NationStates

Eol Sha wrote:

Dameth wrote:Whoever understands french politics also understands the FN will not win in a thousand year. Both mainstream parties are known to ally as soon as the threat become tangible and you need a bit more than 20% voters to counteract that.

Can you provide an example of this happening?

2002 Chirac versus Le Pen (father)

Humiliating defeat for Le Pen for mentionned reasons.

Although I do not agree with everything Le Pen says, I still do hope she wins.

Le Pen will not win. There is no venue for her.

Beside she is pure cancer. I'm totally in favor of the british commiting suicide by leaving the UE, I love Farrage but just because he made the brits jump off the bridge doesn't means I want to follow them

Experts also claimed Trump won't win.

Dameth wrote:Le Pen will not win. There is no venue for her.

Beside she is pure cancer. I'm totally in favor of the british commiting suicide by leaving the UE, I love Farrage but just because he made the brits jump off the bridge doesn't means I want to follow them

Yes but will either of the candidates fix the moribund French economy?

This is a totally different scenario for a number of reason.

• Trump is the son of a venture capitalist. Le Pen is the daughter of a crimelord whose racism is probably one of the least of his crimes
• There is no wide popular support for her views
• We're having a good laugh at the brits trying to crawl their way out of their population's stupidity
• The downfall of the socialist party is great but will benefit the regular right.

And most importantly :

• While Trump was endorsed by the republicans, our Républicains outright hate the FN and will have a competing candidate, most likely Fillon, that will eclipse her in the vote. Fillon is controversial for the left, but should it come to a Le Pen versus Fillon shodownas it appears it will be, Fillon will capt all the votes on the left.

Edit : I may be wrong as always, but really I'm pretty sure of what I say. A victory of the Front National would be a surprise far greater than a victory of the republicans. I mean. Republicans wining an election, big fucking surprise. The FN winning a presidency...that's unlikely and unseen so far in our history.

The East Marches wrote:Yes but will either of the candidates fix the moribund French economy?

Fillon would probably fix it. The socialist presidency was a disaster for us, on so many levels including economy. We'll probably lose a lot of our rights and acquired advantages in the process, but there's no way to avoid it at this point.

What's FN expected seats in the National Assembly?

Thermodolia wrote:What's FN expected seats in the National Assembly?

FN fares better in list based elections than candidate based elections, like all minor parties. But I can't say much.

Dameth wrote:

Thermodolia wrote:What's FN expected seats in the National Assembly?

FN fares better in list based elections than candidate based elections, like all minor parties. But I can't say much.

So even if Le Pen wins she'll have to deal with Socialist, Republican or a Socialist-Republican coalition in the National Assembly

Yeah, don't expect a lasting Républicain/Socialist coalition tho. They don't like each other - Républicains made clear they would not automatically ally with socialist against the FN at the local state, so that's a heavy sign the socialists will be pounded either way.

However, the line of the socialist party so far has been to always ally with Republicains against FN. On the whole territory the line was not followed by only one candidate during regional elections. Don't quote me on that tho

Also : Maybe I should make it more clear to foreign people what the FN is. It's creation by Le Pen (father) falls back to the aftermath of the war of Algeria, where disgruntled officers that were unhappy with the independances made an organization alled "Organisation Armée Secrete", OAS for short. They were active for a long time, killing people, putting bombs in places, doing what we would call today terrorism against their own citizens, and more importantly against the most respected right wing president of all times, namely De Gaulle. So we're not talking about grabbing a chick by the pussy or hosting a bad television show, we're talking about killing people and treason to the nation.
When it became clear they would achieve fucknot that way, they reformed into the Front National.

So when I say the right doesnt like the FN, I don't mean they find it distasteful. I mean there is no possible way on earth the two will ally in any meaningful way.

We'll see if France is the next domino to fall to right-wing nativist populism. I would prefer the socialists, but I would take anything over Le Pen

Juppe actually doesnt seem to bad.

The idealist in me wants to see Alain Juppé win but the realist in me knows Fillon would probably win and be able to secure more of the right-wing vote without being outlandishly nationalistic than Marine le Pen is.

Costa Fierro wrote:The idealist in me wants to see Alain Juppé win but the realist in me knows Fillon would probably win and be able to secure more of the right-wing vote without being outlandishly nationalistic than Marine le Pen is.

I'm in the same boat as you are. I'd love it if Juppé won but Fillon is more likely and at this point would be the better choice

Thermodolia wrote:

Costa Fierro wrote:The idealist in me wants to see Alain Juppé win but the realist in me knows Fillon would probably win and be able to secure more of the right-wing vote without being outlandishly nationalistic than Marine le Pen is.

I'm in the same boat as you are. I'd love it if Juppé won but Fillon is more likely and at this point would be the better choice

I agree with Fillon that there needs to be less tensions with Russia. The world at this point in time doesn't need a period where Russia is provoked to do dumb shit like annexing the territory of a sovereign state. The focus should be on getting rid of the biggest immediate threat to the West, which happens to be ISIS, and sorting Syria out, which is the reason why France has been subject to devastating terrorist attacks within the last 24 months. He also appears to bridge the gap with mainstream France in that whilst he does not appear to be as overtly nationalistic as Le Pen, he does seem to address French concerns about immigration and about the ability for French Muslims to integrate properly into French society.

Apparently it's a law of nature that as soon as one stressful election ends, another must kick into high gear.

Senkaku wrote:Apparently it's a law of nature that as soon as one stressful election ends, another must kick into high gear.

NZ's also going to the polls next year FYI.

Costa Fierro wrote:The idealist in me wants to see Alain Juppé win but the realist in me knows Fillon would probably win and be able to secure more of the right-wing vote without being outlandishly nationalistic than Marine le Pen is.

Judging from Wikipedia, polls show Juppé winning against Le Pen at greater margins than Fillon.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Interesting that PdG is polling considerably higher than PS at the moment. Maybe that'll be one saving grace from this shitshow.

Derod wrote:Frenchies need to be more progressive and finally vote a female in office since the USA dis not do it.

Le Pen is fucking insane. I'd rather France's first woman president be decided on their merits and policies and not just their body parts.

Bakery Hill wrote:Interesting that PdG is polling considerably higher than PS at the moment. Maybe that'll be one saving grace from this shitshow.

The Socialists have pretty much trashed France. Of course any other party will be higher

Thermodolia wrote:

Bakery Hill wrote:Interesting that PdG is polling considerably higher than PS at the moment. Maybe that'll be one saving grace from this shitshow.

The Socialists have pretty much trashed France. Of course any other party will be higher

I'm aware of that. Now, despite a surefire victory for the right, hopefully the socialists will win out over the Socialists.

Thermodolia wrote:

Derod wrote:Frenchies need to be more progressive and finally vote a female in office since the USA dis not do it.

Le Pen is fucking insane. I'd rather France's first woman president be decided on their merits and policies and not just their body parts.

Yeah, this fella aside, I doubt conservative nationalists are voting for Le Pen on the basis of diversity.

It is indeed likely that we'll see a second round between either Juppé or Fillon, and Le Pen. Which would be a disaster for our country. It's not certain yet, the situation is so tense and explosive that a lot can change in 6 months, but it's likely.

The blame mainly lies on Hollande and Valls, who betrayed everything the left stands for, doing the exact opposite of what they were elected to do - leading to a splintering of the left, and to strong apathy/"they are all the same liars so I won't go to vote anymore" among the left-leaning French citizen.

As for Juppé or Fillon... Fillon is slightly worse, more biggot conservative (backed by the homophobe of "La Manif pour Tous" and their ilk) and even more disastrous (Tatcherian, as you say) economical program, but it's not like Juppé is much better. Hell, I did my first strikes and massive protests against Juppé as a teenager, back then in December 1995...

Kilobugya wrote:It is indeed likely that we'll see a second round between either Juppé or Fillon, and Le Pen. Which would be a disaster for our country. It's not certain yet, the situation is so tense and explosive that a lot can change in 6 months, but it's likely.

The blame mainly lies on Hollande and Valls, who betrayed everything the left stands for, doing the exact opposite of what they were elected to do - leading to a splintering of the left, and to strong apathy/"they are all the same liars so I won't go to vote anymore" among the left-leaning French citizen.

As for Juppé or Fillon... Fillon is slightly worse, more biggot conservative (backed by the homophobe of "La Manif pour Tous" and their ilk) and even more disastrous (Tatcherian, as you say) economical program, but it's not like Juppé is much better. Hell, I did my first strikes and massive protests against Juppé as a teenager, back then in December 1995...

But both Juppé and Fillon are better than the alternative.if you think Fillon or Juppé would be bad Le Pen would be a lot worse.

I myself wanted Sarkozy but that was not mental to be so Juppé is my next best option