Catalonia Megathread: Should Catalonia Separate From Spain?

[Pasong Tirad]

a poor move IMO, since that just makes people want to leave even more

Rajoy looks fucked either way, really. Send in tanka, you prove Catalans right and more people will become independentists. Do nothing and Spain loses a fourth of its economy and possibly lead to more Balkanization.

These are nonsensical opinions.

Catalonia is divided in two - people who identify as Spaniards and believe Madrid is the first port of call and people who identify as Catalonians and see Madrid as an oppressor.

People who see themselves as Spaniards won't suddenly become pro-independence because Spain sends in tanks. That's probably what they want to happen. People don't change their national identity because of seeing people they don't identify with/like being suppressed. National identity is not a raffle that changes from Tuesday to Friday.

Time will tell, really. But Spain hasn't been handling this well.

[G-Tech Corporation]

a poor move IMO, since that just makes people want to leave even more

Rajoy looks fucked either way, really. Send in tanka, you prove Catalans right and more people will become independentists. Do nothing and Spain loses a fourth of its economy and possibly lead to more Balkanization.

These are nonsensical opinions.

Catalonia is divided in two - people who identify as Spaniards and believe Madrid is the first port of call and people who identify as Catalonians and see Madrid as an oppressor.

People who see themselves as Spaniards won't suddenly become pro-independence because Spain sends in tanks. That's probably what they want to happen. People don't change their national identity because of seeing people they don't identify with/like being suppressed. National identity is not a raffle that changes from Tuesday to Friday.

Hogwash. National identity isn’t nearly so clear cut- rolling the tanks will convince many that might be on the fence about the national government that Rajoy has no care for Catalonia except as an asset to the Spanish state. Only a hard radical independent wing and hard national wing will protest likely or approvd of repression, but either way using force will cause folks to make decisions they might not have bothered with otherwise.

[Sabara]

-snip-

"The division of powers between the central government in Madrid and the regional government in Barcelona is not as clear-cut as it is in some other countries with devolved authorities such as Germany or the UK [...] in the UK, for example, the government in Westminster cannot interfere in Scottish education policy because education is fully devolved."

I think this is pretty clear that the UK and other federal countries have better protections and understanding between devolved governments than the Spanish.. Regardless, much of this is Spain's own fault by refusing to grant Catalonia further autonomy/address Catalan concerns.

[Shofercia]

Damn, shit just go serious. And yeah - no good calls for Rajoy. To those of you calling for sending in tanks - seriously? Spain needs Catalonia because of Catalonia's economy. Let's say that the Catalans simply refuse to work until they get independence. What's Madrid going to do? Modern slavery in an EU state?

If the entire region's population manages to organise a strike on such a level as to cripple it, then I suppose we'd all congratulate them and give them a standing ovation as to be so organised and determined, regardless of our political stances.

I don't see that happening, really. Maybe in France, in 1968...not in Catalonia, 2017.

Have you ever been to Catalonia? I have. They're wealthier than the rest of Spain, (so they can take the economic hit,) are more efficient, and are crazy for independence. If the tanks roll in - that's exactly what will happen. They'll disperse... and then not go to work.

Rajoy looks fucked either way, really. Send in tanka, you prove Catalans right and more people will become independentists.

You don't prove them right, you subjugate a rebellious province.

You need an economy that can take said hit. Spain doesn't have that economy.

Damn, shit just go serious. And yeah - no good calls for Rajoy. To those of you calling for sending in tanks - seriously? Spain needs Catalonia because of Catalonia's economy. Let's say that the Catalans simply refuse to work until they get independence. What's Madrid going to do? Modern slavery in an EU state?

The majority of important companies in Catalonia have already moved to the rest of Spain.

Two of Catalonia's largest banks moved their headquarters from Barcelona to Madrid and Valencia. The tallest building in Barcelona is going to be empty as of next month and people are losing their jobs en masse.

Catalonia is en route to a depression already.

Catalonia used to have 7 companies on the Madrid IBEX 35 stock index, today it has 0.

If Catalans 'simply refuse to work until they get independence', nothing will happen. Well, except for mass starvation and poverty, I guess. People getting thrown out for not paying mortgages, energy supply and water supply being cut off as people don't have the income to pay their bills.

Citizens getting thrown out of their own homes, by force, because they failed to pay a mortgage, in a province that's in the middle of a civil rebellion - have you any idea what that will do to the European Union? This ain't the US. It's a very different mentality. Have you been to the EU?

[Major-Tom]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41783289

Definitely becoming more sympathetic towards the Catalan cause...

[Trumptonium]

-snip-

"The division of powers between the central government in Madrid and the regional government in Barcelona is not as clear-cut as it is in some other countries with devolved authorities such as Germany or the UK [...] in the UK, for example, the government in Westminster cannot interfere in Scottish education policy because education is fully devolved."

I think this is pretty clear that the UK and other federal countries have better protections and understanding between devolved governments than the Spanish.. Regardless, much of this is Spain's own fault by refusing to grant Catalonia further autonomy/address Catalan concerns.

The UK's constitution (or, more precisely, the British conventions) do not protect Scotland's place as a devolved region, and it can be removed at a whim if needed.

Your original comment was grossly incorrect.

[The Empire of Pretantia]

If the entire region's population manages to organise a strike on such a level as to cripple it, then I suppose we'd all congratulate them and give them a standing ovation as to be so organised and determined, regardless of our political stances.

I don't see that happening, really. Maybe in France, in 1968...not in Catalonia, 2017.

Have you ever been to Catalonia? I have. They're wealthier than the rest of Spain, (so they can take the economic hit,) are more efficient, and are crazy for independence. If the tanks roll in - that's exactly what will happen. They'll disperse... and then not go to work.

You don't prove them right, you subjugate a rebellious province.

You need an economy that can take said hit. Spain doesn't have that economy.

That's why you send tanks on them.

[Trumptonium]

Citizens getting thrown out of their own homes, by force, because they failed to pay a mortgage, in a province that's in the middle of a civil rebellion - have you any idea what that will do to the European Union?

What?

Home repossessions happen all over the EU, every single minute of every single hour of every single day.

More people lost their homes in 2008 than the entire population of Catalonia.

This ain't the US. It's a very different mentality. Have you been to the EU?

I've never been outside of the EU since birth. Apart from moving to Poland for three years before it's accession.

They'll disperse... and then not go to work.

And you think that their employers will pay them for not coming to work, or that the services they need (like buying fucking food) will start becoming free?

They don't even need to strike - The vast majority of important Spanish employers have already administratively left the region

The biggest Catalan bank (which is now a Valencian bank) has moved its headquarters and all 4000 of its non-branch employees in Barcelona will become unemployed by Christmas. Catalonia is quickly moving from an economic powerhouse to a territory in desperate poverty and unemployment. Catalonia's unemployment rate has already risen 0.6% in Q2 2017 when the referendum was announced, the only region in Spain to have a jump in unemployment and one of the largest non-global recession jumps in unemployment in Europe

One can only wonder what the true unemployment rate of Catalonia is today, and what it will be come Christmas.

[MERIZoC]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41783289

Definitely becoming more sympathetic towards the Catalan cause...

lol excellent, snap elections will go well for the pro-independence left and shit for Rajoy. I honestly have no idea what he hopes to accomplish here.

[United States of Red Dawn]

Why stand in the way of progress and change? Super-states are out and smaller national enclaves, ideologically, etc, are in. They should follow the example of Czechoslovakia and part very amicably, no bloodshed at all. The old order can sometimes change for the better.

[Pasong Tirad]

Why stand in the way of progress and change? Super-states are out and smaller national enclaves, ideologically, etc, are in. They should follow the example of Czechoslovakia and part very amicably, no bloodshed at all. The old order can sometimes change for the better.

Difference being a large percentage of Czechoslovaks wanted their own state. Catalonia's kind of 50-50.

[Catlander]

I'm already independent ! Hurrah

[Sovaal]

I'm already independent ! Hurrah

I wouldnt celebrate just yet.

[Catlander]

I'm already independent ! Hurrah

I wouldnt celebrate just yet.

Surely... but today we're having a party

[Shofercia]

That's why you send tanks on them.

Wars cost money.

Citizens getting thrown out of their own homes, by force, because they failed to pay a mortgage, in a province that's in the middle of a civil rebellion - have you any idea what that will do to the European Union?

What?

Home repossessions happen all over the EU, every single minute of every single hour of every single day.

More people lost their homes in 2008 than the entire population of Catalonia.

It's easier to repossess one million homes in one million different locations, than it is to repossess 100,000 homes in a single city with 200,000 total homes.

They'll disperse... and then not go to work.

And you think that their employers will pay them for not coming to work, or that the services they need (like buying fucking food) will start becoming free?

They don't even need to strike - The vast majority of important Spanish employers have already administratively left the region

The biggest Catalan bank (which is now a Valencian bank) has moved its headquarters and all 4000 of its non-branch employees in Barcelona will become unemployed by Christmas. Catalonia is quickly moving from an economic powerhouse to a territory in desperate poverty and unemployment. Catalonia's unemployment rate has already risen 0.6% in Q2 2017 when the referendum was announced, the only region in Spain to have a jump in unemployment and one of the largest non-global recession jumps in unemployment in Europe

One can only wonder what the true unemployment rate of Catalonia is today, and what it will be come Christmas.

Of course - but what do you think will happen to the Spanish economy? You spoke of what, 4,000 jobs leaving Catalonia? That's laughable for a region of 7.5 million people. Speaking of the economy: https://www.oecd.org/edu/imhe/46827358.pdf

Catalonia has a diversified economy. Manufacturing and market-related production services account for more than half of the region’s employment and GVA. 66.8% of employment is in the tertiary sector, 26% in manufacturing, 10.2% in construction and 2.2% in agriculture. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) dominate the regional economy...

Yeah, clearly, they're shaking in their boots...

[The Empire of Pretantia]

That's why you send tanks on them.

Wars cost money.

So does secession.

[Samnoreg]

This whole situation kinda takes me aback. It's very choppy waters that Spain is sailing in right about now, that's for sure. Hopefully it can be resolved in a peaceable manner.

[Sovaal]

I wouldnt celebrate just yet.

Surely... but today we're having a party

And tomorrow you might be living under martial law.

[Sovaal]

Wars cost money.

So does secession.

Espicqlly when it's the richer provinces.

[Trumptonium]

Of course - but what do you think will happen to the Spanish economy?

It [the Spanish economy] will decline. Not only by the entire worth of Catalonia's economy, of course, but also by side-effects to a small degree.

The Catalan economy will collapse. They have no line of credit, no customers, no suppliers. No economy.

You spoke of what, 4,000 jobs leaving Catalonia?

From one company over a period of 30 days.

Those 4k jobs alone account for 0.2% of jobs in Catalonia. Catalonia's unemployment has already increased by 0.6% in Q3'17. Predictions for Q4'17 are nearer to ~3% increase in unemployment (2008-like) and that's before we even count in today's declaration.

Catalonia has a diversified economy. Manufacturing and market-related production services account for more than half of the region’s employment and GVA. 66.8% of employment is in the tertiary sector, 26% in manufacturing, 10.2% in construction and 2.2% in agriculture. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) dominate the regional economy...

Yeah, clearly, they're shaking in their boots...

1) The majority of these are moving away to the rest of Spain.

I've already said that all 7 of the 7 companies that were on the Spanish stock market have already left the region, and will no longer pay tax there, and many are now moving jobs as well, like the biggest bank that I just referenced.

Some businesses, such as telecoms company Eurona and biotech firm Oryzon Genomics, have already announced plans to move their offices to other parts of Spain, leading to sharp rises in their share prices.

SEAT, the largest employer in Catalonia of 14 000 people and an exporter of half a million cars from Catalonia worth 8.7 billion euros, has secretly sent a letter to their employees noting their intention to leave the region if legal protections needs to be sought, in [url=https://uk.reuters.com/article/spain-politics-catalonia-volkswagen/vws-catalonia-based-unit-says-will-move-hq-if-legal-security-in-doubt-idUKE8N1FS01S[/url], after which share prices of VW (which own SEAT) have risen.

Volkswagen today issued a statement it was 'closely monitoring what is happening politically in the region', and are widely expected to move their production facilities out of Spain very soon, having been revealed to be contacting the Czech government for a potential expansion of VW activities in the short term. Nissan issued a nearly identical statement, but haven't made any moves signifying their intention to move out, but are expected to do so anyway. Nobody wants to produce anything in a country disconnected from world markets. Why would you?

2) So you're saying that Catalans are 'going to strike' at the same time as they are going to flourish economically because of what they already have?

So I guess all those SEAT cars will produce themselves then and in the meantime Volkswagen will be very happy to continue paying their 14 000 workers in Catalonia wages.

Pull the other one.

----

Catalonia, in an independence scenario, would be completely disconnected from world financial markets, and would be predictably limited in the goods trading markets. Lines of credit would disappear, and Catalonia would only be able to pay what they already receive (and not a cent more), and what they receive will only decrease in time.

[Lord of The Rings]

Thing is, the moment a state declares independence, the law of the former state it was part of no longer applies, as was ruled in the Kosovo case.

Do you have a link to that case? Because as far as I know, unilateral declarations of independence have never been accepted as binding in international law.

I'll have to search around for it, don't have it on hand here. I'll let you know when I found it.

To be fair, as a so called 'EU-citizen' I wouldn't mind the EU collapsing all that much. It has become more of a trouble than worth as of late. But yes, the Catalans will be out of the EU but I'm sure they'll re-apply for the EU fairly soon when/if the independence gets truly realized.

They won't get it. Spain, and the rest of the EU, especially France, will veto any application

Meh, depends on how ugly the divorce would go.

Thing is, the moment a state declares independence, the law of the former state it was part of no longer applies, as was ruled in the Kosovo case.

Doesn't matter as strictly speaking legally Catalonia has no legal right to independence. So legally speaking Catalonia is Spanish

'Legal' in the current context doesn't apply any longer. Kosovo had no 'legal right' to independence either, still they ruled in Kosovo's favour regardless.
If Catalonia is smart they take the matter to the international court. Without that (or overwhelming support from the world's nations, which doesn't seem very likely) their independence will be a short lived one.

[Lord of The Rings]

I have no idea on how trustworthy the Express is but it reported that a Finnish politician intends to submit a motion for Finland to recognize Catalonia.

[The Archregimancy]

I have no idea on how trustworthy the Express is but it reported that a Finnish politician intends to submit a motion for Finland to recognize Catalonia.

Mr Karna's Twitter feed suggests a personal agenda rather than the likelihood that this is official Finnish government policy,

[The Conez Imperium]

Wars cost money.

So does secession.

This is probably the stage where the Spanish government sends a obscure note to the Catalan government to the words of "you and what army?"

Ultimately, Catalonia won't become independent unless it manages to convince the world of her plight (which it won't) or defend itself with an army (which it can't).

[Shofercia]

Of course - but what do you think will happen to the Spanish economy?

It [the Spanish economy] will decline. Not only by the entire worth of Catalonia's economy, of course, but also by side-effects to a small degree.

The Catalan economy will collapse. They have no line of credit, no customers, no suppliers. No economy.

That's not how the economy works. There are fail-safes built in, enabling the economy to withstand a massive strike or protest.

You spoke of what, 4,000 jobs leaving Catalonia?

From one company over a period of 30 days.

Those 4k jobs alone account for 0.2% of jobs in Catalonia. Catalonia's unemployment has already increased by 0.6% in Q3'17. Predictions for Q4'17 are nearer to ~3% increase in unemployment (2008-like) and that's before we even count in today's declaration.

Can I see a source saying that Catalonia's workforce is just 2 million?

Yeah, clearly, they're shaking in their boots...

1) The majority of these are moving away to the rest of Spain.

The majority of small and medium-sized enterprises are moving to Spain? Really now? Is there a source for that?

I've already said that all 7 of the 7 companies that were on the Spanish stock market have already left the region, and will no longer pay tax there, and many are now moving jobs as well, like the biggest bank that I just referenced.

Yes, you've said that already. Not seeing how a 0.2%, or even a 2% rise in unemployment is going to hit Catalonia, considering that Catalonia is a net benefactor to Spain's budget.

Some businesses, such as telecoms company Eurona and biotech firm Oryzon Genomics, have already announced plans to move their offices to other parts of Spain, leading to sharp rises in their share prices.

SEAT, the largest employer in Catalonia of 14 000 people and an exporter of half a million cars from Catalonia worth 8.7 billion euros, has secretly sent a letter to their employees noting their intention to leave the region if legal protections needs to be sought, in [url=https://uk.reuters.com/article/spain-politics-catalonia-volkswagen/vws-catalonia-based-unit-says-will-move-hq-if-legal-security-in-doubt-idUKE8N1FS01S[/url], after which share prices of VW (which own SEAT) have risen.

Ahh yes - SEAT might move from Catalonia - and lose their customers in Catalonia. Where have I seen this before? Oh yeah, "isolated" Russia. Companies "hurr durr", then realize they need the local market, and move back in.

Volkswagen today issued a statement it was 'closely monitoring what is happening politically in the region', and are widely expected to move their production facilities out of Spain very soon, having been revealed to be contacting the Czech government for a potential expansion of VW activities in the short term. Nissan issued a nearly identical statement, but haven't made any moves signifying their intention to move out, but are expected to do so anyway. Nobody wants to produce anything in a country disconnected from world markets. Why would you?

If said country can buy your products, and if it's disconnected, how else can you get your products to said country?

2) So you're saying that Catalans are 'going to strike' at the same time as they are going to flourish economically because of what they already have?

Oh no, the economics will be quite tough. It's just that Catalonia's economy is better than Spain's. You don't flourish when you secede. South Ossetia, and Abkhazia were hard hit economically when they seceded. The only place I can think of that thrived economically - is Crimea. That's it. Secession's an economic bitch. But so is Rajoy acting like an imbecile. He should've gone for more autonomy. Instead...

(Edit: South Ossetia thrived too, but that's because the Russians pumped in 600% of South Ossetia's GDP as economic aid, so I'm not using that as an example.)

Catalonia, in an independence scenario, would be completely disconnected from world financial markets, and would be predictably limited in the goods trading markets. Lines of credit would disappear, and Catalonia would only be able to pay what they already receive (and not a cent more), and what they receive will only decrease in time.

So China won't trade with it? Africa won't trade with it? Latin America won't trade with it? C'mon - don't be ridiculous.