Invasion of North Korea

[New Axiom]

With the current political administration in America, war with NK would go straight to nuclear confrontation and a rise in tensions with China.

[The United Colonies of Earth]

"We've rebuilt before, we'll rebuild again"
Unless the modern nuke really does have similar effects to Covenant glassing. But in the meantime yeah, SK is fucked.

The wider Seoul area is where 80% of South Korean citizens live and home to the various industrial and technological giants that drive the South's economy.

Even a Hiroshima-yield weapon would be absolutely, completely devastating to Seoul and the South with it, especially if the North makes good on its direct and indirect threats to use chemical and biological weapons on Seoul.
Physical damage, direct casualties, radiation fear, global financial damage. This wouldn't be like Japan rebuilding Hiroshima, nor even Germany rebuilding Berlin.

I have gravely underestimated the level of damage such a strike would cause...fuck!

[Imperializt Russia]

No offence, but this has all the precision and accuracy of a palm-reader's generalisations.

Also, that image isn't of "anti-aircraft guns". Saddam gave a standing order to all firearm-owning citizens that on a given signal (IIRC, a 2-second blackout), everyone must stand on their roofs and fire their weapons into the sky.

Wouldn't that be more of a hazard to the Iraqi populace than to any fucking jets?

It made some impressive images, but yes, it was of limited air defence value - maybe Saddam hadn't learned from 1991 nor anticipated the increased use of high-altitude aircraft deploying guided weapons.

Or he was trying to launch a media coup, counting on western media organisations in Baghdad sending back images of tracer fire and hoping it somehow pressured the government from the public to call off the invasion???

[Great Minarchistan]

North Korea is one of the very few exceptions when I'm talking about military intervention. No, seriously, US should set their boots there since China doesn't like them anymore and Putin is in a pseudo-alliance with America. What they are going to do? Zones of occupation like Germany post-WW2 or just give all to South Korea.

[The United Colonies of Earth]

Wouldn't that be more of a hazard to the Iraqi populace than to any fucking jets?

It made some impressive images, but yes, it was of limited air defence value - maybe Saddam hadn't learned from 1991 nor anticipated the increased use of high-altitude aircraft deploying guided weapons.

Or he was trying to launch a media coup, counting on western media organisations in Baghdad sending back images of tracer fire and hoping it somehow pressured the government from the public to call off the invasion???

Your guess is probably better than mine. It sounds like a stupidly bizarre idea.

[Imperializt Russia]

The wider Seoul area is where 80% of South Korean citizens live and home to the various industrial and technological giants that drive the South's economy.

Even a Hiroshima-yield weapon would be absolutely, completely devastating to Seoul and the South with it, especially if the North makes good on its direct and indirect threats to use chemical and biological weapons on Seoul.
Physical damage, direct casualties, radiation fear, global financial damage. This wouldn't be like Japan rebuilding Hiroshima, nor even Germany rebuilding Berlin.

I have gravely underestimated the level of damage such a strike would cause...fuck!

You were half-right. The physical task of rebuilding after a nuclear attack is not difficult. The sheer cost of doing so in today's modern world, and the enormous economic value of Seoul, and the resurgence of radiation fear among the developed countries, would greatly complicate any rebuilding and repopulation efforts - assuming the war following such a strike was short-lived.

[The United Colonies of Earth]

I have gravely underestimated the level of damage such a strike would cause...fuck!

You were half-right. The physical task of rebuilding after a nuclear attack is not difficult. The sheer cost of doing so in today's modern world, and the enormous economic value of Seoul, and the resurgence of radiation fear among the developed countries, would greatly complicate any rebuilding and repopulation efforts - assuming the war following such a strike was short-lived.

Yeah, definitely. Thinking about it, I can imagine all sorts of panics and just...billions, trillions I'm betting, to go to rebuilding Seoul. The nuking of what I'm remembering is an alpha-level global city would be a significant blow. I wonder if it could even be done in two human lifetimes.

[Great Minarchistan]

Yeah, definitely. Thinking about it, I can imagine all sorts of panics and just...billions, trillions I'm betting, to go to rebuilding Seoul. The nuking of what I'm remembering is an alpha-level global city would be a significant blow. I wonder if it could even be done in two human lifetimes.

Toronto costs roughly a trillion dollars so yup, pretty much. And about the building time... 50 years or so in works to reduce radiation level and another fifty or hundred years to rebuild imo.

[The United Colonies of Earth]

Yeah, definitely. Thinking about it, I can imagine all sorts of panics and just...billions, trillions I'm betting, to go to rebuilding Seoul. The nuking of what I'm remembering is an alpha-level global city would be a significant blow. I wonder if it could even be done in two human lifetimes.

Toronto costs roughly a trillion dollars so yup, pretty much. And about the building time... 50 years or so in works to reduce radiation level and another fifty or hundred years to rebuild imo.

Damn, this sounds a lot like the UNSC trying to rebuild glassed planets after the Covenant was through with them.

[Central Asian Republics]

I would be strongly against such an intervention of the kind.

It's warmongering and it should not be done by the US.
China or South Korea should handle the matter; if they absolutely need to.

Ideally, China should make a swift regime change so this buffer nation could continue to do what it has been created to do until reunification plan could be agreed upon.

So intervention by the US is terrible but intervention by China is fully okay?

[The United Colonies of Earth]

I would be strongly against such an intervention of the kind.

It's warmongering and it should not be done by the US.
China or South Korea should handle the matter; if they absolutely need to.

Ideally, China should make a swift regime change so this buffer nation could continue to do what it has been created to do until reunification plan could be agreed upon.

So intervention by the US is terrible but intervention by China is fully okay?

You can only intervene in countries that physically border you or any former iteration of you or which happen to be on any water body smaller than the Arctic Ocean's shorelines which also has one of your coastlines.
Unless you're AmeriKKKKKKKKa then you just get invaded and partitioned by the Revisionist Non-Interventionist powers. /sarc

[Novus America]

North Korea is one of the very few exceptions when I'm talking about military intervention. No, seriously, US should set their boots there since China doesn't like them anymore and Putin is in a pseudo-alliance with America. What they are going to do? Zones of occupation like Germany post-WW2 or just give all to South Korea.

What they can do is rain a lot of artillery, possibly with WMDs on Seoul. While they would lose, they could do a lot of damage going down. Which is why an attack is not worth it.

South Korea would suffer very heavy damage.

The only way the US could stop Seoul from getting blasted is to launch a massive nuclear first strike without warning. While such a strike would be able to achieve its objective of taking out NK's weapons before the could fire, it would obviously be politically unacceptable and too dangerous a precedent to consider. The political and literal fallout would be a major issue.

[Novus America]

I would be strongly against such an intervention of the kind.

It's warmongering and it should not be done by the US.
China or South Korea should handle the matter; if they absolutely need to.

Ideally, China should make a swift regime change so this buffer nation could continue to do what it has been created to do until reunification plan could be agreed upon.

So intervention by the US is terrible but intervention by China is fully okay?

Well better China pay the price than us in all fairness.

[Imperializt Russia]

Yeah, definitely. Thinking about it, I can imagine all sorts of panics and just...billions, trillions I'm betting, to go to rebuilding Seoul. The nuking of what I'm remembering is an alpha-level global city would be a significant blow. I wonder if it could even be done in two human lifetimes.

Toronto costs roughly a trillion dollars so yup, pretty much. And about the building time... 50 years or so in works to reduce radiation level and another fifty or hundred years to rebuild imo.

It won't take 50 years to reduce the radiation level at all. Again, look at Hiroshima.

It may take decades to conduct a radiation-removal cleanup operation, but not because of the radiation danger at all, just because that kind of operation is extremely time-consuming.

IRL investigations into possible consequences of nuclear war suggested that after 16 weeks, radiation levels outside would be low enough, without treatment, to safely spend 16-hour days outside of cover. Sounds restrictive, but think how often you actually spend 16 hours outside.

[Central Asian Republics]

So intervention by the US is terrible but intervention by China is fully okay?

You can only intervene in countries that physically border you or any former iteration of you or which happen to be on any water body smaller than the Arctic Ocean's shorelines which also has one of your coastlines.
Unless you're AmeriKKKKKKKKa then you just get invaded and partitioned by the Revisionist Non-Interventionist powers. /sarc

If you want to get technical, then yes.

[The United Colonies of Earth]

You can only intervene in countries that physically border you or any former iteration of you or which happen to be on any water body smaller than the Arctic Ocean's shorelines which also has one of your coastlines.
Unless you're AmeriKKKKKKKKa then you just get invaded and partitioned by the Revisionist Non-Interventionist powers. /sarc

If you want to get technical, then yes.

I just wanted to get creatively sarcastic

[Novus America]

I have gravely underestimated the level of damage such a strike would cause...fuck!

You were half-right. The physical task of rebuilding after a nuclear attack is not difficult. The sheer cost of doing so in today's modern world, and the enormous economic value of Seoul, and the resurgence of radiation fear among the developed countries, would greatly complicate any rebuilding and repopulation efforts - assuming the war following such a strike was short-lived.

Also the threat is not solely, perhaps not even primarily nuclear. NK lacks delivery mechanisms and it is very likely it's nukes, if even usable could be taken out before they could be used.

But just as much threat comes from literally thousands of cannons shelling Seoul, liklely with chemical weapons as well as conventional shells.

And these being much greater in number are going to be much harder to take out or shoot down before the can be used.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

You were half-right. The physical task of rebuilding after a nuclear attack is not difficult. The sheer cost of doing so in today's modern world, and the enormous economic value of Seoul, and the resurgence of radiation fear among the developed countries, would greatly complicate any rebuilding and repopulation efforts - assuming the war following such a strike was short-lived.

Also the threat is not solely, perhaps not even primarily nuclear. NK lacks delivery mechanisms and it is very likely it's nukes, if even usable could be taken out before they could be used.

But just as much threat comes from literally thousands of cannons shelling Seoul, liklely with chemical weapons as well as conventional shells.

And these being much greater in number are going to be much harder to take out or shoot down before the can be used.

Yup. Looking at 15,000 howitzers and mortars all pointed squarely at Seoul. Estimations runs up towards half a million shells landed in one single hour. No amount of counter-battery is going to make Seoul survive that unless America pulls out an Artillery Front out of its arse or just drops a thousand B61's as a first strike.

[Communist Xomaniax]

There isn't going to be an invasion of North Korea.

[The Realm of Lordaeron]

There isn't going to be an invasion of North Korea.

I'm going to keep this quote around for safekeeping just in case.

[Major-Tom]

Won't happen. North Korea is the weird smelling kid on the playground who occasionally throws shit.

Yeah, he's annoying, but you know if you try to stop him, he'll bite you or some shit.

[Gim]

South Korea will take all of the nuclear weapons from DPRK, once the latter is invaded.

[A Humanist Resurrection]

The only way the US could stop Seoul from getting blasted is to launch a massive nuclear first strike without warning.

Launching a cloud of nukes in the general direction of Russia and China without warning guarantees global thermonuclear war. Not only is Seoul blasted, but so are most other places. "Politically unacceptable" doesn't even start to capture it.

More generally speaking -- A lot of people seem to miss the fact that everyone in the region has an interest in a stable and continuing People's Democratic Republic. China wants it, since it's a buffer between it and the United States (via the Republic of Korea). The Republic of Korea wants it cause it continues to justify the presence of the United States, which checks China. Ditto for Japan. The United States wants it, because it justifies a continued US military foothold in Asia.

And the People's Democratic Republic knows this is all true, and uses regular saber rattling (especially right around US/Republic of Korea joint military exercise season) as a way to play the Capitalists and the Communists off each other so as to keep the food aid trucks rolling. It's a temper tantrum thing, and its kept the peace for more than 50 years. This means that most of the major global powers are directly complicit in maintaining a regime that basically enslaves tens of millions of people, but the hot war alternative means probably tens of millions of deaths almost immediately (Seoul first on the list) and probably hundreds more before its over.

[Novus America]

Also the threat is not solely, perhaps not even primarily nuclear. NK lacks delivery mechanisms and it is very likely it's nukes, if even usable could be taken out before they could be used.

But just as much threat comes from literally thousands of cannons shelling Seoul, liklely with chemical weapons as well as conventional shells.

And these being much greater in number are going to be much harder to take out or shoot down before the can be used.

Yup. Looking at 15,000 howitzers and mortars all pointed squarely at Seoul. Estimations runs up towards half a million shells landed in one single hour. No amount of counter-battery is going to make Seoul survive that unless America pulls out an Artillery Front out of its arse or just drops a thousand B61's as a first strike.

Yeah, you would have to nuke the shit out of their artillery positions by suprise, it could be done in theory, no matter how well dug in you are you are dead if the whole hill you are dug into becomes a radioactive crater.

But obviously launch a massive suprise nuclear attack not far from Russia and China, as well as Seoul is not going to be anything any US president would be willing to do.

[A Humanist Resurrection]

So intervention by the US is terrible but intervention by China is fully okay?

Well better China pay the price than us in all fairness.

China also has a direct interest in keeping the People's Democratic Republic under control, since it's ability to control the DPRK makes it the definitive regional power. And because a stable and continuing DPRK keeps the US/Republic of Korea off of it's own border.

North Korea is one of the very few exceptions when I'm talking about military intervention. No, seriously, US should set their boots there since China doesn't like them anymore...

China will like US boots in the DPRK even less. By, like, a lot. Please see above.

What they are going to do?

Besides annex the entire peninsula? Because...

With the current political administration in America, war with NK would go straight to nuclear confrontation and a rise in tensions with China.

...war with the DPRK would guarantee war with China. As soon as the US/Republic of Korea cross the demarcation line, the DPRK no longer functions as a protective buffer for China's border. Without this buffer, the only way to keep the US/Republic of Korea off China's border is to push the US/Republic of Korea completely off the peninsula.

Big, big mess.

...or just give all to South Korea.

This will not happen, since it means effectively giving the entire peninsula to the United States. China's past (and continuing) support for the DPRK is primarily aimed at NOT letting this happen.

Besides which, when the US/Republic of Korea cross the demarcation line, Seoul (and most of the RoK's population) disappears under a cloud of DPRK weapons of mass destruction. China cannot give anything to a country that no longer exists.