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by Neanderthaland » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:11 pm
by The Two Jerseys » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:19 pm
Neanderthaland wrote:I wonder what would happen if we applied Xero's logic to the Jewelry industry?
After all, the fact that I'm willing to pay a -let's be honest- excessive amount of money on a wedding band must mean that there is a massive demand for diamond rings out there.
by Galloism » Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:45 pm
The Two Jerseys wrote:Neanderthaland wrote:I wonder what would happen if we applied Xero's logic to the Jewelry industry?
After all, the fact that I'm willing to pay a -let's be honest- excessive amount of money on a wedding band must mean that there is a massive demand for diamond rings out there.
Gotta stop producing diamond saw blades and drill bits, the value signals will it!
by Xerographica » Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:02 pm
Grave_n_idle wrote:The biggest Patreon content provider at this point is a junky popular content channel called "Chapo trap House" that makes more than 50k a month through Patreon.
For comparison, the nearest 'informative' channel is CGP Grey, which makes 17k per month.
(A 'pure' informative channel is unlikely to net that much - "Metatron", for example (historical and translation content) makes about $335 per month - so, less than 1% of the pure 'entertainment' content).
Forsher wrote:You, I and everyone we know, knows Xero's threads are about one thing and one thing only.
by Galloism » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:23 pm
Xerographica wrote: Then you should have no problem giving those who do care about quality the option to directly allocate their taxes.
by Grave_n_idle » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:34 pm
Xerographica wrote:My system would give taxpayers the option to directly allocate their taxes. So by attacking my system you're defending the current system
Xerographica wrote:What have you argued? That popularity really doesn't mean quality.
Xerographica wrote:You can't have your cake and eat it too.
Xerographica wrote:If you want to argue that popularity doesn't equal quality, then you have to acknowledge that our representatives are poor quality. If, on the other hand, you want to argue that representatives are high quality, then you can't also argue that popularity doesn't equal quality.
Xerographica wrote:How would you categorize SMBC Comics? I think it's a pretty decent mix of entertainment and education.
Xerographica wrote:The point of taxation being compulsory is that the free-rider problem is a real problem.
Xerographica wrote:As far as free-riding goes... am I the rule or the exception? I'm pretty sure that I'm the rule.
Xerographica wrote:Again, you can't have your cake and eat it too.
Xerographica wrote:If you want to argue that 'popular nonsense' will win... then you have to acknowledge that our representatives, who are elected by popular vote, are nonsense. Then you should have no problem giving those who do care about quality the option to directly allocate their taxes.
by Xerographica » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:41 pm
Galloism wrote:Xerographica wrote: Then you should have no problem giving those who do care about quality the option to directly allocate their taxes.
Based on the Dunning Krueger effect, who is most likely to think they know best how to allocate "their" taxes - those most capable or the least capable of doing so?
Forsher wrote:You, I and everyone we know, knows Xero's threads are about one thing and one thing only.
by Grave_n_idle » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:43 pm
Xerographica wrote:I can certainly overestimate my competence as a painter. But if I take my paintings to the flea market... then it's going to be the shoppers who ultimately decide, with their own money, just how competent I truly am.
by Galloism » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:44 pm
by Xerographica » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:49 pm
Grave_n_idle wrote:Personally, I'm a big fan of sortition.
Forsher wrote:You, I and everyone we know, knows Xero's threads are about one thing and one thing only.
by Xerographica » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:52 pm
Forsher wrote:You, I and everyone we know, knows Xero's threads are about one thing and one thing only.
by Galloism » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:54 pm
by Galloism » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:05 am
Grave_n_idle wrote:
Personally, I'm a big fan of sortition.
by Xerographica » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:14 am
Galloism wrote:Xerographica wrote:Are you truly arguing that taxpayers somehow have a monopoly on the Dunning Krueger effect?
No, I'm asking what will happen with your system as you've described it. You seem intent on talking about it, so let's talk about it.
So based on this, who is more likely to think they know best how to allocate "their" taxes?
Those competent to do so, or those incompetent to do so?
Forsher wrote:You, I and everyone we know, knows Xero's threads are about one thing and one thing only.
by Neanderthaland » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:17 am
Xerographica wrote:Galloism wrote:No, I'm asking what will happen with your system as you've described it. You seem intent on talking about it, so let's talk about it.
So based on this, who is more likely to think they know best how to allocate "their" taxes?
Those competent to do so, or those incompetent to do so?
Right now congress has the "power of the purse". If taxpayers had the option to directly allocate their taxes... what percentage of the purse would be controlled by taxpayers? Let's pick a random number to work with... 50%. What percentage of this percent will be controlled by incompetent taxpayers? My guess is that it will be a pretty small percent... maybe 3%. But these incompetent taxpayers are going to be incompetently spending their own money in the public sector. At least they won't be incompetently spending other people's money.
But what, exactly, does it mean for 3% of the purse to be incompetently spent? However the incompetent taxpayers spent their tax dollars... the competent taxpayers would adjust their own spending accordingly. If the incompetent taxpayers don't spend enough money on public healthcare, the competent taxpayers can simply make up the difference. If the incompetent taxpayers spend too much money on the drug war, then competent taxpayers will simply spend their own tax dollars elsewhere.
In all cases the taxpayers are simply going to endeavor to fill the biggest gaps in the budget.
by Galloism » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:19 am
Xerographica wrote: If taxpayers had the option to directly allocate their taxes... what percentage of the purse would be controlled by taxpayers? Let's pick a random number to work with... 50%. What percentage of this percent will be controlled by incompetent taxpayers? My guess is that it will be a pretty small percent... maybe 3%.
by Xerographica » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:49 am
Galloism wrote:Xerographica wrote: If taxpayers had the option to directly allocate their taxes... what percentage of the purse would be controlled by taxpayers? Let's pick a random number to work with... 50%. What percentage of this percent will be controlled by incompetent taxpayers? My guess is that it will be a pretty small percent... maybe 3%.
Stop you right here. Why 3%?
What would the Dunning Kruger effect predict regarding whether those competent or incompetent would be more likely to try spending "their taxes" themselves?
Let's try it using the predictions of the Dunning Kruger effect instead.
Presuming 50% did this (unlikely in of itself), its very likely that the vast vast majority - 49% or more - will be spending incompetently. What would that do to the federal budget? What would it do to our society?
Forsher wrote:You, I and everyone we know, knows Xero's threads are about one thing and one thing only.
by Galloism » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:01 am
Xerographica wrote:Galloism wrote:Stop you right here. Why 3%?
What would the Dunning Kruger effect predict regarding whether those competent or incompetent would be more likely to try spending "their taxes" themselves?
Let's try it using the predictions of the Dunning Kruger effect instead.
Presuming 50% did this (unlikely in of itself), its very likely that the vast vast majority - 49% or more - will be spending incompetently. What would that do to the federal budget? What would it do to our society?
Consumers voluntarily give their money to producers. The more "dollar votes" that a producer receives, the more taxes that he has to pay.
Voters voluntarily give their votes to politicians. If a politician receives enough votes, then he can spend taxpayers' money.
Why, exactly, do you think that the Dunning Kruger effect is more prevalent among taxpayers than it is among politicians?
A follow-up study, reported in the same paper, suggests that grossly incompetent students improved their ability to estimate their rank after minimal tutoring in the skills they had previously lacked, regardless of the improvement gained in skills.
by Grave_n_idle » Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:03 pm
by Xerographica » Sun Mar 26, 2017 7:05 am
Grave_n_idle wrote:
Sortition doesn't require people to be equally competent. What it does do, however, is minimise the incentive to be corrupt - and that's a bigger problem.
As for 'schooling' you - you've yet to use the phrase 'free-rider' in a way that actually makes sense. (Much like your misuse of 'the invisible hand'). You claimed earlier in the thread that THIS is what you are good at. And yet you constantly misuse even the most basic terms. I'm not competent enough to school you.
Forsher wrote:You, I and everyone we know, knows Xero's threads are about one thing and one thing only.
by Xerographica » Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:48 pm
Galloism wrote:You're right that politicians are not immune from dunning Kruger. They just suffer illusory competence at lower rates, thanks to the effects of Dunning Kruger. Besides that, they have access to greater information and resources than the average joe. I'd be mighty generous to even think that 1% of Americans can allocate "their" tax dollars efficiently given the lack of relevant experience and information asymmetry.
Many who worked for Lampert describe him as brilliant. They add, though, that he can overestimate his own abilities. - Mina Kimes, At Sears, Eddie Lampert's Warring Divisions Model Adds to the Troubles
An outspoken advocate of free-market economics and fan of the novelist Ayn Rand, he created the model because he expected the invisible hand of the market to drive better results. If the company’s leaders were told to act selfishly, he argued, they would run their divisions in a rational manner, boosting overall performance.
Forsher wrote:You, I and everyone we know, knows Xero's threads are about one thing and one thing only.
by Galloism » Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:00 pm
Xerographica wrote:Galloism wrote:You're right that politicians are not immune from dunning Kruger. They just suffer illusory competence at lower rates, thanks to the effects of Dunning Kruger. Besides that, they have access to greater information and resources than the average joe. I'd be mighty generous to even think that 1% of Americans can allocate "their" tax dollars efficiently given the lack of relevant experience and information asymmetry.Many who worked for Lampert describe him as brilliant. They add, though, that he can overestimate his own abilities. - Mina Kimes, At Sears, Eddie Lampert's Warring Divisions Model Adds to the Troubles
In that same article...An outspoken advocate of free-market economics and fan of the novelist Ayn Rand, he created the model because he expected the invisible hand of the market to drive better results. If the company’s leaders were told to act selfishly, he argued, they would run their divisions in a rational manner, boosting overall performance.
Here's the e-mail that I just sent him...Greetings,
I just read the Bloomberg article and felt compelled to clarify the Invisible Hand. It's not primarily about self-interest... it's primarily about communication...
"It is thus that the private interests and passions of individuals naturally dispose them to turn their stocks towards the employments which in ordinary cases are most advantageous to the society. But if from this natural preference they should turn too much of it towards those employments, the fall of profit in them and the rise of it in all others immediately dispose them to alter this faulty distribution. Without any intervention of law, therefore, the private interests and passions of men naturally lead them to divide and distribute the stock of every society among all the different employments carried on in it as nearly as possible in the proportion which is most agreeable to the interest of the whole society." — Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations
Consumers use their cash to communicate what their interests are... and then self-interested producers make informed decisions. The benefit of this feedback loop depends on the accuracy of the communication.
I guess you probably get a gazillion e-mails a day. So I'd certainly be surprised if you even read this.
But if you are reading this, then imagine that next to the subject line on every e-mail there was a dollar amount that revealed how much the sender was willing to pay (WTP) you to read their e-mail. The more money that they were WTP, the more valuable they perceived their information to be.
People would prioritize how they spent their limited money in order to help you prioritize how you spent your limited time.
Let's say that I am WTP you $100 dollars to read this e-mail. For sure my WTP would provide additional information about the value of my e-mail. But what are the chances that $100 dollars accurately reflects the TRUE value of this e-mail? The true value of things can only be determined by markets.
So rather than your employees communicating by e-mail... imagine an internal system just like Reddit... but with voting replaced with spending. Employees would use their own money to bring the most valuable information to each other's attention. Posts could be filtered by date in order to see the most valuable information that's been shared in the past day, week, month, year or all time.
The point of the Invisible Hand is to make sure that truly valuable things aren't overlooked. Unfortunately, the point of the Invisible Hand has been overlooked because it hasn't been applied to information. It's a catch-22.
If you get a chance you should read my blog entry...
[Link removed for fear of being accused of promoting my blog]
The world would be an infinitely better place if nobody overlooked the point of the Invisible Hand. If you apply the point of the Invisible Hand to Sears, then for sure Sears will win. The least blind group will win.
Please let me know if you have any questions!
by Xerographica » Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:07 pm
Galloism wrote:Xerographica wrote:
In that same article...
Here's the e-mail that I just sent him...Greetings,
I just read the Bloomberg article and felt compelled to clarify the Invisible Hand. It's not primarily about self-interest... it's primarily about communication...
"It is thus that the private interests and passions of individuals naturally dispose them to turn their stocks towards the employments which in ordinary cases are most advantageous to the society. But if from this natural preference they should turn too much of it towards those employments, the fall of profit in them and the rise of it in all others immediately dispose them to alter this faulty distribution. Without any intervention of law, therefore, the private interests and passions of men naturally lead them to divide and distribute the stock of every society among all the different employments carried on in it as nearly as possible in the proportion which is most agreeable to the interest of the whole society." — Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations
Consumers use their cash to communicate what their interests are... and then self-interested producers make informed decisions. The benefit of this feedback loop depends on the accuracy of the communication.
I guess you probably get a gazillion e-mails a day. So I'd certainly be surprised if you even read this.
But if you are reading this, then imagine that next to the subject line on every e-mail there was a dollar amount that revealed how much the sender was willing to pay (WTP) you to read their e-mail. The more money that they were WTP, the more valuable they perceived their information to be.
People would prioritize how they spent their limited money in order to help you prioritize how you spent your limited time.
Let's say that I am WTP you $100 dollars to read this e-mail. For sure my WTP would provide additional information about the value of my e-mail. But what are the chances that $100 dollars accurately reflects the TRUE value of this e-mail? The true value of things can only be determined by markets.
So rather than your employees communicating by e-mail... imagine an internal system just like Reddit... but with voting replaced with spending. Employees would use their own money to bring the most valuable information to each other's attention. Posts could be filtered by date in order to see the most valuable information that's been shared in the past day, week, month, year or all time.
The point of the Invisible Hand is to make sure that truly valuable things aren't overlooked. Unfortunately, the point of the Invisible Hand has been overlooked because it hasn't been applied to information. It's a catch-22.
If you get a chance you should read my blog entry...
[Link removed for fear of being accused of promoting my blog]
The world would be an infinitely better place if nobody overlooked the point of the Invisible Hand. If you apply the point of the Invisible Hand to Sears, then for sure Sears will win. The least blind group will win.
Please let me know if you have any questions!
I've never met the man, but I'm sure he can use a good laugh as much as anyone else, I guess.
Forsher wrote:You, I and everyone we know, knows Xero's threads are about one thing and one thing only.
by Galloism » Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:11 pm
by Neanderthaland » Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:12 pm
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