Middle East Conflict Megathread (Syria, Iraq, Yemen, etc)

[Improved werpland]

Then you don't bluff.

The Syrian Arab Army The Iranian Army is winning, slowly yet surely. It's more important to regain land from FSA and ISIS, then it is to push other armies out of Syria, at least for now. Slow and steady wins the race. Swift invasions gets you ISIS in Iraq.

Fixed it for you. :^)

[Costa Fierro]

My main hope is that Russia recognizes the need to assist the Kurds sooner rather than later. Turkey's ethnic cleansing of Afrin is an attack on both the Kurds and Syria as a whole, and should be met with force from those who oppose ISIS and other jihadis.

"Ethnic cleansing"? Have you been on the YPG's Twitter page again?

[Shofercia]

No, you don't know anything.

Turkey supporting militantly anti-Russian rebels (who are so anti-Russian that they down Russian aircraft) is not Turkish cooperation with Russia.

I believe you fail to see the bigger picture here. Yes, Turkey supports rebels, just like Russia supports the government. Those two hate eachother, Turkey and Russia do not, they only have conflicted interests in Syria.
Fact is that Russia wants out of the Syrian conflict, fact is also that Turkey is the biggest player concerning the rebels, so cooperating with Turkey is the most logical step towards peace.

Also, 'who are so anti-Russian that they down Russian aircraft'

Let's forget the fact that these aircrafts were bombing them.

If Al Sham would be so kind as to genuinely negotiate and stop raping women randomly, Russia would be glad to stop bombing them. Also, Russia doesn't want to leave Syria and there's still work to be done. It's just easier to let Turkey fail against the Kurds, than it is to explain to Erdogan why what he's doing is wrong.

If Putin really wanted, he can make the Russo-Syrian Alliance very officially hot.

Like:

"From now on, Syrian Arab Republic and Russian Federation are military allies. Any third country conducting military operations on sovereign Syrian territory will cease their activity and leave in 24 hours, or Russian Federation will be forced to declare war, including usage of both tactical and strategic nuclear weapons."


He can at least say that. Things would be interesting.

Thing is, he would effectively force himself to spend even more resources on this war, resources he doesn't want to spend on it. Russia doesn't need an alliance with Syria to avoid it being invaded by foreign powers.

Russia has a de facto alliance with Syria, but the Syrian Government hasn't yet regained enough Syrian land for Russia to make that statement. The better tactic would be to limit supply lines to the US base, and force the Americans to withdraw, which would require more land acquisition. If in 2015 someone would've said that the Russo-Iranian intervention would've caused the Syrians to regain all land west of the Euphrates, he or she would've been painted as a crazy conspiracy theorist by the press; today it's a reality.

The Syrian Arab Army The Iranian Army is winning, slowly yet surely. It's more important to regain land from FSA and ISIS, then it is to push other armies out of Syria, at least for now. Slow and steady wins the race. Swift invasions gets you ISIS in Iraq.

Fixed it for you. :^)

It's more of a team effort by Russia, Iran, and Syria.

[Socialist Czechia]

And what happens when the US and Turkey don't leave? I'd rather not have Putin repeat Obama's Red Line mistake - you can't make bluffs in the Middle East.

(Image)

No bluff: Turkish units will then be targeted by tactical nukes from Russian missiles and supersonic bombers. To show who's dead serious here.

Then will be up to them and Americans, if they want World War 3 and risk extinction of Mankind for stupid Syria.


But as I said, it's 'if Putin really wanted': he doesn't really want it, since he's no pal of Kurds and while Russian never stopped to consider Turks an animals and enemies of Orthodox Church, he's a pragmatic guy.

[Pilarcraft]

The Seventh Golestan in Tehran is turning into a fucking urban warzone. The Revolutionary guards and the Basij are trying to arrest some Dervish bigwig in the region, and Dervishes from all over the country are there in protests. there was actual hostilities last night, and I am starting to think another might start again.
god, is there anyone this regime won't antagonize in this country?

[Socialist Czechia]

I still blame British and the last incompetent Shahanshah of Persia.

[Pilarcraft]

I still blame British and the last incompetent Shahanshah of Persia.

I don't. no matter what you'd say about his policies in economy or social issues, Muhammad Reza Pahlavi, at his worst (the Mordad Coup) was still better than any of the leadership of the Islamic Republic at their fucking best. At least he didn't openly try to fuck up his own country. honestly, some of the stuff that this regime is doing here are impossible to do by accident. you have to be intentionally trying to make people suffocate for Tehran to be so polluted all the time.

[Durin VII]

I believe you fail to see the bigger picture here. Yes, Turkey supports rebels, just like Russia supports the government. Those two hate eachother, Turkey and Russia do not, they only have conflicted interests in Syria.
Fact is that Russia wants out of the Syrian conflict, fact is also that Turkey is the biggest player concerning the rebels, so cooperating with Turkey is the most logical step towards peace.

Also, 'who are so anti-Russian that they down Russian aircraft'

Let's forget the fact that these aircrafts were bombing them.

If Al Sham would be so kind as to genuinely negotiate and stop raping women randomly, Russia would be glad to stop bombing them. Also, Russia doesn't want to leave Syria and there's still work to be done. It's just easier to let Turkey fail against the Kurds, than it is to explain to Erdogan why what he's doing is wrong.

Doesn't matter. Enemies in war will obviously attack one another, whether they hate each other or not.

Russia does want to leave Syria and has effectively made efforts to do so ever since it got involved. It has already been forced to put in more resources than it ever wanted.

The Turkish intervention/invasion is simply something Russia doesn't care about, and thus it isn't going to waste any resources on it.

Thing is, he would effectively force himself to spend even more resources on this war, resources he doesn't want to spend on it. Russia doesn't need an alliance with Syria to avoid it being invaded by foreign powers.

Russia has a de facto alliance with Syria, but the Syrian Government hasn't yet regained enough Syrian land for Russia to make that statement. The better tactic would be to limit supply lines to the US base, and force the Americans to withdraw, which would require more land acquisition. If in 2015 someone would've said that the Russo-Iranian intervention would've caused the Syrians to regain all land west of the Euphrates, he or she would've been painted as a crazy conspiracy theorist by the press; today it's a reality.

Russia won't make such a statement though, not even when Syria has regained more land. Russia doesn't want to commit to Syria in such a way, nor does it need to.

I still blame British and the last incompetent Shahanshah of Persia.

I don't. no matter what you'd say about his policies in economy or social issues, Muhammad Reza Pahlavi, at his worst (the Mordad Coup) was still better than any of the leadership of the Islamic Republic at their fucking best. At least he didn't openly try to fuck up his own country. honestly, some of the stuff that this regime is doing here are impossible to do by accident. you have to be intentionally trying to make people suffocate for Tehran to be so polluted all the time.

'Muhammad Reza Pahlavi, at his worst (the Mordad Coup) was still better than any of the leadership of the Islamic Republic at their fucking best.'
I disagree.

'At least he didn't openly try to fuck up his own country.'
Obviously he did, and he wasn't ashamed of it either.

[Baltenstein]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42932616

I guess we will see a fresh wave of World War III speculations, even though Turkey's downing of Russian warplane in 2015 did not lead to one (even with Erdoğan, Turkey is still a NATO member).

A terrorist group does terrorist things. Why would that lead to any such speculation?

My main hope is that Russia recognizes the need to assist the Kurds sooner rather than later. Turkey's ethnic cleansing of Afrin is an attack on both the Kurds and Syria as a whole, and should be met with force from those who oppose ISIS and other jihadis.

Why? The Russians won't help the Kurds against Turkey, seeing how they don't need them (they already have the Syrian government as "their guy" in Syria) and the Turkish military will eventually leave again after fucking up the Kurds' infrastructure and military capabilities enough, thus making it easier for the Syrian government to take over and bring the region under its direct control again. As an additional bonus, from a Russian perspective, all the Islamist rebels that Turkey is using as cannon fodder against the YPG - in order to minimize the number of Turkish body bags - are missing at fronts where the Syrian government is advancing. As an extra additional bonus Turkey's actions in Northern Syria are causing a direct conflict of interest between the NATO members Turkey and the US.
There's not really anything to gain for Russia from confronting Turkey over the Kurds.

[Durin VII]

The Russian pilot is dead. The SOHR claims the pilot was killed when he resisted captivity, the rebels on the other hand claim he was already dead when they reached him.

[Internationalist Bastard]

The Russian pilot is dead. The SOHR claims the pilot was killed when he resisted captivity, the rebels on the other hand claim he was already dead when they reached him.

FSA?

[Durin VII]

The Russian pilot is dead. The SOHR claims the pilot was killed when he resisted captivity, the rebels on the other hand claim he was already dead when they reached him.

FSA?

Tahrir al-Sham (Al-Qaeda in Syria) claimed the attack.

[Internationalist Bastard]

FSA?

Tahrir al-Sham (Al-Qaeda in Syria) claimed the attack.

Damn shame

[Rangila]

FSA?

Tahrir al-Sham (Al-Qaeda in Syria) claimed the attack.

Same pigs different flag.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Tahrir al-Sham (Al-Qaeda in Syria) claimed the attack.

Same pigs different flag.

Eh, not all the FSA is bad

[Rangila]

Same pigs different flag.

Eh, not all the FSA is bad

No, all of it is bad.

All terrorists are bad.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Eh, not all the FSA is bad

No, all of it is bad.

All terrorists are bad.

Some of the groups in the FSA actually are just legitimately rebels

[Rangila]

No, all of it is bad.

All terrorists are bad.

Some of the groups in the FSA actually are just legitimately rebels

Terrorists. Legitimately terrorists.

Every last one of them is.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Some of the groups in the FSA actually are just legitimately rebels

Terrorists. Legitimately terrorists.

Every last one of them is.

Well considering that there’s like, twenty groups in the FSA, and I only can find terrorist activities on a few of those groups

[Durin VII]

Terrorists. Legitimately terrorists.

Every last one of them is.

Well considering that there’s like, twenty groups in the FSA, and I only can find terrorist activities on a few of those groups

More like thirty if the list is still up-to-date.
In any case, the FSA has become almost non-existant, they already became a secondary force in the conflict and the only reason they still hold some ground is due to the support from Turkey, 'the coalition' and Tahrir al-Sham. Whether it's for good or worse, the FSA is pretty much dead already.

[Jordkloden]

Well considering that there’s like, twenty groups in the FSA, and I only can find terrorist activities on a few of those groups

More like thirty if the list is still up-to-date.
In any case, the FSA has become almost non-existant, they already became a secondary force in the conflict and the only reason they still hold some ground is due to the support from Turkey, 'the coalition' and Tahrir al-Sham. Whether it's for good or worse, the FSA is pretty much dead already.

I thought the FSA wasn't really backed by the coalition anymore and was almost exclusively supported by Turkey? I thought the coalition moved on to the SDF.

[Durin VII]

More like thirty if the list is still up-to-date.
In any case, the FSA has become almost non-existant, they already became a secondary force in the conflict and the only reason they still hold some ground is due to the support from Turkey, 'the coalition' and Tahrir al-Sham. Whether it's for good or worse, the FSA is pretty much dead already.

I thought the FSA wasn't really backed by the coalition anymore and was almost exclusively supported by Turkey? I thought the coalition moved on to the SDF.

You're right and wrong at the same time.
I think it really depends on what countries you include into the 'coalition', and what you see as 'support'.

[Jordkloden]

I thought the FSA wasn't really backed by the coalition anymore and was almost exclusively supported by Turkey? I thought the coalition moved on to the SDF.

You're right and wrong at the same time.
I think it really depends on what countries you include into the 'coalition', and what you see as 'support'.

In that case, what do you consider the coalition and how do you define support?

[MERIZoC]

https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/960117939423862784

Turkey has some lovely new friends.

[Jordkloden]

https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/960117939423862784

Turkey has some lovely new friends.

Marvelous. May the SDF hold out.