BREXIT Mega Thread (The Saga Begins?)

[Pasong Tirad]

I'm seeing how Brexit will affect the Scottish - but how about the Northern Irish and Gibraltar?

[Vassenor]

I'm seeing how Brexit will affect the Scottish - but how about the Northern Irish and Gibraltar?

Everyone is trying to quietly ignore those bits because there is the potential for things to get rocky.

[Souseiseki]

I'm seeing how Brexit will affect the Scottish - but how about the Northern Irish and Gibraltar?

northern ireland - main concern is the border with ireland. we're basically hoping at this point the EU gives us yet another special snowflake deal to make sure there is no hard border in ireland. we have said we "want" to avoid a hard border and that will "negotiate" to avoid it. if those sound like very very weak words that is because they are. try not to restart the troubles lol!

gibraltar - fucked. dependent on single market access (which we're not even trying to get anymore) and freedom of movement (lol) for survival. will need to accept massive decrease in living standards or joint sovereignty with spain. that is the best case scenario, where spain does not deliberately make things harder. spain have also said they'll block the UK's access to the EU's single aviation market unless gibraltar is excluded.

[Pasong Tirad]

I'm seeing how Brexit will affect the Scottish - but how about the Northern Irish and Gibraltar?

northern ireland - main concern is the border with ireland. we're basically hoping at this point the EU gives us yet another special snowflake deal to make sure there is no hard border in ireland. we have said we "want" to avoid a hard border and that will "negotiate" to avoid it. if those sound like very very weak words that is because they are. try not to restart the troubles lol!

gibraltar - fucked. dependent on single market access (which we're not even trying to get anymore) and freedom of movement (lol) for survival. will need to accept massive decrease in living standards or joint sovereignty with spain. that is the best case scenario, where spain does not deliberately make things harder. spain have also said they'll block the UK's access to the EU's single aviation market unless gibraltar is excluded.

So no chance of either Northern Ireland reuniting with the rest of Ireland? Or of Gibraltar being Spanish (or independent?)?

[Cepcecic Ghost]

I'm seeing how Brexit will affect the Scottish - but how about the Northern Irish and Gibraltar?

Everyone is trying to quietly ignore those bits because there is the potential for things to get rocky.

It's probably for the better.

[Souseiseki]

northern ireland - main concern is the border with ireland. we're basically hoping at this point the EU gives us yet another special snowflake deal to make sure there is no hard border in ireland. we have said we "want" to avoid a hard border and that will "negotiate" to avoid it. if those sound like very very weak words that is because they are. try not to restart the troubles lol!

gibraltar - fucked. dependent on single market access (which we're not even trying to get anymore) and freedom of movement (lol) for survival. will need to accept massive decrease in living standards or joint sovereignty with spain. that is the best case scenario, where spain does not deliberately make things harder. spain have also said they'll block the UK's access to the EU's single aviation market unless gibraltar is excluded.

So no chance of either Northern Ireland reuniting with the rest of Ireland? Or of Gibraltar being Spanish (or independent?)?

very unlikely

[Pasong Tirad]

So no chance of either Northern Ireland reuniting with the rest of Ireland? Or of Gibraltar being Spanish (or independent?)?

very unlikely

How about Scotland? Very likely or is it going to be like the last referendum?

[Greed and Death]

I'm just going to repost this here as a reference piece, just because it's the best write-up I've seen about the "Brexit bill", i.e. the EUR 60-odd billion that the EU says Britain owes as part of leaving.

https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/fi ... 3feb17.pdf

The problem I see with the Make Brexit painful make Britain pay crowd is they are trying to keep other EU members within the EU by fear.

[Greed and Death]

very unlikely

How about Scotland? Very likely or is it going to be like the last referendum?

The problem with Scotland is it is still in French and Spanish interest to block EU membership to dissuade their own separatist movements.

[Souseiseki]

How about Scotland? Very likely or is it going to be like the last referendum?

The problem with Scotland is it is still in French and Spanish interest to block EU membership to dissuade their own separatist movements.

spain will not block legal secession

how many times do they need to say it

[Hydesland]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 56506.html

"The negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle our interlinked relationship... and only when this question is dealt with, can we, hopefully soon after, begin talking about our future relationship."

What the fuck is the difference? How we disentangle our interlinked relationship is entirely dependent on future trade relationships - that is literally fundamentally embedded into the question, how could we possibly begin to disentangle our relationship without resolving post Brexit trade relationships? This is a supremely non pragmatic and unnecessary powerplay, but I'm sure the many Merkel sycophants won't see it that way.

[Genivaria]

Citation Needed.

LOL

You're talking bullshit got it.

[Geilinor]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-article-50-angela-merkel-rejects-theresa-may-parallel-talks-a7656506.html

"The negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle our interlinked relationship... and only when this question is dealt with, can we, hopefully soon after, begin talking about our future relationship."

What the fuck is the difference? How we disentangle our interlinked relationship is entirely dependent on future trade relationships - that is literally fundamentally embedded into the question, how could we possibly begin to disentangle our relationship without resolving post Brexit trade relationships? This is a supremely non pragmatic and unnecessary powerplay, but I'm sure the many Merkel sycophants won't see it that way.

Article 50 wasn't designed to be a negotiation for a free trade agreement. All it will do is sever the current relationship. There would most likely be a transitional arrangement while a trade agreement was worked out. Negotiating future trade relationships in two years is impossible.

[The East Marches II]

LOL

You're talking bullshit got it.

He has gone over a quite a few times in the British Discussion thread :^)

[Rio Cana]

continuing from the past thread, vassenor posted something satirical about bendy bananas. let's provide some background on the bananas for our international friends.

the european union passed a regulation requiring that malformed, damaged, partially rotted, etc. bananas be classified as class 2 bananas and bananas free from defects be classified as class 1 bananas. it makes sense that producers and consumers know what they're getting, as people generally prefer class 1 bananas over class 2 bananas and people trying to sell bananas generally prefer class 1 bananas because of that. they're not even banned. you can still buy your shitty low quality bananas if you really want. it sounds like a fairly sensible regulation to be honest, and even if it's not it seems like a minor inconvenience at best.

this... was turned into a national meme. papers ran stories for days about the EU banning bendy bananas. british citizens endlessly regurgitated the story of the EU banning bendy bananas as a top example of the kind of craaaaaaaazy EU regulations they wanted to get rid of. one woman said she legitimately make her mind up about voting leave after looking at a banana in the super market.

they still bring it up to this day. a recent telegrqah article about the worst EU regulations they were looking forward to getting rid of was bananas, light bulbs (a UK regulation that won't go away), renewable energy targets, something about protecting certain renagered species (a UK regulation that won't go away), vaccuum cleaners and worker's rights legislation. these were the worst regulations that one of the most pro-brexit papers could come up with.

this is the kind of silly bullshit that got us where we are today.

So what is the cost of class 1 bananas and class 2 bananas in the UK.

Here ripe bananas cost .69 US cents a pound in the supermarket. These tend to be better quality. On street corners or bananas trucks that go around the neighborhood you can get 3 pounds for $1.00 US dollar. Quality can be from good to so so. But in the end, the bananas eithier good or so so quality rot in about three or four days because of the heat.

[Neu Leonstein]

I even talked to someone who openly agreed that Britain should pay a significant exit fee because we're "paying our tab at a bar" despite the fact that there's not a single law or treaty which requires Britian to pay it.

You need to stop buying into the government's line wholesale then. It's more complicated than that - Britain agreed to make the payments. The question is whether they are legally enforceable. Britain says "no, our agreement was conditional on us being members because the EU is a stand-alone entity with stand-alone liabilities". The EU says "our budget is based on a joint and several liability guarantee and Britain agreed to take on this liability (including the joint and several part) when it took actions, e.g. voting for the budget, to make it appear". I'm not enough of a lawyer to tell you which claim is stronger. The UK has, astonishingly, found legal experts to say that it doesn't have to pay. The EU has found some to say that it does. The whole thing could go to court. But the point is that it really shouldn't, because Britain has said repeatedly that it wants to keep up good relations and negotiate a whole lot of other agreements, and walking away from a commitment of funding just because you don't think it's not legally enforceable is not a good start to that process.

The problem I see with the Make Brexit painful make Britain pay crowd is they are trying to keep other EU members within the EU by fear.

If that was actually the EU's position, then sure. But it isn't, any more than that the UK government's position is that they shouldn't pay a penny. In reality the EU is just saying: "we can't have a situation in which a member state withdraws from its responsibilities as an EU member while retaining the advantages of being an EU member". That's not vindictive, and I don't think it's fair to call it "punishment".

It is a problem for those Leave campaigners who more or less promised just that with their talk of more funding for the NHS and no more Polish in the supermarket, but a free trade deal and cheap retirement to Ibiza. That's where this story of the vindictive EU comes from.

[Great Nepal]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-article-50-angela-merkel-rejects-theresa-may-parallel-talks-a7656506.html

"The negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle our interlinked relationship... and only when this question is dealt with, can we, hopefully soon after, begin talking about our future relationship."

What the fuck is the difference? How we disentangle our interlinked relationship is entirely dependent on future trade relationships - that is literally fundamentally embedded into the question, how could we possibly begin to disentangle our relationship without resolving post Brexit trade relationships? This is a supremely non pragmatic and unnecessary powerplay, but I'm sure the many Merkel sycophants won't see it that way.

Of course it makes sense. Currently UK is a EU member, EU members don't need to negotiate free trade deals and are legally forbidden from doing so - therefore first order of business is for UK to not be EU member. Once that is achieved, UK will be a third nation, and can negotiate appropriate free trade deals - this difference is quite evident given former requires support of a qualified majority whereas latter requires unanimity. May was trying to entangle the two for quite obvious political reasons, and EU quite rightly pointed out that there are pre-existing mechanisms for this and they're not going to give UK another special snowflake deal by waiving those mechanisms.

[Gim]

I'm seeing how Brexit will affect the Scottish - but how about the Northern Irish and Gibraltar?

Is it just the economy that is being affected or are other factors also involved?

[Vassenor]

I'm seeing how Brexit will affect the Scottish - but how about the Northern Irish and Gibraltar?

Is it just the economy that is being affected or are other factors also involved?

In NI there's the fact that several EU organs form an integral part of the Good Friday Agreement that effectively ended The Troubles. So in theory there isn't going to be a whole lot to stop the IRA going big again.

Despite IDS claiming that voting Leave would mean less terrorism, not more.

[The Lone Alliance]

Well it's going to be messy for sure.

Here's hoping it just doesn't get violent.

[Calladan]

Is it just the economy that is being affected or are other factors also involved?

In NI there's the fact that several EU organs form an integral part of the Good Friday Agreement that effectively ended The Troubles. So in theory there isn't going to be a whole lot to stop the IRA going big again.

Despite IDS claiming that voting Leave would mean less terrorism, not more.

Is it also possible we aren't hearing a lot from Northern Ireland on Brexit right at this moment because they have other things to deal with? Not having a government and all? And that those who are in government in NI could be waiting to see how Scotland/Nicola Sturgeon do before jumping one way or another?

[Great Nepal]

Is it just the economy that is being affected or are other factors also involved?

In NI there's the fact that several EU organs form an integral part of the Good Friday Agreement that effectively ended The Troubles. So in theory there isn't going to be a whole lot to stop the IRA going big again.

Despite IDS claiming that voting Leave would mean less terrorism, not more.

Not to mention UK's threat of putting intelligence sharing as bargaining chip, and fact that Germany won't extradite its citizens to non EU countries quite obviously harms counter terror/ other cross border crime prevention efforts.

[Frank Zipper]

"In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened."

Is a worrying sentence. It appears to be a rather stupid threat to allow preventable terrorism to happen in Europe.

[Dumb Ideologies]

The problem with Scotland is it is still in French and Spanish interest to block EU membership to dissuade their own separatist movements.

spain will not block legal secession

how many times do they need to say it

There is a wider question as to whether the bean-counters and assessors would be happy to let them to join. Scotland would, in the event of a "yes" independence vote, be in the process of divorcing itself from the partner who a huge percentage of its trade is with, be heading into a period of economic uncertainty, and be wanting to imminently join the Euro. I'd imagine that there'd be a lot of concern about the potential for a failing Scotland to become the next Greece, undermining a struggling European project even further.

[Great Nepal]

spain will not block legal secession

how many times do they need to say it

There is a wider question as to whether the bean-counters and assessors would be happy to let them to join. Scotland would, in the event of a "yes" independence vote, be in the process of divorcing itself from the partner who a huge percentage of its trade is with, be heading into a period of economic uncertainty, and be wanting to imminently join the Euro. I'd imagine that there'd be a lot of concern about the potential for a failing Scotland to become the next Greece, undermining a struggling European project even further.

Or it could join EU without joining the Eurozone with the agreement that it will eventually join the Euro pending its economic stabilization, as there is precedent for; therefore not having that impact.