[UK] General Election 2017 Superthread

[Frank Zipper]

I think the €20-€80bn estimate also includes other commitments (like pension for British MEPs and risk of EU loans agreed by UK going bad etc)

I'm comfortable with not paying Nigel Farage his MEP pension.

[The Wolfiad]

Local campaigning will resume today by Labour and I think the Tories. Both parties will reinitiate their campaigns on Friday.

http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2017/0 ... our-surge/

Little point I want to touch upon about the polls. Last year between the two parties Labour gained 44% of the total votes cast for either Conservative or Tory. Based upon the last YouGov poll, I've worked out in spite of the polling increase Labour, the overall polling increase for the Tories compared to 2015 means that Labour still remains at 44%. In essence what has happened that the increasing amount of votes for the two parties should have benefited the Tories more considering their previous leads, however May's hiccups has meant some of it has drifted to Labour... yet it only puts us at the strength of the Miliband-era Labour Party. If we had a better Leader we perhaps could have an increased proportion of votes among the two parties or ideally a majority. This article above by Conor Pope also gives another analysis into the polling.

EDIT: I've also checked with the other polling companies. The last ORB and Survation (online) poll has us at 42.5%, the Survation phone poll has us at 44%, the last ICM poll at 41%. So technically we are doing worse than Ed Miliband when it all averages out. We live in a two-party system, so the most important metric for one of the two parties is the percentage of votes held relative to the other party. So for instance, even though some polls have Labour polling at the same amount as Blair in 2005, Blair still had a majority of votes cast between the two parties (52% of votes cast for Labour, 48% for the Tories).

milliband era is magic compared to the doom and gloom we heard about corbyn is going to tank the labour party

Not sure on what you are exactly saying, but I don't think of either Brown or Miliband too highly beyond a few things (i.e. Labour's response to the recession - would had been better if Blair got his way in 2005 and we cut public spending from thereon, Brown's fantastic oratory, Brown's sharp and intelligent mind, Miliband pushing for Leveson to be enacted etc). I just think Corbyn is exceptionally terrible to the point it makes those two seem like the greatest Leaders we ever had.

[Great Nepal]

I think the €20-€80bn estimate also includes other commitments (like pension for British MEPs and risk of EU loans agreed by UK going bad etc)

I'm comfortable with not paying Nigel Farage his MEP pension.

Best way would be for UK to take over those payments and pass a bill titled "suck it nigel" which retroactively strips him of mep status. I wonder if he'd then sue UK in ECHR...

[Olerand]

Money pledged by the United Kingdom to EU programs and initiatives that it was a part of. Why does the United Kingdom insist on shirking its responsibilities? Where is that famous British resolve, that commitment to your obligations?

Money pledged to the EU, as a member of the EU, with the intention of remaining a member. There are no responsibilities, unless the EU can point to the binding legislation that stipulates a member must continue paying for such programs once outside of the EU.

The EU budget is a seven year long document. The United Kingdom pledged money in obligations to EU programs and initiatives that it benefited from, and will most likely still benefit from (even indirectly) after it leaves. The EU is asking for that pledged money.

There are of course no binding legislation, unless if the UK wants to take this to the ECJ. But the EU can stall indefinitely if that is what it wants to do.

Money pledged by the United Kingdom to EU programs and initiatives that it was a part of. Why does the United Kingdom insist on shirking its responsibilities? Where is that famous British resolve, that commitment to your obligations?

Well these are our responsibilities as a member of the eu
And the British people have strongly urged us to withdraw our membership of the European union
What is the french stance on Brexit and what are their negotiation points

You pledged that money. The EU budget is a seven year long commitment. The UK promised those funds.

There is no French stance, France is represented by the EU. But Paris is probably one of the more "hardline" governments in behind the scenes negotiations in Brussels.

The UK can try to negotiate the amount owed for commitments already agreed to, but it will slow down negotiations, meaning the possibility of no deal at all becomes much more likely. No deal at all will cost us far more in the long run.

Since the tories have not guaranteed the rights of the 3.5 or so million EU nationals living in the UK I'm sure that will be used as leverage to banish this nonsense "divorce bill".

You won't get anything from this other than pissing the EU off. This is a terrible bargaining chip, similar to the EU bargaining with the 1 million plus British residing in its borders.

They stand to lose one of the largest net contributors to their budget, it's not a little. And I still haven't seen any legal justification for this "divorce bill", have you?

That will happen regardless; and we're talking about about 5bn per year - or 5% of EU's current income. Germany alone could cover that by increasing its commitment by 3.5% or current group of net contributors could make it up by adding 500m per country.

Largely breaks down to commitments made to the budget (reasonable - UK agreed to make payments until 2020 and got things like rebate based on that commitment), ongoing costs associated with British membership (mostly reasonable - EU incurred ongoing costs such as pensions based on reasonable expectation of ongoing contributions from UK), risks signed up to by Britain when it was a member (again reasonable - UK agreed to take on risks associated with defaults so), and cost of withdrawal process (probably not reasonable). UK could probably discuss alternatives for all these cases: ongoing payment till 2020, taking on commitments from EU, separate loan agreement etc but none of these are unreasonable in principle. UK could of course tell EU to suck it because enforcing things against a sovereign state is hard, but then EU will quite likely return the favor by introducing legislation targeted at UK based businesses.

I highly doubt that the EU is asking for a lump sum payment to be made now. It's more likely that Brussels would want the UK to simply keep up with its pledged funds until the pledges expire.

[Frank Zipper]

I like UKIP's slogan "The terrorists won't win and neither will we"

[Calladan]

UKIP really have lost the plot. They have written one of the most incredibly racist, bigoted, hate filled manifestos I have EVER seen. I swear to god you would think the BNP or the KKK wrote it.

It is so bigoted, hate filled and racist that are parts of it that are ludicrously self-contradictory.

On one page they plan to ban the Burqa and the Niqab, because they say it is a barrier to integration, hides evidence of domestic abuse and inhibits Vitamin D intake.

And yet on another page, they write this :-

Protect religious freedoms in accordance with Article 18 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, provided those beliefs exist firmly within the framework of British law. We will not condone any faith position that is itself intolerant of the human rights of others

Now, I admit I am not a lawyer, but how does wearing a Burqa contradict British Law? And how is it intolerant of the human rights of others? I am fairly sure I don't have a right to see everyone's face when I walk down the street. And I am fairly sure that wearing a Burqa must be covered by the religious freedoms of Article 18 of the UDHR. (Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong).

So if they are going to protect religious freedoms, how exactly are they going to ban an article of clothing that is probably covered by that? Except by being a bunch of hypocritical tosspots?

They plan annual screenings for girls under the age of sixteen who are deemed to be "at risk" of FGM. Which while it sounds good means they get to target families they don't like (and it won't be "good, decent Christian families" - oh no, you can count on that!) and there were a lot of anti-FGM campaigners who thought this would be incredibly traumatic for the girls in question. Plus on top of that, any "at risk" girls returning from countries were FGM is "the cultural norm" would also be subjected to additional checks.

This entire manifesto seems to be an attempt to say "FUCK THE MUSLIMS" and make Britain a country where anyone who isn't Christian or Jewish (or - lets be honest - white) feel no longer welcome and drive them out. It is one of the most appalling things I have read in a good long while, and that includes "My Immortal".

They also plan to enshrine St George's Day and St David's Day as bank holidays, but the Scots and Norther Irish can go fuck themselves. Which is probably the only policy that has nothing to do with Muslims in the entire fucking manifesto, but is still pretty insulting to half the population of the country (and is it a co-incidence it is the half that voted against leaving the EU? Probably not).

[The Wolfiad]

Holy shitballs, latest YouGov poll:

CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi- ... ndary=2015

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingo ... D=10&GRN=2

[Olerand]

Holy shitballs, latest YouGov poll:

CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi- ... ndary=2015

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingo ... D=10&GRN=2

... Is Labour actually gaining ground? Amazing!

[Souseiseki]

Holy shitballs, latest YouGov poll:

CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi- ... ndary=2015

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingo ... D=10&GRN=2

corbyn the supposedly unelectable launches his final attack

tories sweat bullets as right-wing labour look at each other, not sure whether to support him or flank him

may continues to hide and do nothing and hope she wins on intertia

[The Wolfiad]

FFSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

https://apple.news/A30q8-JPHREuSAG-hTdp1qA

ONE JOB! ONE FUCKING JOB! AND NOW HE'S ALREADY GONE AND BLOWN IT. WELL FUCKING DONE.

[Vassenor]

Holy shitballs, latest YouGov poll:

CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi- ... ndary=2015

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingo ... D=10&GRN=2

corbyn the supposedly unelectable launches his final attack

tories sweat bullets as right-wing labour look at each other, not sure whether to support him or flank him

may continues to hide and do nothing and hope she wins on intertia

While trying to convince herself that everyone is OK with her having protesters arrested for disrupting her echo chamber.

[Frank Zipper]

A hung parliament would be glorious.

[The Wolfiad]

Holy shitballs, latest YouGov poll:

CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi- ... ndary=2015

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingo ... D=10&GRN=2

... Is Labour actually gaining ground? Amazing!

Well yeah, but once again Corbyn has to go give me a heartache. I swear to God this is some crazy abusive relationship, the polling gives me hope and then he goes and makes another foreign policy gaffe.

[The Wolfiad]

A hung parliament would be glorious.

Probably would still be a Tory majority due to Scotland gains but would be in single digits. Pretty ecstatic (and nervous, considering what Corbyn's come out and said).

[Olerand]

... Is Labour actually gaining ground? Amazing!

Well yeah, but once again Corbyn has to go give me a heartache. I swear to God this is some crazy abusive relationship, the polling gives me hope and then he goes and makes another foreign policy gaffe.

I love that. I hope Corbyn makes that speech. What an ironic twist of history. France elects a liberal centrist, chouchou of the markets, and Britain elects an Islamo-gauchiste old leftist. Beautiful. Life is grand.

Supposing these polls hold and Corbyn keeps, despite all odds, gaining ground of course.

[Shrillland]

Well yeah, but once again Corbyn has to go give me a heartache. I swear to God this is some crazy abusive relationship, the polling gives me hope and then he goes and makes another foreign policy gaffe.

I love that. I hope Corbyn makes that speech. What an ironic twist of history. France elects a liberal centrist, chouchou of the markets, and Britain elects an Islamo-gauchiste old leftist. Beautiful. Life is grand.

Supposing these polls hold and Corbyn keeps, despite all odds, gaining ground of course.

I'm actually surprised that May hasn't pulled the classic campaign response after a terrorist attack, i.e. wrap the Union Jack round herself and play patriotism like a used Hammond Organ. It works just about everywhere else.

[Vassenor]

I love that. I hope Corbyn makes that speech. What an ironic twist of history. France elects a liberal centrist, chouchou of the markets, and Britain elects an Islamo-gauchiste old leftist. Beautiful. Life is grand.

Supposing these polls hold and Corbyn keeps, despite all odds, gaining ground of course.

I'm actually surprised that May hasn't pulled the classic campaign response after a terrorist attack, i.e. wrap the Union Jack round herself and play patriotism like a used Hammond Organ. It works just about everywhere else.

People are already screaming about how this was a false flag to boost her numbers. Not sure she wants to fan those flames.

[Souseiseki]

FFSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

https://apple.news/A30q8-JPHREuSAG-hTdp1qA

ONE JOB! ONE FUCKING JOB! AND NOW HE'S ALREADY GONE AND BLOWN IT. WELL FUCKING DONE.

he's not wrong. the rise of ISIS is inextricably linked to the iraq war and how it was handled, though obviously it's not exactly going to become a popular talking point.

e: he even says it doesn't make the attack any less horrible or take responsibility away from the attackers, but that's not going to make the headlines either.

[Mostrov]

‎

[Vassenor]

Remember when my predictions about a victory seemed a little daft?

If he does win, we would likely see a coup—no time in the last two centuries have the military ever made political threats as they have. In this current mood, that could quite quickly turn into a civil-war. And consider you have popular ground swell to 'do something' about all the Muslims!

Why is everyone so obsessed with the idea of a Military Coup?

And what happens if Liz pulls a Juan Carlos and tells the military to stop being stupid?

[Salandriagado]

Remember when my predictions about a victory seemed a little daft?

If he does win, we would likely see a coup—no time in the last two centuries have the military ever made political threats as they have. In this current mood, that could quite quickly turn into a civil-war. And consider you have popular ground swell to 'do something' about all the Muslims!

Why is everyone so obsessed with the idea of a Military Coup?

And what happens if Liz pulls a Juan Carlos and tells the military to stop being stupid?

I haven't seen anybody other than Mostrov even mention a coup.

[Hydesland]

Did someone say coup? Coup guys? Coup!

[Vassenor]

Why is everyone so obsessed with the idea of a Military Coup?

And what happens if Liz pulls a Juan Carlos and tells the military to stop being stupid?

I haven't seen anybody other than Mostrov even mention a coup.

Supposedly it did the rounds when he was first elected leader with various senior military types saying they'd start one if he was elected PM.

[Hydesland]

I haven't seen anybody other than Mostrov even mention a coup.

Supposedly it did the rounds when he was first elected leader with various senior military types saying they'd start one if he was elected PM.

Was this around the same time Corbyn was going full anti NATO, and claiming Russia "weren't unprovoked" with their actions in Ukraine?

[Souseiseki]

no officer, i was saying "coo! coo!", like a chicken