French presidential primaries

[Major-Tom]

She'd have an easier time facing Fillon. The French are largely in favor of the welfare state and regulation. Fillon is a Thatcherite. LePen, despite her right wing social stances, is broadly center left economically, and could take a lot of PS voters who don't trust Fillon.

Economy and Immigration are the two most important issues for French voters this election, hence why its so strange.

True but Macron is currently ahead of Fillon and if polls are correct he crushes her Le Pen in the second round.

Very true.

If it was Fillon vs LePen, it'd be close. If it is Macron vs LePen, which seems likely, it'll likely be a 55-45 sorta result, with Macron in favor.

LePen said herself that she doesn't really expect a victory in 2017. She is using this as a stepping stone for a resounding 2022 victory. But after Trump, Brexit, and the almost Hofer victory, perhaps she is even beginning to think she has a shot now.

Same applies for Wilders, he likely knows he can't form a government this time around, but if the PVV continues to rise, they will be able to several years from now.

[Novus America]

I am sorry I joined the conversation later. Why is "France folds" not a possible outcome? Are we talking about a new president, there are some new political forces gaining power that won't fold in France or are you just theorising what would be the right thing to do?

We are talking of the (very hypothetical, sure) case where Mélenchon is elected. And France folding is not an option then for two reasons :

1. It's not just part of the culture of the French left, of "French Republicanism", to fold, and that goes all the way to the Jacobin during the French Revolution. We might be defeated by superior military strength, we might be slaughtered as we were more than once, but we don't fold - we didn't fold in 1793, we didn't fold in 1848, we didn't fold in 1871, we didn't fold during WW2, and so on. And unlike Miterrand or Hollande, who were/are just slightly left-leaning arrivistes, Mélenchon comes directly from that left tradition.

2. We have nothing to win by folding. The worst that can happen if we don't fold is the EU collapsing - and while it's a bad outcome, it's _still_ a better outcome that folding and complying forever to Merkel's colonial rule, on the long term. And unlike Greece, we can whistand the sort term is that were to happen. On the other hand, Germany and allies have everything to lose by breaking the EU, and not much to lose by accepting to negotiate on our very reasonable demands. It's just game theory and classical negotiation tactics, you put the opponent in a situation where not agreeing with you will harm them more than agreeing with you.

You really should just realize the fact that the EU is really an all or nothing thing. You take it as is or leave.

That's just historically wrong, just look at UK for the past decades - from the Tatcher era, it negotiated exceptions to EU treaties, it staid out of eurozone and Schengen, it didn't pay its full share to the EU budget, ... And when Cameron made its "brexit" referendum, he was able to negotiate even a few more of such exceptions in exchange of calling for a "yes" vote, because the EU leaders wanted to prevent a brexit, even if that meant giving more concessions to UK - UK that isn't an eurozone member, so a brexit would hurt EU much less than a frexit.

France folds is the only realistic outcome. And is certainly possible. In fact it is what is going to happen in real life! France doing what you want is as likely as me being president of the US. It can be fun to dream about what I would do. It is not realistic to expect it or say it is the only thing that can happen.

If Mélenchon is elected, it is going to happen. I admit it's not the likely outcome of the 2017 elections, but we were speaking in that hypothesis.

France is not going to do what it takes. And does not have the power or unity to do so, especially with its dysfunctional government structure and party system. Germany has more power, more unity, and a more functioninal government.

That's just ridiculous claim. Germany has much less of functional government than we do. And if Mélenchon comes to power, all this will be backed by a newly drafted Constitution, by a Constitutional Assembly, following a process similar to those of Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia - and we know that when a people is motivated through such a scheme, it doesn't fold, even Washington-controlled coup attempts collapsed there, and those are much less strong and robust than France is.

Printing your own money does nothing because who is going to want your money? I can print money off my printer. Problem is who is going to take it? Especially if you do it as a half measure, printing your own money in contravention of the treaties will mean the money has no legitimacy.

Banque de France _is_ currently printing euros. We have printing press printing legitimate euros. If we use them in "contravention of the treaties", because they cut the normal financing "in contravention of the treaties" too, what can happen ? They can refuse to accept our perfectly valid euros - but that would completely destroy the credibility of the whole euro, which as a fiat currency, has only has much value as its credibility, so they would destroy the euro. And if they refuse French euros to pay for import, they litterally stop trade in most of EU - we have an almost central place in EU, we trade massively with all major eurozone members. Not accepting our currency anymore would mean the end of the single market.

They have no weapon they can use against us without harming themselves as much, and without taking a very huge risk of breaking the eurozone - which for us would still be better outcome than folding, while for them it would be a much worse outcome than accepting our very reasonable demands. We are not demanding a EU-wide nationalization of banks, energy, transport, ... nor an EU-wide universal healthcare nor an EU-wide corporate tax nor ... which are all things we want. We are demanding much more reasonable things, like allowing ECB to finance _withing the Maastricht criteria limit_ member states, or allowing us to keep our public services for train and energy without any EU "liberalisation" directives.

And more than just Ireland requires a referendum but really do you think you will get people to unanimously agree? The problem with the EU is it is simply not designed to do what you want.

No, only Ireland requires a referendum - Lisbon treaty, no referendum but Ireland, "fiscal compact" no referendum but Ireland, ... And "unanimously agree" in EU doesn't really work that way, basically the "powerful countries" decide, the rest negotiate tiny details and agree - it's unfortunate, and it's part of what we want to change in the EU, but it's how it is. If Germany folds, everyone else will.

Well when you create a hypothetical, were magically you get whatever you want sure. But then you can say anything. It is pure fantasy.
But the real world does not work that what.

Mélenchon will not win, even if he did he could not get through the Constitutional changes in France you you want and need. Sure if he won and his party won a supermajority they could do a lot more, but the chance of that happening is a likely as me becoming president. Again pure fantasy.

We can simply say none of what you are proposing can realistically, nor will actually happen.
We know in real life France is just going to keep being Merkel's good and obedient little doggy. See I am not an advocate for Europe's currently monetary policies. I am against them. But I realize you are stuck with them. You already gave up so much of your power to the Germans, and it is not coming back. Germany was much more successful and taking and holding France as a de facto protectorate this time, without firing a single gun. What is the best way for Germany to take France? Easy, all they have to do is ask nicely. Sure, I am using some hyperbole their, but certainly much of your policy is no longer you own, and you can no longer control it.

Germany will continue to control your monetary policy, and you France will continue to obey.

Macron will be president most likely, if not the only other possibilities are Fillon or Le Pen.

Though funny you cite Venezuela as a model, they are a complete wreck.

[Kilobugya]

Mélenchon will not win, even if he did he could not get through the Constitutional changes in France you you want and need.

Sure he would, exactly like in Venezuela, Ecuador or Bolivia, through a referendum. The President has the power to call for a referendum for constitutional changes, or for a Constitutional Assembly, and he would use it. And if he won, he would very very likely gets that referendum through, it's exceptional for a president to be elected and then lose a referendum a couple of weeks/months afterwards.

So really what is there to discuss? We can simply say none of what you are proposing can realistically, nor will actually happen.

The probability of Mélenchon being elected is irrelevant when discussing if Mélenchon's proposals are serious, coherent, ... because of course his proposals are conditional to him winning the election. You cannot say to a candidate "your proposals are not reasonable because you would need to win to apply them and you won't" that's not intellectually honest. I was explaining what are Mélenchon's proposal for dealing with the EU, and they were very realistic and reasonable (and I would say, the only reasonable ones), and saying "but he won't win" is not a valid counter-argument.

Macron will be president most likely, if not the only other possibilities are Fillon or Le Pen.

Fillon is dead. Le Pen's chances of winning are as small if not smaller than the ones of Mélenchon. Macron is most likely to win for now, but a lot of Macron is a bubble. Bayrou might win if he goes. The one who will replace Fillon might if Fillon resigns early enough. Hamon could win if, close to the election, he's far ahead of Mélenchon, he makes some significant concessions to Mélenchon and Mélenchon resigns to give him a chance. Mélenchon could win if a social movement or new economical crisis burst before the election, or if he manages to get ahead of Hamon and then Hamon resigns to give him a chance. The situation is so tensed, heated and unprecedented that it's very hard to make any prediction. And I'll defend anyway the candidate that has the most coherent program to get us out of the austerity death trap, and that's Mélenchon.

[Baltenstein]

The best way out of "the austerity deathtrap", as you call it, is to become competitive as a state and an economy, produce surpluses, and create a safety net by your own efforts. Then you can raise salaries, pensions, benefits and whatever. If and when you are able to afford it.

Everything else is nonsense. To think you can somehow scare the rest of the Eurozone into compliance with whiny threats and racist stereotypes, while at the same time causing economic damage and capital flights to your own country, is pure delusion. Nevermind the fact that the French themselves would disapprove of these tactics too. I very much doubt that the French electorate is going to see its living standards deteriorate so that Mélenchon can play Maquis. In Greece, Syriza will get absolutely roasted at the next elections. Because people voted for Tsipras hoping that life would get better, but instead life now is much worse. People watched in horror and disapproval when Tsipras and Co. started to flirt with Nicolas Maduro, because the thought of Greece turning into Venezuela is not actually inspiring. It's revolting. The Greek citizens don't give a fuck about the Tsipras government giving itself patts on the back on what resiliant resistance fighters against the ebul EU they are. They are going to kick them out of office full force, and the French citizens would to the same with Mélenchon.

Germany and allies have everything to lose by breaking the EU

What makes you think that a breakup of the EU would hurt Germany much more than France and Southern Europe? Where do you think all the capital is going to flow in the (hopefully never happening) event of a breakup of the EU: Into Germany's new hard currency Deutschmark economy, or into the paper money economies of Southern Europe? Do you realize that by breaking up the Eurozone, the average Greek's purchasing power would be devastatingly crippled (due to the massive devaluation of his currency) while the average German's purchasing power would multiply a dozenfold, due to the revaluation of his currency?
If the Eurozone was to break up, the exact same scenario would happen that actually motivated Mitterand to force Helmut Kohl to accept the common currency in the first place - wealthy Germans simply buying all of impoverished peripheral Europe with their uber-hard currency.

[Theodorex]

No, it's not a real solution either. Us doing so unilaterally would be hassle and would make our new currency target of speculative attacks on day 1, and capital evasion before. The best way is to fix the euro - but that means coercing the rest of the eurozone to negotiate if they refuse to negotiate when asked.

No speculative attacks in floating exchange rate currencies. Speculators attack fixed exchange rates only. There is no point of attacking floating exchange rate currency. To me it sounds the most desirable thing to do. I know the left is massively against It. Euro has become leftist TINA.

Thanks for the information about French politics, I really don't know that much about It. Looks like I am putting my money on Italy and Grillo now.

[Novus America]

Mélenchon will not win, even if he did he could not get through the Constitutional changes in France you you want and need.

Sure he would, exactly like in Venezuela, Ecuador or Bolivia, through a referendum. The President has the power to call for a referendum for constitutional changes, or for a Constitutional Assembly, and he would use it. And if he won, he would very very likely gets that referendum through, it's exceptional for a president to be elected and then lose a referendum a couple of weeks/months afterwards.

So really what is there to discuss? We can simply say none of what you are proposing can realistically, nor will actually happen.

The probability of Mélenchon being elected is irrelevant when discussing if Mélenchon's proposals are serious, coherent, ... because of course his proposals are conditional to him winning the election. You cannot say to a candidate "your proposals are not reasonable because you would need to win to apply them and you won't" that's not intellectually honest. I was explaining what are Mélenchon's proposal for dealing with the EU, and they were very realistic and reasonable (and I would say, the only reasonable ones), and saying "but he won't win" is not a valid counter-argument.

Macron will be president most likely, if not the only other possibilities are Fillon or Le Pen.

Fillon is dead. Le Pen's chances of winning are as small if not smaller than the ones of Mélenchon. Macron is most likely to win for now, but a lot of Macron is a bubble. Bayrou might win if he goes. The one who will replace Fillon might if Fillon resigns early enough. Hamon could win if, close to the election, he's far ahead of Mélenchon, he makes some significant concessions to Mélenchon and Mélenchon resigns to give him a chance. Mélenchon could win if a social movement or new economical crisis burst before the election, or if he manages to get ahead of Hamon and then Hamon resigns to give him a chance. The situation is so tensed, heated and unprecedented that it's very hard to make any prediction. And I'll defend anyway the candidate that has the most coherent program to get us out of the austerity death trap, and that's Mélenchon.

Odd to cite Venezuela, the party taking control using often corrupt an authoritarian means to gain power, then ruining the country altogether. Not a model to follow.

And for a policy to be viable, it still must be realistic, Mélenchon's are not. By saying what he plans to do, Germany already knows how to use him. And he would not have the ability to have a united France, it is very rare that such sweeping changes get made in France. You grossly overestimate the position of France and underestimate German resolve and control. They can hurt you more than you can hurt them.

Greece to over estimated and overplayed their hand while showing it to the Germans. France is bigger and stronger, but not big or strong enough.

Germany simply has more power than France does. France is stuck. The ship has already sailed, Germany owns you now.

The only way to escape it is not via monetary policy, or printing money, none of which produce real value.
You have to start making more competitive goods. Get your country working again. It is not about printing or borrowing money. It is about producing value.
First you have to strengthen your hand before you can play. Build a stronger more independent economy first, before starting a fight with Germany you at sure to lose.

Make it where Germany needs you more than you need them. Gather up the other EU countries behind your cause, somehow get them to agree, and maybe just maybe you can fix the EU. But I doubt you can.
You are stuck with it as it is honestly. It will not change for you, it will change you to suit it.
Germany can collapse you economy and buy up the remains if they need too. And they will if they have to.

The austerity trap you built, then willing walked into. Now you have no real way out. Austerity is not so much a policy, as it is a consequence of mistakes.

[Kilobugya]

The best way out of "the austerity deathtrap", as you call it, is to become competitive as a state and an economy, produce surpluses, and create a safety net by your own efforts. Then you can raise salaries, pensions, benefits and whatever. If and when you are able to afford it.

That's utter nonsense. First, the whole "competitive" thing is just ideology, and can't work. You can't be "competitive" with countries paying their workers misery for insanely long working hours in terrible environemental or safety conditions without doing the same. It's, like being "competitive" on taxes, a downward spiral that can only lead to your population suffering more and more.

Second, there is no way you can become "competitive" out of austerity - the only path to so-called "competitiveness", admitting this is even desirable, that doesn't involve turning your country into a giant sweatshop involves massive automation and huge infrastructure - which is the exact opposite of what austerity does. You need to massively _invest_ in education, infrastructure, industry, ... which is exactly the opposite of what austerity does.

To think you can somehow scare the rest of the Eurozone into compliance with whiny threats and racist stereotypes

Racist stereotypes ? Who is the one saying that half of Europe are lazy bastard who deserve to suffer, live in poverty, and see their children die in the cold and be deprived of education ? I want everyone to live decently, from Finland to Greece, from Spain to Germany. And that means _investing_ in education, in healthcare, in infrastructure, and that means attacking the income gap, stopping a tiny minority of ultrarich from plundering everything for their insane profits. I'm an universalist, the exact opposite of a racist. Being racist is saying it's fair and normal for Greeks or Spanish to live in poverty.

while at the same time causing economic damage

Austerity is what is doing enormous damage, economic and human. It's a crime against humanity. Every single child that goes unfed, unsheltered, uncured, uneducated is a crime against all humanity, as well as a terrible economic waste. Every billion of euros created by ECB to feed the speculative bubble of banksters, while not being to build infrastructure, educate, feed and shelter people is both a crime against humanity and a terrible economical waste. Every pound of coal, gas or oil burned in fossil plants because we "can't afford" to use renewable or nuclear is wreaking havoc to the climate (for countless economical and human damage), and to the health of people breathing it, accounting for hundred of thousand of deaths and enormous economical costs in healthcare. And so on.

Nevermind the fact that the French themselves would disapprove of these tactics too. I very much doubt that the French electorate is going to see its living standards deteriorate so that Mélenchon can play Maquis. In Greece, Syriza will get absolutely roasted at the next elections.

The Greek people were massively behind Syriza (just look at the massive OXI victory) as long as Syriza was fighting bravely. Now that Syriza was force to knee by a bankster coup, and that Greek people were massively hurt by the next round of austerity that Syriza opposed but couldn't defeat, yes, they might very well abandon Syriza. But that's the cost of defeat, that's not what will happen while Mélenchon will fight - and France being an order of magnitude stronger than Greece, Mélenchon will actually win.

Do you realize that by breaking up the Eurozone, the average Greek's purchasing power would be devastatingly crippled (due to the massive devaluation of his currency) while the average German's purchasing power would multiply a dozenfold, due to the revaluation of his currency?

And do you realize that massive revaluation of its currency will actually destroy Germany's industry, whose strength is exactly that it can massively export to an eurozone that can no longer devaluate its currency to protect its own industry ?

Also, don't forget Germany's _huge_ demographics problem. Very soon, in one or two decades, it's Germany that will need help from the rest of Europe, to upkeep its elderly population with such a low birth rate, and with its crumbling infrastructures due to austerity.

[Kilobugya]

Odd to cite Venezuela, the party taking control using often corrupt an authoritarian means to gain power, then ruining the country altogether. Not a model to follow.

Hrm, no, Chávez definitely didn't use "corrupt or authoritarian" means (Maduro being somewhat more debatable), but not the topic.

You grossly overestimate the position of France and underestimate German resolve and control. They can hurt you more than you can hurt them.

Greece to over estimated and overplayed their hand while showing it to the Germans. France is bigger and stronger, but not big or strong enough.

I explained in details why it's not true, you can keep repeating your thesis without any argument, but I don't see what it adds to the debate...

The only way to escape it is not via monetary policy, or printing money, none of which produce real value.

Printing money doesn't produce real value, but printing money and investing it (in infrastructure, in education, in research&development, ...) does produce real value on the medium to long term. You know what empowered the industrial revolution to happen in Europe right ? The floods of (stolen) silver and gold from the Americas, that was in a time of the gold standard, the equivalent of monetary creation.

You have to start making more competitive goods. Get your country working again. It is not about printing or borrowing money. It is about producing value.
First you have to strengthen your hand before you can play. Build a stronger more independent economy first, before starting a fight with Germany you at sure to lose.

But our country does work and produces value - we even have an higher productivity than Germany : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... y_GDP_(PPP)_per_hour_worked

The problem is not we don't produce or don't work. The problem is that this value produced is stolen and accumulated by a tiny minority of ultrarich (France is the top 1 in EU for dividends paid to stock owners, or for the wage of CEOs of big corporations), and that the state budget is strangled by a combination of tax evasion, unfair competition from tax haven from inside the EU (Ireland, Luxembourg, ...) and monetary policies, preventing us from doing the required investement in infrastructure, education and R&D that would re-dynamize our economy.

[Novus America]

The best way out of "the austerity deathtrap", as you call it, is to become competitive as a state and an economy, produce surpluses, and create a safety net by your own efforts. Then you can raise salaries, pensions, benefits and whatever. If and when you are able to afford it.

That's utter nonsense. First, the whole "competitive" thing is just ideology, and can't work. You can't be "competitive" with countries paying their workers misery for insanely long working hours in terrible environemental or safety conditions without doing the same. It's, like being "competitive" on taxes, a downward spiral that can only lead to your population suffering more and more.

Second, there is no way you can become "competitive" out of austerity - the only path to so-called "competitiveness", admitting this is even desirable, that doesn't involve turning your country into a giant sweatshop involves massive automation and huge infrastructure - which is the exact opposite of what austerity does. You need to massively _invest_ in education, infrastructure, industry, ... which is exactly the opposite of what austerity does.

To think you can somehow scare the rest of the Eurozone into compliance with whiny threats and racist stereotypes

Racist stereotypes ? Who is the one saying that half of Europe are lazy bastard who deserve to suffer, live in poverty, and see their children die in the cold and be deprived of education ? I want everyone to live decently, from Finland to Greece, from Spain to Germany. And that means _investing_ in education, in healthcare, in infrastructure, and that means attacking the income gap, stopping a tiny minority of ultrarich from plundering everything for their insane profits. I'm an universalist, the exact opposite of a racist. Being racist is saying it's fair and normal for Greeks or Spanish to live in poverty.

while at the same time causing economic damage

Austerity is what is doing enormous damage, economic and human. It's a crime against humanity. Every single child that goes unfed, unsheltered, uncured, uneducated is a crime against all humanity, as well as a terrible economic waste. Every billion of euros created by ECB to feed the speculative bubble of banksters, while not being to build infrastructure, educate, feed and shelter people is both a crime against humanity and a terrible economical waste. Every pound of coal, gas or oil burned in fossil plants because we "can't afford" to use renewable or nuclear is wreaking havoc to the climate (for countless economical and human damage), and to the health of people breathing it, accounting for hundred of thousand of deaths and enormous economical costs in healthcare. And so on.

Nevermind the fact that the French themselves would disapprove of these tactics too. I very much doubt that the French electorate is going to see its living standards deteriorate so that Mélenchon can play Maquis. In Greece, Syriza will get absolutely roasted at the next elections.

The Greek people were massively behind Syriza (just look at the massive OXI victory) as long as Syriza was fighting bravely. Now that Syriza was force to knee by a bankster coup, and that Greek people were massively hurt by the next round of austerity that Syriza opposed but couldn't defeat, yes, they might very well abandon Syriza. But that's the cost of defeat, that's not what will happen while Mélenchon will fight - and France being an order of magnitude stronger than Greece, Mélenchon will actually win.

Do you realize that by breaking up the Eurozone, the average Greek's purchasing power would be devastatingly crippled (due to the massive devaluation of his currency) while the average German's purchasing power would multiply a dozenfold, due to the revaluation of his currency?

And do you realize that massive revaluation of its currency will actually destroy Germany's industry, whose strength is exactly that it can massively export to an eurozone that can no longer devaluate its currency to protect its own industry ?

Also, don't forget Germany's _huge_ demographics problem. Very soon, in one or two decades, it's Germany that will need help from the rest of Europe, to upkeep its elderly population with such a low birth rate, and with its crumbling infrastructures due to austerity.

Look, I do not like austerity either. And yes you need to a invest greatly in infrastructure and industry. Education is important to, but simply spending money on it does not make it better though. You need not only invest money, but invest it well.

Thing is you cannot invest without something of value to invest, or making it clear your economy will be worth something in the future.
And France does have money to invest, investment does not have to be debt driven. But you will have to reallocate money from elsewhere.

Austerity is a consequence of bad actions. And yes it is extremely difficult to get out of. The best way to avoid getting stuck in a tar pit is to avoid it altogether.
Problem is you already jumped in. There is no easy way out.

True Germany is not being sustainable. Long term they will have big problems. But you will have to wait them out.
In 30 years yes you might be able to escape their grasp. But not now.

[Theodorex]

Baltenstein wrote:
The best way out of "the austerity deathtrap", as you call it, is to become competitive as a state and an economy, produce surpluses, and create a safety net by your own efforts. Then you can raise salaries, pensions, benefits and whatever. If and when you are able to afford it.


That's utter nonsense. First, the whole "competitive" thing is just ideology, and can't work.

Agreed

And do you realize that massive revaluation of its currency will actually destroy Germany's industry, whose strength is exactly that it can massively export to an eurozone that can no longer devaluate its currency to protect its own industry ?

There won't be massive devaluation. For some reasons people think there has to be a massive pain. Not so, the value of the currency Depends on government policy. It is possible that value of the new franc goes up if government runs sucd a policy. Demands taxes in new franc and doesn't convert euros that people have in bank accounts forcefully. It is not probably the wisest policy to run but It is possible to have new franc go up in value relative to euro. There is no reason for fear, France has a strong economy. You probably have your reasons but this nightmare would be over in no time.

[Novus America]

Odd to cite Venezuela, the party taking control using often corrupt an authoritarian means to gain power, then ruining the country altogether. Not a model to follow.

Hrm, no, Chávez definitely didn't use "corrupt or authoritarian" means (Maduro being somewhat more debatable), but not the topic.

You grossly overestimate the position of France and underestimate German resolve and control. They can hurt you more than you can hurt them.

Greece to over estimated and overplayed their hand while showing it to the Germans. France is bigger and stronger, but not big or strong enough.

I explained in details why it's not true, you can keep repeating your thesis without any argument, but I don't see what it adds to the debate...

The only way to escape it is not via monetary policy, or printing money, none of which produce real value.

Printing money doesn't produce real value, but printing money and investing it (in infrastructure, in education, in research&development, ...) does produce real value on the medium to long term. You know what empowered the industrial revolution to happen in Europe right ? The floods of (stolen) silver and gold from the Americas, that was in a time of the gold standard, the equivalent of monetary creation.

You have to start making more competitive goods. Get your country working again. It is not about printing or borrowing money. It is about producing value.
First you have to strengthen your hand before you can play. Build a stronger more independent economy first, before starting a fight with Germany you at sure to lose.

But our country does work and produces value - we even have an higher productivity than Germany : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... y_GDP_(PPP)_per_hour_worked

The problem is not we don't produce or don't work. The problem is that this value produced is stolen and accumulated by a tiny minority of ultrarich (France is the top 1 in EU for dividends paid to stock owners, or for the wage of CEOs of big corporations), and that the state budget is strangled by a combination of tax evasion, unfair competition from tax haven from inside the EU (Ireland, Luxembourg, ...) and monetary policies, preventing us from doing the required investement in infrastructure, education and R&D that would re-dynamize our economy.

Right now France does not have the power. Which is my point. Yes you could run your economy much better. Yes you have money you could invest.
Yes you do produce many things still.
Yes you could fix your economy such that long term you might be able to escape Germany's hold.
But you will have to start local, fix the problems at home before you can hope to fix, or if need be leave the EU.

Problem is you are putting the cart before the horse.

Rather than charging in to a fight with Germany, first build up your forces.
I am not saying it is a battle you will not have to fight, I am saying it is a battle you cannot fight right now.

Make the changes at home, such that you no longer need their money.

Printing money and investing it, only works if people trust the money. People trusted gold and silver which is why they worked for Europe.
You have to have value to invest. You first need to make people have trust in your economy and its future. Once you people believe that you have a bright future, money comes in. So much of it is an image game. Starting a fight with Germany now will have the opposite effect though, it will scare people, cause them to panic, lose hope, and pull money out of your economy.

Greece's mistake was not only that they were small, but that they started a fight before they were prepared to fight it. That the went in while trust in their economy in future was already low, and the fight only sent it lower, forcing them to concede. Had they rebuilt trust in their economy first, they could have done it better.
And you can built up you economy without new debt. Though to do so you need an effective, efficient government. Not corruption, tax evasion, redundancy and an oversized bureaucracy. You need more workers in government, and few administrators.

Bide your time, build your hand, and do not play your hand until you have the cards.

[Novus America]

Baltenstein wrote:
The best way out of "the austerity deathtrap", as you call it, is to become competitive as a state and an economy, produce surpluses, and create a safety net by your own efforts. Then you can raise salaries, pensions, benefits and whatever. If and when you are able to afford it.


That's utter nonsense. First, the whole "competitive" thing is just ideology, and can't work.

Agreed

And do you realize that massive revaluation of its currency will actually destroy Germany's industry, whose strength is exactly that it can massively export to an eurozone that can no longer devaluate its currency to protect its own industry ?

There won't be massive devaluation. For some reasons people think there has to be a massive pain. Not so, the value of the currency Depends on government policy. It is possible that value of the new franc goes up if government runs sucd a policy. Demands taxes in new franc and doesn't convert euros that people have in bank accounts forcefully. It is not probably the wisest policy to run but It is possible to have new franc go up in value relative to euro. There is no reason for fear, France has a strong economy. You probably have your reasons but this nightmare would be over in no time.

Thinking this will be "over in no time", is frankly just wrong.
Problem is you think there is an easy way out. That getting out of a mess you spent decades getting into can be escape without spending decades digging your way out.
It is going to be a long, hard slog to get France out of this. There are no easy or immediate solutions.

[Baltenstein]

That's utter nonsense. First, the whole "competitive" thing is just ideology, and can't work. You can't be "competitive" with countries paying their workers misery for insanely long working hours in terrible environemental or safety conditions without doing the same. It's, like being "competitive" on taxes, a downward spiral that can only lead to your population suffering more and more.

Worker misery? Insanely long working hours? Are you talking about the German model, which actually has one of the lowest working hours per year in the OECD? Yet still somehow manages to be at the top for productiveness?

Second, there is no way you can become "competitive" out of austerity - the only path to so-called "competitiveness", admitting this is even desirable, that doesn't involve turning your country into a giant sweatshop involves massive automation and huge infrastructure - which is the exact opposite of what austerity does. You need to massively _invest_ in education, infrastructure, industry, ... which is exactly the opposite of what austerity does.

Yeah, nevermind that plenty of countries, in both past and present, have managed to grow out of austerity by becoming competitive again. You've already ignored the cases of Cyprus, Spain, Ireland and Portugal when brought up to you, and I assume you'll continue to ignore them.
Greece could have also been on the path of recovery by now. Unfortunately, we got Tsipras instead.

Racist stereotypes ?

Yes, racist stereotypes. How would you like it if some German politician would write a book spouting every primitive, hostile stereotype of the French he can think of and also boasting that "France has gone too far" and that "Germany will beat France into submission"? I guess that guy would be a real internationalist hero to you, eh?

Who is the one saying that half of Europe are lazy bastard who deserve to suffer, live in poverty, and see their children die in the cold and be deprived of education ?

Yes, who indeed? Show me where EU politicians, respectable ones, not rabble-rousers like Melenchon, talk like that.

I want everyone to live decently, from Finland to Greece, from Spain to Germany. And that means _investing_ in education, in healthcare, in infrastructure, and that means attacking the income gap, stopping a tiny minority of ultrarich from plundering everything for their insane profits. I'm an universalist, the exact opposite of a racist.

If it comes to human well-being, then I suggest you first channel all your wealth to the 90 % of humanity who continue to live far worse than the average EU citizen. Best start with countries like Venezuela, whose population is currently freefalling into true misery thanks to its fucked-up government.

Being racist is saying it's fair and normal for Greeks or Spanish to live in poverty.

Again: Who is saying that?

Every pound of coal, gas or oil burned in fossil plants because we "can't afford" to use renewable or nuclear is wreaking havoc to the climate (for countless economical and human damage), and to the health of people breathing it, accounting for hundred of thousand of deaths and enormous economical costs in healthcare. And so on.

Are you going to blame that on the ebul Northern Europeans too?! Despite the fact that they've taken the global lead in renewable energies and enviromental protection? If you want to see true pollution than look no further than countries like Russia or China, countries that Mélenchon is showering with praise.

The Greek people were massively behind Syriza (just look at the massive OXI victory) as long as Syriza was fighting bravely.

You have no idea about the scale of empty promises and (self-)delusions that Syriza fed to the Greek people during that clusterfuck of a referendum. Do you know that Tsipras, personally, was actually hoping that the "YES" vote would pass? So that he could shift the blame for signing the unpopular measures he already knew he would sign from himself to the citizens?

Now that Syriza was force to knee by a bankster coup, and that Greek people were massively hurt by the next round of austerity that Syriza opposed but couldn't defeat, yes, they might very well abandon Syriza.

Greece is being hurt, daily, by Syriza's cartoonish incompetence to manage...anything. At all. Desipte the Greek state already de facto bankrupt, and despite Greece having one of the fastest-aging populations in Europe, the Syriza government continues to pay full pensions to civil servants retiring at 50. FUCKING. FIFTY. The system is completely unsustainable but they don't care. After all, civil servants - particularly the useless, lazy ones - are one of the few voter groups that Syriza still has.

But that's the cost of defeat, that's not what will happen while Mélenchon will fight - and France being an order of magnitude stronger than Greece, Mélenchon will actually win.

Go and play a videogame if you want to recreate an inter-European war.

And do you realize that massive revaluation of its currency will actually destroy Germany's industry, whose strength is exactly that it can massively export to an eurozone that can no longer devaluate its currency to protect its own industry ?

Right, because Germany exports to the Eurozone and ONLY the Eurozone. That's why the Germans were superpoor before the introduction of the Euro, and had no industry.
And of course you didn't adress the argument of Germans becoming obscenely wealthy thanks to their massively revalued Deutschmark and simply buying all of Southern Europe almost for free.

Also, don't forget Germany's _huge_ demographics problem. Very soon, in one or two decades, it's Germany that will need help from the rest of Europe, to upkeep its elderly population with such a low birth rate, and with its crumbling infrastructures due to austerity.

Lower birthrates are a natural phenomenon of increasing wealth, not increasing poverty. And they have a multitude of reasons, ranging from culture, to living space, to gender relations to countless other items. Do you think Japan has low birthrates because of austerity too? While Germany's demographics are indeed problematic, you don't seem to understand that an elderly Germany will have a A) much more conservative electorate and B) will have to use much more of its own funds to finance its own pension net, and will therefore be less inclined to channel funds into Southern Europe than ever. An older Germany will mean even less solidarity from Germany to Greece.

That's why I want my country - Greece - to use the opportunities it is being offered by membership in the EU. Become productive in areas it can, and regain international diplomatic and economic trust. Then it can defy Schauble. If it has sucesses it achieved on its own. ON ITS OWN. Like the Portuguese did. Not by first insulting the rest of the EZ like a spoiled brat, and then asking the very same countries for more handouts, like a beggar.
Unfortunately, we have a government that is doing everything it can to turn us into a 3rd world failed state, and completely at Turkey's mercy, for good.

[Theodorex]

Thinking this will be "over in no time", is frankly just wrong.
Problem is you think there is an easy way out. That getting out of a mess you spent decades getting into can be escape without spending decades digging your way out.
It is going to be a long, hard slog to get France out of this. There are no easy or immediate solutions.

This has happened before, It is not like the end of the world. My propasal is that France leaves current institutions in place and starts taxing in new franc. No confiscating people's saving in euros, no capital controls, none of that. Now people have tax obligations, if the government makes new franc scarce than people start converting their euros to francs to pay taxes. Ok, not a wise policy and that is not the purpose of this at all, just saying. The purpose of new currency is that government can serve public purpose. To achive the goals the voters want. Monetary system is just a tool to achive that and not some information source what those goals are. France can have full emloyment. Fundamentally only human work creates value, so the more people France can have working the better, not more money saved for some stupid reasons. After france has its own currency, It has francs in unlimited quantities. Money is not the question after that, there are other issues like green energy may be, like distribution of wealth etc. Even Hitler had full emloyment and before him everyone was saying that Germany didn't have money and could do nothing, Germany was much worse than France is today yet It built the most powerful military machine in the world wihtin 5 years. How could It do it, It was broke?

This system serves fascists just as well as progressive liberals. There is nothing holding France back but France itself. Yes I unerstand that in reality we have uninformed politicians that can totally screw things up. We can have all kinds of currency crises, hyperinflations etc. But please don't think that they are so smart in ECB or EC, they are not.

[Ghuraba Al-Khorusani]

So if Le Pen wins and if Wilders controlled the Netherlands how would this work? She wants Jews to renounce their Israeli citizenship yet Geert Wilders is a very strong Zionist as is Trump.

[NeoLiberia]

racist stereotypes

I can't help but mention that takimag.com is run by someone who endorsed Golden Dawn, and is currently sporting an article called "Trump Must Break Judicial Power."

[Arkinesia]

What a fucking crock. Is Le Pen even trying to pretend to not be a Diet Coke fascist?

[Militant Costco]

What a fucking crock. Is Le Pen even trying to pretend to not be a Diet Coke fascist?

Only in France is your decision either becoming Socialist or Nationalist.

France needs to discover what centrism or bipartisan means.

[Theodorex]

Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau cautioned French voters about the costs of withdrawing from the euro, noting that local interest rates are already rising on concerns about this year’s presidential election.National Front leader Marine Le Pen, who wants to take France out of the single European currency, is on track to place first in the initial round of voting in France’s 2017 election, though she is unlikely to win the run-off and attain office, polls show. Even so, with the National Front closer than ever to power, the premium the French government pays to borrow over Germany has increased to its highest level in more than four years.
“The recent increase in French rates -- which I believe is temporary -- corresponds to a certain worry about the exit from the euro,” Villeroy de Galhau said Monday on France Inter radio.

Le Pen has the support of about 26 percent of the electorate for the first round of voting in April, compared with 20.5 percent for independent Emmanuel Macron and 17.5 percent for Republican Francois Fillon, according to the latest Ifop daily rolling poll. Both Macron and Fillon would defeat Le Pen in the second round vote, all polls show.

The National Front candidate has been hammering home her message on euro exit. Speaking Sunday she said that the single currency was a political instrument that limits French sovereignty.

“I can’t implement my promises of intelligent protectionism and industrial policy with the single currency,” Le Pen said. “It’s a brake on the economy, it’s an obstacle to the recovery. The euro isn’t a currency, it’s a political tool.”

Villeroy, by contrast, estimates that leaving the euro would increase the cost of debt service for the French government by about 30 billion euros ($32 billion) a year.

“That might seem a bit abstract to listeners, but 30 billion euros, to be very concrete, is equivalent to France’s annual defense budget,” he said.

France would also have a harder time defending itself on the global economic stage, he added.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/arti ... ing-spread

The interest rates would not go up, once France has new franc(floating forex), It sets the interest rate itself. As far as French foreign currency (euro) debt goes, I am sure something reasonable could be negotiated if euro survives after this at all. It might not politically. Other EZ countries are not ready to abandon euro so it might survive at least for a short period regardless of initial shock. Not to forget that France has capital in ECB that is freed theoretically.

And yes, euro is a political tool.

[Kilobugya]

Worker misery? Insanely long working hours? Are you talking about the German model, which actually has one of the lowest working hours per year in the OECD? Yet still somehow manages to be at the top for productiveness?

No, I was speaking of the stupid "competitiveness" ideology that says we need to be competitive with China or other countries with no workers rights. As for Germany, first the "German model" is far being as great as you pretend (there are a lot of apoverished workers in Germany, and the life expectancy of the poor is actually _falling_), but letting that aside, how did Germany _become_ such an industrial powerhouse ? Through massive repeated debt relief, and massive investment (Marshall Plan, among others). Exactly what Germany is refusing to "Southern Europe" !

Yeah, nevermind that plenty of countries, in both past and present, have managed to grow out of austerity by becoming competitive again. You've already ignored the cases of Cyprus, Spain, Ireland and Portugal when brought up to you, and I assume you'll continue to ignore them.

Cyprus and Ireland are tax/banking haven, that can't be a model, because that only works at the expense of others. So it only works if you're the only one (or the few ones) doing it while others don't, it's a defect strategy, if everyone does it everyone gets harmed. And that's more harmful to the eurozone than any refusal to apply austerity, but it's not against tax/banking haven that Germany turns its might, no...

As for Spain, it still has 19% unemployment rate and a youth unemployment rate of... 42%, that's what success is for you ? And a growth rate around 0.5% which is very anemic, especially when after a repression you should have a "rebound". And as for Portugal, it's actually _fighting_ against austerity since 2015.

Greece could have also been on the path of recovery by now. Unfortunately, we got Tsipras instead.

Ridiculous, Greece has been collapsing for almost a decade with no recovery in hope until Tsipras came, and more austerity imposed to Tsipras against his will did as expected, more misery.

Yes, racist stereotypes. How would you like it if some German politician would write a book spouting every primitive, hostile stereotype of the French he can think of and also boasting that "France has gone too far" and that "Germany will beat France into submission"? I guess that guy would be a real internationalist hero to you, eh?

What's the point of what on obscure greek politician said, and how is that relevant to any discussion about French presidential elections and Mélenchon/FdG proposals about the EU ? Are you just trying to do a very twisted form of guilt by association, finding some obscure politician who holds a view somewhat similar to ours on EU but who is racist and use that to accuse them of racism ?

Yes, who indeed? Show me where EU politicians, respectable ones, not rabble-rousers like Melenchon, talk like that.

Oh, they don't need to "talk like that" - they do it. Much worse.

If it comes to human well-being, then I suggest you first channel all your wealth to the 90 % of humanity who continue to live far worse than the average EU citizen.

Well, EU+USA+Canada makes more than 10% of humanity, so your figures are wrong But that aside, if you were honest instead of just trying to poke holes at random, you would realize that us "the left" (and Mélenchon in particular) are about the only ones who actually want to increase help towards the "third world", both in direct financial help, and in changing the way international relation works to benefit them. So no hypocrisis here, we were speaking about EU so I took my examples inside EU, but our will to ensure human well-being doesn't stop at the borders of EU.

Best start with countries like Venezuela, whose population is currently freefalling into true misery thanks to its fucked-up government.

Venezuela is a complex topic, it would completely derail the thread if we start speaking about it, so please don't. And for your own sake, don't bring latam into the discussion, because Ecuador, Argentina, ... of the 90s are clear examples (and much worse than anything that is happening in Venezuela now) of how disastrous austerity and IMF/"Washington consensus" plans can be.

Every pound of coal, gas or oil burned in fossil plants because we "can't afford" to use renewable or nuclear is wreaking havoc to the climate (for countless economical and human damage), and to the health of people breathing it, accounting for hundred of thousand of deaths and enormous economical costs in healthcare. And so on.

Are you going to blame that on the ebul Northern Europeans too?! Despite the fact that they've taken the global lead in renewable energies and enviromental protection?

I blame austerity for that, not "ebul Northern Europeans", I never used that kind of thinking - austerity is a disaster, and prevents us from investing into renewable/nuclear and environmental protection, and it's austerity I'm fighting, not any country in particular - I oppose Germany and Northern European when they try to impose austerity to others, that doesn't mean I disagree with everything they ever did or said.

If you want to see true pollution than look no further than countries like Russia or China, countries that Mélenchon is showering with praise.

No, he's not showering them with praise. Refusing to be in a "Western block vs evil Russia/China" logic, and wanting constructive dialogue and cooperation with _everyone_ doesn't mean praising Russia or China. We oppose sanctions against Russia (they are useless against Putin, but harm both Europeans and Russian citizens) that doesn't mean we like Putin, or approves everything he does. The same way we can firmly disapprove what USA does in the Middle East or the coups it supports in latam, and yet not ask for sanctions against USA. Not choosing to ally with a "block" is always presented by member of a block as choosing the other block, but that's a logic we reject - we are non-aligned.

[Baltenstein]

No, I was speaking of the stupid "competitiveness" ideology that says we need to be competitive with China or other countries with no workers rights. As for Germany, first the "German model" is far being as great as you pretend (there are a lot of apoverished workers in Germany, and the life expectancy of the poor is actually _falling_), but letting that aside, how did Germany _become_ such an industrial powerhouse ? Through massive repeated debt relief, and massive investment (Marshall Plan, among others). Exactly what Germany is refusing to "Southern Europe" !

Do you know why Germany got debt relief and investment after WW2? Because people thought that investing into Germany would actually be a good investment for themselves in the foreseeable future. Because Germany had a business-friendly enviroment, a productive manufacturing sector, an efficient and transparent management and so on. ALL of which Greece currently lacks. Syriza is doing everything it can to preserve a bloated and inefficient state bureaucracy, and drive out both Greek and foreign investors. It is trying to continue all the bad habits that led Greece into the debt crisis in the first place.
Oh, and also, post-WW2, the Germans knew they had fucked up and that it was in their own best political and economic interest to comply with Allied demands and to cooperate in everything the Allies asked of them, in exchange for said debt relief and Marshall Plan. They knew how important it is to build up trust. They didn't run around screaming that they are going to "resist" and "kick the Allies out of the country", completely damaging their country's relations with the countries they relied upon, like Syriza does.

Cyprus and Ireland are tax/banking haven, that can't be a model, because that only works at the expense of others.

So disrespectful of you to repeatedly call Cyprus and Ireland "tax havens", as if that was the only thing those countries stand for. As if the Cypriot and Irish people didn't work to become productive and efficient and regain the trust of the EU and the international markets again.

So it only works if you're the only one (or the few ones) doing it while others don't, it's a defect strategy, if everyone does it everyone gets harmed. And that's more harmful to the eurozone than any refusal to apply austerity, but it's not against tax/banking haven that Germany turns its might, no...

Contrary to what you are pretending, the EU does not stand only for "austerity". There are countless EU-sponsored infrastructure and growth programms in the smaller countries, for which Germany - and France - are the main sponsors.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/eur ... 30560.html

In Greece, you can hardly go anywhere without finding a sign saying "this street/building was built thanks to EU subsidies". How do you think Greece would look without this EU help?

As for Spain, it still has 19% unemployment rate and a youth unemployment rate of... 42%, that's what success is for you ? And a growth rate around 0.5% which is very anemic, especially when after a repression you should have a "rebound".

Yes, I do consider a reduction of unemployment from almost 30 % to 19 %, still falling, and a return to growth from recession a success. More importantly, so do the Spanish people themselves. After all, Rajoy was reconfirmed as government in their recent elections.

And as for Portugal, it's actually _fighting_ against austerity since 2015.

Yes, and you know why they can do so?
Because they have shown to be sucessful, ON THEIR OWN, without asking others for free money. They continue to have market acess, to sell their own bonds, and to manage their finances through their own means. They are not reliant on Schauble's goodwill, THAT'S why they are able to resist his demand. Basis knowledge that people like Tsipras fail to understand.

Ridiculous, Greece has been collapsing for almost a decade with no recovery in hope until Tsipras came, and more austerity imposed to Tsipras against his will did as expected, more misery.

You know what, I'm done discussing Greece with you. You've shown only superficial knowledge of Greece's current issues and domestic affairs and refuse to adress any point that goes beyond poor brave, little Tsipras. I doubt you could even name more than a handful of Greek politicians and what they have done.

What's the point of what on obscure greek politician said, and how is that relevant to any discussion about French presidential elections and Mélenchon/FdG proposals about the EU ? Are you just trying to do a very twisted form of guilt by association, finding some obscure politician who holds a view somewhat similar to ours on EU but who is racist and use that to accuse them of racism ?

I'm not talking about "some obscure Greek politician". If you had followed the link, you would have seen that I'm talking about Melenchon's book "The German poison". Which is pure deluded racist bullshit. The sort of mentality with which Wilders and Le Pen talk about Muslims etc.

Oh, they don't need to "talk like that" - they do it. Much worse.

As per usual, you provide no examples for that.

Well, EU+USA+Canada makes more than 10% of humanity, so your figures are wrong But that aside, if you were honest instead of just trying to poke holes at random, you would realize that us "the left" (and Mélenchon in particular) are about the only ones who actually want to increase help towards the "third world", both in direct financial help, and in changing the way international relation works to benefit them. So no hypocrisis here, we were speaking about EU so I took my examples inside EU, but our will to ensure human well-being doesn't stop at the borders of EU.

You know what, France is free to pursue whatever immigration and/or development aid policy she wants.

Venezuela is a complex topic, it would completely derail the thread if we start speaking about it, so please don't. And for your own sake, don't bring latam into the discussion, because Ecuador, Argentina, ... of the 90s are clear examples (and much worse than anything that is happening in Venezuela now) of how disastrous austerity and IMF/"Washington consensus" plans can be.

Yes and? In the 90ies, right-wing government managed LatAm's economies badly, as a result, the "Pink Tide" swept in leftwing governments, who did good things and bad things. This day and age, where the bad things have started to be much more than the good things (especially in the case of Venezuela), LatAm citizens have started to vote the Leftist governments out of power again, as is normal.

I blame austerity for that, not "ebul Northern Europeans", I never used that kind of thinking - austerity is a disaster, and prevents us from investing into renewable/nuclear and environmental protection, and it's austerity I'm fighting, not any country in particular - I oppose Germany and Northern European when they try to impose austerity to others, that doesn't mean I disagree with everything they ever did or said.

How do you explain then, that the same Germany which according to you, imposes austerity and nothing else, is also a global leader in renewable energy research?

No, he's not showering them with praise. Refusing to be in a "Western block vs evil Russia/China" logic, and wanting constructive dialogue and cooperation with _everyone_ doesn't mean praising Russia or China. We oppose sanctions against Russia (they are useless against Putin, but harm both Europeans and Russian citizens) that doesn't mean we like Putin, or approves everything he does. The same way we can firmly disapprove what USA does in the Middle East or the coups it supports in latam, and yet not ask for sanctions against USA. Not choosing to ally with a "block" is always presented by member of a block as choosing the other block, but that's a logic we reject - we are non-aligned.

You know, as long as you speak as "you, the leftists", you can call yourselves "non-aligned" as much as you want. However, "you, the French" are absolutely NOT non-aligned. You are key members of both the EU and NATO, two organizations that Russia views and treats as geopolitical enemies and is constantly trying to damage and undermine from within.
How would a president Melenchon react in case of, say, Russian military agression against Estonia or Lithuania? Would he tell them to submit to Russian imperialism because "sorry, we are non-aligned"?

[Theodorex]

Yes, and you know why they can do so?
Because they have shown to be sucessful, ON THEIR OWN, without asking others for free money. They continue to have market acess, to sell their own bonds, and to manage their finances through their own means. They are not reliant on Schauble's goodwill, THAT'S why they are able to resist his demand. Basis knowledge that people like Tsipras fail to understand.

This market access is bs, I know this is how the game is played in EZ. I heard people even say for Greece protesters that why don't you want to work and instead of breaking windows you should work It might even sound reasonable but It is not. How about we start a new topic about euro and a regular fiat with floating exchange rate? Why are thsese leftist so mad about the austerity and what is really the issue about euro? Why is everone talking about it, is there a reason to blame Germany etc? We can look at monetary operations in US for example and how It all operates. Why I think euro has no future etc. What do guys/girls think ?

[Pergamon Politeia]

What a fucking crock. Is Le Pen even trying to pretend to not be a Diet Coke fascist?

"diet coke fascist", sounds loud and clear. that s a righteous definition, I m going to use it a pair of times, congrats

(about that railing, I m not French, still I suppose further than draining the swamp of voters, a sense of this sentence is to establish a precedent, a principle, so that some French of foreign and marghreb etcnicity can be re-called as citiziens.
they often retain their foreign citizienship untill death, if they immigrated, so this option of taking away double-passport is a legislative way to do it. I don t mean things against hebrews can t happen, this seems not the intention; then it could happen, not nowadays, in coming years, and the intention colud switch after against hebrews as against others - historically, in countries further than Germany in '30 this happened, others communities were threathened, jude persecution came after)

[Arkolon]

Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau cautioned French voters about the costs of withdrawing from the euro, noting that local interest rates are already rising on concerns about this year’s presidential election.National Front leader Marine Le Pen, who wants to take France out of the single European currency, is on track to place first in the initial round of voting in France’s 2017 election, though she is unlikely to win the run-off and attain office, polls show. Even so, with the National Front closer than ever to power, the premium the French government pays to borrow over Germany has increased to its highest level in more than four years.
“The recent increase in French rates -- which I believe is temporary -- corresponds to a certain worry about the exit from the euro,” Villeroy de Galhau said Monday on France Inter radio.

Le Pen has the support of about 26 percent of the electorate for the first round of voting in April, compared with 20.5 percent for independent Emmanuel Macron and 17.5 percent for Republican Francois Fillon, according to the latest Ifop daily rolling poll. Both Macron and Fillon would defeat Le Pen in the second round vote, all polls show.

The National Front candidate has been hammering home her message on euro exit. Speaking Sunday she said that the single currency was a political instrument that limits French sovereignty.

“I can’t implement my promises of intelligent protectionism and industrial policy with the single currency,” Le Pen said. “It’s a brake on the economy, it’s an obstacle to the recovery. The euro isn’t a currency, it’s a political tool.”

Villeroy, by contrast, estimates that leaving the euro would increase the cost of debt service for the French government by about 30 billion euros ($32 billion) a year.

“That might seem a bit abstract to listeners, but 30 billion euros, to be very concrete, is equivalent to France’s annual defense budget,” he said.

France would also have a harder time defending itself on the global economic stage, he added.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/arti ... ing-spread

The interest rates would not go up, once France has new franc(floating forex), It sets the interest rate itself. As far as French foreign currency (euro) debt goes, I am sure something reasonable could be negotiated if euro survives after this at all. It might not politically. Other EZ countries are not ready to abandon euro so it might survive at least for a short period regardless of initial shock. Not to forget that France has capital in ECB that is freed theoretically.

And yes, euro is a political tool.

The central banker is correct, bond yields would spike if Marine Le Pen wins and especially if she takes France out of the eurozone. Euro-denominated debt would still constitute an overwhelming part of the French government's obligations, and since France would be expected to pay back debt denominated in a currency it can't control the secondary bond market would be selling French (euro) bonds in a panic. Since that would drive the auctioning in the primary bond market, the French government would issue new debt at higher interest rates, even in new francs. I highly doubt the Banque de France in its current form would collude with the French government in the way you suggest (buying debt obligations from the open market), which in any case would dramatically devalue the franc as capital would be searching for yield outside of the hexagon. You say the French franc could in theory gain value over the euro (despite this being exactly what Le Pen wants to avoid - she believes the euro is overvalued for France), but extra-loose monetary policy is the perfect way to devalue the currency in relation to the euro!

[Portagesca]

I like Melenchon's ideology and policy *sniff*, but he feeds into the crazed euroscepticism that is about to destroy Europe. Hamon seems like a better choice, but he is less experienced and has a low profile, if Melenchon were able to implement his economic and welfare policies while the legislature stopped his Europe Destructionist agenda from gaining any ground, that would be an ideal situation