French presidential primaries

[NeoLiberia]

Looks like Fillon is slipping, and I doubt Le Pen can beat Macron. Hope I'm wrong.

Do you want the anti-American maniac to win?

[Othelos]

Looks like Fillon is slipping, and I doubt Le Pen can beat Macron. Hope I'm wrong.

Do you want the anti-American maniac to win?

As an American, I would rather have someone who dislikes the US be in charge than someone who wants to dismantle the european union

[Aquesta]

Do you want the anti-American maniac to win?

As an American, I would rather have someone who dislikes the US be in charge than someone who wants to dismantle the european union

As an Irishman I would prefer someone who wants to dismantle the European Union.

[Kilobugya]

Le Pen is worse on the paper but she would face more opposition, while Macron would basically rule without a real opposition and by so having full power to make things being quite similar to how actually are...just only worse in almost every imaginable field...

Macron will not have a majority in the parliament either, he'll have to ally himself with LR and PS, probably in shifting alliance depending on topics, but it will be tricky for him. And there will be a strong opposition from the "left", ie PCF/FdG/part of the PS and the unions (CGT, FSU, FO, Sud at least, maybe even the CFDT).

[Philjia]

Le Pen has lost her immunity to prosecution for breaking obscene communication laws. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39141391

Schadenfreude.

[Minoa]

With Fillon and Le Pen in deep trouble, candidates that most currently see as minor may have a fresh chance against Macron. Perhaps Hamon? Or Juppé, if he chooses to go it alone and LR still refuses to budge?

Or Chuck Norris?

[Great Nepal]

Le Pen has lost her immunity to prosecution for breaking obscene communication laws. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39141391

Schadenfreude.

Is this likely to result in significant investigation within the next month; seems bit too late to have a significant impact.

[Philjia]

Le Pen has lost her immunity to prosecution for breaking obscene communication laws. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39141391

Schadenfreude.

So she is prosecuted because of a twitter imagery?

She could be.

[Philjia]

She could be.

What exactly did she posted?

Images of IS atrocities.

[Kilobugya]

So she is prosecuted because of a twitter imagery?

Well, yes you can be prosecuted for twitting an image - like for tweeting a child porn image, or a private image of someone without his consent, or in that case the French law prohibits images that can "severely infringe upon human dignity", which could very well include people being beheaded by ISIS (especially when the family of the victim didn't want the images to be published).

[Kilobugya]

Will twitter get fined as well?

I don't think so, since the image was removed. IANAL, but from what I know on the French law of services/hosting provider, they are not legally responsible about the content published by end users as long as 1. they keep logs (with IP, date, ...) of who did it and provide it to the justice when asked 2. they remove illegal content when asked to do so by a court.

[Socialist Nordia]

French presidential candidate Macron criticizes Trump's policies

[Kilobugya]

French presidential candidate Macron criticizes Trump's policies

Hehe well that's not _news_ Everyone (except Le Pen) here criticizes Trump and either mock him or just bash him (and he does deserve it).

[Herskerstad]

Le Pen has lost her immunity to prosecution for breaking obscene communication laws. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39141391

Schadenfreude.

I get the feeling that short of a prosecution leading to a party withdrawal of support, as would have been the case if say hypothetically Clinton had been prosecuted, that prosecution enabled through oddities like these will just whip up her support come the election. There is a notion that the justice system in France is not entirely impartisan come elections.

[Kilobugya]

I get the feeling that short of a prosecution leading to a party withdrawal of support, as would have been the case if say hypothetically Clinton had been prosecuted, that prosecution enabled through oddities like these will just whip up her support come the election. There is a notion that the justice system in France is not entirely impartisan come elections.

Well, there is such a notion spread only by the two candidates who are under fire because they did break the law, the same ones who tend to be more "zero tolerance" and "though justice" usually. Apart from their hard-core partisan who would vote for them whatever happens, I doubt many people believe that thesis. But I also doubt the "twitting photos of IS murders" thing will cost her votes, it's a really minor offense - the "emplois fictifs" affairs, and the "illegal campaign financing" affairs, can hurt her more, as did hurt Fillon a lot, depending how much it runs in the media, and what happen on that front during the next few weeks.

[Herskerstad]

I get the feeling that short of a prosecution leading to a party withdrawal of support, as would have been the case if say hypothetically Clinton had been prosecuted, that prosecution enabled through oddities like these will just whip up her support come the election. There is a notion that the justice system in France is not entirely impartisan come elections.

Well, there is such a notion spread only by the two candidates who are under fire because they did break the law, the same ones who tend to be more "zero tolerance" and "though justice" usually. Apart from their hard-core partisan who would vote for them whatever happens, I doubt many people believe that thesis. But I also doubt the "twitting photos of IS murders" thing will cost her votes, it's a really minor offense - the "emplois fictifs" affairs, and the "illegal campaign financing" affairs, can hurt her more, as did hurt Fillon a lot, depending how much it runs in the media, and what happen on that front during the next few weeks.

Sure, though there is almost expectations of such in French politics given the state, and from what I have come to understand nothing concrete has really been lifted against Le Pen since the raids, and short of anything coming from that, then it will probably give her every reason she needs to clutch her pearls and talk about the justice department being used for political gain, which tends to gain votes.

[Sanctissima]

Well, there is such a notion spread only by the two candidates who are under fire because they did break the law, the same ones who tend to be more "zero tolerance" and "though justice" usually. Apart from their hard-core partisan who would vote for them whatever happens, I doubt many people believe that thesis. But I also doubt the "twitting photos of IS murders" thing will cost her votes, it's a really minor offense - the "emplois fictifs" affairs, and the "illegal campaign financing" affairs, can hurt her more, as did hurt Fillon a lot, depending how much it runs in the media, and what happen on that front during the next few weeks.

Sure, though there is almost expectations of such in French politics given the state, and from what I have come to understand nothing concrete has really been lifted against Le Pen since the raids, and short of anything coming from that, then it will probably give her every reason she needs to clutch her pearls and talk about the justice department being used for political gain, which tends to gain votes.

Perhaps, but she's lost a lot of support in the French police forces. Not so much because of the photos, but because of her refusal to cooperate with them. It's a bit of a trade-off, since French police are natural FN voters.

[Herskerstad]

Sure, though there is almost expectations of such in French politics given the state, and from what I have come to understand nothing concrete has really been lifted against Le Pen since the raids, and short of anything coming from that, then it will probably give her every reason she needs to clutch her pearls and talk about the justice department being used for political gain, which tends to gain votes.

Perhaps, but she's lost a lot of support in the French police forces. Not so much because of the photos, but because of her refusal to cooperate with them. It's a bit of a trade-off, since French police are natural FN voters.

True, it will be hard to say at present where it will come up, and doubtlessly she'll make some display to get portions of the public sector on her side come the near end of the elections.

[Zakuvia]

Well, there is such a notion spread only by the two candidates who are under fire because they did break the law, the same ones who tend to be more "zero tolerance" and "though justice" usually. Apart from their hard-core partisan who would vote for them whatever happens, I doubt many people believe that thesis. But I also doubt the "twitting photos of IS murders" thing will cost her votes, it's a really minor offense - the "emplois fictifs" affairs, and the "illegal campaign financing" affairs, can hurt her more, as did hurt Fillon a lot, depending how much it runs in the media, and what happen on that front during the next few weeks.

Sure, though there is almost expectations of such in French politics given the state, and from what I have come to understand nothing concrete has really been lifted against Le Pen since the raids, and short of anything coming from that, then it will probably give her every reason she needs to clutch her pearls and talk about the justice department being used for political gain, which tends to gain votes.

It will. And the reaction to her tweets will only galvanize her base. She'll make the claim that she's being suppressed by the MSM, and will stand out as a hero of free speech against a tyrannical leftist conspiracy. The annoying orange-hair used it to rather good effect stateside.

[Minoa]

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39146848

BBC reports that the French police raided presidential candidate Francois Fillon's home over the fake jobs probe.

Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france ... KKBN16910J

Meanwhile, Macron focused on parliamentary reform. In my opinion, the chambers are already small compared to those in the UK. The Bundestag has 630 seats.

With 925 seats in total, I could do 600 in the Assemblée nationale and 300 in the Senate, instead of the current 577 and 348 (321 before September 2004). While the net loss is small, the numbers are easier to work with (i.e. two Deputies for each Senator). BTW, the estimated population of France is slightly less than the UK by less than a million. Unlike the UK, it is no longer possible to get a definitive figure for a single reference date since 2004, when France started doing partial censuses.

Fighting racial hatred should also be important for Macron if he wins.

[Chessmistress]

Le Pen has lost her immunity to prosecution for breaking obscene communication laws. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39141391

Schadenfreude.

I get the feeling that short of a prosecution leading to a party withdrawal of support, as would have been the case if say hypothetically Clinton had been prosecuted, that prosecution enabled through oddities like these will just whip up her support come the election. There is a notion that the justice system in France is not entirely impartisan come elections.

Same feeling here.
She's being under attack for posting images of crimes committed by IS: that's very likely to be perceived as a persecution against her.
I also think that that's more or less a good case in which political immunity make sense: posting images of crimes committed by IS as a political statement is exactly the kind of behavior that should be protected by political immunity, just because it's part of a political position.
By attacking her in such way, they're making a major error, that could give her the presidency.

[Sanctissima]

I get the feeling that short of a prosecution leading to a party withdrawal of support, as would have been the case if say hypothetically Clinton had been prosecuted, that prosecution enabled through oddities like these will just whip up her support come the election. There is a notion that the justice system in France is not entirely impartisan come elections.

Same feeling here.
She's being under attack for posting images of crimes committed by IS: that's very likely to be perceived as a persecution against her.
I also think that that's more or less a good case in which political immunity make sense: posting images of crimes committed by IS as a political statement is exactly the kind of behavior that should be protected by political immunity, just because it's part of a political position.
By attacking her in such way, they're making a major error, that could give her the presidency.

Honestly, the way the Socialist Party has handled the situation so far, I'm not convinced that political strategy is even on their agenda. If it is, they're really bad at it.

[The Grande Republic 0f Arcadia]

I get the feeling that short of a prosecution leading to a party withdrawal of support, as would have been the case if say hypothetically Clinton had been prosecuted, that prosecution enabled through oddities like these will just whip up her support come the election. There is a notion that the justice system in France is not entirely impartisan come elections.

Same feeling here.
She's being under attack for posting images of crimes committed by IS: that's very likely to be perceived as a persecution against her.
I also think that that's more or less a good case in which political immunity make sense: posting images of crimes committed by IS as a political statement is exactly the kind of behavior that should be protected by political immunity, just because it's part of a political position.
By attacking her in such way, they're making a major error, that could give her the presidency.

You would think they would learn from the Democratic Partys mistakes here in the states especially since she is in the lead

[Chessmistress]

Honestly, the way the Socialist Party has handled the situation so far, I'm not convinced that political strategy is even on their agenda. If it is, they're really bad at it.

It looks like more they were willingly commiting a political suicide, especially with "Loi Travail": the idea that they could actually raise their popularity by pandering to few hundreds thousands employers (however on the whole still more ready to vote for the right) while pissing off some million workers was at best laughable.

[Minoa]

Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france ... KKBN16A15E

Odoxa is first to speculate that Macron will lead the first round at 27%, followed by Le Pen at 25.5%. However, the increasingly centrist Juppé could have Le Pen out in the first round if he chose to run under the LR ticket, or as an independent.