French presidential primaries

[Kilobugya]

Last news on justice front :

1. One of Marine Le Pen's key lieutenant has been indicted for abusing europarl funds, Marine Le Pen herself has been summoned to the police for a hearing but refused to come (she has europarl immunity so they can't force her).

2. The PNF ("parquet national financier", doing preliminary inquiries on all corruption, tax evasion, abuse of public money, ... cases) transferred François Fillon's case to a "juge d'instruction" (independent judge with broad investigation power), confirming that the affair is pretty serious. Due to the sensitiveness of the case, it'll likely be a college of three judges running the investigation, to avoid accusations of partisanships.

What a mess... what a bunch of corrupt politicians on the right...

[New haven america]

No, it was not. When the French left Algeria, not only it was devastated by a very barbaric (yes, I use that word too, just look systematically the French army used torture) war, but also with a complete lack of educated population. When the French left Algeria, there was like 10 doctors in the whole country. Same for engineers, scientists, lawyers, ... the French just didn't educate the local population to "high skills" jobs, they wanted to keep them under permanent domination of the French elites, so they could continue forever to exploit natural resources and workforce.

Algeria, after winning the independence war, had to beg Cuba for doctors, and Cuba, despite just a couple of years of its own Revolution and still having so many problems to tackle home, sent them help. Tiny island Cuba rescuing Algeria from the mess the French left there.

Yes it was. You seems rather eager to use hyperboles but that just makes you sound out of touch with reality. Algeria was neither devastated nor l'armée barbaric. Sure, there were acts of torture but they were on both side and most of them were used to extract informations. As for Education, just compare the numbers of Algeria to the ones of Maroc or Tunisia. You will see a drastic difference that only existed thanks to a long-standing French effort to help the locals.

When it comes to Edu., as of 2016, Tunisia currently outranks both Morocco and Algeria. (With Algeria actually doing the worst out of the three)

Tunisia's #53, Morocco's #74, and Algeria is #105.

[Neu Leonstein]

More drama in financial markets this week...

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/arti ... -euro-exit

[...]

“They come in with preconceptions,” Monot said. “They think we want to break everything up. But we tell them: we will honor France’s signature and commit to maintain the economic, monetary and financial stability of the country. When we tell them all that, they are reassured, they are even surprised,” he added.

[...]

So says the Le Pen guy. Meanwhile, markets be like:

[San Lumen]

so are French opinions polls reliable? All signs point to Macron crushing Le Pen in the runoff. If he wins would be a safe assessment to say the alt right is not rising in Europe?

[Alozia]

so are French opinions polls reliable? All signs point to Macron crushing Le Pen in the runoff. If he wins would be a safe assessment to say the alt right is not rising in Europe?

I wouldn't say that the alt-right was on the rise in Europe in the first place. Farage and LePen or Petry aren't alt-right (athough they are praised by 'it'[?]).

[SP Rebellion]

Haha, this time around I guess I can finally say...

#I'mWithHer

[Shrillland]

so are French opinions polls reliable? All signs point to Macron crushing Le Pen in the runoff. If he wins would be a safe assessment to say the alt right is not rising in Europe?

Not necessarily. There's still the Parliamentary elections in June, and FN's poised to get nearly 60 seats in the Chamber according to the latest polls.

[Kilobugya]

so are French opinions polls reliable?

They are more or less reliable as in "if the election would be today, the result would be close". But elections are in two months, and about half of people say they aren't sure for whom they'll vote - and even without that, lots of things can happen in two months.

All signs point to Macron crushing Le Pen in the runoff. If he wins would be a safe assessment to say the alt right is not rising in Europe?

It's very, very likely Le Pen will lost in the runoff, yes. Many French people still (rightfully) hate her and consider FN to not be a "republican" party. But that doesn't mean the extreme right (or "alt right" if you want, but let's call a cat a cat) isn't on the raise - it is on the raise, and the more we'll pursue neoliberal policies and sink into the crisis, the more it'll raise. It'll just not have raised enough to take power this time, which is a relief, but perhaps a short-term one.

[Ostroeuropa]

so are French opinions polls reliable? All signs point to Macron crushing Le Pen in the runoff. If he wins would be a safe assessment to say the alt right is not rising in Europe?

She'll get 40% of the vote according to current polls, representing a MASSIVE swing to the nationalist faction.

Remember also the polling data on these issues has tended to underestimate this group. I wouldn't count her out just yet.

[Neu Leonstein]

Not necessarily. There's still the Parliamentary elections in June, and FN's poised to get nearly 60 seats in the Chamber according to the latest polls.

"Latest" in inverted commas, no? I'd love to see up-to-date estimates of how the legislative elections will go, but I haven't seen any recent ones. If you know of some, by all means!

Remember also the polling data on these issues has tended to underestimate this group. I wouldn't count her out just yet.

It actually hasn't. Not FN - it's been around since the 70s, my impression was that the pollsters have gotten pretty good at predicting their results.

Also, while we're all talking polling uncertainty... according to the latest Opinionway poll, a 5% swing away from Le Pen could be enough to not see her in the second round at all. I wouldn't even count her in just yet either.

[Kilobugya]

She'll get 40% of the vote according to current polls, representing a MASSIVE swing to the nationalist faction.

More a massive rejection of "mainstream" politics, more than a real support to FN, but still worrying yes.

Remember also the polling data on these issues has tended to underestimate this group. I wouldn't count her out just yet.

Not really, they "correct" for that. Typically they do things like asking "for who do you think you'll vote next elections ?" and then "for who did you vote in last elections ?" and if only 15% of people admit they voted Le Pen last elections, but 18% did vote for her, those 15% will get "stretched" to 18%. And other things like that, "stretching" for demographics, ... that both undermines the credibility of polls (since they do lots of tweaking on people's answers, and the scientific value of those tweakings are very variable), but also (which is the purpose) tend to compensate for the "people are ashamed to say they vote Le Pen" effect, and also somewhat for the "unemployed people are hard to reach so hard to know how they vote" effect too.

[Kilobugya]

"Latest" in inverted commas, no? I'd love to see up-to-date estimates of how the legislative elections will go, but I haven't seen any recent ones. If you know of some, by all means!

It's very hard to poll for our legislative elections, because of the electoral system, it's not a proportional vote (which is relatively easy to poll for), but 577 "circonscriptions", with a two-round majority vote in each, and complicated rules for who can be on the run-off (not just the top two, you can have run-off with 3 or occasionally 4 contesters). And even the candidates will vary from place to place, especially with candidates like Macron who are big unknowns.

Also, the result of the presidential election greatly influence the outcome of legislative elections, many people vote for the one who just won (be it because they want stability, or because they like to be on the winner's side, or whatever).

Also, while we're all talking polling uncertainty... according to the latest Opinionway poll, a 5% swing away from Le Pen could be enough to not see her in the second round at all. I wouldn't even count her in just yet either.

Yes, the scores between the "top 3" are quite close, and with almost two months left, the very chaotic state of French politics, half of the voters saying they are not sure for whom they'll vote, the "money stealing" cases of Fillon and Le Pen, the big unknown that is Macron, nothing sure about a possible Hamon-Mélenchon alliance, ... it's very, very hard to predict the result of those elections.

[Neu Leonstein]

Also, the result of the presidential election greatly influence the outcome of legislative elections, many people vote for the one who just won (be it because they want stability, or because they like to be on the winner's side, or whatever).

Yeah, I know how the system works - it's just that the same mechanical difficulty Le Pen faces with a two-round election is replicated hundreds of times with the legislative ones. The question is how independent the individual elections might be: after a couple of months of Le Pen, with all the drama, scandal, protest and so on that would follow, I think it would be even clearer that all parties beside FN would work together in the various seats and so it would be even harder for FN candidates to beat their first round result in the second.

I'm in the cohabitation camp if she wins. But then, maybe I'm an optimist, who knows. Would be good to see some more data-based predictions, but it's still too early for that I suppose.

[Socialist Nordia]

French presidential candidate Macron to meet Merkel

[Kilobugya]

I'm in the cohabitation camp if she wins. But then, maybe I'm an optimist, who knows. Would be good to see some more data-based predictions, but it's still too early for that I suppose.

Oh yes, it's very likely FN won't have absolute majority even if she wins the presidency. But it's very hard to predict if she'll have 50 seats, 100 seats or 200 seats (on the 577 we have).

[Shrillland]

I'm in the cohabitation camp if she wins. But then, maybe I'm an optimist, who knows. Would be good to see some more data-based predictions, but it's still too early for that I suppose.

Oh yes, it's very likely FN won't have absolute majority even if she wins the presidency. But it's very hard to predict if she'll have 50 seats, 100 seats or 200 seats (on the 577 we have).

True, the projection I was looking at is from last June, so it's hard to tell now.

[Greed and Death]

Just going to leave this here.

[Shrillland]

Just going to leave this here.

(Image)

erm....no. France's left should focus on helping the Socialists at least hold the Assembly rather than sign a petition like this.

[The Portland Territory]

I'm still disappointed in all of you. You want Le Pen, Macron, Fillon, but NONE OF YOU WANT OBAMA?!?!!?

HOW DARE YOU?!

SIGN IT!!!

[Geilinor]

Fillon is done. First the scandal and investigation and now inflammatory talk about "quasi civil war". His campaign is never going to get back on track.

[San Lumen]

so are French opinions polls reliable? All signs point to Macron crushing Le Pen in the runoff. If he wins would be a safe assessment to say the alt right is not rising in Europe?

She'll get 40% of the vote according to current polls, representing a MASSIVE swing to the nationalist faction.

Remember also the polling data on these issues has tended to underestimate this group. I wouldn't count her out just yet.

after the massive polling miss in the 2016 US election i have zero confidence in polling anymore.

[Alozia]

She'll get 40% of the vote according to current polls, representing a MASSIVE swing to the nationalist faction.

Remember also the polling data on these issues has tended to underestimate this group. I wouldn't count her out just yet.

after the massive polling miss in the 2016 US election i have zero confidence in polling anymore.

Popular vote polling wasn't wrong though. EC polling was.

[Minoa]

She'll get 40% of the vote according to current polls, representing a MASSIVE swing to the nationalist faction.

Remember also the polling data on these issues has tended to underestimate this group. I wouldn't count her out just yet.

after the massive polling miss in the 2016 US election i have zero confidence in polling anymore.

Electoral College is very complicated and easy to get it wrong. In France the maths is a lot straightforward.

When Votamatic got it right in the US Election of 2012, everyone was knocking on their doors asking how they did it.

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Source: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/j ... 11226.html (Left-Centre)

Another reason I have a long-standing dim view of the National Front: his opinion on the Roma community is simply atrocious.

[Crzeikstan]

Le Pen for France! Oorah!

[The Conez Imperium]

Le Pen for France! Oorah!

(Image)

Hmm...a propaganda piece supporting Le Pen written in English.

Lol.