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'Venezuela could be the next Syria or South Sudan'

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

Is a civil war in Venuzeula likely?

Yes
59
51%
No
26
22%
I don't know much about Venezuelan politics.
31
27%
 
Total votes : 116

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Volkmacht
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Founded: Apr 18, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

'Venezuela could be the next Syria or South Sudan'

Postby Volkmacht » Thu May 18, 2017 3:10 am

"At least 43 people have died during weeks of clashes between government forces and opposition demonstrators angry at President Nicolas Maduro's handling of an economic and political crisis.

"This isn't getting better, it's getting worse, and what we are trying to say is the international community needs to say 'respect the human rights of your people' or this is going to go in the direction we've seen so many others go," US Ambassador Nikki Haley told reporters following Security Council talks.

The United States requested the closed-door consultations on Venezuela despite objections from some council members who insisted the crisis was not a threat to international security.

Haley said the US decision to raise Venezuela at the Security Council was aimed at conflict prevention and to ensure that the top UN body was paying attention to the crisis".


http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017 ... ther-syria

As if we haven't got enough to worry about, now a civil war could break out in South America, not far from the United States. If one does break out in a country with as much oil as Venezuela does, it could not only severely damage the global economy and bring the continent to it's knees, but it could create another refugee situation not far from the United States.

What do you think, NSG? Is a civil war in Venezuela likely?
Last edited by Volkmacht on Thu May 18, 2017 3:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Esternial
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Founded: May 09, 2009
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Postby Esternial » Thu May 18, 2017 3:15 am

Kinda highlights how maybe we shouldn't be as dependent on unstable countries for oil/energy.

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Donut section
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Corporate Bordello

Postby Donut section » Thu May 18, 2017 3:19 am

Socialism not even once.
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Commonwealth of Hank the Cat
Minister
 
Posts: 2017
Founded: Aug 01, 2014
Father Knows Best State

Postby Commonwealth of Hank the Cat » Thu May 18, 2017 3:25 am

Hell, even the riot police are starting to get agitated at the government. I read that they have to work around the clock every day, and I suppose they don't get any leeway into buying food.

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Arcanda
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Founded: Sep 24, 2014
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Arcanda » Thu May 18, 2017 3:26 am

To be fair, it seems headed that way, unless there's a regime change. Perhaps the US should sanction Maduro's regime in hopes to tame it. The west needs to get involved anyway, and not let permanent unrest take place like in Syria.

As for the refugees, it's a fact that immigration in general has rattled a lot of people. That's evident by the victory of Trump who almost campaigned only on that issue. There shouldn't be any accepted to the US.

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Risottia
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Risottia » Thu May 18, 2017 4:09 am

Volkmacht wrote:As if we haven't got enough to worry about, now a civil war could break out in South America, not far from the United States. If one does break out in a country with as much oil as Venezuela does

Venezuela isn't exporting much of its oil, that's exactly why their economy has gone into complete shit. And it isn't exporting its oil because 'Murica has stopped buying it from Venezuela as a way of putting "pressure" on the Venezuelan government (basically as a way to foster a regime change either via a civil war or a military coup, as usual).
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Ethel mermania
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Postby Ethel mermania » Thu May 18, 2017 4:17 am

Esternial wrote:Kinda highlights how maybe we shouldn't be as dependent on unstable countries for oil/energy.


Pfft, why change now?
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Ethel mermania
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Postby Ethel mermania » Thu May 18, 2017 4:24 am

Risottia wrote:
Volkmacht wrote:As if we haven't got enough to worry about, now a civil war could break out in South America, not far from the United States. If one does break out in a country with as much oil as Venezuela does

Venezuela isn't exporting much of its oil, that's exactly why their economy has gone into complete shit. And it isn't exporting its oil because 'Murica has stopped buying it from Venezuela as a way of putting "pressure" on the Venezuelan government (basically as a way to foster a regime change either via a civil war or a military coup, as usual).


You sure about that, there are plenty of citgo stations around here.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citgo
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The of Japan
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby The of Japan » Thu May 18, 2017 4:35 am

Risottia wrote:
Volkmacht wrote:As if we haven't got enough to worry about, now a civil war could break out in South America, not far from the United States. If one does break out in a country with as much oil as Venezuela does

Venezuela isn't exporting much of its oil, that's exactly why their economy has gone into complete shit. And it isn't exporting its oil because 'Murica has stopped buying it from Venezuela as a way of putting "pressure" on the Venezuelan government (basically as a way to foster a regime change either via a civil war or a military coup, as usual).

Oh, so you believe Maduro's propaganda, the stuff that his own people don't even believe? The Venezuelan system was unsustainable, and the oil shock made it happen quicker.
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Randsbeik
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Ex-Nation

Postby Randsbeik » Thu May 18, 2017 4:38 am

I wouldn't be surprised. I imagine it'd be similar to the Romanian revolution.

Let Socialism die and Maduro with it.
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Stalgard
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Founded: Apr 09, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby Stalgard » Thu May 18, 2017 4:39 am

Donut section wrote:Socialism not even once.

but its not true socialism, clearly venezuela is state capitalism with fascistic government :^)

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Randsbeik
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Ex-Nation

Postby Randsbeik » Thu May 18, 2017 4:42 am

Stalgard wrote:
Donut section wrote:Socialism not even once.

but its not true socialism, clearly venezuela is state capitalism with fascistic government :^)

...so you try again and your shitty system fails but that's ok because it wasn't real socialism so you try again and...
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Nakena
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Founded: May 06, 2017
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Postby Nakena » Thu May 18, 2017 4:46 am

Volkmacht wrote:
"At least 43 people have died during weeks of clashes between government forces and opposition demonstrators angry at President Nicolas Maduro's handling of an economic and political crisis.

"This isn't getting better, it's getting worse, and what we are trying to say is the international community needs to say 'respect the human rights of your people' or this is going to go in the direction we've seen so many others go," US Ambassador Nikki Haley told reporters following Security Council talks.

The United States requested the closed-door consultations on Venezuela despite objections from some council members who insisted the crisis was not a threat to international security.

Haley said the US decision to raise Venezuela at the Security Council was aimed at conflict prevention and to ensure that the top UN body was paying attention to the crisis".


http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017 ... ther-syria

As if we haven't got enough to worry about, now a civil war could break out in South America, not far from the United States. If one does break out in a country with as much oil as Venezuela does, it could not only severely damage the global economy and bring the continent to it's knees, but it could create another refugee situation not far from the United States.

What do you think, NSG? Is a civil war in Venezuela likely?


No. Theres not that ethnic and religious divide. People are just starving and being hungry. Its an economical and political crisis. Its a severe case of "Dutch disease". Chavez and Maduro relied on their hard currency incomes by oil revenus while the rest of the countries economy was going down even more. Their pinko-communist politics didn help, but it the problem of over reliance on the Oil sector was existent before.

Risottia wrote:
Volkmacht wrote:As if we haven't got enough to worry about, now a civil war could break out in South America, not far from the United States. If one does break out in a country with as much oil as Venezuela does

Venezuela isn't exporting much of its oil, that's exactly why their economy has gone into complete shit. And it isn't exporting its oil because 'Murica has stopped buying it from Venezuela as a way of putting "pressure" on the Venezuelan government (basically as a way to foster a regime change either via a civil war or a military coup, as usual).


Oil Prices. Yo. Even freaking Saudi-Arabia has problems. Do you have any sources on this, that most of Venezuelas Oil is going to end up in domestic consumption? It's not like the US are necessarily dependent on venezuelan oil, nor are they the only oil importing country. In fact they have become a lot more energy independent due the widespread introduction of fracking.

Also the US have long given up their interests in South America. Do you have any sources to back up your claims?
Last edited by Nakena on Thu May 18, 2017 4:50 am, edited 3 times in total.

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Napkiraly
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Postby Napkiraly » Thu May 18, 2017 4:56 am

Risottia wrote:
Volkmacht wrote:As if we haven't got enough to worry about, now a civil war could break out in South America, not far from the United States. If one does break out in a country with as much oil as Venezuela does

Venezuela isn't exporting much of its oil, that's exactly why their economy has gone into complete shit. And it isn't exporting its oil because 'Murica has stopped buying it from Venezuela as a way of putting "pressure" on the Venezuelan government (basically as a way to foster a regime change either via a civil war or a military coup, as usual).

America isn't buying much oil from anyone because of the natural gas boom. The oil industry globally has taken a hit, such as in Alberta. Venezuela became overly dependent on oil exports to keep it afloat for almost the past 10 years and when the price dropped it meant that Venezuela could no longer even afford to export its own fuel. Mixed in with Venezuela's oil be of low quality and well, recipe for disaster. There is no ban on Venezuelan oil. The most the USA has done is slap some sanctions on some of Maduro's ministers and family members.
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Crockerland
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Postby Crockerland » Thu May 18, 2017 5:27 am

The next Syria or South Sudan? So it will fall into failed state status because of Obama? That seems unlikely since he's not in charge any more.
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Risottia
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Postby Risottia » Thu May 18, 2017 5:59 am

Nakena wrote:Oil Prices. Yo. Even freaking Saudi-Arabia has problems.

Saudi Arabia is buddies with US. Venezuela isn't.

Also:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... MUSVE1&f=M
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venez ... 1X20121008

What Chavez started (a form of left-wing populism based of a large welfare state) was more or less viable as long as Venezuela exported lots of oil. Nowadays, it is unsustainable.
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The Greater Europa League
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Founded: May 14, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby The Greater Europa League » Thu May 18, 2017 7:57 am

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Democratic States Of Israel
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Ex-Nation

Postby Democratic States Of Israel » Thu May 18, 2017 8:39 am

I guess maybe it will be a Latino version of the Romanian revolution.
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San Marlindo
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Postby San Marlindo » Thu May 18, 2017 8:41 am

It's doubtful a protracted civil war will break out, but it's possible there will be a popular revolution resulting in a regime change.
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Stalgard
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Ex-Nation

Postby Stalgard » Thu May 18, 2017 8:44 am

Crockerland wrote:The next Syria or South Sudan? So it will fall into failed state status because of Obama? That seems unlikely since he's not in charge any more.

actually syria is about destabilizing region to protect israel
they even admited it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmukL16Kkwg for example.
oh and also preventing russia from having hot water port on the other side of bosphor strait
also there was that pipeline project worth miliards funded by rotschilds, i forgot how it was called
as of south sudan i dont have idea but probably reasons unrelated to obongo, i cant see a reason for usa to start wars there but i will invastigate
so, really, obama doesnt have much to do with that, any potus would do that

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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Thu May 18, 2017 9:04 am

Ethel mermania wrote:
Risottia wrote:Venezuela isn't exporting much of its oil, that's exactly why their economy has gone into complete shit. And it isn't exporting its oil because 'Murica has stopped buying it from Venezuela as a way of putting "pressure" on the Venezuelan government (basically as a way to foster a regime change either via a civil war or a military coup, as usual).


You sure about that, there are plenty of citgo stations around here.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citgo

I forgot they existed. Shell, Kroger, and Quik Trip are the big ones around here
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Ruskov
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Postby Ruskov » Thu May 18, 2017 9:10 am

I don't think so. If it was, it would've likely exploded into war already.

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Lonograd
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Postby Lonograd » Thu May 18, 2017 9:10 am

Like Syria? So America is going to train, arm and fund Islamic fundamentalists to overthrow the government because it isn't a puppet of the U.S.? Seems likely.
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The Serbian Empire
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Postby The Serbian Empire » Thu May 18, 2017 9:47 am

Commonwealth of Hank the Cat wrote:Hell, even the riot police are starting to get agitated at the government. I read that they have to work around the clock every day, and I suppose they don't get any leeway into buying food.

The signs of a classic South American junta are brewing.
Last edited by The Serbian Empire on Thu May 18, 2017 9:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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