[UK] General Election 2017 Superthread

[Irona]

for some reason nobody likes Corbyn.

Ever checked his proposals? It's top-tier madness.

Corbyns policy's are very popular with the public. They've always been, his weakness comes from the publics perception of him as an extremist.

[Frank Zipper]

I am wondering if lying to pollsters has become the norm.

[Irona]

The Mail on Sunday's poll is the only one done after May's tax and pensions stance. 11 point drop is ridiculous in two days.

[Salandriagado]

Labour pledge to introduce four extra bank holidays a year 'to give workers the break they deserve'.

I've no idea what on Earth led them to come up with this one. Bank holidays are great unless you work in retail, or hospitality, or the 'gig economy', or if you're self-employed. These days wouldn't just be work days for most of the low-paid, but they'd be among the most hectic days of the year for them. I am genuinely astonished that Labour's policy-makers thought this was a good idea. They must have absolutely no idea of how the modern economy works for the people whom they're supposed to represent. I mean, there must be some kind of disconnect there.

Also, they want to put the bloody holidays in March and April, when people will appreciate them the least. They can't even get that bit right. Labour are totally screwed.

Is March-May not already congested enough with bank holidays? Theres already Good Friday, Easter, May day, and Whitsun. That's 5 of 8 in that 3 month period already. Can the rest of the year not get some love?

[Neu Leonstein]

Been away for a few days, but still paid attention... anyway, after some deliberation I've decided that I reckon this election is a good thing.

The logic goes that May was a Remainer, who is quite aware of the reasons a Hard Brexit is a bad thing. She's convinced herself that the referendum means staying in the Single Market is not feasible, but she's not oblivious to the issues like some other people. However, the tighter her lead in Parliament, the more reliant she is on pulling every Tory MP along with her on things - and that's what allows the Dirty Brexit crowd to dominate proceedings. If she can win a bigger majority and her own mandate, that risk is reduced. Or in the words of an anonymous Tory minister: “When the hardliners come along and say you can’t do this or you can’t do that she can just say, ‘F*** off, I’ve got the mandate’ and there’s nothing they can do.”

So, given that Labour has declared itself irrelevant, and the Lib Dems will do well but not well enough to turn the Brexit boat around, the choice is between a weak Tory government and a strong Tory government in which the worst of the lot can be marginalised more easily.

Not telling anyone to vote Conservative, of course (if I could, I'd still vote for the Lib Dems), but that's the way I'm thinking about all this.

[Irona]

Been away for a few days, but still paid attention... anyway, after some deliberation I've decided that I reckon this election is a good thing.

The logic goes that May was a Remainer, who is quite aware of the reasons a Hard Brexit is a bad thing. She's convinced herself that the referendum means staying in the Single Market is not feasible, but she's not oblivious to the issues like some other people. However, the tighter her lead in Parliament, the more reliant she is on pulling every Tory MP along with her on things - and that's what allows the Dirty Brexit crowd to dominate proceedings. If she can win a bigger majority and her own mandate, that risk is reduced. Or in the words of an anonymous Tory minister: “When the hardliners come along and say you can’t do this or you can’t do that she can just say, ‘F*** off, I’ve got the mandate’ and there’s nothing they can do.”

So, given that Labour has declared itself irrelevant, and the Lib Dems will do well but not well enough to turn the Brexit boat around, the choice is between a weak Tory government and a strong Tory government in which the worst of the lot can be marginalised more easily.

Not telling anyone to vote Conservative, of course (if I could, I'd still vote for the Lib Dems), but that's the way I'm thinking about all this.

This is exactly why Teresa May is popular. She doesn't specify anything clearly and everyone fills in the gaps with what they want.

We really have no idea what Teresa May stands for on Brexit, we actually know more about Labours position than the Conservatives. Your falling into the Teresa May Brexit trap - Hard Brexiters think Teresa May stands by them, Soft Brexiters think Teresa May stands by them and everyone in between thinks Teresa May stands by a position close to theirs. In reality nobody has any idea where she stands on Brexit.

[HMS Queen Elizabeth]

Been away for a few days, but still paid attention... anyway, after some deliberation I've decided that I reckon this election is a good thing.

The logic goes that May was a Remainer, who is quite aware of the reasons a Hard Brexit is a bad thing. She's convinced herself that the referendum means staying in the Single Market is not feasible, but she's not oblivious to the issues like some other people. However, the tighter her lead in Parliament, the more reliant she is on pulling every Tory MP along with her on things - and that's what allows the Dirty Brexit crowd to dominate proceedings. If she can win a bigger majority and her own mandate, that risk is reduced. Or in the words of an anonymous Tory minister: “When the hardliners come along and say you can’t do this or you can’t do that she can just say, ‘F*** off, I’ve got the mandate’ and there’s nothing they can do.”

So, given that Labour has declared itself irrelevant, and the Lib Dems will do well but not well enough to turn the Brexit boat around, the choice is between a weak Tory government and a strong Tory government in which the worst of the lot can be marginalised more easily.

Not telling anyone to vote Conservative, of course (if I could, I'd still vote for the Lib Dems), but that's the way I'm thinking about all this.

This had occurred to me too. The problem is no one really knows what May is thinking. She was Home Secretary so she really had no choice but to support Remain if she wanted to keep her job - doesn't necessarily mean her heart was in it. A lot of things she has said do also indicate a genuinely nationalist, but not necessarily free market, outlook ("If you are a citizen of the world you are a citizen of nowhere."). But we don't have a lot of position statements to work with from her from before she became rose to prominence.

[The Wolfiad]

Ever checked his proposals? It's top-tier madness.

Corbyns policy's are very popular with the public. They've always been, his weakness comes from the publics perception of him as an extremist.

It also isn't a drop. The last Survation poll had the Tories at 38%. It's an increase. Polls are only really compatible with polls from the same polling company as they all use different methodology. In the case of Survation, they are infamous for overestimating Labour.

[Rhodesia]

ComRes/Sunday Mirror poll has Tories on 50%. Highest support for any party since 2002 and highest support for Tories since 1991. If May and the Conservatives did take 50% of the vote, it would be the first time since 1935 that a party took an absolute majority of the vote.

That said, this is – so far – an outlier. Two other polls to be released tomorrow are said to have Tories on 48%.

The more interesting poll is the one to be released for the Sunday Times Scotland which has SNP on 43% and Tories on 32%. Analysis shows the Tories could win up to 12 seats (including Labour's only Scottish seat) on those numbers. Lib Dems could win up to 4 and make something of a come back in Scotland.

This morning the Mail on Sunday's front page story is: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -turn.html

Their poll has Teresa May's support halved since she called the election, apparently because of her stance on tax and pensions. The Tories have fallen 11 points in four days. They still have a ten point lead but bloody hell. Somebody needs to get fired in May's campaign.

Interesting the poll comes from a right-wing paper as well and on the same day that the express claims her lead has increased.

Interesting that left-wing paper, The Sunday Mirror, has May and the Tories on 50% yet a right-wing paper, The Mail on Sunday, has the Tories with the narrowest lead over Labour for some months. As mentioned, both the Survation and Comres polls are – for now – outliers, though it's worth pointing out that the Survation polling took place in the midst of that refusal to rule out tax rises. The other polls two released overnight putting the Tories on mid-40s seem about right to me. It's also perhaps worth noting of the declared UKIP voters polled, 48% of them are intending to vote Conservative this time round.

On a slightly different note, I think turnout will be down. Voter fatigue but also a "foregone conclusion" will make many stay at home.

[Rhodesia]

Ever checked his proposals? It's top-tier madness.

Corbyns policy's are very popular with the public. They've always been, his weakness comes from the publics perception of him as an extremist.

How are the public meant to perceive him when he has on multiple occasions refused to condemn the IRA, Hamas and Hezbollah? It speaks volumes when just today, Corbyn has had to state, "I am not a defender or supporter of ISIS." So he hates the rich, he hates big business and he hates anybody who votes Tory but he's on the fence when it comes to terrorists? There's only one way for the public to perceive that, really.

[Dumb Ideologies]

Been away for a few days, but still paid attention... anyway, after some deliberation I've decided that I reckon this election is a good thing.

The logic goes that May was a Remainer, who is quite aware of the reasons a Hard Brexit is a bad thing. She's convinced herself that the referendum means staying in the Single Market is not feasible, but she's not oblivious to the issues like some other people. However, the tighter her lead in Parliament, the more reliant she is on pulling every Tory MP along with her on things - and that's what allows the Dirty Brexit crowd to dominate proceedings. If she can win a bigger majority and her own mandate, that risk is reduced. Or in the words of an anonymous Tory minister: “When the hardliners come along and say you can’t do this or you can’t do that she can just say, ‘F*** off, I’ve got the mandate’ and there’s nothing they can do.”

So, given that Labour has declared itself irrelevant, and the Lib Dems will do well but not well enough to turn the Brexit boat around, the choice is between a weak Tory government and a strong Tory government in which the worst of the lot can be marginalised more easily.

Not telling anyone to vote Conservative, of course (if I could, I'd still vote for the Lib Dems), but that's the way I'm thinking about all this.

Could go either way. I was thinking along the lines of her having more authority to drag everyone along to her stated position of a relatively hard Brexit the larger a mandate she gets. I'm sticking with the funeral procession that is the Labour campaign for now, for reasons other than Brexit.

[Imperializt Russia]

ComRes/Sunday Mirror poll has Tories on 50%. Highest support for any party since 2002 and highest support for Tories since 1991. If May and the Conservatives did take 50% of the vote, it would be the first time since 1935 that a party took an absolute majority of the vote.

That said, this is – so far – an outlier. Two other polls to be released tomorrow are said to have Tories on 48%.

The more interesting poll is the one to be released for the Sunday Times Scotland which has SNP on 43% and Tories on 32%. Analysis shows the Tories could win up to 12 seats (including Labour's only Scottish seat) on those numbers. Lib Dems could win up to 4 and make something of a come back in Scotland.

This morning the Mail on Sunday's front page story is: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -turn.html

Their poll has Teresa May's support halved since she called the election, apparently because of her stance on tax and pensions. The Tories have fallen 11 points in four days. They still have a ten point lead but bloody hell. Somebody needs to get fired in May's campaign.

Interesting the poll comes from a right-wing paper as well and on the same day that the express claims her lead has increased.

According to Another Angry Voice, they have been... sort of.
Two of her most senior spin doctors apparently quit over the snap election, and AAV claims that it's gone unreported, pointing out how big a stink would have been made had Corbyn's two most senior staff officials quit.

for some reason nobody likes Corbyn.

Ever checked his proposals? It's top-tier madness.

Only if you're a minarchist.
Not if you're sensible or have a shred of empathy.

[Rhodesia]

Corbyns policy's are very popular with the public. They've always been, his weakness comes from the publics perception of him as an extremist.

It also isn't a drop. The last Survation poll had the Tories at 38%. It's an increase. Polls are only really compatible with polls from the same polling company as they all use different methodology. In the case of Survation, they are infamous for overestimating Labour.

I think in 2015 they were all guilty of this. On average, the polls under-estimated Tory support by over 4% and over-estimated Labour support by almost 3%.

[Atlanticatia]

Why is this person the leader of the Lib Dems??? http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/t ... a9ce5bf442?

"Lib Dem leader Tim Farron was branded “pretty offensive” today as he again refused to say whether he believed gay sex is a sin.

Farron, who is a committed Christian, repeatedly dodged the question during an appearance on ITV’s Peston on Sunday.

The Lib Dem leader repeated the assertion he made in the House of Commons earlier this week that homosexuality itself is not a sin, but did not answer when asked for his view on gay sex.

Tory MP Michael Gove – also a Christian – said he had no problem saying gay sex is not a sin, while Labour MP Liz Kendall claimed “a lot of people will be appalled” by Farron’s dodging of the question."

It's just disgusting and embarrassing. There's no justification for someone with that view in 2017 to be given a national platform, let alone the leader of the Liberal Democrats, no matter what his policy views are. Personal views matter.

[Neu Leonstein]

[...] In reality nobody has any idea where she stands on Brexit.

This had occurred to me too. The problem is no one really knows what May is thinking. [...]

Well, yeah, that's true. But I have to be realistic here. What are my options? The current situation is bad. David Davis and his ilk are relatively powerful, and from what I can tell they would quite happily stick me and a few million others in special camps to ease processing before shipping us off in cattle trucks if it meant they could feel like they won a victory over Brussels (and yes, I'm exaggerating, but only slightly). This election won't make his lot any more powerful, but there is the small chance that when it comes to crunch time, it could strengthen the position of May and Hammond ("some amount of money will have to be paid"; "some interim period during which freedom of movement still applies is reasonable"). Maybe I'm wrong about May and she's more Davis than Hammond. But if so, I won't have lost anything. She's already powerful enough to push through the Dirty Brexit. This election could make her powerful enough to arrange a clean one.

And sure, all of that is a second best world to one in which Labour could or would actually apply some pressure to arrange a Soft Brexit, or one in which a different interpretation of the referendum result from the Hard Brexit was allowed to be uttered. But that's not the world I find myself in. So really, could this election make things any worse than they already are? On balance, I think the answer is 'probably not'.

Could go either way. I was thinking along the lines of her having more authority to drag everyone along to her stated position of a relatively hard Brexit the larger a mandate she gets. I'm sticking with the funeral procession that is the Labour campaign for now, for reasons other than Brexit.

And that's fair enough. Just because I think that an election happening now is okay doesn't mean that I would advocate voting for the Tories. I suspect that if I was allowed to vote, I would look carefully at the attitude of my local MP to Brexit and decide more or less only on that.

But I'm a single issue 'voter' when it comes to this thing. Whatever other domestic policies there might be - they can all be reversed with the next parliament. Whatever damage is done would be limited. But Brexit is a one-time thing. It is for all intents and purposes irreversible. It matters a great deal whether or not it's done right.

[Imperializt Russia]

Why is this person the leader of the Lib Dems??? http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/t ... a9ce5bf442?

"Lib Dem leader Tim Farron was branded “pretty offensive” today as he again refused to say whether he believed gay sex is a sin.

Farron, who is a committed Christian, repeatedly dodged the question during an appearance on ITV’s Peston on Sunday.

The Lib Dem leader repeated the assertion he made in the House of Commons earlier this week that homosexuality itself is not a sin, but did not answer when asked for his view on gay sex.

Tory MP Michael Gove – also a Christian – said he had no problem saying gay sex is not a sin, while Labour MP Liz Kendall claimed “a lot of people will be appalled” by Farron’s dodging of the question."

It's just disgusting and embarrassing. There's no justification for someone with that view in 2017 to be given a national platform, let alone the leader of the Liberal Democrats, no matter what his policy views are. Personal views matter.

I fundamentally disagree.

While Farron's failure to come up with what he would consider an "acceptable answer" to a question explicitly designed to try and catch him out is somewhat shameful, the ability for a person to legitimately separate their personal views and what they think should make public policy is fantastic, and sorely lacking in modern politics.
Just take a gander at Theresa May who is unable to separate her personal views and public policy and has basically waged a backroom war on homosexuality at home and abroad.

I'll take "I'm not a fan of homosexuality, but why the fuck does it matter, because that would make for shit and unjust policy" over May's "I am a Christian politician" horseshite a thousand times.

Also for the record homosexuality is regarded in the bible as an "abomination", not a sin.

[HMS Queen Elizabeth]

She's already powerful enough to push through the Dirty Brexit. This election could make her powerful enough to arrange a clean one.

May is powerful enough to do anything she wants so long as Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party. Your analysis makes a lot of sense if we assume that Remainers were guaranteed not to regain power in the Labour Party before 2020, and that May would be riding as high in the polls in 2020 as she is now despite any Brexit shenanigans. I'm not sure either of those are safe assumptions. Her explanation that she wants a solid Tory majority to do Brexit and a term that extends considerably beyond the Article 50 period to reduce the EU's ability to leverage British internal politics in the negotiations us plausible. I accept your explanation is also plausible though.

[Philjia]

Why is this person the leader of the Lib Dems??? http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/t ... a9ce5bf442?

"Lib Dem leader Tim Farron was branded “pretty offensive” today as he again refused to say whether he believed gay sex is a sin.

Farron, who is a committed Christian, repeatedly dodged the question during an appearance on ITV’s Peston on Sunday.

The Lib Dem leader repeated the assertion he made in the House of Commons earlier this week that homosexuality itself is not a sin, but did not answer when asked for his view on gay sex.

Tory MP Michael Gove – also a Christian – said he had no problem saying gay sex is not a sin, while Labour MP Liz Kendall claimed “a lot of people will be appalled” by Farron’s dodging of the question."

It's just disgusting and embarrassing. There's no justification for someone with that view in 2017 to be given a national platform, let alone the leader of the Liberal Democrats, no matter what his policy views are. Personal views matter.

Not really. The problem here is that he's somehow been unable to come up with the correct response, which is "yes, but frankly that's not important because I'm a liberal".

[Mollary]

Which means this snap election was strategically a good idea - Labour will probably lose even more seats and Conservatives will gain more.

Assuming the same polls that predicted a Remain victory are suddenly accurate.

The polls weren't far out on brexit, they were basically tied and the leave victory was well within the scope of what they predicted.

[Vassenor]

Why is this person the leader of the Lib Dems??? http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/t ... a9ce5bf442?

"Lib Dem leader Tim Farron was branded “pretty offensive” today as he again refused to say whether he believed gay sex is a sin.

Farron, who is a committed Christian, repeatedly dodged the question during an appearance on ITV’s Peston on Sunday.

The Lib Dem leader repeated the assertion he made in the House of Commons earlier this week that homosexuality itself is not a sin, but did not answer when asked for his view on gay sex.

Tory MP Michael Gove – also a Christian – said he had no problem saying gay sex is not a sin, while Labour MP Liz Kendall claimed “a lot of people will be appalled” by Farron’s dodging of the question."

It's just disgusting and embarrassing. There's no justification for someone with that view in 2017 to be given a national platform, let alone the leader of the Liberal Democrats, no matter what his policy views are. Personal views matter.

You mean the guy who has repeatedly voted in favour of LGBT rights?

[Imperializt Russia]

Why is this person the leader of the Lib Dems??? http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/t ... a9ce5bf442?


It's just disgusting and embarrassing. There's no justification for someone with that view in 2017 to be given a national platform, let alone the leader of the Liberal Democrats, no matter what his policy views are. Personal views matter.

You mean the guy who has repeatedly voted in favour of LGBT rights?

I find the claim that "there's no justification for someone with that view in [current year] to be given a national platform", but Theresa "list of government-approved sex acts" May, "government-approved number of fingers for insertion" May, "Afghani homosexuals can totes go back to Kabul because it's pretty safe, just pretend to be straight" May, "we'll only accept your LGBT persecution asylum claim if you provide video evidence of you being gay and even then, probs not and we might just deport you back to be killed anyway" May doesn't get a concurrent mention in the same post to be interesting.

[The Wolfiad]

http://theliberal.ie/bertie-ahern-comes ... ng-memory/

Bertie, a ledge from Ireland who brokered a peace deal by not speaking English properly, doesn't think Corbyn can win it .

[The Wolfiad]

So you should all probably take this with a pinch of salt, but someone I know who's put himself forward for selection as a Labour candidate has said that David Miliband and Tony Blair have been making enquiries too. It's unlikely when unions carve up seats that they'd actually get any so they probably won't put themselves forward. Still interesting nevertheless. If Blair is selected I look forward to the image of Momentum campaigning for him.

EDIT: https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/ ... 5436650497 COINCIDENTALLY.

[Angleter]

Why is this person the leader of the Lib Dems??? http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/t ... a9ce5bf442?

"Lib Dem leader Tim Farron was branded “pretty offensive” today as he again refused to say whether he believed gay sex is a sin.

Farron, who is a committed Christian, repeatedly dodged the question during an appearance on ITV’s Peston on Sunday.

The Lib Dem leader repeated the assertion he made in the House of Commons earlier this week that homosexuality itself is not a sin, but did not answer when asked for his view on gay sex.

Tory MP Michael Gove – also a Christian – said he had no problem saying gay sex is not a sin, while Labour MP Liz Kendall claimed “a lot of people will be appalled” by Farron’s dodging of the question."

It's just disgusting and embarrassing. There's no justification for someone with that view in 2017 to be given a national platform, let alone the leader of the Liberal Democrats, no matter what his policy views are. Personal views matter.

Get your Test Acts out for the lads. Party like it's 1699.

[Philjia]

Meanwhile in UKIP

She told the Herald: "I am not anti-gay – but how can you call that a community? Sex life is everybody’s private affair. You do not come out and declare openly.

"Do you think I am going all over the city and saying my idea of a sexually-attractive creature is a gorilla?

"When I go to a zoo and I see a gorilla my hormones go absolutely crazy. I find a gorilla very attractive."