[UK] General Election 2017 Superthread

[HMS Queen Elizabeth]

It's perfectly reasonable to criticise a party for lack of spine. Government is a practical art as well as an abstract one. Some people fail to manage or lead despite having good ideas - which is not necessarily to say I believe Liberal Democrat ideas are good. Labour is also an example of this although their problem is different.

[Souseiseki]

May doesn't seem too bad. Far from good, and definitely scummy and opportunistic - but I suppose it isn't the worst thing ever.

tell me everything you know about theresa may

[Fartsniffage]

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/ ... 0421126395

[The Wolfiad]

May doesn't seem too bad. Far from good, and definitely scummy and opportunistic - but I suppose it isn't the worst thing ever.

tell me everything you know about theresa may

Should you tell him everything you know about Corbyn too? For balance so we can figure out who the biggest extremist is.

[Philjia]

My local MP won't be standing for re-election, citing "health, age and my family's needs". I'll miss him. He was a proper old school northern Labour hard man who didn't take shit from anybody. In a somewhat concerning development, his replacement will be selected by the National Executive Committee rather than by the local party. This won't impact the result, since my constituency is red as red can be, but it does suggest that the central party is trying to tighten it's grip on power.

[The Wolfiad]

My local MP won't be standing for re-election, citing "health, age and my family's needs". I'll miss him. He was a proper old school northern Labour hard man who didn't take shit from anybody. In a somewhat concerning development, his replacement will be selected by the National Executive Committee rather than by the local party. This won't impact the result, since my constituency is red as red can be, but it does suggest that the central party is trying to tighten it's grip on power.

Just a clarification, NEC is conducting selections because there's no time to do a full round of selection. It's an extraordinary happening, not a power seizure. Is it David Anderson or Alan Johnson by any chance?

[Philjia]

My local MP won't be standing for re-election, citing "health, age and my family's needs". I'll miss him. He was a proper old school northern Labour hard man who didn't take shit from anybody. In a somewhat concerning development, his replacement will be selected by the National Executive Committee rather than by the local party. This won't impact the result, since my constituency is red as red can be, but it does suggest that the central party is trying to tighten it's grip on power.

Just a clarification, NEC is conducting selections because there's no time to do a full round of selection. It's an extraordinary happening, not a power seizure. Is it David Anderson or Alan Johnson by any chance?

That'd be revealing a little too much detail.

[Questers]

That specific reason is Alan Johnson. City of culture eh!

[The Liberated Territories]

I am not voting because obviously, I am not a UK national, but even if I was I'd probably still wouldn't vote given the selection of horrible candidates.

[Fartsniffage]

I am not voting because obviously, I am not a UK national, but even if I was I'd probably still wouldn't vote given the selection of horrible candidates.

You reviewed the candidates for every seat before they even all announced?

[The Liberated Territories]

I am not voting because obviously, I am not a UK national, but even if I was I'd probably still wouldn't vote given the selection of horrible candidates.

You reviewed the candidates for every seat before they even all announced?

I don't need to review them to know that they'll probably all be horrible! (Also one can make a good guess who might be running.)

[Fartsniffage]

You reviewed the candidates for every seat before they even all announced?

I don't need to review them to know that they'll probably all be horrible! (Also one can make a good guess who might be running.)

For all 650 seats? You really are good.

[New Werpland]

The Liberal Democrats want to destroy the NHS?

[Fartsniffage]

The Liberal Democrats want to destroy the NHS?

What?

[Irona]

National newspaper headlines running today: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs/the_papers

Haha it turns out May's team is even more incompetent than Corbyn at campaigning! They backtracked this morning but it's to late for the papers. You don't start an election campaign by letting newspapers tell people your promising to cut pensions and raise taxes!

[Frank Zipper]

Eric Pickles is standing down, another political heavyweight going.

[Anywhere Else But Here]

Eric Pickles is standing down, another political heavyweight going.

Get. Out.

[Vassenor]

Eric Pickles is standing down, another political heavyweight going.

Obligatory.

[Philjia]

Eric Pickles is standing down, another political heavyweight going.

I'm stealing this joke.

[Vassenor]

No votes for expats who've been living abroad for more than 15 years.

[Krumbia]

No votes for expats who've been living abroad for more than 15 years.

Seems to be a pretty sensible measure.

[The Archregimancy]

For those of you who think internal LibDem estimates of potential gains in a June are a little (or more than a little) on the optimistic side, here's a counter argument from the Political Betting website:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index. ... dem-gains/

Key excerpt for those of you who prefer not to click on links:

In the wake of Brexit, the Lib Dems have found a new purpose as the party of ultra-Remain. It has gained vote share in every Parliamentary by-election held since the referendum that it has contested. Following the announcement of a snap general election, former MPs who had previously retired from politics, like Vince Cable and Stephen Lloyd, have deretired in an attempt to win back their seats. Hopes are high of substantial gains.

The bookies have by and large bought this story. The current midpoints of their seat counts range between 26.5 and 29.5 (with prices at 5/6 on offer over or under the set midpoints). Given that the Lib Dems currently only hold 9 seats, this implies a major bounceback. Is this right?

Bluntly, I don’t think it is. You can look at this lots of different ways and none of them stack up.

Let’s look at this first by swing. Here are the Lib Dems’ top 100 targets organised by swing. They pick up 18 seats if they get a 6% swing to themselves in these seats. But at present the Lib Dems are suffering an adverse national swing to the Conservatives of 2% or so if the polls are to be believed, and 11 of those 18 seats are Conservative-held. There are going to need to be some major special factors to buck the national swing to that extent (I’ll come back to Brexit, don’t worry) – or other gains from other parties. But there simply aren’t that many targets within reach on a uniform swing from other parties. The Lib Dems would need a 7.5% swing to them from the SNP to pick up six seats and an 8% swing to them from Labour to pick up six seats. In the absence of any national swing in Scotland from the SNP to the Lib Dems, they’re going to need some serious unionist tactical voting.

What special factors might there be? Two are usually mentioned in relation to the Lib Dems. First, their indefatigable local campaigning, effectively treating each constituency as a by-election. And secondly, Brexit.

Let’s deal with Brexit first. The line of argument goes that 48% of the public voted for Remain. No one else is going into bat for the Remainers, so the Lib Dem ratings can soar from the 8% that they tallied in 2015. There’s only one problem with this line of argument: not that many people seem to be ready to vote just on Brexit. In ICM’s poll conducted immediately in the wake of the election announcement, just 17% said that it was a second referendum by proxy, with 67% treating it as a normal general election. Of course, a substantial number of that 17% will be wishing to underscore the need to Leave, and they will not assist the Lib Dems one little bit.

Roughly 95 constituencies voted Remain by more than 60%. But very few are the Conservative/Lib Dem marginals and semi-marginals that the Lib Dems would need to build up a head of steam in if they are to start making substantial gains.

<snip>

Is it possible that the Lib Dems might catch the zeitgeist and we might see Farronmania at some point? Possible, but unlikely. 25 seats looks very stretching indeed – the Lib Dems should be very happy if they get to 20 seats.

[The Archregimancy]

No votes for expats who've been living abroad for more than 15 years.

My parents (who've been living in the United States since 1980) will be disappointed.

I see arguments both pro- and anti- the measure, but it's worth noting that there's nothing to suggest this won't eventually be introduced if (or rather, when) May wins the election; only that it won't be introduced in time for this election. It's just one of several pieces of legislation that have been lost to the snap election, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it in place for the 2022 election.

[Myrensis]

So, when Labour gets mauled due to Corbyn's brilliant ability to constantly ignore the gift-wrapped lines of attack and criticism the Tories have been handing out for months, will he finally go? Or will the party membership keep him in and complain about how the PLP is defying him for no reason?

[Burgundian Union]

Jesus the tax thing was a terrible campaign starter, like could you start campaign with a worse comment?