China Bans North Korean Coal

[Neanderthaland]

There is no one who supports their policy, and their leader is a crazy person who threatens to nuke their neigbours and the US. And Cuba can't help, especially with Castro's dead

Pssst. He was talking about Trump.

Never change.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Well, real monarchies. Obviously nations like Britain and Japan which are basically just republics with a crown try to keep up with the times,but say, Saudi Arabia, or yes, the older medieval monarchies

Do you mean Saudi Arabia because they behead and stone people?

And to prevent this thread from derailing, how does North Korea gain uranium from the money they get from coal trade? Did they buy it from African dictatorships?

And the crucifixions. Can't forget those.
As for uranium, North Korea actually has large deposits from my understanding

[Ostroeuropa]

Does anyone think there will be war if North Korea gets desperate?

[Populi-Terrae]

He shouldn't also killed his enemies in horrifying ways, such as burning them with flamethrowers, making the dogs tasted human meat, or ripping the victim to shred with AA gun

Well it is a monarchy. They live for interesting execution methods.

Interesting is one thing. Savage on the scale of Game of Thrones or the Mongols is quite another.

[The Federation of Kendor]

Pssst. He was talking about Trump.

Never change.

What do you mean?

[Internationalist Bastard]

Well it is a monarchy. They live for interesting execution methods.

Interesting is one thing. Savage on the scale of Game of Thrones or the Mongols is quite another.

Hey we weren't savage, just.....excessive

[Valaran]

I'm somewhat sceptical. China has a surplus of coal (but doesn't want to close coal factories or curb domestic production, for fear of aggravating an already restless rust belt), and this seems like a neat way to satisfy economic concerns while presenting it as a political move. Its political dealings with the state are also more nuanced and complex than the irritation axis presented in the west. It would be dangerous for China to actually restrict coal, since it is wary of losing further influence in NK (Kim's nukes are as much a deterrent for Beijing as they are for the US). Thus, while it may be increasingly frustrated, it is also cautious when dealing with NK.

Moreover, China has a pernicious habit of 'banning' North Korean products and then tacitly un-interrupting the flow of border trade. After all, to quote Ostro's Source:

The Commerce Ministry said the move was China fulfilling its obligation to implement last November’s UN Security Council resolution to impose further economic sanctions on Pyongyang after it detonated its fifth nuclear test of 2016.

Yet this sanction was deliberately ignored for much of 2016. To reference a reuters article from September:

Tougher measures were imposed by the United Nations in March [...] China said at the time it would ban imports of gold and rare earths, as well as coal.

While coal imports from North Korea did slip in April to 1.527 million tonnes from March's 2.345 million, they have been steadily trending higher since then to reach August's record.

(I know its also referenced in Ostro's source, but I think its expressed clearly here)

So, while this is being presented as some tougher measures, China had actually been heavily delaying something it had already said it agreed to nearly a year ago. I reckon that the timing is significant - China is possibly threatening Kim, and will ignore/downplay this restriction once NK gets the message. But that message will be to respect China, rather than to agree to western demands. The North Korean regime has clearly committed to nuclearisation as its key to survival, and it won't reassess that strategy. It might now refrain from being as overly provocative, but the real problem of missile development will likely continue unabated.

[Serkia]

Shame on China for doing this, betraying the DPRK like this shows that they're nothing but a revisionist state.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Does anyone think there will be war if North Korea gets desperate?

Of course. Wars inevitable with NK. They've been failing for years pouring everything into their army. Eventually they'll either collapse into Civil War (can a side in an ongoing civil war fall into civil war) and the South will move in, or NK will make a desperate push to get a better position.

[The Federation of Kendor]

I'm somewhat sceptical. China has a surplus of coal (but doesn't want to close coal factories or curb domestic production, for fear of aggravating an already restless rust belt), and this seems like a neat way to satisfy economic concerns while presenting it as a political move. Its political dealings with the state are also more nuanced and complex than the irritation axis presented in the west. It would be dangerous for China to actually restrict coal, since it is wary of losing further influence in NK (Kim's nukes are as much a deterrent for Beijing as they are for the US). Thus, while it may be increasingly frustrated, it is also cautious when dealing with NK.

Moreover, China has a pernicious habit of 'banning' North Korean products and then tacitly un-interrupting the flow of border trade. After all, to quote Ostro's Source:

The Commerce Ministry said the move was China fulfilling its obligation to implement last November’s UN Security Council resolution to impose further economic sanctions on Pyongyang after it detonated its fifth nuclear test of 2016.

Yet this sanction was deliberately ignored for much of 2016. To reference a reuters article from September:

Tougher measures were imposed by the United Nations in March [...] China said at the time it would ban imports of gold and rare earths, as well as coal.

While coal imports from North Korea did slip in April to 1.527 million tonnes from March's 2.345 million, they have been steadily trending higher since then to reach August's record.

(I know its also referenced in Ostro's source, but I think its expressed clearly here)

So, while this is being presented as some tougher measures, China had actually been heavily delaying something it had already said it agreed to nearly a year ago. I reckon that the timing is significant - China is possibly threatening Kim, and will ignore/downplay this restriction once NK gets the message. But that message will be to respect China, rather than to agree to western demands. The North Korean regime has clearly committed to nuclearisation as its key to survival, and it won't reassess that strategy. It might now refrain from being as overly provocative, but the real problem of missile development will likely continue unabated.

Then how about the defectors, as China deports North Korea's defectors if caught, giving the defectors a worse fate

Shame on China for doing this, betraying the DPRK like this shows that they're nothing but a revisionist state.

Because China is still holding to some of it's communist roots and practiced espionage on the US, right?

[Uxupox]

Does anyone think there will be war if North Korea gets desperate?

Of course. Wars inevitable with NK. They've been failing for years pouring everything into their army. Eventually they'll either collapse into Civil War (can a side in an ongoing civil war fall into civil war) and the South will move in, or NK will make a desperate push to get a better position.

Most likely civil war since it is highly unlikely that they will do any sort of attack against South Korea when the Chinese are strangling them.

[Ostroeuropa]

Does anyone think there will be war if North Korea gets desperate?

Of course. Wars inevitable with NK. They've been failing for years pouring everything into their army. Eventually they'll either collapse into Civil War (can a side in an ongoing civil war fall into civil war) and the South will move in, or NK will make a desperate push to get a better position.

I dunno. I think that's all pretty likely, but i'm holding out hope for a relatively peaceful resolution where they just kind of give up.

[The Federation of Kendor]

Does anyone think there will be war if North Korea gets desperate?

Of course. Wars inevitable with NK. They've been failing for years pouring everything into their army. Eventually they'll either collapse into Civil War (can a side in an ongoing civil war fall into civil war) and the South will move in, or NK will make a desperate push to get a better position.

If North Korea do collapse, probably it will be like the revolution on Romania, but North Korea manage to resist that by fear tactic on their citizen and strict measures, that rebellion is very difficult for their populace

[Populi-Terrae]

Interesting is one thing. Savage on the scale of Game of Thrones or the Mongols is quite another.

Hey we weren't savage, just.....excessive

You're Mongolian, aren't you?

[Uxupox]

Of course. Wars inevitable with NK. They've been failing for years pouring everything into their army. Eventually they'll either collapse into Civil War (can a side in an ongoing civil war fall into civil war) and the South will move in, or NK will make a desperate push to get a better position.

If North Korea do collapse, probably it will be like the revolution on Romania, but North Korea manage to resist that by fear tactic on their citizen and strict measures, that rebellion is very difficult for their populace

It's not going to be a revolution when the population worships you like a deity.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Of course. Wars inevitable with NK. They've been failing for years pouring everything into their army. Eventually they'll either collapse into Civil War (can a side in an ongoing civil war fall into civil war) and the South will move in, or NK will make a desperate push to get a better position.

Most likely civil war since it is highly unlikely that they will do any sort of attack against South Korea when the Chinese are strangling them.

I never said it's be likely to succeed, but they could just make a shitty suicide rush and pray for the best. You can't really know with a country that has nothing to lose

[Serkia]

Shame on China for doing this, betraying the DPRK like this shows that they're nothing but a revisionist state.

Because China is still holding to some of it's communist roots and practiced espionage on the US, right?

China is not communist and hasn't been since Mao died.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Hey we weren't savage, just.....excessive

You're Mongolian, aren't you?

By culture and marriage yes

[Valaran]

Does anyone think there will be war if North Korea gets desperate?

I think that if there is real desperation, there will be more provocations, like shelling islands and something. Nothing that would directly cause war or indeed anything but limited retaliation. Even a cycle of escalation seems unlikely, since NK (and SK) would fear what that might lead to - even a desperate NK has no incentive to actually fight.

Obviously there would then be the possibility of an accident or miscalculation setting things off, but I think the real question would hang over whether China might launch a palace coup in NK (I don't think it would, but its the most likely of unlikely events), and then whether this coup would succeed, or be botched.

[Ostroeuropa]

Of course. Wars inevitable with NK. They've been failing for years pouring everything into their army. Eventually they'll either collapse into Civil War (can a side in an ongoing civil war fall into civil war) and the South will move in, or NK will make a desperate push to get a better position.

Most likely civil war since it is highly unlikely that they will do any sort of attack against South Korea when the Chinese are strangling them.

See this is the kind of time i'd expect them to do it.

If you present them with the same options we see for them:

Civil war
War with south
Give up

I'd wager there will be many who want war with the south. It would prevent a civil war for a bit, and giving up might not be an option they are willing to consider.

Most likely civil war since it is highly unlikely that they will do any sort of attack against South Korea when the Chinese are strangling them.

I never said it's be likely to succeed, but they could just make a shitty suicide rush and pray for the best. You can't really know with a country that has nothing to lose

This.

[Populi-Terrae]

You're Mongolian, aren't you?

By culture and marriage yes

Well, I don't think 'excessive' can properly describe burning entire cities, using biological warfare and slaughtering prisoners.

[Uxupox]

Most likely civil war since it is highly unlikely that they will do any sort of attack against South Korea when the Chinese are strangling them.

See this is the kind of time i'd expect them to do it.

If you present them with the same options we see for them:

Civil war
War with south
Give up

I'd wager there will be many who want war with the south. It would prevent a civil war for a bit, and giving up might not be an option they are willing to consider.

this fattie is not going to give up any time soon.

[Peta Kozarska Brigada]

It's likely no more than a token, symbolic act to comply with public outrage. We still need to keep that buffer tho

[The Federation of Kendor]

Because China is still holding to some of it's communist roots and practiced espionage on the US, right?

China is not communist and hasn't been since Mao died.

If you aren't aware, Deng Xiaoping, Mao' successor, didn't change China into a totally capitalist democracy because of his philosophy that both ideology can coexist peacefully. China is still authoritarian, as it's one party and all other party is banned, and it do have some communist remnants, like some of their laws

If North Korea do collapse, probably it will be like the revolution on Romania, but North Korea manage to resist that by fear tactic on their citizen and strict measures, that rebellion is very difficult for their populace

It's not going to be a revolution when the population worships you like a deity.

So when will North Korea falls?

[Dytarma]

Shame on China for doing this, betraying the DPRK like this shows that they're nothing but a revisionist state.

Or the DPRK is a nutjob. Either way, (though this is probably the only time an American will ever say this.) Great job China!