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What if Trump had won as a Democrat?

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Nouveau Yathrib
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What if Trump had won as a Democrat?

Postby Nouveau Yathrib » Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:56 pm

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/07/08/what-if-trump-had-won-as-a-democrat-215351

It’s a fascinating thought experiment: Could Trump have done to the Democrats in 2016 what he did to the Republicans? Why not? There, too, he would have challenged an overconfident, message-challenged establishment candidate (Hillary Clinton instead of Jeb Bush). He would have had an even smaller number of competitors to dispatch. One could easily see him doing as well as or better than Bernie Sanders—surprising Clinton in the Iowa caucuses, winning the New Hampshire primaries, and on and on. More to the point, many of Trump’s views—skepticism on trade, sympathetic to Planned Parenthood, opposition to the Iraq War, a focus on blue-collar workers in Rust Belt America—seemed to gel as well, if not better, with blue-state America than red. Think the Democrats wouldn’t tolerate misogynist rhetoric and boorish behavior from their leaders? Well, then you’ve forgotten about Woodrow Wilson and John F. Kennedy and LBJ and Bill Clinton.


Not sure how I feel about Trump running as a Democrat. While I have deep reservations about the guy being in the White House (regardless of what platform he runs on), I find myself agreeing with many of his positions in this scenario, and believe his charisma could have allowed the Democrats to regain their status as the party of the working-class. It's really a shame he started the stupid "birther" movement and sided with the climate skeptics, I might have otherwise supported him last year.
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Zaluzianskya
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Postby Zaluzianskya » Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:59 pm

I don't know if he could have won the Democratic primary. He would have just siphoned off some of Sanders' "anti-establishment" vote without really touching Clinton's base.
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Postby Genivaria » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:01 pm

Then I'd become a card-carrying member of the Socialist Party.

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Postby The Serbian Empire » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:01 pm

Wouldn't have made it through the primaries. See what happened to Bernie was a what appears to have been deliberate campaign to keep outsiders from usurping the candidate position.
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Postby The Serbian Empire » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:07 pm

Zaluzianskya wrote:I don't know if he could have won the Democratic primary. He would have just siphoned off some of Sanders' "anti-establishment" vote without really touching Clinton's base.

The reason Sanders failed was for the same reason Trump went for the GOP. The DNC has this mold of what they consider as an acceptable candidate and that's a politician who has been a party member. Sanders being an Independent from Vermont isn't exactly what they look for and Trump wasn't elected to political office first.
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The Christonian Imperium
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Postby The Christonian Imperium » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:08 pm

Off topic but if I ran it would be for the democrats since they mainly care about who's party your in and then I would take the ideas of socialism, welfare for everyone ( I would make it to where welfare is for people who work ) I would also make it to where congress gets paid only if they are in Washington, D.C. Doing federal functions at the same rate of an American soldier do to the fact that most politicians are useless Whining cucks
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Postby Argentinstan » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:09 pm

Unlikely he would make it through the primaries.
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Postby Valgora » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:11 pm

I still would have hated him.
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Postby New haven america » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:14 pm

I'd still hate him.

He was an asshole even before running, so yeah...
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Anti-Faminism
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Postby Anti-Faminism » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:16 pm

Sanders would have won the primary. Like he should have.
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Postby New haven america » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:18 pm

Anti-Faminism wrote:Sanders would have won the primary. Like he should have.

Sanders wouldn't have won anything, even without the whole DNC fiasco, he wouldn't have won.

This coming from someone who likes him.
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Postby Valgora » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:19 pm

Anti-Faminism wrote:Sanders would have won the primary. Like he should have.


Democrats have super-delegates which are party members and they can vote for anyone of the candidates in the Democrat Primaries.
Almost all of them supported Hillary.
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Postby Maineiacs » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:23 pm

If Trump had won as a Democrat, the Republican-controlled Congress would currently be in the middle of an impeachment trial.
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Postby The Widening Gyre » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:25 pm

You'd have to go back to probably 2008 or further and rewrite Trump's political positions before you could get anywhere near giving Trump the nod. This is the guy who ran for the GOP in 2012 and made his new political career publicly arguing that the Democratic president was actually a foreign citizen. The powers that be wouldn't let him get anywhere close.
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Postby Greed and Death » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:41 pm

Zaluzianskya wrote:I don't know if he could have won the Democratic primary. He would have just siphoned off some of Sanders' "anti-establishment" vote without really touching Clinton's base.

And the GOP hate vote.
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Postby Pope Joan » Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:48 pm

It's a fascinating question. It would certainly have split the party even more deeply than a Bernie presidency would have. On the on hand, established entrenched entitled elitists. On the other, brash populist newcomers who don't know or respect the rules.

Who knows, it might end up resembling a modern version of the Jacksonian presidency.

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Postby Oldenfranck » Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:07 pm

I would have voted for him if he was the democratic nominee, everyone on board the blind party loyalty train :bow: .

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Postby Astrolinium » Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:14 pm

There's no reasonable version of events where Trump could have won the Democratic Primary. Firstly, by rights, he shouldn't have even won the Republic Primary -- he only accrued a large enough lead to chase off competitors and actually get across the necessary margin because the GOP primaries have several winner-take-all and winner-take-most states. Without them, Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich would have remained serious contenders far longer, and he would have been faced with, at the least, a floor fight at the convention if not an outright loss. To think that he could have won the Democratic primary when he shouldn't have even won his own party's is absurd. Second, the DNC's superdelegates exist for a very good reason, and that reason is to stop men like Donald Trump from winning their nomination.
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Postby The Black Forrest » Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:16 pm

I would still be slapping my head over the stupid things he says and does.
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Postby Nouveau Yathrib » Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:17 pm

Astrolinium wrote:There's no reasonable version of events where Trump could have won the Democratic Primary. Firstly, by rights, he shouldn't have even won the Republic Primary -- he only accrued a large enough lead to chase off competitors and actually get across the necessary margin because the GOP primaries have several winner-take-all and winner-take-most states. Without them, Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich would have remained serious contenders far longer, and he would have been faced with, at the least, a floor fight at the convention if not an outright loss. To think that he could have won the Democratic primary when he shouldn't have even won his own party's is absurd. Second, the DNC's superdelegates exist for a very good reason, and that reason is to stop men like Donald Trump from winning their nomination.


I know, it's absurd how he was actually elected president. He would've needed to crush Hillary in the primaries to cancel out the DNC superdelegates if he'd ran as a Democrat.
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Postby Astrolinium » Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:20 pm

Nouveau Yathrib wrote:
Astrolinium wrote:There's no reasonable version of events where Trump could have won the Democratic Primary. Firstly, by rights, he shouldn't have even won the Republic Primary -- he only accrued a large enough lead to chase off competitors and actually get across the necessary margin because the GOP primaries have several winner-take-all and winner-take-most states. Without them, Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich would have remained serious contenders far longer, and he would have been faced with, at the least, a floor fight at the convention if not an outright loss. To think that he could have won the Democratic primary when he shouldn't have even won his own party's is absurd. Second, the DNC's superdelegates exist for a very good reason, and that reason is to stop men like Donald Trump from winning their nomination.


I know, it's absurd how he was actually elected president. He would've needed to crush Hillary in the primaries to cancel out the DNC superdelegates if he'd ran as a Democrat.


As I said in the other thread, they likely wouldn't have even come into play. They didn't against Bernie, who is someone who's actually on the same political side as the Democratic Party, and I can't imagine Trump, no matter how he tweaks his rhetoric, seriously getting a higher share of the Democratic vote than Bernie Sanders, especially if he has Bernie to contend with as one of his opponents. Now, you can argue that having a third somewhat serious contender might have cut into Clinton's vote enough to end up with a floor fight, in which case the superdelegates would have come into play, but even then, the floor fight would almost certainly have been between Hillary and Bernie.
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Postby The East Marches II » Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:30 pm

Astrolinium wrote:There's no reasonable version of events where Trump could have won the Democratic Primary. Firstly, by rights, he shouldn't have even won the Republic Primary -- he only accrued a large enough lead to chase off competitors and actually get across the necessary margin because the GOP primaries have several winner-take-all and winner-take-most states. Without them, Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich would have remained serious contenders far longer, and he would have been faced with, at the least, a floor fight at the convention if not an outright loss. To think that he could have won the Democratic primary when he shouldn't have even won his own party's is absurd. Second, the DNC's superdelegates exist for a very good reason, and that reason is to stop men like Donald Trump from winning their nomination.


I would not say that this version we're living now is a reasonable version of events would you?

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Postby Astrolinium » Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:37 pm

The East Marches II wrote:
Astrolinium wrote:There's no reasonable version of events where Trump could have won the Democratic Primary. Firstly, by rights, he shouldn't have even won the Republic Primary -- he only accrued a large enough lead to chase off competitors and actually get across the necessary margin because the GOP primaries have several winner-take-all and winner-take-most states. Without them, Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich would have remained serious contenders far longer, and he would have been faced with, at the least, a floor fight at the convention if not an outright loss. To think that he could have won the Democratic primary when he shouldn't have even won his own party's is absurd. Second, the DNC's superdelegates exist for a very good reason, and that reason is to stop men like Donald Trump from winning their nomination.


I would not say that this version we're living now is a reasonable version of events would you?


That depends on what the definition of "reasonable" is. It's not a sane version, it's not a just version, it's not even a terribly comprehensible version, but it is one which was achievable under the parameters of the system as described. We discounted it as a possibility because of its apparent absurdity, but smart individuals were cautioning us the whole time not to get too cocky. We should have listened to them. Because of winner-take-all states, the GOP primary was easily gamed by Trump, Clinton had suffered under decades of attacks by the GOP, the data the DNC had was wrong and so they had her campaigning in the wrong states, and the rest was, as they say, кусок торта.
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Postby The East Marches II » Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:39 pm

Astrolinium wrote:
The East Marches II wrote:
I would not say that this version we're living now is a reasonable version of events would you?


That depends on what the definition of "reasonable" is. It's not a sane version, it's not a just version, it's not even a terribly comprehensible version, but it is one which was achievable under the parameters of the system as described. We discounted it as a possibility because of its apparent absurdity, but smart individuals were cautioning us the whole time not to get too cocky. We should have listened to them. Because of winner-take-all states, the GOP primary was easily gamed by Trump, Clinton had suffered under decades of attacks by the GOP, the data the DNC had was wrong and so they had her campaigning in the wrong states, and the rest was, as they say, кусок торта.


Just as Trump could have won the DNC nomination, it could have been achievable under the parameters of the system as described. It is foolish to count him out after he managed to pull this off. I think it have been very very interesting and you are being naive to think that he couldn't have managed it.

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Postby Astrolinium » Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:47 pm

The East Marches II wrote:
Astrolinium wrote:
That depends on what the definition of "reasonable" is. It's not a sane version, it's not a just version, it's not even a terribly comprehensible version, but it is one which was achievable under the parameters of the system as described. We discounted it as a possibility because of its apparent absurdity, but smart individuals were cautioning us the whole time not to get too cocky. We should have listened to them. Because of winner-take-all states, the GOP primary was easily gamed by Trump, Clinton had suffered under decades of attacks by the GOP, the data the DNC had was wrong and so they had her campaigning in the wrong states, and the rest was, as they say, кусок торта.


Just as Trump could have won the DNC nomination, it could have been achievable under the parameters of the system as described. It is foolish to count him out after he managed to pull this off. I think it have been very very interesting and you are being naive to think that he couldn't have managed it.


Ah, but there's a reason beyond his politics as to why he ran as a Republican and not a Democrat. Donald Trump won only 44.9% of the vote in the Republican Primary. Because of winner-take-all states, he got a vastly higher percentage of the delegates, and even then, the percentage of votes he got is skewed too high by the fact that nine states, including California, New Jersey, and Washington all had their primaries after every other opponent of Trump's had withdrawn, which they only did because his narrow victories in winner-take-all states gave him a much higher number of delegates than he had actually earned. A floor fight would have been inevitable at the convention without winner-take-all states, and it's much more likely that the non-Trump delegates would have rallied around Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich, especially since Trump's share of the vote would have been much lower, and ultimately fairly comparable to Ted Cruz's. Had the RNC not had winner-take-all states, I daresay Ted Cruz would likely have won the Republican nomination.

Sure, it would have been possible by a slim chance for him to win the Democratic nomination, but it would have been miles harder than it was to win the Republican one.
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