Trump MAGAThread IV: Twixt Scylla & Some Bad Hombres

[Gravlen]

Because the fact WikiLeaks published stuff that totally didn't come from the FSB honest every single time she started leading the polls isn't interference?

What kind of polls are you talking about? According to all of so-called "polls" in the USA during the elections, Hillary Clinton was winning constantly with at least 90% of votes, so she was leading at absolutely all times. Also, do you really think that the Russian government, which has so many spies and intelligence and resources, is going to base their plans mainly on "polls" done by the Huffington Post and CNN?

Please don't lie about the basic stuff. It's easy to look up, too easy in fact.

[Gravlen]

Luke Harding sure did when he published his stories about Snowden, so going by his history...


Ockham's razor.

Occam's razor (or Ockham's razor) is a principle from philosophy. Suppose there exist two explanations for an occurrence. In this case, the simpler one is usually better. Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation is.

Note the use of the word "likely". The use of the razor analogy often traps the lazy and unimaginative.

I'm saying it's not more likely.

[Gravlen]

For what? Do you need links to the news stories about the DNC leaks?

On public opinion being influenced to any significant degree. Hillary was already unlikable.

The question is, did it have an impact on Hillary's electoral numbers? That we don't know for sure, but it's likely a factor.

[Kravanica]

On public opinion being influenced to any significant degree. Hillary was already unlikable.

The question is, did it have an impact on Hillary's electoral numbers? That we don't know for sure, but it's likely a factor.

Until any evidence arises all speculation is meaningless. It's quite possible her demise was the fault of her and her campaign staff.

[Seangoli]

Because the fact WikiLeaks published stuff that totally didn't come from the FSB honest every single time she started leading the polls isn't interference?

What kind of polls are you talking about? According to all of so-called "polls" in the USA during the elections, Hillary Clinton was winning constantly with at least 90% of votes, so she was leading at absolutely all times. Also, do you really think that the Russian government, which has so many spies and intelligence and resources, is going to base their plans mainly on "polls" done by the Huffington Post and CNN?

The problem with the polling last year was not with the polls themselves. The numbers were all pretty close to the end result, and many if not most of the final result were well within the margin of error of the polls. Rather, it was the analysts of the polls that fucked up, ignoring the margin of error and overstating Clinton's lead.

[IceBuddha]

Trump's losing his shit over on Twitter. He put out a nice string of unhinged tweets lashing out against the media, the intelligence community, and leakers.

He didn't seem to care about leaks too much when he was calling for the Russian government to release information about his political opponents. Now that the shoe is on the other foot, he's all for secrecy, of course.

[Gravlen]

Trump's losing his shit over on Twitter. He put out a nice string of unhinged tweets lashing out against the media, the intelligence community, and leakers.

He didn't seem to care about leaks too much when he was calling for the Russian government to release information about his political opponents. Now that the shoe's on the other foot, he's all for secrecy, of course.

Are we heading for TwitCon 2? Jeebus!

Why does he think it's a wise decision to attack the intelligence community again?

[Seangoli]

Trump's losing his shit over on Twitter. He put out a nice string of unhinged tweets lashing out against the media, the intelligence community, and leakers.

He didn't seem to care about leaks too much when he was calling for the Russian government to release information about his political opponents. Now that the shoe's on the other foot, he's all for secrecy, of course.

Interesting to note is that he's not even denying the allegations, but rather decrying the leaks themselves.

That said, it's also probably a bad idea to piss them off even further than he already has. Just saying that these people's careers are to find information on people.

[Gauthier]

On public opinion being influenced to any significant degree. Hillary was already unlikable.

The question is, did it have an impact on Hillary's electoral numbers? That we don't know for sure, but it's likely a factor.

Clinton was doing relatively well even after the hacks until Comey played kingnaker with Weinermail.

[Ashmoria]

Trump's losing his shit over on Twitter. He put out a nice string of unhinged tweets lashing out against the media, the intelligence community, and leakers.

He didn't seem to care about leaks too much when he was calling for the Russian government to release information about his political opponents. Now that the shoe's on the other foot, he's all for secrecy, of course.

Interesting to note is that he's not even denying the allegations, but rather decrying the leaks themselves.

That said, it's also probably a bad idea to piss them off even further than he already has. Just saying that these people's careers are to find information on people.

yeah it turns out the bad thing is us KNOWING that his staff were colluding with Russians. the collusion itself was FINE--he did nothing about it when they told him weeks ago.

[Bakery Hill]

Clinton was doing relatively well even after the hacks until Comey played kingnaker with Weinermail.

Clinton was going to win, Brexit wasn't going to happen, maybe something's wrong with the polls?

[Seangoli]

Clinton was doing relatively well even after the hacks until Comey played kingnaker with Weinermail.

Clinton was going to win, Brexit wasn't going to happen, maybe something's wrong with the polls?

As I have said repeatedly, the polls on the election were all quite accurate at the end of the campaign run. Almost ever final result in the states lined up within the margin of error for the polls that were conducted late in the game. The problem was that the analysts overstated her lead and understated, significantly, Trump's chances. The numbers were fine, the people opining on them were not.

As for this, people need to get their head out of their asses if they think that Trump won by any significant margin. He won by the narrowest of margins in Michigan, with only 11,000 more votes than Clinton. In Wisconsin he won by a meagre 20,000 votes. Pensylvannia was only about 45,000 votes in his favor. These all are excessively narrow margins, and all of the results fall square within the margin of error in the polls.

It is quite likely that Comey's last-minute announcement signifcantly swayed a good chunk of voters to vote for someone who was not hillary. Perhaps not Trump, but given that Michigan had 230,000 people vote 3rd party (Up 200,000 from 2012), Wisconsin had 140,000 people go 3rd party (Up 100,000 from 2012), and Pennsylvannia had 190,000 people go third party (Up 120,000 from 2012), I would say that yes, Comey's actions caused a huge dent in her possibilities by driving people to vote for the complete lunatic that was Jill Stein or the utter nutball that was Gary Johnson.

[Salandriagado]

You don't think that's the game plan?

1. The FBI scuttles Hillary Clinton's campaign by pretending it's found "new" classified e-mails on Anthony Wiener's laptop, and then angering Trump voters into surging to the polls by "clearing" her just before the election, leading to renewed charges of a "coverup".
   
   
2. The FBI unearths evidence it's been sitting on since last summer that Donald Trump is in the Kremlin's pocket and has been for a very long time, and that the Trump campaign collaborated with the Russians in their efforts to influence the election to put a "Manchurian President" into the White House, either forcing Trump to resign or giving Congress an excuse to impeach and remove him.
   
   
3. Mike Pence becomes President, and nominates Paul Ryan as his new VP. The Republicans now have the Administration they always wanted, but one that they could have never managed to get elected had it run straight up in 2016.

Seems like Jim Comey is playing his role as kingmaker perfectly.

4. Mike Pence is assassinated/implicated in something gay and resigns/other and Paul Ryan becomes President.

Nah, you've got to wait 2 years for that, so that you can get 2.5 terms of Ryan.

[Bakery Hill]

Clinton was going to win, Brexit wasn't going to happen, maybe something's wrong with the polls?

As I have said repeatedly, the polls on the election were all quite accurate at the end of the campaign run. Almost ever final result in the states lined up within the margin of error for the polls that were conducted late in the game. The problem was that the analysts overstated her lead and understated, significantly, Trump's chances. The numbers were fine, the people opining on them were not.

As for this, people need to get their head out of their asses if they think that Trump won by any significant margin. He won by the narrowest of margins in Michigan, with only 11,000 more votes than Clinton. In Wisconsin he won by a meagre 20,000 votes. Pensylvannia was only about 45,000 votes in his favor. These all are excessively narrow margins, and all of the results fall square within the margin of error in the polls.

It is quite likely that Comey's last-minute announcement signifcantly swayed a good chunk of voters to vote for someone who was not hillary. Perhaps not Trump, but given that Michigan had 230,000 people vote 3rd party (Up 200,000 from 2012), Wisconsin had 140,000 people go 3rd party (Up 100,000 from 2012), and Pennsylvannia had 190,000 people go third party (Up 120,000 from 2012), I would say that yes, Comey's actions caused a huge dent in her possibilities by driving people to vote for the complete lunatic that was Jill Stein or the utter nutball that was Gary Johnson.

Wisconsin was Democrat since the 80s. Hillary thought it was so safe she didn't even want to visit it. None of these marginal wins by Trump were considered nearly possible. She misjudged the Rust Belt completely, she thought towns that went Democrat 60%+ for Obama both times would go her way again because they were naturally Democrat or some shit. Nope, all it took was an economic populist.

[Lilinia]

Not a big fan of transparency and accountability, are ya?

I don't think leaks are inherently good.

You seem to be coming from a position that they are inherently bad, though.

If that's the case, what's your argument to support that position?

If not, care to clarify? Maybe with some nuance?

[Gauthier]

Not a big fan of transparency and accountability, are ya?

I don't think leaks are inherently good.

Unless they reveal something about the Democrats right?

[WhatsamattaU]

I don't think leaks are inherently good.

Unless they reveal something about the Democrats whichever side that I'm opposed to, right?

Corrected.

[Thermodolia]

We can now add Israel to the list of pissed off allies Trump: Netanyahu should 'hold back' on settlements
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/15/politics/ ... index.html

[Gauthier]

We can now add Israel to the list of pissed off allies Trump: Netanyahu should 'hold back' on settlements
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/15/politics/ ... index.html

Netanyahu will just ignore it without a word and continue to push Palestinians off lands because Moar Settlements.

[Thermodolia]

We can now add Israel to the list of pissed off allies Trump: Netanyahu should 'hold back' on settlements
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/15/politics/ ... index.html

Netanyahu will just ignore it without a word and continue to push Palestinians off lands because Moar Settlements.

Though it does show what Trump really thinks of Israel

[Seangoli]

We can now add Israel to the list of pissed off allies Trump: Netanyahu should 'hold back' on settlements
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/15/politics/ ... index.html

At least this one is something I can actually support. Pissing off Netanyahu is the silver lining on his presidency so far.

[Tekeristan]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... ationwide/
Thoughts?

[Seangoli]

Netanyahu will just ignore it without a word and continue to push Palestinians off lands because Moar Settlements.

Though it does show what Trump really thinks of Israel

That he is a blow hard and con man who said literally everything and anything just to get elected, regardless of whether or not he actually supported it or was going to support it?

Sure, I could have told you that. In fact, I think I told a lot of people that during the actual election.

[Austrasien]

We can now add Israel to the list of pissed off allies Trump: Netanyahu should 'hold back' on settlements
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/15/politics/ ... index.html

Trump pissed off Israel by restating what has essentially been US policy for decades?

[Thermodolia]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/23/wisconsins-gerrymander-being-struck-down-should-scare-republicans-nationwide/
Thoughts?

I hope it holds up in appeals