Middle East Conflict Megathread (Syria, Iraq, Yemen, etc)

[Benuty]

Appereantly 52 dead and over 2000 wounded Palestinians during clashes over the US opening its embassy in Jerusalem.

Source

But don't worry, because America "First"!

Yes well, it only took 23 years, and since then-President Bill " I don't have the clap" Clinton has left office.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerusalem_Embassy_Act

[The Empire of Pretantia]

Friendly reminder that there is no need to feel sympathy for people who riot over an embassy being moved.

[Kvatchdom]

Friendly reminder that there is no need to feel sympathy for people who riot over an embassy being moved.

There is need for anger over shooting protesters however.

[The Empire of Pretantia]

Friendly reminder that there is no need to feel sympathy for people who riot over an embassy being moved.

There is need for anger over shooting protesters however.

What protesters? They were rioting.

[United Islamic Commonwealth]

There is need for anger over shooting protesters however.

What protesters? They were rioting.

Worst riot I've ever seen.

Absolutely vicious rioters.

Look at these vicious bastards with their signs and their flags and their utter insubordination. Why won't they just bow before the great Jewish state and the great Bibi?

[The Empire of Pretantia]

What protesters? They were rioting.

Worst riot I've ever seen.

Absolutely vicious rioters.

Look at these vicious bastards with their signs and their flags and their utter insubordination. Why won't they just bow before the great Jewish state and the great Bibi?

Sure, I could just show a picture of Antifa waving flags and claim they're not violent rioters. Doesn't mean they're not rioting outside of pictures.

I've already quoted an article that clearly stated they were throwing firebombs. I believe it was BBC. In fact, I just read a Stars and Stripes paper that said the same thing.

Come on Palestinians, you haven't had any part of Jerusalem for seventy years. Get over it.

[United Islamic Commonwealth]

Worst riot I've ever seen.

Absolutely vicious rioters.

Look at these vicious bastards with their signs and their flags and their utter insubordination. Why won't they just bow before the great Jewish state and the great Bibi?

Sure, I could just show a picture of Antifa waving flags and claim they're not violent rioters. Doesn't mean they're not rioting outside of pictures.

I've already quoted an article that clearly stated they were throwing firebombs. I believe it was BBC. In fact, I just read a Stars and Stripes paper that said the same thing.

Come on Palestinians, you haven't had any part of Jerusalem for seventy years. Get over it.

Hamas does not equal all Palestinian protestors, my dear friend. Interesting that of the 40 killed by April of this year, only 13 were members of "terrorist organizations". This is like saying that all civil rights activists were violent rioters because of the actions of groups like the Black Panthers.

[Negarakita]

Sure, I could just show a picture of Antifa waving flags and claim they're not violent rioters. Doesn't mean they're not rioting outside of pictures.

I've already quoted an article that clearly stated they were throwing firebombs. I believe it was BBC. In fact, I just read a Stars and Stripes paper that said the same thing.

Come on Palestinians, you haven't had any part of Jerusalem for seventy years. Get over it.

Hamas does not equal all Palestinian protestors, my dear friend. Interesting that of the 40 killed by April of this year, only 13 were members of "terrorist organizations". This is like saying that all civil rights activists were violent rioters because of the actions of groups like the Black Panthers.

In not being white they clearly were. A trait they share with their christian brothers in Palestine, as well as the muslims.

[The Empire of Pretantia]

Sure, I could just show a picture of Antifa waving flags and claim they're not violent rioters. Doesn't mean they're not rioting outside of pictures.

I've already quoted an article that clearly stated they were throwing firebombs. I believe it was BBC. In fact, I just read a Stars and Stripes paper that said the same thing.

Come on Palestinians, you haven't had any part of Jerusalem for seventy years. Get over it.

Hamas does not equal all Palestinian protestors, my dear friend. Interesting that of the 40 killed by April of this year, only 13 were members of "terrorist organizations". This is like saying that all civil rights activists were violent rioters because of the actions of groups like the Black Panthers.

I said nothing about Hamas.

[United Islamic Commonwealth]

Hamas does not equal all Palestinian protestors, my dear friend. Interesting that of the 40 killed by April of this year, only 13 were members of "terrorist organizations". This is like saying that all civil rights activists were violent rioters because of the actions of groups like the Black Panthers.

I said nothing about Hamas.

I did. Hamas were the violent ones. Not all protestors.

[MERIZoC]

Firstly, congrats to the Sadrists and the Communists for their victory in Iraq's elections earlier this week. Hopefully they will be able to lead the next government.

Now, news from Syria. https://twitter.com/withinsyriablog/sta ... 93664?s=21

Possibly reflective of Syria's "return to normalcy" so to speak, as the war winds down, with only one major rebel pocket remaining. It will take some work to destroy them, but the government will do it.

[Pilarcraft]

Kazerun has been in bloody protest for more than a day now. A city in the Fars province of Iran, a protest against a movement that would have divided the County of Kazerun into two turned violent when, by all accounts, the Government opened fire on unarmed protesters. I think seven have died by now, and there's been tons of property damage. Just to let you guys know.

[Negarakita]

Kazerun has been in bloody protest for more than a day now. A city in the Fars province of Iran, a protest against a movement that would have divided the County of Kazerun into two turned violent when, by all accounts, the Government opened fire on unarmed protesters. I think seven have died by now, and there's been tons of property damage. Just to let you guys know.

What are the factions?

[Pilarcraft]

Kazerun has been in bloody protest for more than a day now. A city in the Fars province of Iran, a protest against a movement that would have divided the County of Kazerun into two turned violent when, by all accounts, the Government opened fire on unarmed protesters. I think seven have died by now, and there's been tons of property damage. Just to let you guys know.

What are the factions?

Which factions? It's literally a public protest. The goal was nationalism (or, rather, its equivalent where a county (شهرستان) is concerned, I guess?). Might surprise you, but the recent protests in Iran don't exactly have factions.

[Negarakita]

What are the factions?

Which factions? It's literally a public protest. The goal was nationalism (or, rather, its equivalent where a county (شهرستان) is concerned, I guess?). Might surprise you, but the recent protests in Iran don't exactly have factions.

So what were they protesting about?

[Pilarcraft]

Which factions? It's literally a public protest. The goal was nationalism (or, rather, its equivalent where a county (شهرستان) is concerned, I guess?). Might surprise you, but the recent protests in Iran don't exactly have factions.

So what were they protesting about?

The official story (that I know of) is that the representative of one of the Kazerun County (شهرستان کازرون)'s cities proposed a plan to make said city into a new county, which got the people pissed. They've been holding rallies and protests against that for a couple of months now. The latest of these protests, which was held this thursday, was 'interrupted' by gunfire from either the Basij or the Police. Which got the city into full riot mode. Lots of cop vehicles burnt down, broken windows, injured/dead protestors, and poor, breaking phone and internet connection in and from the city. The few things I know (living in Tehran, which is north of Iran) come from the little that I have heard, and the official reports.

[Rio Cana]

Concerning the Yemen civil war. Found out that the United Emirates has defacto taken over Yemens Socatra archipelago. This part of Yemen was not involved in any of the fighting being far from the mainland. Some think UAE wants to annex them bacause of there strategic location. The Yemen government that the UAE is supporting (this includes there other allies like Arabia) are not at all please with this move by the UAE. They are busy pouring money which is just polarizing the people in that archipelago into two groups. One pro-UAE (because of the financial gain) and the other more nationalistic. Those islands use to be ruled by a sultan from Oman whose domain was divided between Yemen and Oman. This sultans family from Oman would not mind having these islands back.

Story on all the above - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 42621.html

Latest news. Seems a compromise has been reached -
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/05/ ... 40735.html

[Rio Cana]

Which factions? It's literally a public protest. The goal was nationalism (or, rather, its equivalent where a county (شهرستان) is concerned, I guess?). Might surprise you, but the recent protests in Iran don't exactly have factions.

So what were they protesting about?

City government corruption. Read this from VOA - https://www.voanews.com/a/hundreds-marc ... 97609.html

[Shofercia]

Didn't they get their butts kicked in most wars?

I'm sure as a Pole you'd sympathize

(I'm just messing around)

General Piłsudski is not amused.

I'll reply as soon as I can, Shof. I'll have you know this conversation is probably longer than half the essays I've written.

It's all good, you're cool and smart, so probably have a ton of stuff to do IRL. I know from personal experience, and besides, I have to respond to the second half of your post

[Fahran]

Sadly, it comes from experience. I saw votes given away in Russia in the 1996 Presidential Election in exchange for a month's supply of food.

That's unfortunate, though it's difficult to fault citizens for trying to fill their stomachs and provide for their families. It's not too dissimilar from the old Roman practice of patronage.

The problem is that in that area, the dictators are quite good at keeping the opposition separated from each other. Once they're toppled, the opposition goes into a "we don't trust you guys" mode very quickly and is instantly fractured. Heck, we've even seen this with the Kurds in Iraq. After the central authority falls, the people want their turf, and they trust their tribes over someone trying to build a coalition. Essentially, in order to ensure a smooth transition, a coalition has to be built before the intervention.

There's a slight difference between the Kurds and the Libyans though. The Kurds are motivated principally by nationalism, an overarching ideology quite distinct from local kinship ties and interests. In the case of Libya, the violence is often between individual cities, tribal affiliations, and the like, most extremely localized and often only loosely aligned with a higher authority. I do get your point though.

The problem with that is that the dictator will see who's who in the coalition, and focus his energies, (once it's determined that he's going to lose,) on suppressing its most centrist players, ensuring its failure, as a poison pill to those who intervened in his or her country. The best solution is to work out a gradual compromise, and ensure that said leader steps down "voluntarily", while being guaranteed a life of luxury. It sucks, but it's better than the alternative.

I actually don't disagree with this. It would probably be one of my preferred conclusions to the conflict in Syria, though Assad transitioning from an autocratic to a democratic leader within a federal framework would not perturb me all that much either. My principal complaint isn't necessarily against dictatorship, but rather against poor governance more generally. Qaddafi and Assad mismanaged the political life of their nations and neglected to ensure the welfare of a substantial number of people. They indulged in their appetites, stumbled into needless international squabbles, and alienated important allies. They would not have faced popular uprisings had they governed virtuously.

Karadzic wasn't involved with Kosovo. The original conflict was a mess. Kosovo was just NATO rubbing it in and showing their might to the World, by fucking over the Serbs, without realizing that it would be the first step of alienating the Russians. Whoops. I'm guessing the Chinese are thankful.

No, but Milosevic was charged with war crimes and human rights abuses pertaining to the ethnic violence in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as in Kosovo. Some of his cabinet officials have even stated that he played an important role in the military decisions made in the early nineties, insinuating at least some degree of culpability. I do not believe that Milosevic was an ultra-nationalist so much as a political opportunist though, at least judging from descriptions of his character.

So then you're not talking about an independent state, but rather a degree of autonomy - right?

Yes, though that could easily devolve into independence if caution is not employed. At the very least Rojava should probably receive a degree of autonomy. As you mentioned previously, the Turkish occupation could foster some degree of unity between Arabs and Kurds.

Numbers don't always dictate the course of battle. I think there was a case where an ISIS battalion ended up running in a SpetzNaz Platoon. The Russians took no casualties, inflicted massive casualties on ISIS, and achieved all of their objectives, while ISIS was forced to withdraw, demoralized and shamed, despite the Russians being outnumbered 30 to 1. Out of Libya's Military, on the brigade under the command of Khadaffi's son functioned properly, and it could've taken out ten brigades of its size with ease.

Qaddafi had mismanaged the military as well though. Had a force on par with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard met the rebels, it would have been a complete slaughter. As it happens, the Libyan army eventually broke and fell to peaces, and then everyone with a small grudge began defecting. Haftar for instance, though Qaddafi did stab him in the back before.

Oh, he could've wiped them out, but he wants international recognition, and he realized that he wouldn't get that if he wiped them out. He wasn't stopped militarily; he was stopped diplomatically. The GNC, in a military sense, is horrendously inept.

The GNC is horribly inept, but I'm not certain that Haftar would have the popular support to suppress all the tribal militias beyond Benghazi, his principal base of support. He'd almost be better off standing as a democratic leader, though I'm not certain he'd want to relinquish his hold on the military to do that.

I'm fairly certain that by this point, he's not worried about NATO dropping in his backyard, not to mention that most Americans are against yet another Middle Eastern quagmire.

You're right on that front, hence his violating red lines with impunity.

While it would be fun to partition the Balkans street by street, just because I'd get a kick out of pronouncing their street names, I doubt that would be effective. However, North Kosovo has clear cut boundaries, and the extreme majority of its citizenry want to be with Serbia. Crimea's Reclamation certainly didn't raise any local boundary issues; why should North Kosovo's?

You're forgetting about the Crimean Tartars and a decent number of ethnic Ukrainians, both of whom had rather vocal reservations about the reclamation of Crimea. Just as I don't expect Russia to partition the Crimea to appease ethnic minorities, I'm skeptical that Kosovo would bother ceding its northern territories to Syria under the present circumstances.

The local police wasn't on board. However, judging by the lack of investigation at the national level, it sounds like they were completely on board, or at the very least not even remotely interested in investigating mass murder.

I'm not so certain the Ukrainian government has the ability to adequately and objectively investigate the incident at the moment, especially in light of the prevailing turmoil across the country. That said, they're not promoting mass genocide like the Turks did back in the 1910's and 1920's.

Secession is a serious issue. It's not something that the people take lightly. The California Secession Referendums are a joke. The ones in Ukraine are serious. There's a reason for that. And it's not just Russia.

I would say that the Russian move to annex Crimea was certainly bolstered by the Russian majority living there though. It's not quite as simple as Ukraine's government mismanaging matters. National identities and interests have impacted the process as well. And I'm glad you would oppose a referendum to have my executed.

[Fahran]

It's all good, you're cool and smart, so probably have a ton of stuff to do IRL. I know from personal experience, and besides, I have to respond to the second half of your post

Likewise. You know more about Russia than almost anyone I've had to pleasure of debating. It's informative. And pleasant. It's weird because I don't think we got along at all last time we debated. I was a bit rougher then though, so I'll take responsibility for that. I normally take forever on everything, so thank you for not taking the delay too personally.

[Shofercia]

But why should he deal with someone other than the SDF? The others have been supported from abroad, arguably illegally, and definitely illegally under Syrian Law, they started the Civil War, (at least from Assad's perspective,) they lost, and now he has to grant them concessions?

To prevent a future conflict principally. Content people are less inclined to rebel than those who have nothing to lose and the trickle of emigrants from Syria does not bode well for future economic development. He could go about it in a multitude of ways, especially given that he does retain some support from certain Sunni groups. Alleviating poverty in the rural countryside for instance would address a major grievance that has festered for years.

I agree that he should definitely work to alleviate poverty in rural areas. For me that's part of his duties, so I didn't view that as a concession, but I see what you're saying.

Kadyrov might be nasty, but how's he corrupt?

Source.

Russia itself remains a hotbed of corruption in Europe, and is arguably more corrupt than Ukraine or Moldova. It's not especially surprising that the state formerly dominated by warlords has become a similar bastion of corruption, especially given the degree of power wielded by Kadyrov and oligarchs more generally.

Russia is perceived as being more corrupt than Moldova and Ukraine, but it's clearly not the case. Corruption harms economic growth, so one of the things we can see, is how the economy grew over time when compared to other SSRs. Ukraine's economy was fucked. At one point in time, Ukraine had the same GDP PPP per capita as Belarus. According to World Bank Data, Belarus: $18,060; Ukraine: $8,272. Ouch! Russia is nowhere near that bad. Not even close.

Moving on to Kadyrov - let's take the two examples that your source offered, buying vehicles for the Chechen Branch of the Night Wolves, and paying Mike Tyson to box with himself. I highly doubt that boxing with Kadyrov is the only thing that Tyson did; I think he was in Chechnya to promote sports, and spent some time with the kids as well, not just Kadyrov. A cursory search will show photos of Tyson mingling with Chechen kids.

Tyson is a legend in the Caucasus. Although I don't have the specific data, I know that after his arrival in the Caucasus, sport participation went up dramatically. Kids saw a legend kicking Dear Leader's butt, saw him do it cleanly, and wanted to play that sport. Chechnya still struggles with youth unemployment, so by promoting youth sports, you place kids into sports, and hence they avoid becoming drug dealers, avoid loitering needlessly, and don't cause problems for the region in general. How many kids did Tyson inspire? How many drug dealers did his arrival in Chechnya deprive of future workforce? I've no idea, but I wouldn't call paying him - corruption.

Next up - the Night Wolves. I think that we can both agree that rape is a bad thing. The Night Wolves, and similar organizations, punish rapists quite severely, and thus prevent others from getting it on without consent. I view the purchase of vehicles for the Night Wolves as providing vehicles to an organization that provides community services, rather than corruption. As a result, those two examples aren't enough to persuade me that Kadyrov is corrupt. As far as the 10% fund is concerned - so what? Based on the Tyson story and the Night Wolves, it seems to do more good than harm. Are the collectors pricks? Perhaps. Are they corrupt? Not seeing that.

That's irrelevant. The Baltic Governments voluntarily, without any coercive pressure from Russia, signed the European Human Rights Treaties. Now they have to abide by them. Or they can give Russian the same status as the language has in Germany, as well as the states of New York and California. That Baltics used those treaties to invite businesses to jump start their economy. If they want to reverse course, they should be able to explain to their citizens, why businesses are now actively boycotting them.

So countries should be compelled by international pressure to abide by treaties they voluntarily enter? I've pretty much been advocating for that this entire time.

Tell that to Trump, whose withdrawal from the Iran Treaty is destabilizing the Middle East.

China and India are both in the SCO, as is Pakistan, as are most Central Asian countries. I doubt that China or India would risk their SCO status to piss off Russia in a relatively minor Central Asian Republic. Same can be said for Russia.

I'm not certain how China and India exercising soft power would risk their SCO status. I'm not proposing that they'd invade Siberia or anything. I'm merely stating that power is likely to shift from Moscow to Beijing and New Delhi as time passes. Washington will experience a similar trend as well eventually. In point of fact, Beijing has been gaining an increasing amount of soft power for decades.

Of course, but I'm not sure that Beijing is going to use said soft power to mess with Moscow. Ditto for India, who needs Russian support in the SCO moreso than other members. Furthermore, in Central Asia the days of the USSR are sorely missed, because of the loss of Social Rights, so as long as the Russia-friendly Governments continue to slowly increase Social Rights...

Glorious description of economic landscapes in Russia and Ukraine.

Interesting.

The Kiev "Government's" ability to fuck their own people never ceases to amaze me. Right now they're switching from the European Healthcare Model to the American Healthcare Model. The European Healthcare Model is superior in all aspects to the American Healthcare Model. And yet, they're switching. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians rioted and started dismembering their "Government" members limb by limb.

There's such a thing as the Corruption Perception Index, which is different than actual corruption. Moldova made the list of most corrupt countries in Europe, because they failed to secure their bank funds. Whoops. Don't use local banks when investing in Moldova. Russia has major corruption issues, but, as I've said before, there are clear rules of engagement.

Essentially, the circumstances in Ukraine are so terrible that many would prefer Russian governance? I'm inclined to point out that this support appears confined to the Russian ethnic minority though, with younger people and non-Russians generally opposing it. Crimean Tartars have a number of grievances for instance and Putin seems content to have them brushed away.

Actually, that's a Western Media myth. I'll respond with more information, data, and analysis in another post, but the Tatars living in Crimea, (I'm not going to separate those who are Tatars from those who are Crimean Tatars, because Tatars are going to Tatar,) are very much pro-Russia, after Putin yielded to certain education reforms, on the advice of Konstantinov. There's oppression, but it's oppression of a political party that's genuinely attempting to start a civil war in Russia, (and failing quite miserably,) so I don't particularly mind that oppression. Starting civil wars in nuclear countries is a bad thing.

Erm, with the exception of the Baltic States, nearly all other SSRs follow a clear trend: the more pro-Russian they are, the better off they are economically. The other exception to the rule is Turkmenistan, solely because they get a ton of income from Natural Gas.

The ones in Central Europe are doing relatively well, and they maintain closer relationships with Germany and the EU than they do with Russia. The Baltic states fall into that category as well, as you mentioned. This makes logical sense given that Germany and the EU have more economic clout than Russia and have cultural traditions that probably appeal more to those European states.

My primary issue with the Baltic States is that they boldly discriminate against the Russian Language. I really wish they'd follow the EU line on that, or the US policy. It's not like the Russian Language is going to invade them. Also, I was talking about SSRs, you're talking about Warsaw Pact

That's true, and the other issue is that there's no strong armed forces willing to enforce peace. They did quite well between the early 1950s and late 1970s, when the Red Army would slap any troublemaker silly.

Time to establish Greater Armenia.

Led by President Kardashian!

Yep - I was born in the USSR. Moved to the US for college. Stuck around for a job. Capitalism works, unless it's applied to healthcare. Then you need something like the Swiss Version. Interestingly enough, I dated a Pashto girl in college. That was an interesting experience. Wasn't a long relationship, but I definitely learned a lot, and was humbled a bit. I'm sure she was too, although I doubt she'll admit it

Interesting. I might have to throw random questions at you from time to time if you'll allow it.

We women are never humbled, just temporarily taken aback.

Please do, and thank you for the insight!

[Shofercia]

Sadly, it comes from experience. I saw votes given away in Russia in the 1996 Presidential Election in exchange for a month's supply of food.

That's unfortunate, though it's difficult to fault citizens for trying to fill their stomachs and provide for their families. It's not too dissimilar from the old Roman practice of patronage.

Of course. I don't blame the citizens, I'm just pointing out that without Social Rights, it's very easy to take away Civil Rights, unless we're talking about Hollywood.

The problem is that in that area, the dictators are quite good at keeping the opposition separated from each other. Once they're toppled, the opposition goes into a "we don't trust you guys" mode very quickly and is instantly fractured. Heck, we've even seen this with the Kurds in Iraq. After the central authority falls, the people want their turf, and they trust their tribes over someone trying to build a coalition. Essentially, in order to ensure a smooth transition, a coalition has to be built before the intervention.

There's a slight difference between the Kurds and the Libyans though. The Kurds are motivated principally by nationalism, an overarching ideology quite distinct from local kinship ties and interests. In the case of Libya, the violence is often between individual cities, tribal affiliations, and the like, most extremely localized and often only loosely aligned with a higher authority. I do get your point though.

If that's the case, explain this: https://warontherocks.com/2017/10/debun ... -and-iran/

Iraqi forces did not “invade” Kirkuk. Rather, they entered Iraqi state territory through a negotiated settlement with some Kurdish officials. According to PUK official Bafel Talabani, the withdrawal of Peshmerga forces was essentially a tactical retreat from the Iraqi Army’s superior military power. It was an expected consequence of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s territorial overreach and the over-determined capabilities of its defense structures – unfortunately, however, not one expected by Barzani. Although the Kurdish security apparatus, including Peshmerga forces, courageously helped to push back ISIL, it is inherently vulnerable and internally divided.

Put more bluntly: one Kurdish faction betrayed another, and as a result the Iraqis took Kirkuk.

The problem with that is that the dictator will see who's who in the coalition, and focus his energies, (once it's determined that he's going to lose,) on suppressing its most centrist players, ensuring its failure, as a poison pill to those who intervened in his or her country. The best solution is to work out a gradual compromise, and ensure that said leader steps down "voluntarily", while being guaranteed a life of luxury. It sucks, but it's better than the alternative.

I actually don't disagree with this. It would probably be one of my preferred conclusions to the conflict in Syria, though Assad transitioning from an autocratic to a democratic leader within a federal framework would not perturb me all that much either. My principal complaint isn't necessarily against dictatorship, but rather against poor governance more generally. Qaddafi and Assad mismanaged the political life of their nations and neglected to ensure the welfare of a substantial number of people. They indulged in their appetites, stumbled into needless international squabbles, and alienated important allies. They would not have faced popular uprisings had they governed virtuously.

That's true, but that can be said about the majority of Governments. Should all of them be toppled? If not, how do we handle the issue?

Karadzic wasn't involved with Kosovo. The original conflict was a mess. Kosovo was just NATO rubbing it in and showing their might to the World, by fucking over the Serbs, without realizing that it would be the first step of alienating the Russians. Whoops. I'm guessing the Chinese are thankful.

No, but Milosevic was charged with war crimes and human rights abuses pertaining to the ethnic violence in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as in Kosovo. Some of his cabinet officials have even stated that he played an important role in the military decisions made in the early nineties, insinuating at least some degree of culpability. I do not believe that Milosevic was an ultra-nationalist so much as a political opportunist though, at least judging from descriptions of his character.

Fair enough, although the very same cabinet officials could've made those claims to get a lighter sentence. However, I'm talking about Kosovo, rather than the Yugoslav Civil War. North Kosovo has clear borders, which are, at least de facto, internationally recognized. Why not let them hold their own Referendum, like the Albanians had in South Kosovo?

So then you're not talking about an independent state, but rather a degree of autonomy - right?

Yes, though that could easily devolve into independence if caution is not employed. At the very least Rojava should probably receive a degree of autonomy. As you mentioned previously, the Turkish occupation could foster some degree of unity between Arabs and Kurds.

I'm all for major autonomy gains for Rojava, provided that its people support autonomy. And if it leads to independence over time, I'd be ok with that, provided that enough time passes and it's not a spur of the moment decision.

Numbers don't always dictate the course of battle. I think there was a case where an ISIS battalion ended up running in a SpetzNaz Platoon. The Russians took no casualties, inflicted massive casualties on ISIS, and achieved all of their objectives, while ISIS was forced to withdraw, demoralized and shamed, despite the Russians being outnumbered 30 to 1. Out of Libya's Military, on the brigade under the command of Khadaffi's son functioned properly, and it could've taken out ten brigades of its size with ease.

Qaddafi had mismanaged the military as well though. Had a force on par with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard met the rebels, it would have been a complete slaughter. As it happens, the Libyan army eventually broke and fell to peaces, and then everyone with a small grudge began defecting. Haftar for instance, though Qaddafi did stab him in the back before.

Haftar defected long before that. Being betrayed for doing your duty by the man whom you worshiped, is going to leave a very sour taste in your mouth.

Oh, he could've wiped them out, but he wants international recognition, and he realized that he wouldn't get that if he wiped them out. He wasn't stopped militarily; he was stopped diplomatically. The GNC, in a military sense, is horrendously inept.

The GNC is horribly inept, but I'm not certain that Haftar would have the popular support to suppress all the tribal militias beyond Benghazi, his principal base of support. He'd almost be better off standing as a democratic leader, though I'm not certain he'd want to relinquish his hold on the military to do that.

If he relinquishes his hold on the military, he relinquishes his power base. He gets that. You don't want to be a democratic leader in name only. You need to be able to carry out your decisions, otherwise someone like Andrew Jackson might come along and say: "Haftar has made his decision, now let him enforce it!"

I'm fairly certain that by this point, he's not worried about NATO dropping in his backyard, not to mention that most Americans are against yet another Middle Eastern quagmire.

You're right on that front, hence his violating red lines with impunity.

The problem is that now he might also be framed for it. If you want to go after a known car thief, it'd be easier to frame him for a car theft. I think we should have international monitors on the ground from all five UNSC permanent members, working together to prevent these abuses, but I doubt that they'll agree.

While it would be fun to partition the Balkans street by street, just because I'd get a kick out of pronouncing their street names, I doubt that would be effective. However, North Kosovo has clear cut boundaries, and the extreme majority of its citizenry want to be with Serbia. Crimea's Reclamation certainly didn't raise any local boundary issues; why should North Kosovo's?

You're forgetting about the Crimean Tartars and a decent number of ethnic Ukrainians, both of whom had rather vocal reservations about the reclamation of Crimea. Just as I don't expect Russia to partition the Crimea to appease ethnic minorities, I'm skeptical that Kosovo would bother ceding its northern territories to Syria under the present circumstances.

I doubt that Kosovo will be ceding anything to Syria

Yes, I know you meant Serbia, and I think that, eventually, Kosovo will do that, but I just wanted to be a smartass. Anyways, onto Crimea. One of the interesting things about Crimea, is that the Russians opened it up to International Tourism, and opened full access to Crimea. It's the West that's been punishing, or attempting to punish people for merely traveling to Crimea. So if the West is claiming that Russians are oppressing the People of Crimea, why not let their citizens travel to Crimea and be appalled? And if the Russians are so oppressive in Crimea, why open the floodgates and let oppression flow out of Russia? And where's all the news about the Crimean Oppression that's backed up by major factual trends?

The reality is that Crimea's not oppressed. By Russian Standards, by Eastern European Standards, or even by European Standards, Crimeans are loving it. One of the best sources on Russia is Russia Insider, because it's citizen journalism at its finest. Speaking of Crimea: https://russia-insider.com/en/case-crim ... ation/5584

During his interview, President Putin stated that prior to Crimea’s annexation by Russia, a covert poll was conducted, showing 75% of Crimeans favoring unity with Russia. This is backed up by the results from RIA News, at 77%, and from Sevastopol News, at 80%...

After the Referendum, the Crimeans continued to tell anyone who’d listen in the West, through polling, that they wanted to be with Russia and that in their eyes the Referendum was legitimate, whether it’s Gallup’s 83% figure, GFK’s 82% figure, or Pew’s 88% figure. Irrespective of how the Crimean Referendum was conducted, the Will of the Crimean People is clear: Unity with Russia.

The Referendum’s numbers are similar. Roughly 80.4% of Crimeans turned out to vote on the Referendum and voted yes, as did 85.6% of the residents of Sevastopol. Considering that roughly about 15% of Crimeans live in Sevastopol, and 85% in the Peninsula, after adjusting those numbers we get a general voting tally of 81.2%, which is within the legitimate margin of error of 80%. The increase from 75% to 80% can easily be explained by President Putin’s pledge to provide massive economic assistance to Crimea.

Just the pure facts. I love it! With that said, let's take a look at the Demographics of Crimea:

Russians - 65%
Ukrainians - 16%
Tatars - 12%
Others - 7%

For the sake of the argument, let's presume that Others and Ukrainians voted 90% like Russians. It's already a very generous assumption, but let's roll with it. We have that data - Sevastopol is primarily Russian, and even the Ukrainians in Sevastopol have been Russified. Even in Sevastopol, 14.4% of the residents opposed the Referendum, or didn't show up to the polls. So let's do some math: 65*0.856+23*0.856*0.9 = 55.64+17.72 = 73.36%. But the vote was 80.4%. Where's the other 7% coming from? Why the Crimean Tatars. But wait - they're 12% of the population, and 7% voted? That means the majority of Crimean Tatars supported Unity with Russia as well. How's that possible? Did CNN lie?

Of course. In fact, the Crimean Tatar "leadership" in Crimea was able to amass just 62,448 votes in the 2006 Crimean local election. By 2010, their numbers fell to 51,253 votes. They don't represent the Crimean Tatars. They represent their own wallets. But how many Americans are going to look at local Crimean Election Results? So the Western Press continues to brazenly lie and portray them as representatives of the Crimean Tatars, and anyone pointing out the facts is a Russian Bot.

[Shofercia]

The local police wasn't on board. However, judging by the lack of investigation at the national level, it sounds like they were completely on board, or at the very least not even remotely interested in investigating mass murder.

I'm not so certain the Ukrainian government has the ability to adequately and objectively investigate the incident at the moment, especially in light of the prevailing turmoil across the country. That said, they're not promoting mass genocide like the Turks did back in the 1910's and 1920's.

That's a very low standard for a European country in the 21st century.

Secession is a serious issue. It's not something that the people take lightly. The California Secession Referendums are a joke. The ones in Ukraine are serious. There's a reason for that. And it's not just Russia.

I would say that the Russian move to annex Crimea was certainly bolstered by the Russian majority living there though. It's not quite as simple as Ukraine's government mismanaging matters. National identities and interests have impacted the process as well. And I'm glad you would oppose a referendum to have my executed.

Can't have you executed just yet, since I'm enjoying our debate. Once that's finished...

Nah, I'm just messing around. Not a fan of killing cool people like you. And national identities certainly impacted the process, but two decades of economic oppression ensured eventual Crimean Unity with Russia.

It's all good, you're cool and smart, so probably have a ton of stuff to do IRL. I know from personal experience, and besides, I have to respond to the second half of your post

Likewise. You know more about Russia than almost anyone I've had to pleasure of debating. It's informative. And pleasant. It's weird because I don't think we got along at all last time we debated. I was a bit rougher then though, so I'll take responsibility for that. I normally take forever on everything, so thank you for not taking the delay too personally.

I don't take delays personally, I'm very slow with my responses. Wait, did you say you take forever on everything? I'm sorry, I have to:

Sowwy

[MERIZoC]

Damascus has been fully liberated.