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Russia; will they make a big move in Eastern Europe?

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Shofercia
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Posts: 31342
Founded: Feb 22, 2008
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Shofercia » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:32 pm

Neoliberia wrote:
Shofercia wrote:(Image)

But remember guys, when a country's massively increasing military expenditure after a failed attack in 2004, they're not really preparing for war, they're just preparing for an ice cream party according to Neoliberia. Let's recap:

1. The regions of Adjaria, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia were semi-independent after the collapse of the USSR
2. Georgia back in the 1990s, started a war with Abkhazia and later, South Ossetia, and lost, badly
3. Shevardnadze froze the conflict; part of the deal included Russian Peacekeeping Bases
4. Saakashvili, back in 2003, overthrew Shevardnadze, partly due to a nationalist platform of reclaiming Abkhazia and South Ossetia
5. In 2004, after Saakashvili's fiery rhetoric, there was the biggest engagement seen in South Ossetia, since the 1990s
6. Saakashvili massively increased military expenditure
7. On August 7th, on the eve of the Chinese Olympics, Saakashvili invades South Ossetia

Newland's conclusion: It's all Rusha faultz!

Considering how important the relationship with China is to Russia, why the fuck would the Russians start a war on the eve of the Chinese Olympics?

The only thing Putin apologists can bring up is that budget. Being on the border with Russia requires you have an adequate military. Saakashvili thought he could turn Georgia into a "Caucasian Israel" that clearly didn't work but lets actually move on to the substance.


First, that's not the only thing; you are welcome to study his campaign agenda. Second, no matter how much you bitch, whine, and moan about Putin Apologists or whatever crap that's been made up to attack the poster instead of the post this week, one's military budget is a good indication of preparation for war or lack thereof. Third, saying that you need an Israeli style military against Russia is asinine, because, military speaking, the Russians can steamroll most of the former SSR countries, and the two exceptions are both quite friendly towards Russia. That's like demanding that Canada should invest into the mounty brigades after Trump's election.


Neoliberia wrote:Now your timeline is mostly accurate, though I'd like to point to a few clear misrepresentations. You say Saakashvili was brought to power with a fiery nationalist platform. Well:
A Transcript Of Misha's Inauguration Speech wrote:Georgia is home not only for all Georgians, but also for all ethnic minorities, residing in Georgia. Every citizen, who considers Georgia as its homeland, be they Russian, Abkhasian, Osetian, Azerbaijanian, Armenian, Jewish, Greek, Ukrainian, Kurd - is our greatest wealth and treasure.

Very nationalist.


I'm not sure if you know what a Nationalist is, but a Nationalist need not be a racist.


Neoliberia wrote:Russia rehearsed an invasion of South Ossetia (Kavkaz 2008) just a few days before the war broke out, and left an army on high alert and on the border. Suspicious much? They also sent railway troops into Abkhazia (without permission) to repair infrastructure which became important for the coming invasion, and didn't turn up to a scheduled meeting between the three sides in Tskhinvali. All of this is in the Tagliavini Report for you to look at if you wish.


You mean the Russian Military trained for a possible scenario that occurred within a month. I think that's known as being prepared, rather than a clear indication of aggression. Here's the thing: if I wanted to retake Ossetia, I probably wouldn't have held exercises so close to the border, naming them Kavkaz 2008. And there was nothing to retake - South Ossetia was de facto partners with North Ossetia, an integral part of Russia. Kavkaz 2008 was held as a deterrent to hotheaded Saakashvili, i.e. "if you do this, here's what will happen!" Abkhazia didn't actually play a major role in the Ossetian War, although people fixing roads in Russia is always suspicious. Oh wait, you were talking about railroards. Yeah, ok, Russians fixing railroads, that's good, railroads are quite good in Russia, for the most part. Using the Russians in Abkhazia to meet up in Tskhinval(i) is hilarious for anyone who actually knows the geography of the region. Russians have generally been on high alert in the Caucasus. This is nothing new. What's next, you complaining about Americans being on high alert around Ciudad Juarez?


Neoliberia wrote:As for China I don't get the relevance. Russia's relationship with China was not damaged by the war. But apparently they came to an understanding on the matter earlier, as Putin himself said (now it is in Russian but google translate is a thing).


The relationship wasn't damaged because the Chinese figured out who started the war. Had the Russians actually started the war, the relationship would've been damaged.
Last edited by Shofercia on Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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NeoLiberia
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Founded: Jan 11, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby NeoLiberia » Wed Feb 01, 2017 2:19 pm

Shofercia wrote:First, that's not the only thing; you are welcome to study his campaign agenda. Second, no matter how much you bitch, whine, and moan about Putin Apologists or whatever crap that's been made up to attack the poster instead of the post this week, one's military budget is a good indication of preparation for war or lack thereof. Third, saying that you need an Israeli style military against Russia is asinine, because, military speaking, the Russians can steamroll most of the former SSR countries, and the two exceptions are both quite friendly towards Russia. That's like demanding that Canada should invest into the mounty brigades after Trump's election.

So according to your reasoning: Saakashvili knew he couldn't defend against Russia, therefore he threw money at his military in order to attack a Russian client....

Shofercia wrote:You mean the Russian Military trained for a possible scenario that occurred within a month. I think that's known as being prepared, rather than a clear indication of aggression. Here's the thing: if I wanted to retake Ossetia, I probably wouldn't have held exercises so close to the border, naming them Kavkaz 2008. And there was nothing to retake - South Ossetia was de facto partners with North Ossetia, an integral part of Russia. Kavkaz 2008 was held as a deterrent to hotheaded Saakashvili, i.e. "if you do this, here's what will happen!" Abkhazia didn't actually play a major role in the Ossetian War, although people fixing roads in Russia is always suspicious. Oh wait, you were talking about railroards. Yeah, ok, Russians fixing railroads, that's good, railroads are quite good in Russia, for the most part. Using the Russians in Abkhazia to meet up in Tskhinval(i) is hilarious for anyone who actually knows the geography of the region. Russians have generally been on high alert in the Caucasus. This is nothing new. What's next, you complaining about Americans being on high alert around Ciudad Juarez?

The normal response to a thawing conflict on your border would be de-escalation through diplomacy, not preparation for war. Russia had many options, they could have participated in talks or halted the initial shelling which started the conflict. They had full control over whether or not the Ossetian militias continued to shell or not. It's a joke to suggest otherwise, given all the leverage they had over South Ossetia. The only coherent explanation for Russia's actions is that Medvedev & friends acted with malevolent intent.

I don't think you realize that this railroad was neither: located in Russia, nor in use. There was no purpose in it being functional other than for the invasion. Abkhazia did play a role, it was one of the two regions through which Russian forces entered.

Shofercia wrote:The relationship wasn't damaged because the Chinese figured out who started the war. Had the Russians actually started the war, the relationship would've been damaged.

China did not care about the conflict.

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Shofercia
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Posts: 31342
Founded: Feb 22, 2008
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Shofercia » Sat Feb 04, 2017 6:25 pm

Neoliberia wrote:
Shofercia wrote:First, that's not the only thing; you are welcome to study his campaign agenda. Second, no matter how much you bitch, whine, and moan about Putin Apologists or whatever crap that's been made up to attack the poster instead of the post this week, one's military budget is a good indication of preparation for war or lack thereof. Third, saying that you need an Israeli style military against Russia is asinine, because, military speaking, the Russians can steamroll most of the former SSR countries, and the two exceptions are both quite friendly towards Russia. That's like demanding that Canada should invest into the mounty brigades after Trump's election.

So according to your reasoning: Saakashvili knew he couldn't defend against Russia, therefore he threw money at his military in order to attack a Russian client....


Saakashvili thought that if he was able to blow up the Roki Tunnel, then his military could capture South Ossetia and use international pressure to force Russia to stop the counter attack. Post Soviet kleptocrats who "discovered Democracy" in order to get loot, erm, funding from the US taxpayers, aren't known for their intelligence. Shortly after Trump's election, do you remember what Saakashvili said?


Neoliberia wrote:
Shofercia wrote:You mean the Russian Military trained for a possible scenario that occurred within a month. I think that's known as being prepared, rather than a clear indication of aggression. Here's the thing: if I wanted to retake Ossetia, I probably wouldn't have held exercises so close to the border, naming them Kavkaz 2008. And there was nothing to retake - South Ossetia was de facto partners with North Ossetia, an integral part of Russia. Kavkaz 2008 was held as a deterrent to hotheaded Saakashvili, i.e. "if you do this, here's what will happen!" Abkhazia didn't actually play a major role in the Ossetian War, although people fixing roads in Russia is always suspicious. Oh wait, you were talking about railroards. Yeah, ok, Russians fixing railroads, that's good, railroads are quite good in Russia, for the most part. Using the Russians in Abkhazia to meet up in Tskhinval(i) is hilarious for anyone who actually knows the geography of the region. Russians have generally been on high alert in the Caucasus. This is nothing new. What's next, you complaining about Americans being on high alert around Ciudad Juarez?

The normal response to a thawing conflict on your border would be de-escalation through diplomacy, not preparation for war. Russia had many options, they could have participated in talks or halted the initial shelling which started the conflict. They had full control over whether or not the Ossetian militias continued to shell or not. It's a joke to suggest otherwise, given all the leverage they had over South Ossetia. The only coherent explanation for Russia's actions is that Medvedev & friends acted with malevolent intent.

I don't think you realize that this railroad was neither: located in Russia, nor in use. There was no purpose in it being functional other than for the invasion. Abkhazia did play a role, it was one of the two regions through which Russian forces entered.


Erm, you do realize that there are more places in the Caucasus than Georgia, and that it really helps to be prepared in that region. It was most peaceful when it was under the USSR. Interestingly enough, during that time, women living there almost achieved equality. Furthermore, railroads have plenty of purposes, one of which is to move supplies from point A to point B, and, amazingly enough, these supplies need not be military. The railroad didn't play a major role in the Ossetian War, and I doubt it played any serious role at all. And yes, Abkhazia played a role, a rather insignificant one. You're looking for straws, and asking why the Russians were prepared to fight in a volatile region.


Neoliberia wrote:
Shofercia wrote:The relationship wasn't damaged because the Chinese figured out who started the war. Had the Russians actually started the war, the relationship would've been damaged.

China did not care about the conflict.


Actually, they do care about their Olympic Games being disrupted by warfare. Why do you think the Chinese sat Putin and Bush next to one another?
Last edited by Shofercia on Sat Feb 04, 2017 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Pope Joan
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Founded: Mar 11, 2009
Ex-Nation

Postby Pope Joan » Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:34 pm

Will the US encourage Nazi ally Croatia to attack Serbians? Yes, we have done so.
Will the US place missile sites in Poland aimed at Russia? Of course.
Will we install neonazis to take over Ukraine, and blame Russia for it? Clearly.

US: will they please move out of Eastern Europe and stop their aggressive posturing?

Please.
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Roskian Federation
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Founded: Jul 13, 2016
Ex-Nation

Postby Roskian Federation » Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:43 pm

Pope Joan wrote:Will the US encourage Nazi ally Croatia to attack Serbians? Yes, we have done so.
Will the US place missile sites in Poland aimed at Russia? Of course.
Will we install neonazis to take over Ukraine, and blame Russia for it? Clearly.

US: will they please move out of Eastern Europe and stop their aggressive posturing?

Please.


only the second statement is likely, but ok.
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Ethel mermania
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Founded: Aug 20, 2010
Corrupt Dictatorship

Postby Ethel mermania » Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:52 pm

Roskian Federation wrote:
Pope Joan wrote:Will the US encourage Nazi ally Croatia to attack Serbians? Yes, we have done so.
Will the US place missile sites in Poland aimed at Russia? Of course.
Will we install neonazis to take over Ukraine, and blame Russia for it? Clearly.

US: will they please move out of Eastern Europe and stop their aggressive posturing?

Please.


only the second statement is likely, but ok.


i think 1 is accurate
and i would say 2 is at the pole's request,
and i dont know that we installed and blamed the russians for 3, but we did support them
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--S. Huntington

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--H. Kissenger

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Roskian Federation
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Founded: Jul 13, 2016
Ex-Nation

Postby Roskian Federation » Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:58 pm

Ethel mermania wrote:
Roskian Federation wrote:
only the second statement is likely, but ok.


i think 1 is accurate
and i would say 2 is at the pole's request,
and i dont know that we installed and blamed the russians for 3, but we did support them


calling croatian nazis is innaccurate, and we most certainly didn't say "go ahead and revolt, bet no balls"
we supported the government, I don't think the american government supported Azov
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Ethel mermania
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Founded: Aug 20, 2010
Corrupt Dictatorship

Postby Ethel mermania » Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:13 pm

Roskian Federation wrote:
Ethel mermania wrote:
i think 1 is accurate
and i would say 2 is at the pole's request,
and i dont know that we installed and blamed the russians for 3, but we did support them


calling croatian nazis is innaccurate, and we most certainly didn't say "go ahead and revolt, bet no balls"
we supported the government, I don't think the american government supported Azov


speaking as a jew, i am not so sure it is inaccurate.
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The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion … but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact; non-Westerners never do.
--S. Huntington

The most fundamental problem of politics is not the control of wickedness but the limitation of righteousness. 

--H. Kissenger

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NeoLiberia
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Founded: Jan 11, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby NeoLiberia » Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:33 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Neoliberia wrote:So according to your reasoning: Saakashvili knew he couldn't defend against Russia, therefore he threw money at his military in order to attack a Russian client....


Saakashvili thought that if he was able to blow up the Roki Tunnel, then his military could capture South Ossetia and use international pressure to force Russia to stop the counter attack. Post Soviet kleptocrats who "discovered Democracy" in order to get loot, erm, funding from the US taxpayers, aren't known for their intelligence. Shortly after Trump's election, do you remember what Saakashvili said?

Well your interpretation of the events seem to be very fallacious. Explaining certain actions as results of ignorance or not according to whether it suits the narrative.

Also characterizing his government as kleptocratic is unfair and inaccurate. Georgia is the most democratic and least corrupt country in the Caucasus as a result of their efforts.

Shofercia wrote:It was most peaceful when it was under the USSR. Interestingly enough, during that time, women living there almost achieved equality.

South Africa had less crime in the 60's. It was most peaceful when under Apartheid.

"women living there almost achieved equality"

All of the independent Caucasian countries implemented women's suffrage in their brief period of independence right after WWI. That's before the US did it. Two of them had liberal and social democratic governments in charge as well. If anything, the Caucasus would be less misogynistic today, had they not been forcefully integrated into the super state which never experienced second wave feminism.
Shofercia wrote:Erm, you do realize that there are more places in the Caucasus than Georgia, and that it really helps to be prepared in that region......Furthermore, railroads have plenty of purposes, one of which is to move supplies from point A to point B, and, amazingly enough, these supplies need not be military. The railroad didn't play a major role in the Ossetian War, and I doubt it played any serious role at all. And yes, Abkhazia played a role, a rather insignificant one. You're looking for straws, and asking why the Russians were prepared to fight in a volatile region.

So they had to prepare for occupying Poti and conquering the Kodori Gorge? But weren't Russia's concerns with the situation in South Ossetia at that time...

The only role that railroad has played in decades is for Russian military movement into Georgia; otherwise it is completely unused. Not a single train has run on it to move supplies from point A to point B.

The point to take out of this is that Russia was preparing for war while ignoring the task of de-escalating a conflict which they in fact helped escalate.
Shofercia wrote:Actually, they do care about their Olympic Games being disrupted by warfare. Why do you think the Chinese sat Putin and Bush next to one another?

Warfare has coincided with the Olympics multiple times.

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Shofercia
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Founded: Feb 22, 2008
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Shofercia » Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:19 am

Neoliberia wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
Saakashvili thought that if he was able to blow up the Roki Tunnel, then his military could capture South Ossetia and use international pressure to force Russia to stop the counter attack. Post Soviet kleptocrats who "discovered Democracy" in order to get loot, erm, funding from the US taxpayers, aren't known for their intelligence. Shortly after Trump's election, do you remember what Saakashvili said?

Well your interpretation of the events seem to be very fallacious. Explaining certain actions as results of ignorance or not according to whether it suits the narrative.

Also characterizing his government as kleptocratic is unfair and inaccurate. Georgia is the most democratic and least corrupt country in the Caucasus as a result of their efforts.


There are only three countries in the Caucasus, and Azerbaijan isn't known for Democracy. Armenia might actually be more democratic than Georgia. And if you want an example of kleptocracy - look up Saakashvili's Land Reforms, where he took land from the people and gave it to his cronies. If Georgia is so Democratic, why not hold a Referendum in South Ossetia and Abkhazia with the people actually living there? Oh yeah, I forgot, it's only Democracy when your guy wins. Oh, and that's not my interpretation - that's what actually happened.


Neoliberia wrote:
Shofercia wrote:It was most peaceful when it was under the USSR. Interestingly enough, during that time, women living there almost achieved equality.

South Africa had less crime in the 60's. It was most peaceful when under Apartheid.

"women living there almost achieved equality"

All of the independent Caucasian countries implemented women's suffrage in their brief period of independence right after WWI. That's before the US did it. Two of them had liberal and social democratic governments in charge as well. If anything, the Caucasus would be less misogynistic today, had they not been forcefully integrated into the super state which never experienced second wave feminism.


Those Governments were in charge? Really? That's like claiming that Lincoln was in charge of Charleston, South Carolina, in 1863. And you have no idea what direction said Civil War would've taken, had they not joined the USSR, but you instantly assume that it would've been better. In Russia - a bunch of politicians assumed that anything would be better than the USSR, and we had the 1990s.


Neoliberia wrote:
Shofercia wrote:Erm, you do realize that there are more places in the Caucasus than Georgia, and that it really helps to be prepared in that region......Furthermore, railroads have plenty of purposes, one of which is to move supplies from point A to point B, and, amazingly enough, these supplies need not be military. The railroad didn't play a major role in the Ossetian War, and I doubt it played any serious role at all. And yes, Abkhazia played a role, a rather insignificant one. You're looking for straws, and asking why the Russians were prepared to fight in a volatile region.

So they had to prepare for occupying Poti and conquering the Kodori Gorge? But weren't Russia's concerns with the situation in South Ossetia at that time...

The only role that railroad has played in decades is for Russian military movement into Georgia; otherwise it is completely unused. Not a single train has run on it to move supplies from point A to point B.

The point to take out of this is that Russia was preparing for war while ignoring the task of de-escalating a conflict which they in fact helped escalate.


Generally speaking, during warfare, you want to take potential key objectives in order to win the campaign. Then again, you were blaming the Russians for being prepared in a volatile region, so you might miss this concept. And the Abkhaz wanted to take Kodori Gorge. The Russians simply provided support. Maybe starting a war in Abkhazia in the early 1990s, while doing the same in South Ossetia, then attacking South Ossetia in 2004, and starting yet another war in 2008, had something to do with that.


Neoliberia wrote:
Shofercia wrote:Actually, they do care about their Olympic Games being disrupted by warfare. Why do you think the Chinese sat Putin and Bush next to one another?

Warfare has coincided with the Olympics multiple times.


Did you just answer a question by stating a random fact, that seems related to said question, but actually isn't? I think you did.
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NeoLiberia
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Founded: Jan 11, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby NeoLiberia » Sun Feb 05, 2017 3:38 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Neoliberia wrote:Well your interpretation of the events seem to be very fallacious. Explaining certain actions as results of ignorance or not according to whether it suits the narrative.

Also characterizing his government as kleptocratic is unfair and inaccurate. Georgia is the most democratic and least corrupt country in the Caucasus as a result of their efforts.


There are only three countries in the Caucasus, and Azerbaijan isn't known for Democracy. Armenia might actually be more democratic than Georgia. And if you want an example of kleptocracy - look up Saakashvili's Land Reforms, where he took land from the people and gave it to his cronies. If Georgia is so Democratic, why not hold a Referendum in South Ossetia and Abkhazia with the people actually living there? Oh yeah, I forgot, it's only Democracy when your guy wins. Oh, and that's not my interpretation - that's what actually happened.

Because this is the kind of stuff you'd characterize as democratic - arresting civil society members for organizing protests. Be aware that Zhirayr (or Jirair) Sefilian is now in jail for "plotting a coup," even better. Sargsyan and his party will never lose power at this point, the only thing keeping Armenia vaguely democratic at this point is its diaspora.

Georgia isn't completely democratic either, but arresting people for "plotting a coup" doesn't happen anymore. If anything the prisons are being emptied of the remaining political prisoners right now. Low level corruption is almost completely eradicated in Georgia. The land reform thing you're referring to was extremely minor.

As for it's only Democracy when your guy wins, his party conceded defeat in 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016.
Those Governments were in charge? Really? That's like claiming that Lincoln was in charge of Charleston, South Carolina, in 1863. And you have no idea what direction said Civil War would've taken, had they not joined the USSR, but you instantly assume that it would've been better. In Russia - a bunch of politicians assumed that anything would be better than the USSR, and we had the 1990s.

Erm, yes they were generally in charge by the time the USSR marched in. Azerbaijan had some problems with its Talysh minority and Nagorno Karabakh of course, but the former was resolved and the latter under control by 1920. Georgia was continuously successful in suppressing all the Bolshevik uprisings during their period of independence.

They were doing pretty well given their extremely difficult circumstances. The safest assumption would be that things would have continued to improve as they had been improving rather than deviating greatly.

Generally speaking, during warfare, you want to take potential key objectives in order to win the campaign. Then again, you were blaming the Russians for being prepared in a volatile region, so you might miss this concept. And the Abkhaz wanted to take Kodori Gorge. The Russians simply provided support. Maybe starting a war in Abkhazia in the early 1990s, while doing the same in South Ossetia, then attacking South Ossetia in 2004, and starting yet another war in 2008, had something to do with that.

Again, why were they doing anything but de-escalating the situation?

Occupying Poti and the Kodori Gorge were not key to anything. The only purpose in taking them was to intimidate and to inflict damage.

A lot of weird factual errors here by the way:
    Saakashvili did not start the war in Abkhazia. Maybe you're referring to Georgia in general. But be aware that the leadership of that country changed several times.
    The conflicts in South Ossetia did not coincide.
    The intervention in South Ossetia in 2004 was very different from what happened in 2008. It wasn't an attempt to take over the region.

If anything the situation in Abkhazia was stabilized by Saakashvili. He got rid of the terrorist-cooperating warlord controlling the Kodori Gorge after all, Abkhazia should have liked that.

Did you just answer a question by stating a random fact, that seems related to said question, but actually isn't? I think you did.

Well then my answer is: I don't know, and I don't think it's significant. China knew what was going on anyway.

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Shofercia
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Posts: 31342
Founded: Feb 22, 2008
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Shofercia » Sat Feb 11, 2017 6:46 pm

Neoliberia wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
There are only three countries in the Caucasus, and Azerbaijan isn't known for Democracy. Armenia might actually be more democratic than Georgia. And if you want an example of kleptocracy - look up Saakashvili's Land Reforms, where he took land from the people and gave it to his cronies. If Georgia is so Democratic, why not hold a Referendum in South Ossetia and Abkhazia with the people actually living there? Oh yeah, I forgot, it's only Democracy when your guy wins. Oh, and that's not my interpretation - that's what actually happened.

Because this is the kind of stuff you'd characterize as democratic - arresting civil society members for organizing protests. Be aware that Zhirayr (or Jirair) Sefilian is now in jail for "plotting a coup," even better. Sargsyan and his party will never lose power at this point, the only thing keeping Armenia vaguely democratic at this point is its diaspora.

Georgia isn't completely democratic either, but arresting people for "plotting a coup" doesn't happen anymore. If anything the prisons are being emptied of the remaining political prisoners right now. Low level corruption is almost completely eradicated in Georgia. The land reform thing you're referring to was extremely minor.

As for it's only Democracy when your guy wins, his party conceded defeat in 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016.


Oh, it doesn't happen anymore... speaking of those glorious Georgian prisons: https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... on/262720/

TBILISI, Georgia -- Today, Georgia enters the final week of a parliamentary election campaign that will be decisive for its future. How decisive? A friend of mine here called it "an apocalyptic crisis that squeezes out of every human heart what is deepest in it." This might sound like an exaggeration, but it's not. The emotional temperature of the contest broke the thermometer last Tuesday night when opposition television showed extensive video footage -- sourced from a Georgian state prison guard who'd fled to Belgium -- of other guards and their superiors torturing, taunting, and sexually assaulting prisoner after prisoner, sodomizing them with broom handles. Angry demonstrations have since lit up in in six different parts the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, despite the efforts of Ilya II, the Orthodox patriarch, and Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire opposition leader, to calm them.

President Mikheil Saakashvili's United National Movement (UNM) is desperately hoping to get all this off the TV screens by election day on October 1 so that people can go to the polls having slipped back into a previously dominant mode of fear toward Ivanishvili, Russia, and the unknown generally. The few intelligent voices still trying to defend the government argue that prison brutality occurs everywhere, that it's hard to eradicate, and that appropriate measures are now being taken to remove the "sick" prison officials responsible for the recent abuses. Good arguments, if we limit ourselves to the incidents directly captured on video. But was something more behind these crimes? I think Georgians have reacted as intensely as they have to the videos on the belief that they symbolize an underlying reality in the country. What people watched on TV wasn't just isolated acts but a brutal system leading to very a specifically bureaucratic program of violence: prisoners being lined up in an orderly, bureaucratic row, holding their files, to be beaten, taunted, and often defiled.


Democracy - Saakashvili style.


Neoliberia wrote:
Shofercia wrote:Those Governments were in charge? Really? That's like claiming that Lincoln was in charge of Charleston, South Carolina, in 1863. And you have no idea what direction said Civil War would've taken, had they not joined the USSR, but you instantly assume that it would've been better. In Russia - a bunch of politicians assumed that anything would be better than the USSR, and we had the 1990s.

Erm, yes they were generally in charge by the time the USSR marched in. Azerbaijan had some problems with its Talysh minority and Nagorno Karabakh of course, but the former was resolved and the latter under control by 1920. Georgia was continuously successful in suppressing all the Bolshevik uprisings during their period of independence.

They were doing pretty well given their extremely difficult circumstances. The safest assumption would be that things would have continued to improve as they had been improving rather than deviating greatly.


Considering what Azerbaijan did to the minority in Nakhichkevan, I strongly doubt that it was just "some problems" and more like "hey let's ethnically cleanse these fuckers while we have the chance!" And if you're constantly suppressing uprisings, you're probably doing something wrong, because uprisings shouldn't happen in the first place. How many uprisings did Switzerland have?


Neoliberia wrote:
Shofercia wrote:Generally speaking, during warfare, you want to take potential key objectives in order to win the campaign. Then again, you were blaming the Russians for being prepared in a volatile region, so you might miss this concept. And the Abkhaz wanted to take Kodori Gorge. The Russians simply provided support. Maybe starting a war in Abkhazia in the early 1990s, while doing the same in South Ossetia, then attacking South Ossetia in 2004, and starting yet another war in 2008, had something to do with that.

Again, why were they doing anything but de-escalating the situation?

Occupying Poti and the Kodori Gorge were not key to anything. The only purpose in taking them was to intimidate and to inflict damage.


Apparently it helps to be ready in the Caucasus. Who knew? Oh yeah, everyone who actually knows the Caucasus. And in the war, you actually want to intimidate your opponent. That's one of the objectives. You're bashing Russia for being prepared for war and for winning the war that Saakashvili started, which is rather hilarious.


Neoliberia wrote:A lot of weird factual errors here by the way:
    Saakashvili did not start the war in Abkhazia. Maybe you're referring to Georgia in general. But be aware that the leadership of that country changed several times.
    The conflicts in South Ossetia did not coincide.
    The intervention in South Ossetia in 2004 was very different from what happened in 2008. It wasn't an attempt to take over the region.


No, it wasn't, because the Georgians could barely hold a hill, much less a country. Hence the massive militarization that followed. And yes, I know that Saakashvili wasn't in power in the 1990s, but Saakashvili's attempt to attract Gamzkhurdia's Crazy Brand of Nationalism, failed just as badly. Those who don't know History are doomed to repeat it.


Neoliberia wrote:If anything the situation in Abkhazia was stabilized by Saakashvili. He got rid of the terrorist-cooperating warlord controlling the Kodori Gorge after all, Abkhazia should have liked that.


Considering that most of Abkhazia wasn't controlled by Saakashvili, I highly doubt that.


Neoliberia wrote:Well then my answer is: I don't know, and I don't think it's significant. China knew what was going on anyway.


Then why did they place Bush and Putin together? To promote Gay Rights in China?
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NeoLiberia
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Founded: Jan 11, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby NeoLiberia » Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:37 pm

Shofercia wrote:[snip]
Democracy - Saakashvili style.

That's called abusive prison conditions. Don't see how it has anything to do with democracy.

Apparently it helps to be ready in the Caucasus. Who knew? Oh yeah, everyone who actually knows the Caucasus. And in the war, you actually want to intimidate your opponent. That's one of the objectives. You're bashing Russia for being prepared for war and for winning the war that Saakashvili started, which is rather hilarious.

They were preparing for war, while not putting any effort into preventing war from happening. Russia could have prevented the war. As I said, the South Ossetian militias certainly were controllable, Russia simply didn't lift a finger. Nor did they cease any of their provocations, for some reason...

No, it wasn't, because the Georgians could barely hold a hill, much less a country. Hence the massive militarization that followed. And yes, I know that Saakashvili wasn't in power in the 1990s, but Saakashvili's attempt to attract Gamzkhurdia's Crazy Brand of Nationalism, failed just as badly. Those who don't know History are doomed to repeat it.

Russkiymir literally came up with a more clear analysis of what happened in 2004. It was a stupid attempt to repeat what had happened in Adjara. If the goal was to take over South Ossetia, then they would have gone further than they did, and wouldn't have given back all the territory captured to Georgia.

Then why did they place Bush and Putin together? To promote Gay Rights in China?

I don't know. Are you saying that Putin lied?

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