cite for tourism is for all of Spain. Not just Catalonia. And it doesn't say that it's seasonal.

So you don't have a source.

I do. I gave you it, in a link.

So the only source out there is behind a paywall. No other source exists. Riiight.

Ok, so thus far you managed to find a loss of 18,000 jobs. Still below that 2% figure.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/09/the-com ... ainty.html

Is this where you pretend that instead of just moving their HQ, they'll move all of their employees?

Inmobiliaria Colonial

Real estate firm Inmobiliaria Colonial agreed Monday to relocate of its head offices outside of Catalonia. Employees: 10763

Abertis

The infrastructure company decided Monday to move its head offices outside of Catalonia. Employees: 16500

Cellnex

The Spanish telecoms firm Cellnex also approved Monday to move from Barcelona to Madrid. Employees: 1335

Dogi International Fabrics

The textile firm said Friday that it will leave Catalonia and place its headquarters in Madrid, La Vanguardia reported. Employees: 320

Service Point

The reprographics company said Friday that it will move its headquarters from Barcelona to Madrid, 20 minutos reported. Employees: 130

Freixenet and Cordoníu

Prosecco and wine-makers Freixenet and Cordoníu are both looking at relocating their offices but a decision hasn't been taken as of yet. Employees: 1260

Oryzon

The biotech firm saw its shares jump last week after announcing a decision to move its headquarters from Barcelona to Madrid. Employees: 135 at University of Barcelona only (rest unknown)

Eurona

The satellite broadband Eurona announced last week that its headquarters will move from Barcelona to Madrid. Employees: 280

Yep! Called it. Also, if Catalonia is independent, wouldn't they have their own infrastructure projects? Thus finding a place for those 16,500 employees.

and that's just from 2 weeks ago
and that's before the announcement and tenfold more uncertainty
and that's just those floating on the stock market, not including private large companies
and that doesn't include the supply chain.

so we're at 48 000 jobs. maybe 50% add-on (conservatively) for the supply chain, so circling 75k. and that's just companies who already announced it 2 weeks ago.

Again, out of those 48,000 jobs, 16,500 are infrastructure jobs, and another 8,000-10,000 are local real estate. You're really not getting this, are you?

https://web.archive.org/web/20140202183029/http://apsnypress.info/news/6859.html



You do know how to use Google translate, right?

I said one that does not explicitly state that this is not aid.

It explicitly said "trade partners" not "aid partners". Also - Ukraine sending aid to Abkhazia

Here are the exports of Spain: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... reemap.png

Please show me how 50% or more of said exports are services. And then, using that very same logic, explain to me how 50% or more of Taiwan's exports are goods.

This is a treemap of goods exports.

According to your logic, the UK doesn't have a multinational banking sector, and all that money that comes in is just magic .. because .. you know .. it doesn't show up on a treemap, as that's not their purpose.

Again, show me that 50% of Spain's exports are services; then, using the same logic, show me that 50% of Taiwan's exports are goods. That was your claim. Defend it. If you don't like the export tree - don't use it.

Sounds like a made up number.

More than half of Catalan exports go to the EU, a place that will instantly near-embargo them as a result of Franco-Spanish pressure. https://h2bcn-semlondon.netdna-ssl.com/ ... raphic.png

So you went from 100% to 97% to slightly less than half. Wow, you're making progress!

[Shofercia]

To be honest, if Spain didn't attempt to squash it, we wouldn't be where we are today. Latin America might be open to trade.

Hm. See, my only objection to that is that we have bigger trade deals with Spain than we do with its independent regions.

With Spain we enjoy around 6% of its exports and we received about 30% of a total of 1.9 billion dollars in foreign aid from them across the region. And they have sent aid to numerous countries in Latin America. A lot of countries also have deals with the EU, and the leading EU countries are against this.

Catalonia can only produce 25% of Spanish output. And were we to trade with Catalonia, we risk pissing off Rajoy's government and losing all the above money.

See, Latin America might be divided in opinion about Catalonia between the left and the right (although in that matter I don't know, I haven't checked Latin American news in a while), but we're not stupid to risk cutting off trade and foreign aid from Spain and the EU when the problem doesn't even involve us.

If the EU actually carries out a full blown embargo against Catalonia, the independence will fail. But that would require phenomenal organization from the EU - which I doubt that the EU has. And by full blown embargo, I mean not just avoiding trade with Catalonia, but also not trading with those who trade with Catalonia.

But if the EU doesn't do that - why wouldn't you trade with Catalonia? Rajoy's Government would have to swallow their pride, because without Catalonia - they'd need all the economic help they can get.

[Shofercia]

i can't be bothered to argue anymore so i'll leave you with this (very) conservative estimate that catalonia's gdp will receive a -30% hit on a favourable situation

and also 35% of catalan 'exports' are actually to spain, so good luck going through with those

That claim comes from the Spanish Minister of Finance, who's very much against the secession. Do you not see how he might be just a tad biased?

Business Insider has a much more interesting perspective: http://www.businessinsider.com/economic ... ain-2016-2

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Hm. See, my only objection to that is that we have bigger trade deals with Spain than we do with its independent regions.

With Spain we enjoy around 6% of its exports and we received about 30% of a total of 1.9 billion dollars in foreign aid from them across the region. And they have sent aid to numerous countries in Latin America. A lot of countries also have deals with the EU, and the leading EU countries are against this.

Catalonia can only produce 25% of Spanish output. And were we to trade with Catalonia, we risk pissing off Rajoy's government and losing all the above money.

See, Latin America might be divided in opinion about Catalonia between the left and the right (although in that matter I don't know, I haven't checked Latin American news in a while), but we're not stupid to risk cutting off trade and foreign aid from Spain and the EU when the problem doesn't even involve us.

If the EU actually carries out a full blown embargo against Catalonia, the independence will fail. But that would require phenomenal organization from the EU - which I doubt that the EU has. And by full blown embargo, I mean not just avoiding trade with Catalonia, but also not trading with those who trade with Catalonia.

But if the EU doesn't do that - why wouldn't you trade with Catalonia? Rajoy's Government would have to swallow their pride, because without Catalonia - they'd need all the economic help they can get.

That would depend on how obstinate Rajoy's government gets in keeping Catalonia a shithole though. One thing Spaniards and Latin Americans have in common is our pride. NAS (Not A Spaniard) but Rajoy's pride, and that of Spain, is surely wounded by now and wants to get retribution at Catalonia, even while being diplomatic about it and invoking Article 155. Right now any Latin American country would be making a mistake to side with Catalonia aside from Cuba and Venezuela (and that's mostly because they have nothing to lose). We'd have to see and wait what Rajoy and the Spanish government is going to do about Catalonia's trade and trade partners before doing anything.

[Socialist Czechia]

I don't know why Spaniards act so surprised, as much as the rest of westerners, to be honest.
New countries are popping out of Europe all the time (be it 'good ones' like Crna Gora, 'bad ones' like Transnistria or questionable like Kosovo), autonomies are becoming so wide and usual that soon it will be like in Switzerland where every valley is micronation...
So they not only could expected it, they should.

Did they think that such things are okay and possible only in Balkans or Russia? No, they can happen literally anywhere, anytime. Get use to it.

[Iberian Kingdom]

This discussion seems to miss the point:

The elections in question are the focal point from which everything else matters. The vote for independence resulted in 90% of people voting to leave Spain-with a total turnout of ~43%.

I say around because the disruption of this election by the Spanish police (1,000 injured, many ballot stations closed/boxes seized) makes any sort of estimate based off of the vote as to whether the region wants to leave Spain or not quite difficult. Had the election proceeded peacefully without interference, we would have more trustworthy numbers to work with.

I believe the UN states that all people have a right to self-determination. Thus we come to the fulcrum of the question; if a majority of Catalans voted to leave Spain, then yes, it should be a separate state. If not, it remains.

Between the low turnout numbers and the high "yes" vote, it is impossible to tell what the people of this region decisively want. Low turnout indicates this could be only the voice of a dedicated minority; however with such disruption by Spanish authorities it is impossible to tell if this is a true turnout number or one artificially lowered via heavy-handed government action.


Source for stats:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29478415

[Thermodolia]

This discussion seems to miss the point:

The elections in question are the focal point from which everything else matters. The vote for independence resulted in 90% of people voting to leave Spain-with a total turnout of ~43%.

I say around because the disruption of this election by the Spanish police (1,000 injured, many ballot stations closed/boxes seized) makes any sort of estimate based off of the vote as to whether the region wants to leave Spain or not quite difficult. Had the election proceeded peacefully without interference, we would have more trustworthy numbers to work with.

I believe the UN states that all people have a right to self-determination. Thus we come to the fulcrum of the question; if a majority of Catalans voted to leave Spain, then yes, it should be a separate state. If not, it remains.

Between the low turnout numbers and the high "yes" vote, it is impossible to tell what the people of this region decisively want. Low turnout indicates this could be only the voice of a dedicated minority; however with such disruption by Spanish authorities it is impossible to tell if this is a true turnout number or one artificially lowered via heavy-handed government action.


Source for stats:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29478415

Nobody gives a shit what the UN says. They can't enforce anything

[Thermodolia]

Mr Karna's Twitter feed suggests a personal agenda rather than the likelihood that this is official Finnish government policy,

I see. I searched him up on Google earlier but couldn't find a wiki page in English so I already doubted his influence in the government of Finland.

Besides it's a moot point as the Finnish government has already refused to recognize Catalonia

[Mazujotai]

Me being an idealist in this: I like the idea of a Balkanized Europe that operates under a European Union heavily inspired by the current Swiss government model. So maybe Catalonian independence is a good thing because it allows a fairly distinct cultural-linguistic group to govern itself on its own terms.

Me being realistic on the matter: It's hypocritical of me to support American constitutionalism in the way that I do while completely disregarding Spanish constitutionalism. Spain has a right provided in its constitution to stripe away autonomy and Spain has been reacting to actions made by Catalonia and not really the other way around. While the way Spanish authorities handled the issue was abhorent it doesn't change the fact that Catalonia can not declare unilateral independence and if I supported catalonias right to I'd have to support the right of American states to do so which I do not. I can't defend Spain that much but they aren't exactly in the wrong but have handled the situation abysmally.

[Minoa]

Hm. See, my only objection to that is that we have bigger trade deals with Spain than we do with its independent regions.

With Spain we enjoy around 6% of its exports and we received about 30% of a total of 1.9 billion dollars in foreign aid from them across the region. And they have sent aid to numerous countries in Latin America. A lot of countries also have deals with the EU, and the leading EU countries are against this.

Catalonia can only produce 25% of Spanish output. And were we to trade with Catalonia, we risk pissing off Rajoy's government and losing all the above money.

See, Latin America might be divided in opinion about Catalonia between the left and the right (although in that matter I don't know, I haven't checked Latin American news in a while), but we're not stupid to risk cutting off trade and foreign aid from Spain and the EU when the problem doesn't even involve us.

If the EU actually carries out a full blown embargo against Catalonia, the independence will fail. But that would require phenomenal organization from the EU - which I doubt that the EU has. And by full blown embargo, I mean not just avoiding trade with Catalonia, but also not trading with those who trade with Catalonia.

But if the EU doesn't do that - why wouldn't you trade with Catalonia? Rajoy's Government would have to swallow their pride, because without Catalonia - they'd need all the economic help they can get.

Sanctions against Catalonia may only make the whole thing worse.

Right now, my sole official opinion is that all parties (pro-independence and pro-unity) should take part in the 21 December election and size up the situation on where a majority of the voters really stand: then work out a peace deal from there.

I have a deep affection for Catalonia for its unique and witty identity (thanks Gaudí), but not like this.

[Phoenicaea]

@Iberian Kingdon, referendum can t be seen as valid and clean, not as clean as a regoular vote, not someone's fault. that s the legal which is the determining question, nevertheless the thing which lasts is the true voluntee of people to be Spain or to leave instead.

After the declaration, it may last few or lot of time, perhaps some years, 10, 50 years, nevertheless if the voluntee to be leave, an other and this time valid referendum can be held.
Precedents in Western Europe say, once a republic is decleared, and if there is effective choiche of the people, even if it is retired after, at the end it will be indipendent republic. not officially today, still it will be as the path has been tracked

[Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States]

This discussion seems to miss the point:

The elections in question are the focal point from which everything else matters. The vote for independence resulted in 90% of people voting to leave Spain-with a total turnout of ~43%.

I say around because the disruption of this election by the Spanish police (1,000 injured, many ballot stations closed/boxes seized) makes any sort of estimate based off of the vote as to whether the region wants to leave Spain or not quite difficult. Had the election proceeded peacefully without interference, we would have more trustworthy numbers to work with.

I believe the UN states that all people have a right to self-determination. Thus we come to the fulcrum of the question; if a majority of Catalans voted to leave Spain, then yes, it should be a separate state. If not, it remains.

Between the low turnout numbers and the high "yes" vote, it is impossible to tell what the people of this region decisively want. Low turnout indicates this could be only the voice of a dedicated minority; however with such disruption by Spanish authorities it is impossible to tell if this is a true turnout number or one artificially lowered via heavy-handed government action.


Source for stats:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29478415

Nobody gives a shit what the UN says. They can't enforce anything

Well, the UN can enforce shit, and has enforced it in the past. The bigger problem is that the right he is referring to is a non-binding article in the UN charter which states the general purpose of the UN. Besides, article 2 section 7 of the UN charter forbids interference in purely internal affairs, which this is. Until Catalonia is actually independent.

[Liburia]

I am against Catalan independence but I think Spain should at least give them more autonomy. And for the current chaos both sides are to be blamed.