Russia; will they make a big move in Eastern Europe?

[Dernland]

Honestly, while I do not like Putin, I think he is a very intelligent man (and so are many of the people that work for the Russian government). He knows his boundaries, and has continued to push them (such as in Ukraine and Crimea) just to see where the rest of the world will draw the line. He's probing to see how far the world will go because he (probably, I can't read minds) doesn't want a third world war, it's bad for business. Nazi Germany leaped over the line and started a bloody war that crippled a lot of Europe and damaged the world economy, so Russia likely wants to avoid that by toeing the line and taking what they can. I don't think they'll make a big move, at least not yet, but they make do something.

[The Lone Alliance]

It's doubtful, the biggest move they might make is outright annexing the Rebel held portion of Ukraine but right now the rebel held portion of Ukraine gives Russia it's buffer zone against the west...

They got the parts of Ukraine they wanted when they took Crimea.

And people who acted like conquering Crimea was some sort of master stroke, the Ukrainians in Crimea pretty much surrendered without firing a shot, I think only a single ship of the Ukrainian navy resisted... with water cannons.

And some airbase guard got shot... I do believe that was the only fighting there.

[Infected Mushroom]

Yes they will. And when the time comes, I stand behind the Russian claims. Russia should unify Eastern Europe, its for the greater good. We need a counterbalance against the USA's imperialism.

[Dernland]

Yes they will. And when the time comes, I stand behind the Russian claims. Russia should unify Eastern Europe, its for the greater good. We need a counterbalance against the USA's imperialism.

So support one country's imperialism to stop another's? Gee, where have I heard that one before...

[Thermodolia]

Yes they will. And when the time comes, I stand behind the Russian claims. Russia should unify Eastern Europe, its for the greater good. We need a counterbalance against the USA's imperialism.

So you are for letting nations and there people get invaded and taken over by something they don't want? Also last I checked the US didn't invade half of Ukraine

[The One True Benxboro Empire]

Yes they will. And when the time comes, I stand behind the Russian claims. Russia should unify Eastern Europe, its for the greater good. We need a counterbalance against the USA's imperialism.

So you are for letting nations and there people get invaded and taken over by something they don't want? Also last I checked the US didn't invade half of Ukraine

Well, Russia didn't do that either.

[Dernland]

Well, Russia didn't do that either.

They just invaded an eighth.

[The One True Benxboro Empire]

Well, Russia didn't do that either.

They just invaded an eighth.

I know. I intended only to correct an exaggeration. When the Russians call their opponents a band of drunk fascists hellbent on genocide we could do with less of that.

[Herskerstad]

I suspect it's not off the cards for Putin to want to annex some more Ukrainian regions, but I suspect that might be it. I think he desires to partially retire come the end of his term and wants a legacy of a reunifier of Russian territories.

Of course, those retirement plans have a tendency to get substituted at the first sign of dissatisfaction.

[Frank Zipper]

I think a big move in the Middle East is more likely in Russia's sights. The US's withdrawal from the stage has left a power vacuum.

[Pope Joan]

Everythiung Russia has done in Ukraine is supported by the treaty of Partition; these are not aggressive actions,

What was aggressive was our destabilizing Kiev so that we could install neonazi puppets there.

[San Marlindo]

Russia's going to do something because Russia ALWAYS does something to spite the West.

But we must prevent them from reestablishing the USSR - the world does not want or need that hellhole back. Other than that, there is a chance that Russia will try to do what it did in Ukraine with a different Eastern European nation. Hell, they might even use Königsberg (Kaliningrad is bullshit) as a FOB if they really wanted to go after one of them.

Putin once said whoever misses the USSR has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no head.

Give him some credit.

[San Marlindo]

Everythiung Russia has done in Ukraine is supported by the treaty of Partition; these are not aggressive actions,

What was aggressive was our destabilizing Kiev so that we could install neonazi puppets there.

To be fair the Euromaiden thing probably would've happened anyway with or without the West. As well as the right-wing backlash in general in Ukraine.

See Orange Revolution.

It was just a matter of time.

[Costa Fierro]

The US in particular could take down Russia on its own, simply by aligning itself with the oligarchs and funding the opposition.

Of whom there are very few and far between and are mostly keeping to themselves lest they suddenly find themselves in a Siberian prison with the federal government taking control of all their property, financial wealth and whatever companies they own.

Not to mention they wouldn't have the popular support of the Russian public or the military. Given that any effective opposition in Russia has been assassinated, exiled or imprisoned, there's little point in going after ogilarchs.

I think a big move in the Middle East is more likely in Russia's sights. The US's withdrawal from the stage has left a power vacuum.

The United States won't completely withdraw from the Middle East, it simply will not enter into any conflicts unless their direct interests are threatened or American military personnel are attacked. Things will more or less remain the same. Saudi Arabia will continue buying weapons from Western military companies and from China, Iran will continue to try and reconcile with the West whilst receiving new weapons from Russia and upgrades to current ones and Israel will still continue to scream blue bloody murder whenever the UN tries to enforce international law. Not to mention the Arabs, Kurds and other local ethnic groups will continue to kill each other for being the wrong kind of Muslim or the wrong shade of brown.

It's more or less business as usual.

Yes they will. And when the time comes, I stand behind the Russian claims. Russia should unify Eastern Europe, its for the greater good. We need a counterbalance against the USA's imperialism.

By...imperialism?

It's doubtful, the biggest move they might make is outright annexing the Rebel held portion of Ukraine but right now the rebel held portion of Ukraine gives Russia it's buffer zone against the west...

You mean a few hundred square kilometres of destroyed buildings and dilapidated factories? Some buffer zone. Russia would be better off installing a pro-Russian government in Kiev.

[Baltenstein]

You mean a few hundred square kilometres of destroyed buildings and dilapidated factories? Some buffer zone. Russia would be better off installing a pro-Russian government in Kiev.

Well, they tried that. It didn't work out.

However, Russia's main objective seems to be to keep its smaller neighbors from joining NATO. Since you're automatically barred from membership if your territorial integrity is compromised, this means that Georgia, Ukraine and Moldovia - all of whom have a Russian military presence inside their borders - are off the table for the foreseeable future.

[Lautrec-]

With their puppet being the president of the US, Russia will definitely keep expanding into Ukraine. The real concern is what Europe will do to stop them after the blunder of the US election.

If other European countries elect more Russian puppets, we will have a problem because it could undermine the very existence of NATO. And without NATO, Russia will be free to attack the Baltic states as well.

[Wiepolskie]

If the Donbass Republics want to join Russia, or at least secede from Ukraine, it is well within their right to do so. A majority of them speak Russian, and feel more at home in Russia.

[Valaran]

Depends what one means by a big move. I reckon they may increase pressure on the EU, and Ukraine*, but these are continuations of current policies. Its less certain whether Putin will cause a 'new' upset.

*though probably not expansion. I'd look towards economic pressure, specifically.

[Uxupox]

With their puppet being the president of the US, Russia will definitely keep expanding into Ukraine. The real concern is what Europe will do to stop them after the blunder of the US election.

If other European countries elect more Russian puppets, we will have a problem because it could undermine the very existence of NATO. And without NATO, Russia will be free to attack the Baltic states as well.

The baltic states particularly Estonia adopted a very exemplary strategy to defend against any Russian incursion.

[Valaran]

With their puppet being the president of the US, Russia will definitely keep expanding into Ukraine. The real concern is what Europe will do to stop them after the blunder of the US election.

If other European countries elect more Russian puppets, we will have a problem because it could undermine the very existence of NATO. And without NATO, Russia will be free to attack the Baltic states as well.

The baltic states particularly Estonia adopted a very exemplary strategy to defend against any Russian incursion.

As exemplary as it may be, it would get overrun in 36 hours.

[The Romulan Republic]

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Eastern European countries start pursuing their own nuclear deterrents, because God knows they can't count on the US any more.

[Baltenstein]

With their puppet being the president of the US, Russia will definitely keep expanding into Ukraine. The real concern is what Europe will do to stop them after the blunder of the US election.

If other European countries elect more Russian puppets, we will have a problem because it could undermine the very existence of NATO. And without NATO, Russia will be free to attack the Baltic states as well.

The baltic states particularly Estonia adopted a very exemplary strategy to defend against any Russian incursion.

The thing is, Russia can throw more soldiers at Estonia than Estonia has citizens. Plus, Estonia is mostly flat, which means it can't really sustain any effective campaign of guerilla warfare either.
It's really one of these countries that are virtually indefensible on their own.

[Dumb Ideologies]

Russia is probably not going to do anything unless there are moves by NATO or the EU for closer relations with countries Russia sees as part of its sphere of influence. Don't sit in the bushes throwing sticks at the bear and rationality rather than nationalist fervour is likely to prevail. Potential sanctions would cost Russia a lot more than that clay is worth.

[Uxupox]

The baltic states particularly Estonia adopted a very exemplary strategy to defend against any Russian incursion.

As exemplary as it may be, it would get overrun in 36 hours.

Not really. Estonia would completely abandon any sort of conventional warfare method and pursue guerrilla warfare akin to that of the Chechens (With probably greater defensive results).

The baltic states particularly Estonia adopted a very exemplary strategy to defend against any Russian incursion.

The thing is, Russia can throw more soldiers at Estonia than Estonia has citizens. Plus, Estonia is mostly flat, which means it can't really sustain any effective campaign of guerilla warfare either.
It's really one of these countries that are virtually indefensible on their own.

Throwing more men doesn't mean complete victory. While I do agree that the majority of the country has defenseless positions they do have places such as bogs, rivers and forests that could severely hamper any sort of military intervention in Estonia by foreign militaries.

[Valaran]

As exemplary as it may be, it would get overrun in 36 hours.

Not really. Estonia would completely abandon any sort of conventional warfare method and pursue guerrilla warfare akin to that of the Chechens (With probably greater defensive results).

Except that Estonia is a relatively small and featureless country, without much in the way of sufficient terrain (or large urban centres) from which to conduct any significant resistance. It hasn't got a large population either. Russia can easily flood the country with troops. To compare: Chechnya is mountainous, has porous borders (allowing the easy movement of supporters and arms) and had greater experience at resistance fighting. And Chechnya got crushed. To assume that Russia wouldn't simply unleash a Grozny (which they've since refined) on Tallinn or other areas of resistance would be naive, and those operations were pretty successful.

Resistance, would conceptually make more sense if there was a notion that NATO would intervene and later liberate the country, but the point about Russia swamping the country is that it present NATO with a dilemma (or sending massive forces to fight a war that could dangerously escalate or to back off). At no level does guerrilla fighting reduce the de facto state of ground; guerrilla fighting takes time to become effective. Hence why the simple fact of Russia swamping Estonia is sufficient to create a fait accompli, a fact that Estonian resistance (which is unlikely to have much success) would not change.

And yes, it would take about 36 hours.