French presidential primaries

[Internationalist Bastard]

So how close is France to electing their nationalist?

[Kilobugya]

I like Melenchon's ideology and policy *sniff*, but he feeds into the crazed euroscepticism that is about to destroy Europe. Hamon seems like a better choice, but he is less experienced and has a low profile, if Melenchon were able to implement his economic and welfare policies while the legislature stopped his Europe Destructionist agenda from gaining any ground, that would be an ideal situation

The issue is that the current structure and rules of EU, as well as current policies of ECB, are not compatible with a left-wing economic and welfare program. So we _have_ to defy current EU, but not leave it, defy it from inside to change it. Which is what Mélenchon is offering. Pretending to implement left-wing economics within current EU rules, as Hamon does, comes from the best intentions in the world, but is not realistic.

[Pergamon Politeia]

So how close is France to electing their nationalist?

more far than what poll small propaganda broadcasts, I insist.

[Internationalist Bastard]

So how close is France to electing their nationalist?

more far than what poll small propaganda broadcasts, I insist.

That's what we said about Britain and America

[Union of Despotistan]

So if Le Pen wins and if Wilders controlled the Netherlands how would this work? She wants Jews to renounce their Israeli citizenship yet Geert Wilders is a very strong Zionist as is Trump.

This is an interesting question.
To me Geert is a fraud; controlled opposition by the zionists. It's actually quite obvious.
The FN probably became infiltrated after Jean-Marie left.
UKIP is strongly pro Israel so as Trump is.

I'm starting to think the globalist and the ones who really control this world are simply usurping and corrupting the political party and candidates from this growing nationalism we see worldwide so they wont lose their grip.

[Pergamon Politeia]

more far than what poll small propaganda broadcasts, I insist.

That's what we said about Britain and America

that s a point.
I m closer to France whatsoever, and precisely, that s what common people said about America, only.
British media-lead discussion seemed to me much inappropriate to compare with, Uk had never been part of European Union, properly, Churchill himself - who, right, had different stance on the Eu; he said the duty to apply Eu to aid it, still he remarked Uk wasn t going to partecipate mainly, and possibly a day to abandon.
Not similar thing to abandon the Eu for Uk, and for other Countries wich are properly "European", geographically and historically and politically.

That is the mistake "our mind" made about America, still a single case doesn t make a precedent, it can be due to lack of knowledge. And I live away the opposite side of Atlantic Ocean, compared with Americans, (I "know" American politcs throught reading of books, mainly Toqueville voyages, written in 1840 A D, and politico.us articles and Bloomberg, so, not precise knowledge we say) so we have more quality and common people infos coming from France, and so don t feel as a "mistake" that bet about America.

About Le Pen clan: It seems "possible", still greatly, "overwhelming" I would say improbable. thank you for conversation.

[Novus America]

So if Le Pen wins and if Wilders controlled the Netherlands how would this work? She wants Jews to renounce their Israeli citizenship yet Geert Wilders is a very strong Zionist as is Trump.

This is an interesting question.
To me Geert is a fraud; controlled opposition by the zionists. It's actually quite obvious.
The FN probably became infiltrated after Jean-Marie left.
UKIP is strongly pro Israel so as Trump is.

I'm starting to think the globalist and the ones who really control this world are simply usurping and corrupting the political party and candidates from this growing nationalism we see worldwide so they wont lose their grip.

How is being pro Israel opposed to nationalism? Israel is a nation, and a nationalist one at that. Israel is at least under its current government nationalist and not globalist.
In fact globalists tend to be harsh critics of Israel.

I do not see how being pro Israel means "infiltrated". Why would Trump and Wilders not be pro Israel? Israel has a right wing, nationalist government with many common interests such as opposition to the government in Iran. It would be nonsensical for them to NOT be pro-Israel.

But yes, Le Pen's policies differ very greatly from Trump and Wilders in many respects.

[Baltenstein]

This is an interesting question.
To me Geert is a fraud; controlled opposition by the zionists. It's actually quite obvious.
The FN probably became infiltrated after Jean-Marie left.
UKIP is strongly pro Israel so as Trump is.

I'm starting to think the globalist and the ones who really control this world are simply usurping and corrupting the political party and candidates from this growing nationalism we see worldwide so they wont lose their grip.

How is being pro Israel opposed to nationalism? Israel is a nation, and a nationalist one at that. Israel is at least under its current government nationalist and not globalist.
In fact globalists tend to be harsh critics of Israel.

I do not see how being pro Israel means "infiltrated". Why would Trump and Wilders not be pro Israel? Israel has a right wing, nationalist government with many common interests such as opposition to the government in Iran. It would be nonsensical for them to NOT be pro-Israel.

Something something Jewish conspiracy something something

[Major-Tom]

So how close is France to electing their nationalist?

Eh, 25% chance, maybe? She needs 50% of the vote, it'll be hard.

[Major-Tom]

So if Le Pen wins and if Wilders controlled the Netherlands how would this work? She wants Jews to renounce their Israeli citizenship yet Geert Wilders is a very strong Zionist as is Trump.

This is an interesting question.
To me Geert is a fraud; controlled opposition by the zionists. It's actually quite obvious.
The FN probably became infiltrated after Jean-Marie left.
UKIP is strongly pro Israel so as Trump is.

I'm starting to think the globalist and the ones who really control this world are simply usurping and corrupting the political party and candidates from this growing nationalism we see worldwide so they wont lose their grip.

Zionism is good. The nationalists of Europe and America should side with Zionists, the group opposed to Islamism and supportive of defending pur values, such as free press, speech, assembly, religion, women's rights, LGBT rights, etc.

[Outer Sparta]

This is an interesting question.
To me Geert is a fraud; controlled opposition by the zionists. It's actually quite obvious.
The FN probably became infiltrated after Jean-Marie left.
UKIP is strongly pro Israel so as Trump is.

I'm starting to think the globalist and the ones who really control this world are simply usurping and corrupting the political party and candidates from this growing nationalism we see worldwide so they wont lose their grip.

How is being pro Israel opposed to nationalism? Israel is a nation, and a nationalist one at that. Israel is at least under its current government nationalist and not globalist.
In fact globalists tend to be harsh critics of Israel.

I do not see how being pro Israel means "infiltrated". Why would Trump and Wilders not be pro Israel? Israel has a right wing, nationalist government with many common interests such as opposition to the government in Iran. It would be nonsensical for them to NOT be pro-Israel.

But yes, Le Pen's policies differ very greatly from Trump and Wilders in many respects.

If Le Pen and Wilders get elected, they might have their squabbles.

[Vecherd]

So how close is France to electing their nationalist?

Pretty far away.

Brexit and Trump were both within the margin of error of polls. Ca 2% and 4% difference. So they should not be compared unless she gets a huuuge boost in polls before the election.

In the second round Le Pen is 30% behind Macron and 20% behind Fillon, thats a lot of margins of errors.

[Liriena]

So how close is France to electing their nationalist?

Pretty far away.

Brexit and Trump were both within the margin of error of polls. Ca 2% and 4% difference. So they should not be compared unless she gets a huuuge boost in polls before the election.

In the second round Le Pen is 30% behind Macron and 20% behind Fillon, thats a lot of margins of errors.

Indeed.

*breathes sigh of relief*

[Major-Tom]

So how close is France to electing their nationalist?

Pretty far away.

Brexit and Trump were both within the margin of error of polls. Ca 2% and 4% difference. So they should not be compared unless she gets a huuuge boost in polls before the election.

In the second round Le Pen is 30% behind Macron and 20% behind Fillon, thats a lot of margins of errors.

{10 % behind Fillon, 24% behind Macron}, though still a large difference.

[Vecherd]

Pretty far away.

Brexit and Trump were both within the margin of error of polls. Ca 2% and 4% difference. So they should not be compared unless she gets a huuuge boost in polls before the election.

In the second round Le Pen is 30% behind Macron and 20% behind Fillon, thats a lot of margins of errors.

{10 % behind Fillon, 24% behind Macron}, though still a large difference.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status ... 1458473985

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status ... 3881259008

These last ones I found says 26% and 18% respectively, of course they do change from pollster to pollster and date to date.

[Aelex]

Indeed.

*breathes sigh of relief*

Don't. Really.

The F.N's score is going to keep on raising and that will legitimate it more each time. The times it was used as a scare-crow by the two others political parties are long over.

[Kilobugya]

The F.N's score is going to keep on raising and that will legitimate it more each time. The times it was used as a scare-crow by the two others political parties are long over.

On the long term, perhaps. FN is very unlikely to win in 2017, and while it might have a chance in 2022, everything is so unstable everywhere, France, Europe, the world, that it's very hard to make such prognostics. Also the FN is getting tied more and more into affairs and judicial troubles, internal divisions, and less than stellar record from the cities they manage, so their progression is nothing but certain.

[Herskerstad]

The F.N's score is going to keep on raising and that will legitimate it more each time. The times it was used as a scare-crow by the two others political parties are long over.

On the long term, perhaps. FN is very unlikely to win in 2017, and while it might have a chance in 2022, everything is so unstable everywhere, France, Europe, the world, that it's very hard to make such prognostics. Also the FN is getting tied more and more into affairs and judicial troubles, internal divisions, and less than stellar record from the cities they manage, so their progression is nothing but certain.

If the opposition turns out to be Marcon, then I would be very surprised if the present numbers do not undergo a sea-change during the second rounds. The platform, like Brexit and the presidential platform, has an angry populace, a relatively disorganised left, and Le Pen has really not started banging the drums yet. Now if it is enough is an entirely valid question, and even then, if there is another incident then things could get very messy very quickly.

[Neu Leonstein]

Pretty far away.

Brexit and Trump were both within the margin of error of polls. Ca 2% and 4% difference. So they should not be compared unless she gets a huuuge boost in polls before the election.

In the second round Le Pen is 30% behind Macron and 20% behind Fillon, thats a lot of margins of errors.

Plus, Brexit hadn't ever been voted on before, and neither had a policy/personality package quite like that of Trump. So people who intended to vote for those but were worried about social stigma might have made it harder for pollsters ahead of time.

FN has been around since the 70s, and there've been plenty of elections using which pollsters could work out adjustments to deal with biases like that. So they've actually been pretty good at predicting FN's support in the polls. I've even heard claims that current polling results overstate FN's support because as the Overton Window has moved and the party has become more palatable in the mainstream, pollsters may still be applying some of the same techniques that they did before.

Anyway, any news on the Hamon-Melenchon tie-up? Markets dumped French bonds pretty hard on Friday on the news that the two had been talking, because Le Pen's best chance in the second round by far would be against a far-left candidate.

[Vecherd]

Pretty far away.

Brexit and Trump were both within the margin of error of polls. Ca 2% and 4% difference. So they should not be compared unless she gets a huuuge boost in polls before the election.

In the second round Le Pen is 30% behind Macron and 20% behind Fillon, thats a lot of margins of errors.

Plus, Brexit hadn't ever been voted on before, and neither had a policy/personality package quite like that of Trump. So people who intended to vote for those but were worried about social stigma might have made it harder for pollsters ahead of time.

FN has been around since the 70s, and there've been plenty of elections using which pollsters could work out adjustments to deal with biases like that. So they've actually been pretty good at predicting FN's support in the polls. I've even heard claims that current polling results overstate FN's support because as the Overton Window has moved and the party has become more palatable in the mainstream, pollsters may still be applying some of the same techniques that they did before.

Anyway, any news on the Hamon-Melenchon tie-up? Markets dumped French bonds pretty hard on Friday on the news that the two had been talking, because Le Pen's best chance in the second round by far would be against a far-left candidate.

Yeah that is true, Brexit was so uncertain they didnt even bother with an exit poll. Also the "shy Trump voter" is an interesting theory, his unexpected support came from groups that already supported him, in areas that already supported him, so it might not have been that people were afraid of social stigma of supporting Trump.

Yep. People say right-wing populists and the far-right are given lower support in polls than they actually have, but the fact is that its only because so many of these populist parties are so new that it has been hard. You've had that problem in Sweden and Italy, where the populist parties are newer and not weighted properly yet. While in countries like Austria and Norway, the FPÖ and FrP polling numbers are pretty spot on because these are older parties. And its the same with FN, its a old party and the polls were 0.1% in the 2012 election, and well within the margin of error in the EU election 2014 and the regional elecion 2015.

[Kilobugya]

Anyway, any news on the Hamon-Melenchon tie-up? Markets dumped French bonds pretty hard on Friday on the news that the two had been talking, because Le Pen's best chance in the second round by far would be against a far-left candidate.

It's very unlikely for Hamon and Mélenchon to ally, they have way too many difference in strategies and vision on how to do politics. As for markets "dumping French bonds", if they really did that over Hamon and Mélenchon vaguely speaking to each other, that's yet another proof on how totally irrational and inefficient markets are

[Frank Zipper]

According to the BBC, police are searching Le Pen's party HQ.

[Herskerstad]

According to the BBC, police are searching Le Pen's party HQ.

Aside from a 4chan account and some kidnapped frogs, what are they intending to find?

[Novus America]

According to the BBC, police are searching Le Pen's party HQ.

Aside from a 4chan account and some kidnapped frogs, what are they intending to find?

Well this is France, the FN like all parties there is corrupt to the core, and engaged in all sorts of shady money stuff.
Selective enforcement is a useful tool for political suppression.

The FN is corrupt, but also gets targeted more because the political establishment is against it.

I am not a fan of the FN, but you are going to have to beat them on the merits.

[Herskerstad]

Aside from a 4chan account and some kidnapped frogs, what are they intending to find?

Well this is France, the FN like all parties there is corrupt to the core, and engaged in all sorts of shady money stuff.

That may be so, but you don't just raid offices without some sort of pretext, and have they released that yet or?