Trump MAGAthread VII

[Seangoli]

11 Marine National Monuments and Sanctuaries are of course under threat too

According to the attached document, 7 of those sanctuaries were expanded by Obama. Why am I not surprised?

It's almost like one of the worst environmental marine disasters occurred under the Obama administration, which still has lasting impacts on not only marine life in the region but also the local economies that relied on them.

Weird.

[Valrifell]

With a 36% Approval Rating?

There's a while to go. I know it seems like it's been ages, but actually half a year which is only an eighth of one term.

You and I think he's fucked up enough just in that short time, that he can't possibly turn it around, but the voters generally are not all convinced.
That 36%? Yes it's pretty bad, it's 'unelectedable' as it stands. But it's really remarkable how long it has held around there. Voters haven't given up on Trump yet.

But that's not the direction his ratings are going. His masterful 40th dimensional backgammon tweets are still causing people to be put off to him through how unprofessional and stupid he sounds, and it doesn't seen like the American public are fully ready to stomach this kind of behavior quite yet. Not to mention all the scandals which, in fact, are still being brought up again. And Hell, on a slow day, you might even see people talk about the "boring" details of healthcare.

He could recover, yes, but it would primarily require to keep his big fucking mouth shut for a few months at worst. The only people he's going to keep at this rate are the most rabid of Trump supporters, and they can't carry elections single-handedly.

The other option is a massive domestic issue like a massive terrorist attack that Trump handles well.

Most people saying he'll get reelected now and Democrats are fucked already (with a mid-30s approval rating) are either blinded by cynicism or partisanship. He could improve, but saying he's guaranteed election is fucking laughable.

[Vassenor]

According to the attached document, 7 of those sanctuaries were expanded by Obama. Why am I not surprised?

It's almost like one of the worst environmental marine disasters occurred under the Obama administration, which still has lasting impacts on not only marine life in the region but also the local economies that relied on them.

Weird.

Did Obama personally blow up Deepwater Horizon or something then?

[Seangoli]

It's almost like one of the worst environmental marine disasters occurred under the Obama administration, which still has lasting impacts on not only marine life in the region but also the local economies that relied on them.

Weird.

Did Obama personally blow up Deepwater Horizon or something then?

You miss the point. Likely one of the reasons that he expanded the marine sanctuaries was in no small part directly the result of the Deepwater Horizon disaster, and the fallout from the event. Alas, people have very short memories about these things. Everybody wants to protect things after we fuck them up, but a few years down the road they suddenly think the environment is invincible.

[Seangoli]

8 years? Shit, you're even more pessimistic than I am

He is probably right. I thought I understood his supporters. A branch of the family is in that camp. After the last election; I admit I don't. The one image that still plays in my head was an interview with a Kentucky coal miner. Making america great is a myth. The coal jobs aren't returning. I am going to be worse off. I still support him.
Then there was this old woman who said obamacare saved her grandchild. Loosing it will be dangerous but she still supports him.

I used this think he was guaranteed to at the most of having one term. I am not so sure now.

Allow may to paint you a picture.

A Coal mine recently opened. The coal mine has been planned for years now, the permits were approved by the Obama administration, the financing was done during the Obama administration, and they have been planning to break ground this year for years. By all accounts, this was an Obama era coal mine that Trump had nothing to do with.

Everybody in the town is thanking fucking Trump for sticking to his word and letting the coal mine to open. The Trumpist delusion ignores all reality and facts. They ignore that during most of the Obama administration, Coal jobs were at a 30 year high. They ignore the fact that everybody who actually works in the coal industry knows and states that what is killing coal as an energy source is cheap natural gas, and nothing else. They ignore the god damn facts, and just stick to the narrative.

[AiliailiA]

Eh?
CDU/CSU (Germany) 42%
Liberal (Australia) 42%
Liberal (Canada) 39%

Much more 3rd-etc-party vote than in the US, they're all plurality winners, but you can't really say they have the support of voters.

It's fair to say that no plausible amount of representative distortion could get Trump elected with only 36% of the vote. It could only happen with a big third-part vote. What's Ralph Nader up to nowadays ..?

In theory you can be elected president of the US with 22% of the vote.

In theory, but not plausibly. He'd have to win over-represented states (which roughly speaking are the low-population states) which aren't much alike (Wyoming and Vermont?) while losing under-represented states which aren't much alike (California and Florida, or Texas and New York). And/or get wildly different turnouts in different states. And/or have a significant third party challenger like Ross Perot (ain't no dodo like the bozo I know, it's Ross Perot ... seriously the guy worked some kind of miracle, nothing like him as a true independent with no previous political experience rather than a splitter from a major party ... ugly little runt with an annoying twang too).

It's an arbitrary number you have there. In theory a candidate could be elected with 0.00001% of the vote. That's one voter, from a turnout of one voter, in each of the heaviest states (California, Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia and Michigan for a total of NINE votes), but for no good reason there is normal turnout in every other state and they're all votes for someone else. That's 9 votes beats 130 million, woot!

"In theory" doesn't mean much.

And my point was more that he won the position when by most metrics he lost the election.

"Most metrics" is bullshit even worse than "in theory".

He won by one of the metrics: most Electors as per rules in the Constitution, and rules chosen by each State.
He lost by another metric: first past the post in the national popular vote.

Even disregarding that one of those metrics is official and the other is not, 1 out of 2 is not "most".

Sorry, I just can't help it. You're a nice enough person, and politically you and I are on broadly the same side. But I cannot tolerate anyone posting in reply to me with stuff that is wrong. I cannot help it, I hate bullshit, I have to blow it up. And if you like having your shit blown up, that's great.

[AiliailiA]

There's a while to go. I know it seems like it's been ages, but actually half a year which is only an eighth of one term.

You and I think he's fucked up enough just in that short time, that he can't possibly turn it around, but the voters generally are not all convinced.
That 36%? Yes it's pretty bad, it's 'unelectedable' as it stands. But it's really remarkable how long it has held around there. Voters haven't given up on Trump yet.

But that's not the direction his ratings are going.

They're going up.

Which is insane. Numbers lie, right

His masterful 40th dimensional backgammon tweets are still causing people to be put off to him through how unprofessional and stupid he sounds, and it doesn't seen like the American public are fully ready to stomach this kind of behavior quite yet. Not to mention all the scandals which, in fact, are still being brought up again. And Hell, on a slow day, you might even see people talk about the "boring" details of healthcare.

He could recover, yes, but it would primarily require to keep his big fucking mouth shut for a few months at worst. The only people he's going to keep at this rate are the most rabid of Trump supporters, and they can't carry elections single-handedly.

He could recover because "it's the economy stupid". His deregulations might actually have some effect, more an "animal spirits" effect of making investors think it's a good time to start new businesses or expand than an actual economic effect of lowering costs for businesses. Or they might have no effect of either kind, and the economy does well because it was going to do well whatever President or Congress does.

The dumb bastard might just get lucky (like Reagan with the oil price slump, back in a day when the US imported a bigger percentage of its oil and was more vulnerable to high oil price). Even if none of it is his doing, he'll still get the credit if the economy does well, because he talked that game.

Or there might be a serious recession. Whether or not it's in any way his fault, that would wreck him. "It's the economy stupid" and have the American voters ever been more stupid than now?

The other option is a massive domestic issue like a massive terrorist attack that Trump handles well.

Or a war he starts. You would hope the voters still remember Bush's unnecessary adventure in Iraq, and are still war-weary after the longest war in Afghanistan. But it's been 8 years of relative de-escalation under Obama, maybe that's enough "peace" and it's time for war again.

Sorry I have to mention it. I'm sorry I have such a low opinion of the American voters. But it is seriously possible Trump could start a hardass war, one where the US really could lose a lot, and that still be an adrenalin-rushing patriotic emergency when it comes time for his re-election that the people feel they have to stand behind their Commander-in-Chief and let him finish the job.

Ugh. It's the best argument for downsizing the military isn't it? Take that option away from Presidents.

Most people saying he'll get reelected now and Democrats are fucked already (with a mid-30s approval rating) are either blinded by cynicism or partisanship. He could improve, but saying he's guaranteed election is fucking laughable.

Def not guaranteed. I'm still taking even money on him being impeached before he gets the chance.

[Frank Zipper]

Sorry I have to mention it. I'm sorry I have such a low opinion of the American voters. But it is seriously possible Trump could start a hardass war, one where the US really could lose a lot, and that still be an adrenalin-rushing patriotic emergency when it comes time for his re-election that the people feel they have to stand behind their Commander-in-Chief and let him finish the job.

He seems to be talking up getting aggressive with North Korea quite a lot.

[AiliailiA]

Sorry I have to mention it. I'm sorry I have such a low opinion of the American voters. But it is seriously possible Trump could start a hardass war, one where the US really could lose a lot, and that still be an adrenalin-rushing patriotic emergency when it comes time for his re-election that the people feel they have to stand behind their Commander-in-Chief and let him finish the job.

He seems to be talking up getting aggressive with North Korea quite a lot.

Beat them up while they still only have the missiles to reach Hawaii ... Obama's home state.

Don't wait four years until they can nuke New York or Florida.

(I'm in a bad mood now, aren't I?)

[Sane Outcasts]

I'm fascinated right now with the commision Trump created to investigate the "voter fraud" in the election he won. As has already been posted, the commission asked every state for a ton of sensitive information about voters, including names, addresses, voting histories, last 4 digits of their Social Securty number, etc., and the over half the states have responded with many variations of of refusal. Memorably, the Mississippi Secretary of State advised the commission to go jump in the Gulf of Mexico.

That leads us to one of this morning'sTweets:

Numerous states are refusing to give information to the very distinguished VOTER FRAUD PANEL. What are they trying to hide?

Trump has already shown himself to be dogged in the pursuit of being right and he seems to care a lot about not winning the popular vote. Are we looking at the beginning of Trump, wielding the power of the federal government, fighting state governments over his voter fraud allegations?

I personally think he'll pursue this to the end of his term unless someone else in the government steps up to shut him down and nothing will hurt his remaining support amongst conservative than trying to exert federal authority over state's judgments.

[Valrifell]

Sorry I have to mention it. I'm sorry I have such a low opinion of the American voters. But it is seriously possible Trump could start a hardass war, one where the US really could lose a lot, and that still be an adrenalin-rushing patriotic emergency when it comes time for his re-election that the people feel they have to stand behind their Commander-in-Chief and let him finish the job.

He seems to be talking up getting aggressive with North Korea quite a lot.

Ugh. As much as I hate the Kims, North Korea has every indication it's going to be another quagmire with possibly high casualties. Luckily, even with lukewarm Chinese support, any military invasion of North Korea is unlikely.

[Vassenor]

I'm fascinated right now with the commision Trump created to investigate the "voter fraud" in the election he won. As has already been posted, the commission asked every state for a ton of sensitive information about voters, including names, addresses, voting histories, last 4 digits of their Social Securty number, etc., and the over half the states have responded with many variations of of refusal. Memorably, the Mississippi Secretary of State advised the commission to go jump in the Gulf of Mexico.

That leads us to one of this morning'sTweets:

Numerous states are refusing to give information to the very distinguished VOTER FRAUD PANEL. What are they trying to hide?

Trump has already shown himself to be dogged in the pursuit of being right and he seems to care a lot about not winning the popular vote. Are we looking at the beginning of Trump, wielding the power of the federal government, fighting state governments over his voter fraud allegations?

I personally think he'll pursue this to the end of his term unless someone else in the government steps up to shut him down and nothing will hurt his remaining support amongst conservative than trying to exert federal authority over state's judgments.

He's convinced the only reason Hillary got more votes than him is because of fraud. It's part of not wanting to accept that he's not as universally beloved as he thinks he is. See also that crap about faking the inauguration photos.

[Valrifell]

But that's not the direction his ratings are going.

They're going up.

Which is insane. Numbers lie, right

I expect his numbers to hover in the mid-to-upper 30s for the next few months (barring something either extremely good for him or extremely poor) with the low 40s being the highest him going for now. Which is about average for a President late into their term, iirc. But, I do expect the mean to fall about 36-39% for now, if only because numbers above 40% mildly frighten me.

His masterful 40th dimensional backgammon tweets are still causing people to be put off to him through how unprofessional and stupid he sounds, and it doesn't seen like the American public are fully ready to stomach this kind of behavior quite yet. Not to mention all the scandals which, in fact, are still being brought up again. And Hell, on a slow day, you might even see people talk about the "boring" details of healthcare.

He could recover, yes, but it would primarily require to keep his big fucking mouth shut for a few months at worst. The only people he's going to keep at this rate are the most rabid of Trump supporters, and they can't carry elections single-handedly.

He could recover because "it's the economy stupid". His deregulations might actually have some effect, more an "animal spirits" effect of making investors think it's a good time to start new businesses or expand than an actual economic effect of lowering costs for businesses. Or they might have no effect of either kind, and the economy does well because it was going to do well whatever President or Congress does.

The dumb bastard might just get lucky (like Reagan with the oil price slump, back in a day when the US imported a bigger percentage of its oil and was more vulnerable to high oil price). Even if none of it is his doing, he'll still get the credit if the economy does well, because he talked that game.

Or there might be a serious recession. Whether or not it's in any way his fault, that would wreck him. "It's the economy stupid" and have the American voters ever been more stupid than now?

I fully expect deregulation to go the route it tends to, small term boom in the economy (where his approval ratings reflect that) gloating from Libertarians about how much glory their economic system brought us, and then a recession, where the Left will gloat about how right they were and how evil corporations are (rinse and repeat). The time scale matters a lot for the prospect of a Trump re-election, but we've not gone longer than a decade without some kind of economic mishap for a while now, and 2018 is right around the corner.

Regardless of how the economy is doing, there will always be the factory workers who threw Trump in the White House in the first place. Everything all together may look peachy, and that would win him more approval, but if manufacturing continues to slide towards automation, he could still find himself without a winning coalition of voters. Especially when you factor in that people just don't like the way that he acts, so the economy wouldn't gain him as much as it would for literally any other president, I suspect.

The other option is a massive domestic issue like a massive terrorist attack that Trump handles well.

Or a war he starts. You would hope the voters still remember Bush's unnecessary adventure in Iraq, and are still war-weary after the longest war in Afghanistan. But it's been 8 years of relative de-escalation under Obama, maybe that's enough "peace" and it's time for war again.

Sorry I have to mention it. I'm sorry I have such a low opinion of the American voters. But it is seriously possible Trump could start a hardass war, one where the US really could lose a lot, and that still be an adrenalin-rushing patriotic emergency when it comes time for his re-election that the people feel they have to stand behind their Commander-in-Chief and let him finish the job.

Ugh. It's the best argument for downsizing the military isn't it? Take that option away from Presidents.

A war that Trump "didn't start" is probably the best bet he has for re-election, since I don't fully believe a booming economy is necessarily enough to save him from people who want what he can't provide and those who don't like his lack of professionalism. This wouldn't even be the first time that trick has been used, starting a war to win favor with the American public. The key is to frame it like an accident/we were attacked first.

It seems like an easy thing to fuck up, though, and could easily backfire on him.

Most people saying he'll get reelected now and Democrats are fucked already (with a mid-30s approval rating) are either blinded by cynicism or partisanship. He could improve, but saying he's guaranteed election is fucking laughable.

Def not guaranteed. I'm still taking even money on him being impeached before he gets the chance.

I think an actual impeachment attempt is practically inevitable, whether or not it's successful is another thing entirely as is if it will be the first conviction and forceful removal of a President.

[AiliailiA]

I'm fascinated right now with the commision Trump created to investigate the "voter fraud" in the election he won. As has already been posted, the commission asked every state for a ton of sensitive information about voters, including names, addresses, voting histories, last 4 digits of their Social Securty number, etc., and the over half the states have responded with many variations of of refusal. Memorably, the Mississippi Secretary of State advised the commission to go jump in the Gulf of Mexico.

That leads us to one of this morning'sTweets:

Yay goody goody, more Tweets! I swear, until Donald Trump, there was nobody on Earth I considered following on Twitter!

Not that I do actually. I wouldn't give him the follower, and it's easy to find. I type "twi" into the URL bar and it's the second option on the list. Firefox helpfully trying to interest me in the home domain, but no, I will not Tweet, and there's only one Tweeter I care about. It's ding-dong donnie, the first and only celebrity airhead with @realNuclearCodes !

And heeee're Donnie!

Numerous states are refusing to give information to the very distinguished VOTER FRAUD PANEL. What are they trying to hide?

It's dumb, but it's kind of smart too. A few Republican states will hand over records, his "distinguished" panel will OK them, and right up until the next election he'll lambast the Democratic (but not the Republican) states who didn't hand over, as "having something to hide".

He'll never prove there were three million fake votes for Hillary, but he will create enough doubt about it that he can keep peddling that shit without being totally debunked.

Hmm. Why not turn it all over? Let's face it, Trump could get it all anyway, if he really wanted it. He could just ask the NSA.

Trump has already shown himself to be dogged in the pursuit of being right and he seems to care a lot about not winning the popular vote.

Sad! But in a way, it could be good. By going to lengths to "prove" he won it, he's saying the national popular vote matters. Which it should but doesn't.

Are we looking at the beginning of Trump, wielding the power of the federal government, fighting state governments over his voter fraud allegations?

Again, could be good. States having such discretion (and ability to cover up) in federal elections is a bad problem, only recently highlighted by the appalling security model of 50 different voter registries and vote counting systems, further delegated to county governments with budgets like a scooter repair shop and IT staff who got the job because their sister was elected County Clerk.

No, that's not a reference to any particular state, county or clerk. I made it up, but it's alarmingly plausible isn't it?

I personally think he'll pursue this to the end of his term unless someone else in the government steps up to shut him down and nothing will hurt his remaining support amongst conservative than trying to exert federal authority over state's judgments.

Yeah. Congress should step in: not to shut it down, but to do it properly. There may be no voter fraud at all, hopefully there's not, but Trump and his lunatic conspiracy supporters have cast doubt the legitimacy of the process from top to bottom, Russia stirring the possum didn't help either. Whether or not there's a problem, there should be a proper investigation if only to restore public faith in what is undeniably a creaky, cobbled-together, trust-based and genuinely vulnerable electoral system. And probably, find some serious holes in it which HAVE already been exploited.

It would be really dumb for Democrats to get stuck with being the hand-waving "nothing to see here" denialists of a problem which it turns out actually exists. If there is voter fraud and it is found out and proven, it won't matter which party the fraud favored. What will matter is which party tried to investigate, and which party tried to block investigations.

Don't be wrong about this, Democrats. It could be a huge fucking deal.

[Corrian]

Considering the attacks on Heller, can we really get rid of the narrative that Republicans are united right now? They seem to be on some cases, but they really aren't as a whole.

[Valrifell]

Considering the attacks on Heller, can we really get rid of the narrative that Republicans are united right now? They seem to be on some cases, but they really aren't as a whole.

I thought the "United Republican" narrative was proven false by the whole Healthcare dilemma they're facing. A few people predicted that a Trump win would reveal and worsen the cracks in the Republican Party, and they seem to be mostly right. I imagine that without the donors threatening Congressional Republicans (as someone posted earlier), there'd be a full-blown mutiny right about now.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... spartanntp

I will drop this here. Because the whole article is relevant.

[Seangoli]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-go-in-for-the-kill-on-obamacare-repeal/ar-BBDvPVb?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

I will drop this here. Because the whole article is relevant.

Turns out that when you already have what is effectively the Republican Plan (As the ACA is), you end up facing a wall of opposition as every option to scale back is shittier and shittier.

[Zanera]

Sorry I have to mention it. I'm sorry I have such a low opinion of the American voters. But it is seriously possible Trump could start a hardass war, one where the US really could lose a lot, and that still be an adrenalin-rushing patriotic emergency when it comes time for his re-election that the people feel they have to stand behind their Commander-in-Chief and let him finish the job.

Ugh. It's the best argument for downsizing the military isn't it? Take that option away from Presidents.

We have interests and oil to protect, and power to project, for us to downsize 'Murica's Mars Machine.
Also saying 'Murica can lose a war is unpatriotic and commie.

He should make Mattis de facto C-i-C doe. Dat would be for all the best.

I'm fascinated right now with the commision Trump created to investigate the "voter fraud" in the election he won. As has already been posted, the commission asked every state for a ton of sensitive information about voters, including names, addresses, voting histories, last 4 digits of their Social Securty number, etc., and the over half the states have responded with many variations of of refusal. Memorably, the Mississippi Secretary of State advised the commission to go jump in the Gulf of Mexico.

That leads us to one of this morning'sTweets:

Numerous states are refusing to give information to the very distinguished VOTER FRAUD PANEL. What are they trying to hide?

Trump has already shown himself to be dogged in the pursuit of being right and he seems to care a lot about not winning the popular vote. Are we looking at the beginning of Trump, wielding the power of the federal government, fighting state governments over his voter fraud allegations?

I personally think he'll pursue this to the end of his term unless someone else in the government steps up to shut him down and nothing will hurt his remaining support amongst conservative than trying to exert federal authority over state's judgments.

They're hiding people's privacy. Probably something he might not care about (except his own privacy) anymore.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Are we still banging the coal drum as if it's not hopelessly obsolete and epically polluting compared to alternatives?

[Washington Resistance Army]

Are we still banging the coal drum as if it's not hopelessly obsolete and epically polluting compared to alternatives?

But it isn't obsolete. We're gonna bring jobs back and it's gonna be great.

Or something.

[Frank Zipper]

So was black lung covered by Obamacare?

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

So was black lung covered by Obamacare?

The question is "Will it be covered under DestroyCare or is it one of those 'pre-conditions'?"

[Northern Davincia]

So was black lung covered by Obamacare?

The question is "Will it be covered under DestroyCare or is it one of those 'pre-conditions'?"

I fondly remember the days back when people came up with clever nicknames to slander laws with.

[Vassenor]

The question is "Will it be covered under DestroyCare or is it one of those 'pre-conditions'?"

I fondly remember the days back when people came up with clever nicknames to slander laws with.

It is apt though. Stripping twenty million Americans of their healthcare just to fund a tax break for the richest.