Great Confederacy Of Commonwealth States wrote:G-Tech Corporation wrote:
The trouble, really, is that voter turnout was likely heavily depressed due to the Spanish government declaring the referendum illegal, and making every effort up to and including physical violence to prevent people from voting. In such circumstances it seems axiomatic that a significant proportion of the voting public that were pro-referendum but somewhat less than fervent in their need to vote would have stayed home.
However, a different reading is that the people who are against the referendum did not recognise the referendum as legal, and therefore did not come out to vote. At this stage, it is impossible to guess what the results of a 'real' referendum would have been. That is the problem with the referendum as it played out: there are several different readings one can do of the facts, and none can be definitively proven. I think we should disregard the outcome of the referendum because its outcome was not achieved under optimal conditions. That is not to say that the Catalans don't deserve a proper referendum and their independence, which I wholeheartedly believe, but this referendum is not an argument in favour of independence.
As for the issue of legality; while self-governance is a right of any people, it should be achieved via the most legal means possible in a state. Natural law to self-determination does not give someone a free pass from all a nation's laws, only those that directly contradict their wish for independence.
Apologies, my personal biases for regionalism and the upholding of the right of all peoples to self-determination might also be getting in the way of seeing Madrid's actions as anything but wrong. Because, really, all of Catalonia's troubles can easily be solved if only Madrid wasn't so obstinate in making sure Catalans aren't allowed to decide what their future is, whether or not rhat future is to remain with the rest of Spain.
I've said it before a couple dozen or so pages back: I believe that if the referendum was given the green light by Madrid, Catalans would, in my opinion, would prefer to maintain the status quo and vote to stay with Spain because polls have put the two sides almost evenly split down the middle, fluctuating here and there like a dial.