French presidential primaries

[Olerand]

Marine Le Pen's replacement as Front National leader steps down over Nazi gas chamber comments

Oops?

Poor Marine Le Pen. The more she tries to distance her party from its fascist roots, the more fascist crap dribbles out of it.

His removal was inevitable after the comments surfaced. What I don't understand is... why did they choose him? I get that he's the consensus candidate between the right of the party (Marion) and the left (Florian), but... really?
There was no one else? Really? They didn't know about his comments?

Marine's run a good media campaign so far, not sure why she would open herself to this. We'll see if this has any repercussions in the campaign. The debate on May 3rd should be Marine's biggest moment, because Emmanuel's debating skills are... lacking. If she can nail him down as a globalist capitalist etc. etc. she can reach 40% of the vote or so. If he nails her down on this, she won't get close.

[Thermodolia]

Poor Marine Le Pen. The more she tries to distance her party from its fascist roots, the more fascist crap dribbles out of it.

His removal was inevitable after the comments surfaced. What I don't understand is... why did they choose him? I get that he's the consensus candidate between the right of the party (Marion) and the left (Florian), but... really?
There was no one else? Really? They didn't know about his comments?

Marine's run a good media campaign so far, not sure why she would open herself to this. We'll see if this has any repercussions in the campaign. The debate on May 3rd should be Marine's biggest moment, because Emmanuel's debating skills are... lacking. If she can nail him down as a globalist capitalist etc. etc. she can reach 40% of the vote or so. If he nails her down on this, she won't get close.

I don't know about that. In the first debate Macron was rated the most convincing and in the second he tied with Mélenchon. So I'm not sure there

[Olerand]

His removal was inevitable after the comments surfaced. What I don't understand is... why did they choose him? I get that he's the consensus candidate between the right of the party (Marion) and the left (Florian), but... really?
There was no one else? Really? They didn't know about his comments?

Marine's run a good media campaign so far, not sure why she would open herself to this. We'll see if this has any repercussions in the campaign. The debate on May 3rd should be Marine's biggest moment, because Emmanuel's debating skills are... lacking. If she can nail him down as a globalist capitalist etc. etc. she can reach 40% of the vote or so. If he nails her down on this, she won't get close.

I don't know about that. In the first debate Macron was rated the most convincing and in the second he tied with Mélenchon. So I'm not sure there

Which is not a testament to his rhetorical skills. The polls showed about the same number of people agreeing that he did best as those who had a good opinion of him and intended to vote for him (about a quarter).
For example, Mélenchon is widely recognized as a good orator, he can speak for hours (and regularly does so) about whatever without pause and without looking at a paper. Macron is not that, not that Marine is either. Both of their skills are lacking, but Marine has more of an impetus to be on the offensive as she is the 'challenger' in this situation.

[The Californian South]

Should we maybe take all the people who said "Trump won't win" as a warning?

[Olerand]

Should we maybe take all the people who said "Trump won't win" as a warning?

Unless if France is now American, no. One really shouldn't draw such loose conclusions from such dissimilar countries.

[Kilobugya]

Should we maybe take all the people who said "Trump won't win" as a warning?

The situation isn't really similar - Trump did lose the popular vote and only won due to electoral college weirdness which doesn't exist here, Trump was new (and pollsters didn't know how to handle him), while Marine Le Pen is in French politics since ages, and the margin in polls was narrow for Trump, it's large for Le Pen. Sure it's always possible for Macron to do a massive fumble, and/or for a massive terror attack the day before the election, ... but it's very unlikely for Le Pen to win.

Marine's run a good media campaign so far, not sure why she would open herself to this. We'll see if this has any repercussions in the campaign. The debate on May 3rd should be Marine's biggest moment, because Emmanuel's debating skills are... lacking. If she can nail him down as a globalist capitalist etc. etc. she can reach 40% of the vote or so. If he nails her down on this, she won't get close.

I do have some fear Marine Le Pen will trample over Macron in the debate, and manage to narrow the margin. Not enough to win, but it would be very very sad and worrysome for the future if she manages to get more than 40% of votes.

For example, Mélenchon is widely recognized as a good orator, he can speak for hours (and regularly does so) about whatever without pause and without looking at a paper. Macron is not that, not that Marine is either. Both of their skills are lacking, but Marine has more of an impetus to be on the offensive as she is the 'challenger' in this situation.

Well, Marine Le Pen is a lawyer - not a very good one, but a lawyer still, so she has some experience and training in debate/public speaking/... Macron not as much, as a banker and "haut fonctionnaire", he was more operating in small committees, and it's visible he lacks those skills. I hope he'll manage well enough in the debate so it'll be a virtual draw, that's the best we can hope I guess.

[Stojam]

Hey, at least Louis Aliot can be nice to the Jews, since he has Algerian Jewish heritage, but the question is, will he care?

[Corrian]

Should we maybe take all the people who said "Trump won't win" as a warning?

Trump always had more of a chance than Marine LePen. But a long shot.

[Gauthier]

Should we maybe take all the people who said "Trump won't win" as a warning?

Trump always had more of a chance than Marine LePen. But a long shot.

Geert Wilders tried to ride the Trump Train and got nowhere.

[Olerand]

I do have some fear Marine Le Pen will trample over Macron in the debate, and manage to narrow the margin. Not enough to win, but it would be very very sad and worrysome for the future if she manages to get more than 40% of votes.

I do too, to a certain extent. I don't worry about her winning or whatever, I worry (and I know you won't like this ) about "the market"'s (international speculators) reaction to Marine doing well. State bonds, the worth of French stocks, the like. France is still issuing short-term bonds at a negative rate, for example, and I would very much enjoy it if that can remain the case.

Well, Marine Le Pen is a lawyer - not a very good one, but a lawyer still, so she has some experience and training in debate/public speaking/... Macron not as much, as a banker and "haut fonctionnaire", he was more operating in small committees, and it's visible he lacks those skills. I hope he'll manage well enough in the debate so it'll be a virtual draw, that's the best we can hope I guess.

Did she ever practice? I don't recall. She must have had training though, so that's true.

I think he'll still technically win the debate because most people still won't say Marine did better even if they think she actually did. Kind of another "default vote" for Macron. Though how well she does in the debates can be a factor in how well she can mobilize her base and the working class on April 7.

Hey, at least Louis Aliot can be nice to the Jews, since he has Algerian Jewish heritage, but the question is, will he care?

Don't see why he would. Don't see why you're so focused on this, Marine's not going to do anything to the Jews. Also, Aliot is her partner, is that enough to assuage your fears?

[Stojam]

I do have some fear Marine Le Pen will trample over Macron in the debate, and manage to narrow the margin. Not enough to win, but it would be very very sad and worrysome for the future if she manages to get more than 40% of votes.

I do too, to a certain extent. I don't worry about her winning or whatever, I worry (and I know you won't like this ) about "the market"'s (international speculators) reaction to Marine doing well. State bonds, the worth of French stocks, the like.

Well, Marine Le Pen is a lawyer - not a very good one, but a lawyer still, so she has some experience and training in debate/public speaking/... Macron not as much, as a banker and "haut fonctionnaire", he was more operating in small committees, and it's visible he lacks those skills. I hope he'll manage well enough in the debate so it'll be a virtual draw, that's the best we can hope I guess.

Did she ever practice? I don't recall. She must have had training though, so that's true.

I think he'll still technically win the debate because most people still won't say Marine did better even if they think she actually did. Kind of another "default vote" for Macron. Though how well she does in the debates can be a factor in how well she can mobilize her base and the working class on April 7.

Hey, at least Louis Aliot can be nice to the Jews, since he has Algerian Jewish heritage, but the question is, will he care?

Don't see why he would. Don't see why you're so focused on this, Marine's not going to do anything to the Jews. Also, Aliot is her partner, is that enough to assuage your fears?

Well I don't know! All I know is I support no one, and don't you think Jews have interests in this election? I mean, only a gov't that will be good to Jews...

[Olerand]

I do too, to a certain extent. I don't worry about her winning or whatever, I worry (and I know you won't like this ) about "the market"'s (international speculators) reaction to Marine doing well. State bonds, the worth of French stocks, the like.


Did she ever practice? I don't recall. She must have had training though, so that's true.

I think he'll still technically win the debate because most people still won't say Marine did better even if they think she actually did. Kind of another "default vote" for Macron. Though how well she does in the debates can be a factor in how well she can mobilize her base and the working class on April 7.


Don't see why he would. Don't see why you're so focused on this, Marine's not going to do anything to the Jews. Also, Aliot is her partner, is that enough to assuage your fears?

Well I don't know! All I know is I support no one, and don't you think Jews have interests in this election? I mean, only a gov't that will be good to Jews...

I think French citizens, who might be Jews, practicing or otherwise, definitely do have an interest and should have an interest in this election. Do I think Jews everywhere should be fretting about this? No. Do I think non-French Jews or non-Jews can (and should) have an interest in this election? Sure. Do I think non-French Jews or non-Jews should fret about the fate of Jews in this election? No.

And I don't believe I know the adage you're referring to at the end of your post.

[Herskerstad]

Well I don't know! All I know is I support no one, and don't you think Jews have interests in this election? I mean, only a gov't that will be good to Jews...

I think French citizens, who might be Jews, practicing or otherwise, definitely do have an interest and should have an interest in this election. Do I think Jews everywhere should be fretting about this? No. Do I think non-French Jews or non-Jews can (and should) have an interest in this election? Sure. Do I think non-French Jews or non-Jews should fret about the fate of Jews in this election? No.

And I don't believe I know the adage you're referring to at the end of your post.

I don't think the Jews have anyone that'd remotely be good for them. Le Pen's take has been oddly alienating, and Macron will continue the French exodus to Israel by proxy. If I was Jewish though I'd pick Le Pen.

[Olerand]

I think French citizens, who might be Jews, practicing or otherwise, definitely do have an interest and should have an interest in this election. Do I think Jews everywhere should be fretting about this? No. Do I think non-French Jews or non-Jews can (and should) have an interest in this election? Sure. Do I think non-French Jews or non-Jews should fret about the fate of Jews in this election? No.

And I don't believe I know the adage you're referring to at the end of your post.

I don't think the Jews have anyone that'd remotely be good for them. Le Pen's take has been oddly alienating, and Macron will continue the French exodus to Israel by proxy.

In a way, that is true. What do you mean that Marine's take has been alienating?

[Neu Leonstein]

2. for me.

Fair enough... so what do you think about the "ni, ni" protests and those various campaigns to either vote blank or not go at all?

[Olerand]

2. for me.

Fair enough... so what do you think about the "ni, ni" protests and those various campaigns to either vote blank or not go at all?

Mélenchon has said that he will be voting (so he's not abstaining), and he won't be voting for the FN obviously, and that they should know what that means, so he's voting for Macron.
He's also said that he refuses to tell people to vote for Macron because he thinks voting is an act of adhesion, and he does not adhere to, nor does he think those who voted for him, adhere to Macron. He also doesn't want to dillute his electorate and wants them to stay grouped for the legislatives, where in fairness, la France Insoumise could come out as the biggest force on the left, having overtaken the PS.

[Herskerstad]

I don't think the Jews have anyone that'd remotely be good for them. Le Pen's take has been oddly alienating, and Macron will continue the French exodus to Israel by proxy.

In a way, that is true. What do you mean that Marine's take has been alienating?

Some of her statements in that appertain to issues related to Jews have been less than politically sanitary as has her party.

That being said, Macron has given little inclination of stopping the issues that face them, and indeed seems to want to indirectly accelerate them with his migration ideas.

[Olerand]

In a way, that is true. What do you mean that Marine's take has been alienating?

Some of her statements in that appertain to issues related to Jews have been less than politically sanitary as has her party.

That being said, Macron has given little inclination of stopping the issues that face them, and indeed seems to want to indirectly accelerate them with his migration ideas.

Her party, yeah, as we have seen with the interim president. What has she said?

[Olerand]

In a rather surprising development—and perhaps as a sign of the success of Marine's legitimization scheme and the greater cross-over occurring between the radical right and the right—Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, leader of the National Conservative/Neo-Gaullist Debout la France, has brought his support to Marine. He got about 4,7% of the vote, so obviously he's not going to tip the scales, but this is symbolically important as this is the first time the FN has received the support of a "mainstream" political party (other than the meandering game that the RPR used to engage in with the FN in the 1980s and 90s).

I wonder how many of Fillon's voters, considering his hard right candidacy, are considering doing the same, or abstaining or voting white/corrupting their vote.

[Neu Leonstein]

In a rather surprising development—and perhaps as a sign of the success of Marine's legitimization scheme and the greater cross-over occurring between the radical right and the right—Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, leader of the National Conservative/Neo-Gaullist Debout la France, has brought his support to Marine. He got about 4,7% of the vote, so obviously he's not going to tip the scales, but this is symbolically important as this is the first time the FN has received the support of a "mainstream" political party (other than the meandering game that the RPR used to engage in with the FN in the 1980s and 90s).

I wonder how many of Fillon's voters, considering his hard right candidacy, are considering doing the same, or abstaining or voting white/corrupting their vote.

Yeah, but that was expected, wasn't it? I mean, he is even more crazy anti-European than she is. I'm not sure what counts as "mainstream", but he would've been first (or maybe second after Asselineau) on my list of unsuccessful first round candidates to join her.

Anyway, those exit poll analyses had something like 35-40% of Fillon voters switching to Le Pen. She's gotta get from 20 to 40% somehow.

[Olerand]

In a rather surprising development—and perhaps as a sign of the success of Marine's legitimization scheme and the greater cross-over occurring between the radical right and the right—Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, leader of the National Conservative/Neo-Gaullist Debout la France, has brought his support to Marine. He got about 4,7% of the vote, so obviously he's not going to tip the scales, but this is symbolically important as this is the first time the FN has received the support of a "mainstream" political party (other than the meandering game that the RPR used to engage in with the FN in the 1980s and 90s).

I wonder how many of Fillon's voters, considering his hard right candidacy, are considering doing the same, or abstaining or voting white/corrupting their vote.

Yeah, but that was expected, wasn't it? I mean, he is even more crazy anti-European than she is. I'm not sure what counts as "mainstream", but he would've been first (or maybe second after Asselineau) on my list of unsuccessful first round candidates to join her.

Anyway, those exit poll analyses had something like 35-40% of Fillon voters switching to Le Pen. She's gotta get from 20 to 40% somehow.

Not really. Though Dupony-Aignan was certainly right and anti-Europe, he was still "mainstream", so to speak.

Though it is true that if someone were to join her, he indeed would be a very likely choice (and he did obviously). I don't actually know if Asselineau has made any comments, not that that would make much of a difference of course.

As for Fillon's voters, I've seen those polls, but I don't know how much of his electorate say they'll do it under the heat of the moment and then don't; or alternatively, still feel stigma about voting FN and say they won't do it but actually plan on doing it. Fillon ran a rather hard right campaign, so we'll have to see.

EDIT: I should clarify that though this is rather unexpected, it's not totally out of the blue. The FN has made it very clear that they were trying to win over DlF for a while now, it just wasn't guaranteed.

[Kilobugya]

2. for me.

Fair enough... so what do you think about the "ni, ni" protests and those various campaigns to either vote blank or not go at all?

Well, to be fair the economic policies of Macron are pretty much antagonists to the ones of Mélenchon, and Macron being a former banker doesn't help either... so it's not surprising some of Mélenchon voters don't want to vote for Macron. I think they underestimate the risk that Marine Le Pen represents, but well, I can't really blame them for not voting Macron. But they are a vocal minority of the Mélenchon voters, the majority of Mélenchon voters will vote Macron.

[Kilobugya]

I wonder how many of Fillon's voters, considering his hard right candidacy, are considering doing the same, or abstaining or voting white/corrupting their vote.

From what I've seen in polls, they'll be around 40-45% to vote Macron, 20-30% to vote Le Pen and 20-30% to not vote. While Mélenchon voters are like 45-55% voting Macron, 30-40% not voting, and 10-20% voting Le Pen. So slightly more Le Pen vote for Fillon voters than for Mélenchon voters, but roughly similar, a small majority for Macron, lots of not voting/voting blank, and a significant minority voting Le Pen.

[Ariddia]

Anyway, we have a few Melenchon supporters in the thread. I was wondering...

1. Would you support Macron on substance, i.e. for his policies?
2. Would you vote Macron just to stop Le Pen?
3. If you didn't plan to vote for Macron, and Melenchon came out on 6 May and say 'I'll vote Macron and maybe you should too', would that change your position at all?

2. for me.

Same here. I'll vote for Macron, for one reason only: to help try to bring Le Pen's score down. She clearly won't be elected (thank goodness), but I want the far-right's score to be as low as possible.

so what do you think about the "ni, ni" protests and those various campaigns to either vote blank or not go at all?

I don't think abstaining is a valid option. I can understand those who want to vote blank, on the following basis: Macron will win anyway, so he doesn't need everyone's votes, and people on the left aren't too keen to endorse his policies.

I can understand that reasoning, and I sympathise with it, but I'll be voting for Macron all the same, as it's the only way to lower the far-right's score. What I'm worried about, though, is that five years of Macron's short-termism and liberal economics will boost the far-right for the next elections in five years...

Mélenchon has said that he will be voting (so he's not abstaining), and he won't be voting for the FN obviously, and that they should know what that means, so he's voting for Macron.

Indeed, he implied quite clearly today that he'll be voting for Macron.

[Minoa]

Source: http://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/ ... 43557.html

Juppé, also putting aside his differences, backs Macron. I can understand those who want to vote blank, but Le Pen and her party is a danger not to the establishment alone, but to humanity as a whole. In contrast Macron is someone that we can negotiate with.

By the way, Debout la France is a minor party because they have only one National Assembly seat and nothing else.