Now that Prime Minister Bill English has confirmed the date for this year's general election, campaigning is soon to begin. And this year should be interesting.
First off, we have National aiming to secure a fourth term in power, which is unprecedented in the era of MMP politics as Helen Clark and Labour only managed three terms before being voted out in 2008. Despite the resignation of the very popular John Key and Bill English's less than stellar leadership record (he had previously led National to one of its worst ever defeats in the 2002 general election), support for National remains high, with the latest Roy Morgan poll showing National with a comfortable support base of 46%. However, National has been criticized recently for its handling of the housing affordability crisis, with Auckland ranked as one of the most unaffordable housing markets in the world as well as questions regarding New Zealand's immigration policies and handling of foreign property buyers. English himself has also been questioned for his perceived "lack of leadership" regarding his lukewarm response to President Trump's immigration policies and not wishing to attend Waitangi this year.
Looking to change the status quo is Labour who have been struggling with leadership issues after the departure of Helen Clark following her defeat at the 2008 general election. Currently Labour is polling at 27%, down 1.5% from December 2016. Current leader Andrew Little is looking to turn around the three straight losses to National but with polls over the last two years showing two occasions where polling managed to break 30%, he is going to face a tough challenge ahead of him. Joining him in an unofficial coalition are then Green Party who have been increasing in support for a while now and are quickly becoming a good alternative to Labour, who have largely moved away from the centre-left era under Helen Clark and are moving back to its traditional role as a left-wing party, catering to traditional Labour voters, many of whom can be surprisingly conservative with their views on immigration. This was on show last year when Little claimed to have a list of house buyers with "Chinese sounding names".
New Zealand First has been seeing an unsurprising increase in support regarding the talk of housing affordability and immigration. Although the party has 9% support, it is enough support to put party leader Winston Peters into the role of kingmaker, something which he hasn't done in just over two decades. And the last time he was in this position, he went fishing for two weeks before he decided on a coalition. Expect him to drive home immigration restriction policies, something which could split the left-wing vote.
With regards to the minor parties, I don't expect much to change. United Future and the ACT Party are going to remain as strategic safe seats for National in the form of the current coalition and the Maori Party will also remain coalition partners. One minor party to look out for is The Opportunities Party currently lead by philanthropist Gareth Morgan who is seeking to change the government and launch a number of original and interesting policies, such as a levy on tourists entering New Zealand and a push for the creation of a written constitution. Kim Dotcom is also looking to come back and try to go for Parliament again. However, to do this he needs citizenship and given he was placed under investigation by police and arrested, it's very unlikely he will actually be able to run in this election.
I will also give a brief summary of the current parties:
National: Roughly left of the Democrats in the United States and analogous with the Conservatives in the United Kingdom.
Labour: Generic center-left to left-wing party analogous with Labour in the United Kingdom and Labor in Australia.
Greens: Broadly left-wing environmentalist party that has abandoned most of its anti-science hippy politicians and is probably the most sane and most mature of its kind in the Anglosphere.
New Zealand First: Broadly nationalistic party that is very conservative on immigration and Maori issues.
ACT: Somewhat vaguely libertarian right wing party that is pro- free market.
United Future: Centrist party that is only really known as being a one man show run by Peter Dunne.
Maori Party: Special interest party to represent Maori interests in Parliament.
And here is a cherry picked list of the websites for political parties for further investigation:
National
Labour
Greens
New Zealand First
ACT
United Future
Maori
Opportunities
And for a list of political parties that I haven't mentioned, see this Wikipedia link.
So Kiwis and non-Kiwis of NSG, which party do you support? If you are able to vote here, who will you vote for? If not, who would you vote for if you could? Personally as someone who has voted for National in the last two elections, I am currently on the fence about supporting National again. I have considered the Greens as they have decent policies (save for their continued anti-scientific stance on GMO's).
That. Is. AWESOME!
