French presidential primaries

[Baltenstein]

Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france ... KKBN16A15E

Odoxa is first to speculate that Macron will lead the first round at 27%, followed by Le Pen at 25.5%. However, the increasingly centrist Juppé could have Le Pen out in the first round if he chose to run under the LR ticket, or as an independent.

Where did Juppé come from, all of a sudden? He already withdrew from the race months ago. And Fillon hasn´t shown any sign of being willing to step down in favor of Juppé.

[Minoa]

Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france ... KKBN16A15E

Odoxa is first to speculate that Macron will lead the first round at 27%, followed by Le Pen at 25.5%. However, the increasingly centrist Juppé could have Le Pen out in the first round if he chose to run under the LR ticket, or as an independent.

Where did Juppé come from, all of a sudden? He already withdrew from the race months ago. And Fillon hasn´t shown any sign of being willing to step down in favor of Juppé.

Given how Fillon is unravelling, some LR campaigners want Juppé back.

(Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/arti ... gn-turmoil)

BTW, I think that the underlying issue with inciting racial hatred over a whole ethnic group just because of ISIL may have contributed to Le Pen's loss of immunity.

[Constantinopolis]

Obligatory Macron reference.

As much as I despise liberalism, I hereby declare that I will support Emmanuel Macron if he adopts this as his theme song.

[Socialist Nordia]

Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france ... KKBN16A15E

Odoxa is first to speculate that Macron will lead the first round at 27%, followed by Le Pen at 25.5%. However, the increasingly centrist Juppé could have Le Pen out in the first round if he chose to run under the LR ticket, or as an independent.

Well, let's just hope macron can keep this up, because France is safe for now.

I doubt Juppe is happening, though.

[Occupied Deutschland]

Obligatory Macron reference.

As much as I despise liberalism, I hereby declare that I will support Emmanuel Macron if he adopts this as his theme song.

Sounds more like a song to be played at his victory announcement/party.
What with the whole 'Macron won' thing.

[Arlenton]

Looks like Fillon is slipping, and I doubt Le Pen can beat Macron. Hope I'm wrong.

Do you want the anti-American maniac to win?

I want Fillon to win and I don't want Macron to win.

[Geilinor]

Do you want the anti-American maniac to win?

I want Fillon to win and I don't want Macron to win.

Fillon is on the verge of being forced out and replaced by his party.

[Arlenton]

I want Fillon to win and I don't want Macron to win.

Fillon is on the verge of being forced out and replaced by his party.

I know. Looks like it may come down to Le Pen vs Macron.


Unless LR could replace Fillon and the new person could win? (Not too familiar with French politics so IDK how this works)

[Kilobugya]

I also think that that's more or less a good case in which political immunity make sense: posting images of crimes committed by IS as a political statement is exactly the kind of behavior that should be protected by political immunity, just because it's part of a political position.

Not when it means desecrating the memory of the victim and doing it in clear opposition of the will of his family, IMHO.

By attacking her in such way, they're making a major error, that could give her the presidency.

They ? Who is "they" in this context ? The France justice system is doing its job - investigating and prosecuting violations of the law, no matter who did them, and while individual judges have their own political opinions, they shouldn't and usually don't let them interfere with their job.

Or you're referring to the europarl ?

But anyway that stuff will be very minor in term of effects, both ways (and I still think that her frontal attack on justice/police will cost her more votes, especially among the policemen who are among her stronger supporters, than the victim effect will bring her, but both will be very minor).

[Union of Despotistan]

Fillon is on the verge of being forced out and replaced by his party.

I know. Looks like it may come down to Le Pen vs Macron.


Unless LR could replace Fillon and the new person could win? (Not too familiar with French politics so IDK how this works)

Nome neoliberals said Alain Juppé.
While there are regions of France in which he is quite popular, he also had run ins with justice and might ultimately just be a less terrible Fillon.

But hey, that's what I like about French politics, right now all is possible still.

[Raszezsar]

Out of the major candidates? Melenchon easily. When I browsed the minor candidates, it saddened me a little to be reminded how, yet again, the left is divided all over the place.

[United Muscovite Nations]

If I were French, I would just off myself at the polling place rather than vote for any of these people.

[Shrillland]

If I were French, I would just off myself at the polling place rather than vote for any of these people.

Well, there's still the Assembly elections in June, maybe you'll find something you like there.

[Neu Leonstein]

Unless LR could replace Fillon and the new person could win? (Not too familiar with French politics so IDK how this works)

Realistically they probably have about a week. To become a presidential candidate, you have to submit your name to the people who do the list. Along with that, you have to submit a bunch of supporting signatures from various officials around the country. There's something like 40,000 people whose signatures count, and you only need a few hundred - but they do have to come from many different places.

For a major party, this is relatively easy to do. However, there are obviously some logistics involved in getting the paperwork done. I'm not 100% on the dates here, but I think the deadline for submission might be the 17th of March, with the list finalised and released on the 20th.

Even if Fillon pulled out voluntarily after the list is finalised, as I understand it, he could not be replaced by Juppé or anyone else. He might get removed from the list, but no one new can be added. That would be an absolute worst case scenario for LR - but it at least possible, given that Fillon has to appear before a judge after the list is finalised. Hence the push from various folks within the party to get him to step aside.

Rumour has it, we might see it early next week. LR is having a party rally on Sunday, and if he doesn't get unified support there, some aides have suggested he would step aside.

[Major-Tom]

Do you want the anti-American maniac to win?

I want Fillon to win and I don't want Macron to win.

I wanted Fillion as well. Yes, he is corrupt, but so is every fucking French politician. Juppe especially...his popularity really doesn't exist much outside of Bordeaux.

[Saint-Thor]

Emmanuel Macron sounds like a total globalist to me. There's no French culture in France, just a diverse culture in France". What a ridiculous statement. I'm surprised his campaign slogan is not in English.

[Geilinor]

Emmanuel Macron sounds like a total globalist to me. There's no French culture in France, just a diverse culture in France". What a ridiculous statement. I'm surprised his campaign slogan is not in English.

Intentional misquote.

[Saint-Thor]

Emmanuel Macron sounds like a total globalist to me. There's no French culture in France, just a diverse culture in France". What a ridiculous statement. I'm surprised his campaign slogan is not in English.

Intentional misquote.

I heard it in French. It's a free translation meaning the exact same thing.

[Geilinor]

Intentional misquote.

I heard it in French. It's a free translation meaning the exact same thing.

The way you translated it makes it sound more radical. The connotation is subtly different.

[Disagreeable Opinions]

I think Fillon, Macron, and Le Pen are all equally great candidates. I agree with all of them.

[Great Franconia and Verana]

I think Fillon, Macron, and Le Pen are all equally great candidates. I agree with all of them.

*Whispers to NSer next to me*
"Can he do that?"

[Great Franconia and Verana]

Fillon is on the verge of being forced out and replaced by his party.

I know. Looks like it may come down to Le Pen vs Macron.


Unless LR could replace Fillon and the new person could win? (Not too familiar with French politics so IDK how this works)

I'm hoping Fillon stays in until at least the candidate deadline. Fillon would make a Macron victory much more likely, whereas a replacement, likely Juppe, would split the moderate vote much more.

So long as Le Pen loses however, I am fine with the result, though, Macron seems to be closest to me politically, and the one candidate not afraid to speak out against this BS populism the FN and other parties like it are pushing.

[Kilobugya]

Realistically they probably have about a week.

A tiny bit more but yeah not so much.

To become a presidential candidate, you have to submit your name to the people who do the list. Along with that, you have to submit a bunch of supporting signatures from various officials around the country. There's something like 40,000 people whose signatures count, and you only need a few hundred - but they do have to come from many different places.

For a major party, this is relatively easy to do. However, there are obviously some logistics involved in getting the paperwork done. I'm not 100% on the dates here, but I think the deadline for submission might be the 17th of March, with the list finalised and released on the 20th.

There is some paperwork, but with a party with so many mayors & co than LR, they could get it done in 2 days I would say, and the deadline sis the 18th IIRC, so they would have until the 15-16 to decide.

Even if Fillon pulled out voluntarily after the list is finalised, as I understand it, he could not be replaced by Juppé or anyone else. He might get removed from the list, but no one new can be added. That would be an absolute worst case scenario for LR - but it at least possible, given that Fillon has to appear before a judge after the list is finalised. Hence the push from various folks within the party to get him to step aside.

If Fillon pulls out after the date, the Constitutional Council can decide to postpone the elections, the law says they must do it if a candidate is "prevented" from running, if being forced to renounce due to a scandal is considered "prevented" is up to them to decide. Since LR is one the main parties, having no candidate from it would distort the election, so it would somewhat fair to postpone it - as much as I oppose LR, they still have the right to have a (half-decent) candidate.

Rumour has it, we might see it early next week. LR is having a party rally on Sunday, and if he doesn't get unified support there, some aides have suggested he would step aside.

Since he said he would go ahead anyway last thursday, more than 200 of LR mayors/MPs/... including his campaign head resigned. Even if his rally is half-successfull (and I doubt it'll be more than that, even with the backing of the anti-gay marriage "la manif pour tous"), it's likely he'll give up, especially since polls show Fillon evicted in the first round, but Juppé arriving first, ahead of Le Pen and Macron. Fillon is supposed to speak on TV tonight, we'll see what he says.

[Major-Tom]

Juppé is an alright, albeit, wishy washy candidate. Sorta a flip flopper, and like Fillon, he has a lot of dirty laundry. Juppé really only benefits from his high levels of support in the Bordeaux area.

Still, I'll take him over Macron and LePen. If LR really wanted to win this time around, they simply should not have had Sarkozy, Juppé, and Fillon as their 3 main contenders in the primaries. Really makes the LR seem like the party of corruption, and the PS the party of incompetence. Something like 60% of Frenchmen support either Melenchon, LePen, or Macron in the first round.

[Major-Tom]

Also, any possibility Bayrou(otherwise known as the forgotten Europhile from 2007) joins a joint ticket with Macron?