Catalonia Megathread: Should Catalonia Separate From Spain?

[The Conez Imperium]

Catalonia, in an independence scenario, would be completely disconnected from world financial markets, and would be predictably limited in the goods trading markets. Lines of credit would disappear, and Catalonia would only be able to pay what they already receive (and not a cent more), and what they receive will only decrease in time.

So China won't trade with it? Africa won't trade with it? Latin America won't trade with it? C'mon - don't be ridiculous.

The problem is not willingness, the problem is time and ability to do so without annoying another country. Any country trades because its beneficial (that's why we trade). However, trading with Catalonia will upset Spain which isn't a good move because if push comes to shove, Spain is more powerful than Catalonia.

As for the problem of time, every country would have to renegotiate trade deals from Spain to Catalonia - essentially starting from scratch. Imagine a teenager living in the house of his parents. He decides to leave and live independently in his own apartment. Suddenly, he realises he has to pay for electricity, water, gas, tenant rates - agreements previously arranged by his parents now have to be managed.

[Socialist Czechia]

Congratulations to Republic of Catalonia.
Don't worry no one likes you now. Politics. Look how tiny and pitiful is Transnistria compared to you, and it exists since 1992, not bothered.

International recognition is overrated.

[Catlander]

Congratulations to Republic of Catalonia.
Don't worry no one likes you now. Politics. Look how tiny and pitiful is Transnistria compared to you, and it exists since 1992, not bothered.

International recognition is overrated.

Thank you very much. It's a good advice.

[Socialist Czechia]

I mean, Transnistria was proclaimed and supported with help of russian divisions, but then again, Catalonia is not Eastern Europe and Spaniards are not Russians.

They will whine and moan like bitches, a lot, but honestly, it would surprise me if they tried civil war and gunning civilians shit.

[Bewhua]

Well, it's too late now- Catalonia has declared independence.

[Trumptonium]

That's not how the economy works.

Thanks there, expert.

You spoke of what, 4,000 jobs leaving Catalonia?

From one company over a period of 30 days.

Those 4k jobs alone account for 0.2% of jobs in Catalonia. Catalonia's unemployment has already increased by 0.6% in Q3'17. Predictions for Q4'17 are nearer to ~3% increase in unemployment (2008-like) and that's before we even count in today's declaration.

Can I see a source saying that Catalonia's workforce is just 2 million? [/quote]

My-not my fault. Got it from another website, whoever did it must have rounded up. 3 million

So circa 0.13%

Just for comparison purposes, in the US that would be a loss of 200k jobs.

1) The majority of these are moving away to the rest of Spain.

The majority of small and medium-sized enterprises are moving to Spain? Really now? Is there a source for that?

https://www.ft.com/content/e91df296-b00 ... 4?mhq5j=e5

I've already said that all 7 of the 7 companies that were on the Spanish stock market have already left the region, and will no longer pay tax there, and many are now moving jobs as well, like the biggest bank that I just referenced.

Yes, you've said that already. Not seeing how a 0.2%, or even a 2% rise in unemployment is going to hit Catalonia, considering that Catalonia is a net benefactor to Spain's budget.

.................................................?

What?

Some businesses, such as telecoms company Eurona and biotech firm Oryzon Genomics, have already announced plans to move their offices to other parts of Spain, leading to sharp rises in their share prices.

SEAT, the largest employer in Catalonia of 14 000 people and an exporter of half a million cars from Catalonia worth 8.7 billion euros, has secretly sent a letter to their employees noting their intention to leave the region if legal protections needs to be sought, in [url=https://uk.reuters.com/article/spain-politics-catalonia-volkswagen/vws-catalonia-based-unit-says-will-move-hq-if-legal-security-in-doubt-idUKE8N1FS01S[/url], after which share prices of VW (which own SEAT) have risen.

Ahh yes - SEAT might move from Catalonia - and lose their customers in Catalonia. Where have I seen this before? Oh yeah, "isolated" Russia. Companies "hurr durr", then realize they need the local market, and move back in.

Hahahahahahahahahahaha fuck me you've got to be joking

I'm not even going to grace this comment with a reply, sorry. You clearly either misunderstand SEAT's size, economics, or Catalonia's size.

Volkswagen today issued a statement it was 'closely monitoring what is happening politically in the region', and are widely expected to move their production facilities out of Spain very soon, having been revealed to be contacting the Czech government for a potential expansion of VW activities in the short term. Nissan issued a nearly identical statement, but haven't made any moves signifying their intention to move out, but are expected to do so anyway. Nobody wants to produce anything in a country disconnected from world markets. Why would you?

If said country can buy your products, and if it's disconnected, how else can you get your products to said country?

Catalonia won't have any exports because nobody recognises Catalonia. As incomes spiral down, they won't have any imports either. Of course 'any' is exaggerated, since North Korea still has imports, but hopefully you get the point.

Catalonia, in an independence scenario, would be completely disconnected from world financial markets, and would be predictably limited in the goods trading markets. Lines of credit would disappear, and Catalonia would only be able to pay what they already receive (and not a cent more), and what they receive will only decrease in time.

So China won't trade with it?

No. China opposes any form of infringement on territorial integrity. They've always vetoed anything violating this in the UN Security Council out of principle, including the Russian annexation of Crimea, which China to this date doesn't recognise.

You know - China doesn't trade with anybody that trades with Taiwan, right?

Except for America, they get a pass for being big and rich and nukey.

Liberia tried that once - they recognised Taiwan. China embargoed them and stopped all investments. Oops.

Africa won't trade with it?

Africa has little to offer.

Latin America won't trade with it? C'mon - don't be ridiculous.

Probably.

So I see your solution to a THRIVING CATALAN ECONOMY™ is trading with the economic powerhouses of Africa and Latin America.

Seems like a road to success.

[Shofercia]

So China won't trade with it? Africa won't trade with it? Latin America won't trade with it? C'mon - don't be ridiculous.

The problem is not willingness, the problem is time and ability to do so without annoying another country. Any country trades because its beneficial (that's why we trade). However, trading with Catalonia will upset Spain which isn't a good move because if push comes to shove, Spain is more powerful than Catalonia.

As for the problem of time, every country would have to renegotiate trade deals from Spain to Catalonia - essentially starting from scratch. Imagine a teenager living in the house of his parents. He decides to leave and live independently in his own apartment. Suddenly, he realises he has to pay for electricity, water, gas, tenant rates - agreements previously arranged by his parents now have to be managed.

True, but in our hypothetical, said teenager also pays a hefty rate to his parents to live there. Let's calculate the balance of payments. Catalonia is about a fifths of Spain's economy, with $246.4 billion Euros. The region loses 3.2 Euros per 100 Euros, assuming the same efficiency as Spain, even though Catalonia is more efficient locally. That means that Catalonia is subsidizing Spain, to the tune of roughly $8 billion Euros. The teenager in the hypothetical has the money; the teen just needs to get the apartment and make the payments.

[The Archregimancy]

Well, it's too late now- Catalonia has declared independence.

So did the Confederate States of America, Biafra, and Katanga.

I'm sure the Court of Saint James is looking forward to receiving their latest ambassadors any moment now.

The point is that a declaration of independence is not, and never has been, a guarantee that independence will subsequently be achieved.

[Socialist Czechia]

Congratulations to Republic of Catalonia.
Don't worry no one likes you now. Politics. Look how tiny and pitiful is Transnistria compared to you, and it exists since 1992, not bothered.

International recognition is overrated.

Thank you very much. It's a good advice.

It's sad that my government ignores you, considering that 99 years ago, our ancestors, in the end of October just as same, proclaimed Republic.

After 300 years of servitude, this day, we destroyed Habsburg and Austrian symbols and left corrupted inefective monarchy.
Don't you think Entente was happy about it: they were actually pissed, that we did it on our terms, although they made promises.

Then again, in same war, they made promises to Italy or Greece and fucked with them. Better to have self-determination in your hands.

[Thermodolia]

Whelp, Rajoy just dissolved their parliament. Now we see how many tanks it takes to arrest a revolution.

I think all of NATO would be more than willing to help.

No nation has supported Catalonia, as of this moment 26 nations refuse to recognize it, most of them are NATO, EU, or have their own independence movements

[Socialist Czechia]

Well, it's too late now- Catalonia has declared independence.

So did the Confederate States of America, Biafra, and Katanga.

I'm sure the Court of Saint James is looking forward to receiving their latest ambassadors any moment now.

The point is that a declaration of independence is not, and never has been, a guarantee that independence will subsequently be achieved.

If Kosovo and Transnistria can exist under their shitty circumstances, so can Catalonia.

Seriously, can you imagine Spaniards putting down rebellion in oldschool hardcore ways? With immense abhorrence?

[Thermodolia]

Catalonia has (had) way more powers than Scotland does today.

Simply false.

Catalonia's government doesn't have any rights, which is why Madrid can dissolve their parliament. The constitutions of Germany and the UK protect devolved governments, unlike Spain.

Germany is a federal republic. It has no devolved states

[Trumptonium]

Congratulations to Republic of Catalonia.
Don't worry no one likes you now. Politics. Look how tiny and pitiful is Transnistria compared to you, and it exists since 1992, not bothered.

International recognition is overrated.

Transnistria. That glorious thriving republic whose population has fallen by 60% in 20 years as people run away from poverty and unemployment, where half of young people are unemployed, the GDP per capita is in parity with that of the Republic of Zimbabwe, where one tenth of the population cannot read and write and with levels of child malnourishment similar to 19th century Europe.

Recipe for Success.

Who wouldn't want to be like Transnistria, the officially poorest, hungriest, least educated and least happy place in Europe? I don't know, they must be MAD.

Oh, did I mention that they have a HIV incidence similar to Congo and an infant mortality on parity with Africa?

[Shofercia]

That's not how the economy works.

Thanks there, expert.

No problem.

Can I see a source saying that Catalonia's workforce is just 2 million?

My-not my fault. Got it from another website, whoever did it must have rounded up.
3 million

As an economic expert, I should probably inform you, that if the workforce is 3 million, the loss of 4,000 jobs would amount to 0.15% not 0.2%.

Just for comparison purposes, in the US that would be a loss of 200k jobs.

And the amount of immigrants coming to the US looking for jobs was about 700 thousand. That's just as pointless as the 200 thousand comparison you made.

The majority of small and medium-sized enterprises are moving to Spain? Really now? Is there a source for that?

https://www.ft.com/content/e91df296-b00 ... 4?mhq5j=e5

Paywall. Try again.

Yes, you've said that already. Not seeing how a 0.2%, or even a 2% rise in unemployment is going to hit Catalonia, considering that Catalonia is a net benefactor to Spain's budget.

.................................................?

What?

Catalonia benefits Spain to the tune of $8 billion. 2% increase in unemployment would result in a loss of 60,000 jobs. Unless they're being paid $133 thousand per job, I'm not seeing how this would be a loss.

Ahh yes - SEAT might move from Catalonia - and lose their customers in Catalonia. Where have I seen this before? Oh yeah, "isolated" Russia. Companies "hurr durr", then realize they need the local market, and move back in.

Hahahahahahahahahahaha fuck me you've got to be joking

I'm not even going to grace this comment with a reply, sorry. You clearly either misunderstand SEAT's size, economics, or Catalonia's size.

14,000 employers. How many cars does said factory sell in Catalonia?

If said country can buy your products, and if it's disconnected, how else can you get your products to said country?

Catalonia won't have any exports because nobody recognises Catalonia. As incomes spiral down, they won't have any imports either. Of course 'any' is exaggerated, since North Korea still has imports, but hopefully you get the point.

You don't need to recognize a country to trade with it. Abkhazia trades with Turkey, Germany, China. Neither country recognizes Abkhazia.

So China won't trade with it?

No. China opposes any form of infringement on territorial integrity. They've always vetoed anything violating this in the UN Security Council out of principle, including the Russian annexation of Crimea, which China to this date doesn't recognise.

You know - China doesn't trade with anybody that trades with Taiwan, right?

Except for America, they get a pass for being big and rich and nukey.

Liberia tried that once - they recognised Taiwan. China embargoed them and stopped all investments. Oops.

Yes, I'm aware of Taiwan, and I know that China trades with Crimea just fine. They just don't officially trade with Crimea. China also trades with Abkhazia. And yeah - Liberia was punished for recognizing Taiwan. Not for being independent. You don't have to have official recognition to trade. That's ridiculous. US doesn't recognize Taiwan - and yet, US trades with Taiwan. You know who else does? China, Japan, Singapore...

Africa won't trade with it?

Africa has little to offer.

All of Africa? I disagree.

Latin America won't trade with it? C'mon - don't be ridiculous.

Probably.

So I see your solution to a THRIVING CATALAN ECONOMY™ is trading with the economic powerhouses of Africa and Latin America.

Seems like a road to success.

The economy will be tough. But claiming that Catalonia will be 100% isolated is ridiculous.

[Thermodolia]

So did the Confederate States of America, Biafra, and Katanga.

I'm sure the Court of Saint James is looking forward to receiving their latest ambassadors any moment now.

The point is that a declaration of independence is not, and never has been, a guarantee that independence will subsequently be achieved.

If Kosovo and Transnistria can exist under their shitty circumstances, so can Catalonia.

Seriously, can you imagine Spaniards putting down rebellion in oldschool hardcore ways? With immense abhorrence?

Ya but both of those nations are actually recognized. In Kosovo's case half the world recognizes them, in Transnistria's case Russian recognizes them. Nobody as of this moment recognizes Catalonia

[Trumptonium]

Thanks there, expert.

No problem.

call me when you work in an investment bank

My-not my fault. Got it from another website, whoever did it must have rounded up.
3 million

As an economic expert, I should probably inform you, that if the workforce is 3 million, the loss of 4,000 jobs would amount to 0.15% not 0.2%.

0.13% not 0.15%

consider a change of career mate, that's basic maths.

https://www.ft.com/content/e91df296-b00 ... 4?mhq5j=e5

Paywall. Try again.

use incognito or buy what is a respectable newspaper

.................................................?

What?

Catalonia benefits Spain to the tune of $8 billion. 2% increase in unemployment would result in a loss of 60,000 jobs. Unless they're being paid $133 thousand per job, I'm not seeing how this would be a loss.

As an economic expert,

that's not how it works.

Hahahahahahahahahahaha fuck me you've got to be joking

I'm not even going to grace this comment with a reply, sorry. You clearly either misunderstand SEAT's size, economics, or Catalonia's size.

14,000 employers. How many cars does said factory sell in Catalonia?

Around 85% of SEAT cars are exported from Spain, and I'm willing to bet my house that the 15% that are not are overwhelmingly sold in Spain, not Catalonia.

Catalonia won't have any exports because nobody recognises Catalonia. As incomes spiral down, they won't have any imports either. Of course 'any' is exaggerated, since North Korea still has imports, but hopefully you get the point.

You don't need to recognize a country to trade with it. Abkhazia trades with Turkey, Germany, China. Neither country recognizes Abkhazia.

Source? (one explicitly stating that this is not aid)

And where do you think they will get revolving credit facilities from?

Perhaps Russia, the same place as Abkhazia?

No. China opposes any form of infringement on territorial integrity. They've always vetoed anything violating this in the UN Security Council out of principle, including the Russian annexation of Crimea, which China to this date doesn't recognise.

You know - China doesn't trade with anybody that trades with Taiwan, right?

Except for America, they get a pass for being big and rich and nukey.

Liberia tried that once - they recognised Taiwan. China embargoed them and stopped all investments. Oops.

Yes, I'm aware of Taiwan, and I know that China trades with Crimea just fine. They just don't officially trade with Crimea. China also trades with Abkhazia. And yeah - Liberia was punished for recognizing Taiwan. Not for being independent. You don't have to have official recognition to trade. That's ridiculous. US doesn't recognize Taiwan - and yet, US trades with Taiwan. You know who else does? China, Japan, Singapore...

In GOODS.

SERVICES cannot be traded

A DEVELOPED ECONOMY trades in SERVICES

Africa has little to offer.

All of Africa? I disagree.

Your opinion is not fact.

Probably.

So I see your solution to a THRIVING CATALAN ECONOMY™ is trading with the economic powerhouses of Africa and Latin America.

Seems like a road to success.

The economy will be tough. But claiming that Catalonia will be 100% isolated is ridiculous.

[/quote]

No just 97%.

[Shofercia]

Congratulations to Republic of Catalonia.
Don't worry no one likes you now. Politics. Look how tiny and pitiful is Transnistria compared to you, and it exists since 1992, not bothered.

International recognition is overrated.

Transnistria. That glorious thriving republic whose population has fallen by 60% in 20 years as people run away from poverty and unemployment, where half of young people are unemployed, the GDP per capita is in parity with that of the Republic of Zimbabwe, where one tenth of the population cannot read and write and with levels of child malnourishment similar to 19th century Europe.

Recipe for Success.

Who wouldn't want to be like Transnistria, the officially poorest, hungriest, least educated and least happy place in Europe? I don't know, they must be MAD.

Population fell by 34% in 20 years. In Moldova it fell by 26%. Also, the fall in population was partially due to the Civil War. In Ukraine it fell by 21%. But chin up - at least they're not Communist!

[Trumptonium]

Seriously, can you imagine Spaniards putting down rebellion in oldschool hardcore ways? With immense abhorrence?

Yes

[Baalkistann]

Well they did it:
http://time.com/5000077/catalan-independence-motion/

[The Archregimancy]

So did the Confederate States of America, Biafra, and Katanga.

I'm sure the Court of Saint James is looking forward to receiving their latest ambassadors any moment now.

The point is that a declaration of independence is not, and never has been, a guarantee that independence will subsequently be achieved.

If Kosovo and Transnistria can exist under their shitty circumstances, so can Catalonia.

That's not remotely the point I was making.

I was simply noting that a declaration of independence doesn't automatically lead to actual independence.

In some cases it does; in others it doesn't.

But the actual act of declaring independence offers no guarantees.

[Socialist Czechia]

Congratulations to Republic of Catalonia.
Don't worry no one likes you now. Politics. Look how tiny and pitiful is Transnistria compared to you, and it exists since 1992, not bothered.

International recognition is overrated.

Transnistria.

I know that anti-russian comments are popular like in times of Crimean War or Cold War, but can it be without lying?

Sure, Transnistria kinda is last true remnant of USSR, therefore you can't expect miracles.
It is, however, still pretty place, under circumstances.

Check more sources, not every lie and half-truths.

"Growing up in a country that doesnt exist"

It is home to more than 500,000 people and has a parliamentary government, a standing army, and its own currency. It has all the trappings of an independent nation—but isn't.

Oh sure, it declared independence from Moldova in 1990 and fought a war two years later. And it's got a constitution and a flag and even a coat of arms. But you won't find it on many maps, and not a single member of the United Nations recognizes its existence.

Oh, and isn't Spain even the worse place for young people to find job? I'd expect better, from EU member, technically one of the most important ones.

[The Empire of Pretantia]

Transnistria.

I know that anti-russian comments are popular like in times of Crimean War or Cold War, but can it be without lying?

Sure, Transnistria kinda is last true remnant of USSR, therefore you can't expect miracles.
It is, however, still pretty place, under circumstances.

Check more sources, not every lie and half-truths.

"Growing up in a country that doesnt exist"

It is home to more than 500,000 people and has a parliamentary government, a standing army, and its own currency. It has all the trappings of an independent nation—but isn't.

Oh sure, it declared independence from Moldova in 1990 and fought a war two years later. And it's got a constitution and a flag and even a coat of arms. But you won't find it on many maps, and not a single member of the United Nations recognizes its existence.

Oh, and isn't Spain even the worse place for young people to find job? I'd expect better, from EU member, technically one of the most important ones.

I'm sure there are worse places to find a job. Like Somalia.

[Socialist Czechia]

In Kosovo's case half the world recognizes them, in Transnistria's case Russian recognizes them. Nobody as of this moment recognizes Catalonia

In Kosovo's case, not even all members of EU recognize it.
Transnistria is not recognized by Russia nor literally anyone else in the world.

Can people here check at least Wikipedia, before answering to something they know nothing about?

[Trumptonium]

Transnistria. That glorious thriving republic whose population has fallen by 60% in 20 years as people run away from poverty and unemployment, where half of young people are unemployed, the GDP per capita is in parity with that of the Republic of Zimbabwe, where one tenth of the population cannot read and write and with levels of child malnourishment similar to 19th century Europe.

Recipe for Success.

Who wouldn't want to be like Transnistria, the officially poorest, hungriest, least educated and least happy place in Europe? I don't know, they must be MAD.

Population fell by 34% in 20 years. In Moldova it fell by 26%. Also, the fall in population was partially due to the Civil War. In Ukraine it fell by 21%. But chin up - at least they're not Communist!

"Finding that their qualifications are worthless, many students leave the country. They move to Moldova or Russia, the only countries that will admit them. But it is not only young people who are affected by migration. Between 1989 and 2014, Transnistria went from having 750,000 inhabitants to only 450,000, mostly due to the lack of jobs."

((750000-450000)/750000)*100= 40% decline

Minus the people who commute to work outside of the country or live outside the country the majority of the time but call Transnitnsitnira home (75k) we're down to 375k people.

((750000-375000)/750000)*100=50% decline

[Trumptonium]

Transnistria.

I know that anti-russian comments are popular like in times of Crimean War or Cold War, but can it be without lying?

What lies have I told about that place?

Are you contesting the statistical facts that Transistria is poorer per person than Zimbabwe, has a HIV prevalence rate similar to Congo and an infant mortality on par with the African average, as well as one of the highest illiteracy rates in the world?

Or just the opinionated facts that it's just a shit place to live in supported by evidence of people running away en masse (half of them) to escape poverty?