Middle East Conflict Megathread (Syria, Iraq, Yemen, etc)

[Genivaria]

Depends on what you mean by Civil War. For instance, let's take the Second Chechen War. The active phase of the war lasted slightly less than a year, the insurgency phase lasted for six years, and the clean up phase lasted for an additional three years. The active part of Syria's Civil War is going to end within the next three years, and most likely sooner. The insurgency phase - probably within a decade or two.




I don't understand why the US isn't just content with Iraq, and must dominate Syria as well. It's like the US is trying to act like the Spanish Armada.




The Kurds are very dominant in Eastern Syria, you can see that on the map shown above.

I suspect that our Friends, Israel and Saudi Arabia, want us to purge the region of Shiites. Ideally this means destroying Iran, but a helpful first step in that direction would be to replace Assad with a client state. This would also disrupt Hezbollah's supply routes.

Personally I'm not yet convinced that Iran is a lost cause, I think that our main goal with Iran is to undermine their government and speak directly to their people who support reform.
Saudi Arabia on the other hand...

[The East Marches II]

It'd be so ambitious as to be brash. Then again, I'm surprised the global community hasn't been more vocal in condemning what will almost certainly result in an illegal occupation of Syrian territory and what the SDF has explicitly called an illegal occupation.

I'm not. Because of the current NATO-SCO stand off, (with both sides pointing fingers and yelling "they started it!") neither side wants to piss off Turkey unless a member is directly attacked. Hence the lack of international condemnation. The other thing is that - what are they going to do? The Russians can sanction Turkey, as can the Americans - and then? Sanctions haven't deterred Erdogan's hawkish foreign policy in the past. Sanctions only work if they're truly global, and precisely targeted. Otherwise they're a joke for cat memes.

Sanctions don't work if the country in question is irrational, like a Russia or Syria. The only that can bring to reason is a strong hand. Our defting handling of the little green men by simply erasing them made the Russians turn tail when they got caught trying it a second time. It looks like Assad is going to potentially need a strong hand too so he remembers his place :^]

[Aulus Maximus]

I'm not. Because of the current NATO-SCO stand off, (with both sides pointing fingers and yelling "they started it!") neither side wants to piss off Turkey unless a member is directly attacked. Hence the lack of international condemnation. The other thing is that - what are they going to do? The Russians can sanction Turkey, as can the Americans - and then? Sanctions haven't deterred Erdogan's hawkish foreign policy in the past. Sanctions only work if they're truly global, and precisely targeted. Otherwise they're a joke for cat memes.

Sanctions don't work if the country in question is irrational, like a Russia or Syria. The only that can bring to reason is a strong hand. Our defting handling of the little green men by simply erasing them made the Russians turn tail when they got caught trying it a second time. It looks like Assad is going to potentially need a strong hand too so he remembers his place :^]

[url°https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uadPjtoONnM]Syria should just become part of Greater Israel tbh :^)[/url]

[The East Marches II]

Sanctions don't work if the country in question is irrational, like a Russia or Syria. The only that can bring to reason is a strong hand. Our defting handling of the little green men by simply erasing them made the Russians turn tail when they got caught trying it a second time. It looks like Assad is going to potentially need a strong hand too so he remembers his place :^]

Syria should just become part of Greater Israel tbh :^)

R-rightful O-ottoman clay

[Aulus Maximus]

Syria should just become part of Greater Israel tbh :^)

R-rightful O-ottoman clay

T4 airfield would like a talk with you. Especially after they got some Jewish loving last night.

[The East Marches II]

R-rightful O-ottoman clay

T4 airfield would like a talk with you. Especially after they got some Jewish loving last night.

Saddam's revenge strikes again :^)

[Aulus Maximus]

T4 airfield would like a talk with you. Especially after they got some Jewish loving last night.

Saddam's revenge strikes again :^)

Does Saddam live on in the soul of Daddy Netanyahu?

[The East Marches II]

Saddam's revenge strikes again :^)

Does Saddam live on in the soul of Daddy Netanyahu?

Yes, yes he does. They both like removing minority groups in their countries. Also Daddy Assad betrayed him in Gulf 1. Nothing of value being lost now (the country not the people of course)

[Fahran]

I'm not. Because of the current NATO-SCO stand off, (with both sides pointing fingers and yelling "they started it!") neither side wants to piss off Turkey unless a member is directly attacked. Hence the lack of international condemnation. The other thing is that - what are they going to do? The Russians can sanction Turkey, as can the Americans - and then? Sanctions haven't deterred Erdogan's hawkish foreign policy in the past. Sanctions only work if they're truly global, and precisely targeted. Otherwise they're a joke for cat memes.

I would concur to an extent. I don't see Trump behaving decisively on matters of foreign policy beyond gaining a couple occasional rhetorical victories. Turkey being a long-time ally of the United States complicates things as well. Maybe someone'll convince a bored Spanish judge to indict Erdogan for war crimes and human rights abuses. It's worked on a couple other people.

Makes sense. Here's a question to someone who primarily supports the SDF. Would you be ok with using the Euphrates River as the division between Ba'ath Syria and the SDF? If so - what should be done with the 3 SDF clusters West of the Euphrates, and the 3 Government clusters East of the Euphrates?

I believe that the SDF and Assad's regime are going to have to arrive at some sort of compromise, and that appears to be the stance of the SDF's leadership at the moment as well. They appear more preoccupied with autonomy than with de jure independence. Allowing freedom of movement, autonomy, and peace would probably be enough to convince the SDF to remain within Syria, at least for awhile. Turkey definitely provides an excellent distraction from internal conflicts. Mind you, I still believe that Assad is essentially a war criminal, but practical politics are a bit more important at the moment.

Saudi Arabia on the other hand...

Mohammed bin Salman might well begin to move Saudi Arabia in a more liberal direction.

[Mujahidah]

Sanctions don't work if the country in question is irrational, like a Russia or Syria. The only that can bring to reason is a strong hand. Our defting handling of the little green men by simply erasing them made the Russians turn tail when they got caught trying it a second time. It looks like Assad is going to potentially need a strong hand too so he remembers his place :^]

[url°https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uadPjtoONnM]Syria should just become part of Greater Israel tbh :^)[/url]

Israel should just become part of Greater Palestine tbh :^)

[Salus Maior]

[url°https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uadPjtoONnM]Syria should just become part of Greater Israel tbh :^)[/url]

Israel should just become part of Greater Palestine tbh :^)

Israel and Palestine should become part of Greater JERUSALEM

[Fahran]

Israel should just become part of Greater Palestine tbh :^)

Israel and Palestine should become part of Greater JERUSALEM

Deus Vult intensifies.

[Crockerland]

Trump himself wants to pull out, and he should.
Our position there is untenable and unlikely to produce good results from this point on.
Our allies should in fact be our enemies there, since they are all wahabis.
Assad was supportive of Christians and Jews, although one would never know it from the way they treat him now.

Meanwhile, Israel continues to be a terror state in the Golan Heights https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/un ... n-heights/

I didn't think openly supporting a holocaust-denying terrorist organization that calls for genocide against all Jews qualified as being supportive of Jews, but I guess if you're getting your information from the UN Human Rights Council then things like basic logic and objective reality aren't going to be factors in your conclusion.

[Painisia]

I wonder if Turkey will start new conflicts in The Middle East?

[Crockerland]

I wonder if Turkey will start new conflicts in The Middle East?

As far as new conflicts go, Turkey is much more likely to start one in Cyprus, Greece, or Armenia than the middle-east; The recent downfall of Qatar-Arabian relations could forecast a renewed conflict between Turkey and Arabia, but for now they most likely both see Iran as a more imminent threat, and will probably hold off from fighting each other until they feel that threat is dealt with.

[Fahran]

As far as new conflicts go, Turkey is much more likely to start one in Cyprus, Greece, or Armenia than the middle-east;

Antagonizing Russia yet again would have some fun consequences.

The recent downfall of Qatar-Arabian relations could forecast a renewed conflict between Turkey and Arabia, but for now they most likely both see Iran as a more imminent threat, and will probably hold off from fighting each other until they feel that threat is dealt with.

Iran is not likely to be "dealt with" for several decades.

[MERIZoC]

I wonder if Turkey will start new conflicts in The Middle East?

What's to wonder? That's what they're actively doing right now.

[Aulus Maximus]

I wonder if Turkey will start new conflicts in The Middle East?

What's to wonder? That's what they're actively doing right now.

And there's nothing wrong with that

:^)

[Baltenstein]

I wonder if Turkey will start new conflicts in The Middle East?

I think the Big E has had enough fun in the ME for the time being, he will probably turn his attention to Cyprus and Greece next. Tensions at the Turko-Greek border have risen to unprecented levels lately.

[Aulus Maximus]

I wonder if Turkey will start new conflicts in The Middle East?

I think the Big E has had enough fun in the ME for the time being, he will probably turn his attention to Cyprus and Greece next. Tensions at the Turko-Greek border have risen to unprecented levels lately.

Can you give a quick rundown? it would be interesting to see what would happen between two NATO countries.

[Baltenstein]

I think the Big E has had enough fun in the ME for the time being, he will probably turn his attention to Cyprus and Greece next. Tensions at the Turko-Greek border have risen to unprecented levels lately.

Can you give a quick rundown? it would be interesting to see what would happen between two NATO countries.

There are two main apples of discord between Turkey and Greece (and several smaller ones, but let's focus on the big disputes) right now:

1.) The first concerns the boundaries between Greek and Turkish territorial waters. The Turkish gov does not accept Greece's internationally recognized sea frontiers along several Greek islands near the Turkish coast and argues that parts of them are actually international waters. Turkish war ships and Turkish jet fighters cross them with increasing frequency, technically violating Greece's borders each time, and there is this constant cat and mouse thing going on with Greek jet fighters and Greek war ships trying to chase them away.
Things have become particularly delicate in regards to the Greek Imia islets lately - the islets are, by themselves, two tiny worthless rocks with no inhabitants, but the Turkish government has made a lot of noise lately on they are actually Turkish clay and - more drastically - Turkish ships have prevented Greek ships from coming near, let alone dock at them. The Greek side fears that Erdogan is looking to make the affair into a template for future clay expansion.
Here's more.

2.) The second dispute is similar in nature, and concerns Cyprus' territorial waters. the Cypriot government wants to start several economic investment activities in regards to Cyprus' deep sea resources, including in waters which are internationally recognized as Cypriot but which Turkey is claiming for for the Republic of Northern Cyprus. As is the case in the Aegean, Turkish war ships are preventing passage for Cypriot ships in certain areas inside Cypriot territorial waters.

[Datlofff]

Can you give a quick rundown? it would be interesting to see what would happen between two NATO countries.

There are two main apples of discord between Turkey and Greece (and several smaller ones, but let's focus on the big disputes) right now:

1.) The first concerns the boundaries between Greek and Turkish territorial waters. The Turkish gov does not accept Greece's internationally recognized sea frontiers along several Greek islands near the Turkish coast and argues that parts of them are actually international waters. Turkish war ships and Turkish jet fighters cross them with increasing frequency, technically violating Greece's borders each time, and there is this constant cat and mouse thing going on with Greek jet fighters and Greek war ships trying to chase them away.
Things have become particularly delicate in regards to the Greek Imia islets lately - the islets are, by themselves, two tiny worthless rocks with no inhabitants, but the Turkish government has made a lot of noise lately on they are actually Turkish clay and - more drastically - Turkish ships have prevented Greek ships from coming near, let alone dock at them. The Greek side fears that Erdogan is looking to make the affair into a template for future clay expansion.
Here's more.

2.) The second dispute is similar in nature, and concerns Cyprus' territorial waters. the Cypriot government wants to start several economic investment activities in regards to Cyprus' deep sea resources, including in waters which are internationally recognized as Cypriot but which Turkey is claiming for for the Republic of Northern Cyprus. As is the case in the Aegean, Turkish war ships are preventing passage for Cypriot ships in certain areas inside Cypriot territorial waters.

Sounds like Cyprus and Greece need to grow a pair and tell turkey to sit the fuck down.

[Fahran]

Sounds like Cyprus and Greece need to grow a pair and tell turkey to sit the fuck down.

That's easier said than done.

[Salus Maior]

There are two main apples of discord between Turkey and Greece (and several smaller ones, but let's focus on the big disputes) right now:

1.) The first concerns the boundaries between Greek and Turkish territorial waters. The Turkish gov does not accept Greece's internationally recognized sea frontiers along several Greek islands near the Turkish coast and argues that parts of them are actually international waters. Turkish war ships and Turkish jet fighters cross them with increasing frequency, technically violating Greece's borders each time, and there is this constant cat and mouse thing going on with Greek jet fighters and Greek war ships trying to chase them away.
Things have become particularly delicate in regards to the Greek Imia islets lately - the islets are, by themselves, two tiny worthless rocks with no inhabitants, but the Turkish government has made a lot of noise lately on they are actually Turkish clay and - more drastically - Turkish ships have prevented Greek ships from coming near, let alone dock at them. The Greek side fears that Erdogan is looking to make the affair into a template for future clay expansion.
Here's more.

2.) The second dispute is similar in nature, and concerns Cyprus' territorial waters. the Cypriot government wants to start several economic investment activities in regards to Cyprus' deep sea resources, including in waters which are internationally recognized as Cypriot but which Turkey is claiming for for the Republic of Northern Cyprus. As is the case in the Aegean, Turkish war ships are preventing passage for Cypriot ships in certain areas inside Cypriot territorial waters.

Sounds like Cyprus and Greece need to grow a pair and tell turkey to sit the fuck down.

Cause that worked the last time they tried that.

[Auze]

Sounds like Cyprus and Greece need to grow a pair and tell turkey to sit the fuck down.

Cause that worked the last time they tried that.

When was that exactly(I'm not doubting just curious)? I know that the last war Greece fought with Turkey ended with Turkey ethnic cleansing the Greeks out of Thrace and Pontus.