French presidential primaries

[Novus America]

Well this is France, the FN like all parties there is corrupt to the core, and engaged in all sorts of shady money stuff.

That may be so, but you don't just raid offices without some sort of pretext, and have they released that yet or?

I am not sure, but I agree it seems to be politically motivated at this point. They pretext is the government hates the FN most likely.
Sure the FN does shady stuff, but this is pot meet kettle.

[Kilobugya]

According to the BBC, police are searching Le Pen's party HQ.

Aside from a 4chan account and some kidnapped frogs, what are they intending to find?

Marine Le Pen and the others FN member of europarl are accused (by the europarl itself, among others) to have paid people with europarl funds while they didn't do any europarl-related work, which is illegal (all MEP have access to funds with which they can employ people to assist them, but they have to assist them in their work in the europarl, not for anything else).

[Herskerstad]

Aside from a 4chan account and some kidnapped frogs, what are they intending to find?

Marine Le Pen and the others FN member of europarl are accused (by the europarl itself, among others) to have paid people with europarl funds while they didn't do any europarl-related work, which is illegal (all MEP have access to funds with which they can employ people to assist them, but they have to assist them in their work in the europarl, not for anything else).

Is that the established rationale for the raid or one of the potential justifications?

[Herskerstad]

That may be so, but you don't just raid offices without some sort of pretext, and have they released that yet or?

I am not sure, but I agree it seems to be politically motivated at this point. They pretext is the government hates the FN most likely.

See, I don't know if Le Pen is akin to Bishop Tutu or Pablo Escobar in her office side, but it would be a kindergarden level mistake if they used their HQ for shady dealings.

[Frank Zipper]

According to the BBC, police are searching Le Pen's party HQ.

Aside from a 4chan account and some kidnapped frogs, what are they intending to find?

Evidence of a similar money to family for work they don't do arrangement I believe.

[Kilobugya]

Is that the established rationale for the raid or one of the potential justifications?

You know it's not the like the police can raid anyone with no justification - they need a warrant, delivered by a judge, and the reason a judge (who doesn't obey to the government) delivered one is the ongoing inquiry, started by the europarl, on FN abusing public money.

Wait - now that I wrote I remember we are _still_ under "state of emergency", and therefore the police _can_ raid anyone's house at any time as long as they think someone is linked to "terrorism". But I very much doubt that would be the reason invoke, and if it is, well, it would be karma payback, the FN have been very much supporters of that "state of emergency" if it bites them back, they deserved it But seriously I very much doubt it.

[Herskerstad]

Is that the established rationale for the raid or one of the potential justifications?

You know it's not the like the police can raid anyone with no justification - they need a warrant, delivered by a judge, and the reason a judge (who doesn't obey to the government) delivered one is the ongoing inquiry, started by the europarl, on FN abusing public money.

Wait - now that I wrote I remember we are _still_ under "state of emergency", and therefore the police _can_ raid anyone's house at any time as long as they think someone is linked to "terrorism". But I very much doubt that would be the reason invoke, and if it is, well, it would be karma payback, the FN have been very much supporters of that "state of emergency" if it bites them back, they deserved it But seriously I very much doubt it.

Karma? Unless they find 4 immigrant slaves and a signed copy of Mein Kampf, and, given that shady politics in France is not a new thing the two places one do not hide stuff is A - Their Home, and B - Their freaking HQ/Offices, she is going to have a field day with this.

It's like a Trojan horse, but instead of being filled with illegal immigrants it's filled with free sympathy to convince the remaining skeptics.

[Novus America]

You know it's not the like the police can raid anyone with no justification - they need a warrant, delivered by a judge, and the reason a judge (who doesn't obey to the government) delivered one is the ongoing inquiry, started by the europarl, on FN abusing public money.

Wait - now that I wrote I remember we are _still_ under "state of emergency", and therefore the police _can_ raid anyone's house at any time as long as they think someone is linked to "terrorism". But I very much doubt that would be the reason invoke, and if it is, well, it would be karma payback, the FN have been very much supporters of that "state of emergency" if it bites them back, they deserved it But seriously I very much doubt it.

Karma? Unless they find 4 immigrant slaves and a signed copy of Mein Kampf, and, given that shady politics in France is not a new thing the two places one do not hide stuff is A - Their Home, and B - Their freaking HQ/Offices, she is going to have a field day with this.

It's like a Trojan horse, but instead of being filled with illegal immigrants it's filled with free sympathy to convince the remaining skeptics.

Yes unless they find something which is unlikely it will backfire. I am sure the FN is not stupid enough to keep incriminating stuff there, or even in France. Probably in Cyprus or the Cyamans or something.

[Kilobugya]

Karma? Unless they find 4 immigrant slaves and a signed copy of Mein Kampf, and, given that shady politics in France is not a new thing the two places one do not hide stuff is A - Their Home, and B - Their freaking HQ/Offices, she is going to have a field day with this.

It's more likely what they _wont_ find, ie, any of the normal documents you would found if they were really employed as parliamentary assistant to FN MEP, reports, analysis, tasks asked to do, ... but maybe they'll find some incriminating documents, showing that they worked on things non-related to europarl.

[Washington Resistance Army]

According to the BBC, police are searching Le Pen's party HQ.

Hmm, that could get interesting.

[Novus America]

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/arti ... way-voters

The latest. Le Pen is gaining after the riots and Louvre. Macron and Fillon tied again after Macron said some stupid stuff an now everyone is targeting him.

Hamon and Melechon killing each other when their only hope is working together.
Still a long way to go. But sure to stay interesting. French politics is completely dysfunctional but always entertaining.

[Novus America]

Karma? Unless they find 4 immigrant slaves and a signed copy of Mein Kampf, and, given that shady politics in France is not a new thing the two places one do not hide stuff is A - Their Home, and B - Their freaking HQ/Offices, she is going to have a field day with this.

It's more likely what they _wont_ find, ie, any of the normal documents you would found if they were really employed as parliamentary assistant to FN MEP, reports, analysis, tasks asked to do, ... but maybe they'll find some incriminating documents, showing that they worked on things non-related to europarl.

And then you can maybe fine them for improper record keeping or something minor while the FN sells it as political targeting. It will not work, and most likely backfire.

[Ferak]

If Le Pen wins the EU is finished.

jk, but it will be a serious blow.

[Neu Leonstein]

It's very unlikely for Hamon and Mélenchon to ally, they have way too many difference in strategies and vision on how to do politics.

Well, that's what I figured. But I suppose if you have (damage) = (low probability of alliance) * (higher probability of Le Pen win) * (almost infinite amount of fuck-up if Le Pen wins), then any change in those probabilities is relevant.

As for markets "dumping French bonds", if they really did that over Hamon and Mélenchon vaguely speaking to each other, that's yet another proof on how totally irrational and inefficient markets are

Well, I was counting on it. But that's beside the point. The nice thing about spending actual time in financial markets actually doing trades is that you get a much better understanding of how markets do their thing in general. Large financial markets are unusually good in processing large amounts of disparate information (quantitative and qualitative) into prices. But the way they do that is via the "1,000 monkeys with typewriters" approach. For everyone who sold French bonds on Friday, there was by definition someone who bought them. And all those individual people were each trying to make sense of some comment Hamon made in a radio interview. Some of them will have drawn the right conclusion, some of them the wrong one. Then everyone met up, some wanting to sell, others ready to buy. And the ratio between the two was such that the market only cleared at a lower price (or equivalently a higher yield).

And this is then also influenced by just plain mechanical factors, like people putting in certain stop prices to limit their losses. Say lots of people pick 110 as a stop price, and if it goes below that they want to limit their losses by selling the bond they own. All of a sudden, once the price gets to that point, lots of extra sellers join in and can cause little jumps in the price.

Image

That image is from today, by the way. People not liking today's OpinionWay poll. Rational? Efficient? I think it is almost impossible to argue that it is for any individual involved in this. But in aggregate... if you think that it would be possible to come up with a better price more quickly, you almost have to believe that there must be someone (or something) that could just continuously make money in the market as it exists now. The incentives are there, but no one is doing it... so that's circumstantial, but pretty convincing, evidence that this person or method probably doesn't exist.

[Herskerstad]

Karma? Unless they find 4 immigrant slaves and a signed copy of Mein Kampf, and, given that shady politics in France is not a new thing the two places one do not hide stuff is A - Their Home, and B - Their freaking HQ/Offices, she is going to have a field day with this.

It's more likely what they _wont_ find, ie, any of the normal documents you would found if they were really employed as parliamentary assistant to FN MEP, reports, analysis, tasks asked to do, ... but maybe they'll find some incriminating documents, showing that they worked on things non-related to europarl.

It will be hard to make a particularly compelling case as to what they don't find, as such things have no requirement of being stored in a specific location, and I won't entertain the idea that they'd plant anything either. That would be beyond the pale.

But if they don't find anything, this will be to the benefit of the FN, and it's not as if the race won't be a contested one.

[Union of Despotistan]

I've been following Front National and other right wing parties in Europe for almost a decade now...
And never I've found such acharnement toward a political party that what I see the from EU toward Front National.

It's a disgrace to even call the EU democratic.
They vehemently attack and silence any opposition strong enough to become a viable opposition.

This system is authoritarian and non-democratic. It's so obvious it hurts.

I really hope FN and Le Pen wins this year so they can kick them out of France and start rebuilding.

[Herskerstad]

I've been following Front National and other right wing parties in Europe for almost a decade now...
And never I've found such acharnement toward a political party that what I see the from EU toward Front National.

It's a disgrace to even call the EU democratic.
They vehemently attack and silence any opposition strong enough to become a viable opposition.

This system is authoritarian and non-democratic. It's so obvious it hurts.

I really hope FN and Le Pen wins this year so they can kick them out of France and start rebuilding.

A Frexit and Nexit will probably be enough for the union to come down.

[Neu Leonstein]

They vehemently attack and silence any opposition strong enough to become a viable opposition.

...he says, while talking about the party set to win the plurality of votes in the upcoming first round of the election.

[Neu Leonstein]

A Frexit and Nexit will probably be enough for the union to come down.

Yeah... imagine though, if Le Pen wins the presidency, but you get a cohabitation government. Now, I don't think the National Assembly would be required to agree to a constitutional referendum. But imagine that they did (or that Le Pen pushed through a legislative referendum instead, like De Gaulle in '62) - and it lost!

Opinion polls are neither here nor there, I suppose, but my understanding was that while there are lots of French people who have an unfavourable opinion of the EU, it is a much smaller share of them who think France should leave. Le Pen might win based on her Islamisation campaign, or because she promises old people even more money. But that's not the same as a carte blanche to leave the EU.

Anyway, what fun that would be. Sixth Republic territory.

[San Lumen]

A Frexit and Nexit will probably be enough for the union to come down.

Yeah... imagine though, if Le Pen wins the presidency, but you get a cohabitation government. Now, I don't think the National Assembly would be required to agree to a constitutional referendum. But imagine that they did (or that Le Pen pushed through a legislative referendum instead, like De Gaulle in '62) - and it lost!

Opinion polls are neither here nor there, I suppose, but my understanding was that while there are lots of French people who have an unfavourable opinion of the EU, it is a much smaller share of them who think France should leave. Le Pen might win based on her Islamisation campaign, or because she promises old people even more money. But that's not the same as a carte blanche to leave the EU.

Anyway, what fun that would be. Sixth Republic territory.

Polls are showing she won't. But i must admit after the 2016 election in the US i have little faith in polls anymore.

[Herskerstad]

A Frexit and Nexit will probably be enough for the union to come down.

Yeah... imagine though, if Le Pen wins the presidency, but you get a cohabitation government. Now, I don't think the National Assembly would be required to agree to a constitutional referendum. But imagine that they did (or that Le Pen pushed through a legislative referendum instead, like De Gaulle in '62) - and it lost!

Opinion polls are neither here nor there, I suppose, but my understanding was that while there are lots of French people who have an unfavourable opinion of the EU, it is a much smaller share of them who think France should leave. Le Pen might win based on her Islamisation campaign, or because she promises old people even more money. But that's not the same as a carte blanche to leave the EU.

Anyway, what fun that would be. Sixth Republic territory.

Sure, if it did lose then she should follow the will of the people and instead negotiate more preferable staying terms, or even seek to make EU's leadership more democratically accountable by calling for federal elections so that it won't just be a quasi-council oligarchy at the top and have some popular representation.

It's the same way I feel for labour in the UK, but flipped. They should seek to get as favourable a terms in regards to close co-operation. And for either side, maybe a decade or two down the line they could try again. No need to be fatalistic about it. If the EU ends up as an unsuccessful model then that does not mean some new and more desirable body could take it's place.

[Zurkerx]

I am not sure if Le Pen can win. France has two rounds of voting (that's if no one reaches a simple majority). Of course, polls must be taken with a grain of salt but, her sizeable minority can't carry her in the second round.

[Neu Leonstein]

Polls are showing she won't. But i must admit after the 2016 election in the US i have little faith in polls anymore.

Oh yeah, I think it's the mechanics of the process more so than just the polls that make it less likely in my view. It's a smart system in the sense that it gives the voter a second chance. You really have to want a Le Pen presidency to vote for her twice (and the same to get an FN member in the National Assembly). Sure, that'll be the case for lots of people. But the kind of "fuck the establishment" protest voters... it asks more of them.

All that said though, 2016 wasn't so much about how polls are useless (I mean, the outcomes were within margins of errors... that just wasn't communicated well by the people writing about them), but about intellectual humility when talking about uncertain outcomes. Lots of things could happen that see Le Pen win. I personally don't like the look of those riots, for example.

[Neu Leonstein]

Sure, if it did lose then she should follow the will of the people and instead negotiate more preferable staying terms, or even seek to make EU's leadership more democratically accountable by calling for federal elections so that it won't just be a quasi-council oligarchy at the top and have some popular representation.

You mean, because the European Parliament and the European Council aren't enough direct representation yet? I truly don't understand why this whole "undemocratic" thing persists. Voters choose their own national governments democratically. Those form the European Council. Voters directly elect their members to the European Parliament, democratically. And then the Council and the Parliament choose a Commission, which functions as a cabinet, with similar rights and responsibilities as national cabinets (though arguably with the Council as an extra limitation on its powers).

It's a little bit complicated, granted. But this idea that it is somehow undemocratic just sounds like bad marketing on their part. Or rather like a few decades of national governments trying to push responsibility for unpopular policies to someone else (despite having put them together at the European level).

[Major-Tom]

Fillon is making a slight comeback, it seems.