French presidential primaries

[Ostroeuropa]

He's also not in the lead.

But he'll be among the choices during the first round voting. Juppé is most likely to succeed to the second round.

Before the vote, polls suggested that he could beat Mr Juppé; one pollster, OpinionWay, put the margin at 54% to 46%.

[Thermodolia]

But he'll be among the choices during the first round voting. Juppé is most likely to succeed to the second round.

Before the vote, polls suggested that he could beat Mr Juppé; one pollster, OpinionWay, put the margin at 54% to 46%.

Can I have the source for that.

[Ostroeuropa]

Can I have the source for that.

The OP mate.

So.

Catholic Theocrats in bed with globalist elites, V the nationalists. Like I said. They're gonna be happy with this result. The left and working class votes were already the ones the new far-right was pilfering best at, and an anti-gay thatcherite as their second choice may be too much for them to hold their nose on compared to giving the front a shot.

[Gauthier]

"Let's oppose FN by kicking out the Muslims before they do!"

[Thermodolia]

Can I have the source for that.

The OP mate.

Interesting. But remember all of the polls said that Clinton would win. It just says that he's the favorite not the winner. Besides the Socialists have yet to nominate their party candidate.

They are all mostly catholic.

[Ostroeuropa]

The OP mate.

Interesting. But remember all of the polls said that Clinton would win. It just says that he's the favorite not the winner. Besides the Socialists have yet to nominate their party candidate.

They are all mostly catholic.

That much is true. Polls have been terrible this year.

[Les Anglos-Saxons]

So the choice will be a nationalist aligned with the new far/alt-right, or an anti-gay catholic thatcherite.

You can bet the alt-right are celebrating the result.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dmt45BF5SOM

Compare the polls on acceptance of gays V acceptance of muslims.
Look at the unpopularity of neoliberalism.

The only thing he'll have going for him is panic over "The-Far Right" and pro-EU voters. That panic will dull as the grassroots does what they can to frame the issue around his social conservatism and present the new far right as a more palatable and modern alternative.

While Le Pen may still not win, it just got a lot more viable.

It's a different world, don't even try to understand how they can't fuck up. They're superior.

[Dameth]

So, my two cents on the right wing primary as a frenchman.

Right now the duel is fought between Fillon and Jupé, both have ideas I don't share but both are respectable people. Due to the state of the left and the garantee the whole left will mobilize to vote against Le Pen, whoever wins this debates will become our next president.

Jupé is an oldschool stateman, of the Gaullist school of thought. Expect a reinforcement of the state and a larger french presence on the international scene. On the interior scene, we can expect immigration control at the fronteers of the shengen space and tougher laws on immigration.
Fillon is a liberal who is more accustiomed to follow orders than to give them, however he values loyalty and is a man of principle. I believe his focus will probably be more on the interior scene with lower taxes and focus on the industry. Fillon also has a better understanding of the working of the european union when it comes to the industry and we can expect the focus to be on maintaining the country above the european standards in matter of our national production.

All in all, they are pretty much the same. Jupé is just "tougher", let's say. Fillon should however win without problems.

Also : us french value what we call laïcité above partisan politics. Both Fillon and Jupé will uphold that principle, you can rest assured of that.

Aaaaand yeah. The alt right may be wise not to get their panties in a bunch. We're not britbongs and we're not going to run from europe with our tail between our legs. Whoever understands french politics also understands the FN will not win in a thousand year. Both mainstream parties are known to ally as soon as the threat become tangible and you need a bit more than 20% voters to counteract that.

[Thermodolia]

So, my two cents on the right wing primary as a frenchman.

Right now the duel is fought between Fillon and Jupé, both have ideas I don't share but both are respectable people. Due to the state of the left and the garantee the whole left will mobilize to vote against Le Pen, whoever wins this debates will become our next president.

Jupé is an oldschool stateman, of the Gaullist school of thought. Expect a reinforcement of the state and a larger french presence on the international scene. On the interior scene, we can expect immigration control at the fronteers of the shengen space and tougher laws on immigration.
Fillon is a liberal who is more accustiomed to follow orders than to give them, however he values loyalty and is a man of principle. I believe his focus will probably be more on the interior scene with lower taxes and focus on the industry. Fillon also has a better understanding of the working of the european union when it comes to the industry and we can expect the focus to be on maintaining the country above the european standards in matter of our national production.

All in all, they are pretty much the same. Jupé is just "tougher", let's say. Fillon should however win without problems.

Also : us french value what we call laïcité above partisan politics. Both Fillon and Jupé will uphold that principle, you can rest assured of that.

The second round polls back that up. Le Pen loses against Fillon and Juppé in every single poll by 30%. Either Fillon or Juppé will be president not Le Pen.

Also true as the polls even show her losing against Macron from En Marche! by the same 30% margin

[Ostroeuropa]

So, my two cents on the right wing primary as a frenchman.

Right now the duel is fought between Fillon and Jupé, both have ideas I don't share but both are respectable people. Due to the state of the left and the garantee the whole left will mobilize to vote against Le Pen, whoever wins this debates will become our next president.

Jupé is an oldschool stateman, of the Gaullist school of thought. Expect a reinforcement of the state and a larger french presence on the international scene. On the interior scene, we can expect immigration control at the fronteers of the shengen space and tougher laws on immigration.
Fillon is a liberal who is more accustiomed to follow orders than to give them, however he values loyalty and is a man of principle. I believe his focus will probably be more on the interior scene with lower taxes and focus on the industry. Fillon also has a better understanding of the working of the european union when it comes to the industry and we can expect the focus to be on maintaining the country above the european standards in matter of our national production.

All in all, they are pretty much the same. Jupé is just "tougher", let's say. Fillon should however win without problems.

Also : us french value what we call laïcité above partisan politics. Both Fillon and Jupé will uphold that principle, you can rest assured of that.

The second round polls back that up. Le Pen loses against Fillon and Juppé in every single poll by 30%. Either Fillon or Juppé will be president not Le Pen.

Provided she retains momentum, it's enough to force her platform into the other parties. In many ways its already happening.

[Dameth]

The second round polls back that up. Le Pen loses against Fillon and Juppé in every single poll by 30%. Either Fillon or Juppé will be president not Le Pen.

It's not far fetched to say the whole Vth republic is built as a safeguard against fascism. Le Pen is not Trump, she is not Farrage, she's the brainchild of Mch Petain. She can surely count on the millenial vote to up her vote and her niece is smoking hot, but that's pretty much all she has.

If she wins against the socialist party, as her father did in 2002 the whole political spectrum will vote for whoever the UMP/Republicains put in front of her, up to the far left.

There is just not a shred of hope she earns anything aside bragging rights

> She will put her platform onto other parties

No party will ever ally themselves with the FN. Fringe punctual alliances may exist at the local level, not at the national level.

[Thermodolia]

The second round polls back that up. Le Pen loses against Fillon and Juppé in every single poll by 30%. Either Fillon or Juppé will be president not Le Pen.

Provided she retains momentum, it's enough to force her platform into the other parties. In many ways its already happening.

She's lost every single second round poll done, with the exception of the Hollande-Le Pen polls though she only wins a few of those. She's losing against Macron.

[Ostroeuropa]

Provided she retains momentum, it's enough to force her platform into the other parties. In many ways its already happening.

She's lost every single second round poll done, with the exception of the Hollande-Le Pen polls though she only wins a few of those. She's losing against Macron.

Doesn't matter, provided her share increases from last time.

[Thermodolia]

The second round polls back that up. Le Pen loses against Fillon and Juppé in every single poll by 30%. Either Fillon or Juppé will be president not Le Pen.

It's not far fetched to say the whole Vth republic is built as a safeguard against fascism. Le Pen is not Trump, she is not Farrage, she's the brainchild of Mch Petain. She can surely count on the millenial vote to up her vote and her niece is smoking hot, but that's pretty much all she has.

If she wins against the socialist party, as her father did in 2002 the whole political spectrum will vote for whoever the UMP/Republicains put in front of her, up to the far left.

There is just not a shred of hope she earns anything aside bragging rights

And no one will care about bragging rights in the next few years. The Alt-right can't use the same tactics that they did in the US and the UK and expect them to work in France it's just not going to work. And thank god it won't.

[Thermodolia]

She's lost every single second round poll done, with the exception of the Hollande-Le Pen polls though she only wins a few of those. She's losing against Macron.

Doesn't matter, provided her share increases from last time.

From the first round? She can barely get more than 28% in the first round. How the hell is she going to win in the Second round? Especially against a unified right and left.

[Dameth]

There is just not a shred of hope she earns anything aside bragging rights

And no one will care about bragging rights in the next few years. The Alt-right can't use the same tactics that they did in the US and the UK and expect them to work in France it's just not going to work. And thank god it won't.[/quote]

To be honest as a french man I'm very happy Trump crushed Hillary because she deserves it, and to get rid of the brits soon because they are a pain in the butt in the european process. Also we will send as we told them, all the migrants in Calais as the result of the cancellation of the Bilateral Accords, and it's all good because having british police on french territory pisses me off to no end.

[Eol Sha]

It's not far fetched to say the whole Vth republic is built as a safeguard against fascism. Le Pen is not Trump, she is not Farrage, she's the brainchild of Mch Petain. She can surely count on the millenial vote to up her vote and her niece is smoking hot, but that's pretty much all she has.

If she wins against the socialist party, as her father did in 2002 the whole political spectrum will vote for whoever the UMP/Republicains put in front of her, up to the far left.

There is just not a shred of hope she earns anything aside bragging rights

And no one will care about bragging rights in the next few years. The Alt-right can't use the same tactics that they did in the US and the UK and expect them to work in France it's just not going to work. And thank god it won't.

Why can't they?

[Dameth]

Why can't they?

Because the Vth republic is designed to absorb shock from the extremes. The right and the left have to fall in the same time for the FN or any other extremist group have their way at the national level

[Thermodolia]

Why can't they?

Because the Vth republic is designed to absorb shock from the extremes. The right and the left have to fall in the same time for the FN or any other extremist group have their way at the national level

And even if Le Pen wins the presidency the National Assembly will still remain in the hands of the socialists or the Republicans and not F.N. Because how F.N. will grow from just 3 seats to 292 is beyond me.

[Eol Sha]

Why can't they?

Because the Vth republic is designed to absorb shock from the extremes.

How so?

[Dameth]

And even if Le Pen wins the presidency the National Assembly will still remain in the hands of the socialists or the Republicans and not F.N. Because how F.N. will grow from just 3 seats to 292 is beyond me.

The tactic of the FN is not a dumb one, and the daughter is actually ways more intelligent than her father who is just an old very rich skinhead. They try and accumulate punctual victories on the local level through alliances by either socialists or UMP/Republicains by playing their divisions. It can work punctually and she capitalizes on it, but it will come crashing down when there is a black and white choice to make.

The worst possible scenario is someone from the socialist party to fall in front of her... and that will not happen.

>Eol Sha :

Because UMP and Socialists ally themselves if the FN gets threatening. The only way to a third party to acquire relevance is to an alliance game (communists and green do that for instance), and the FN is stuck in the fringe of the political system. UMP do not want them.

[Thermodolia]

And even if Le Pen wins the presidency the National Assembly will still remain in the hands of the socialists or the Republicans and not F.N. Because how F.N. will grow from just 3 seats to 292 is beyond me.

The tactic of the FN is not a dumb one, and the daughter is actually ways more intelligent than her father who is just an old very rich skinhead. They try and accumulate punctual victories on the local level through alliances by either socialists or UMP/Republicains by playing their divisions. It can work punctually and she capitalizes on it, but it will come crashing down when there is a black and white choice to make.

The worst possible scenario is someone from the socialist party to fall in front of her... and that will not happen.

Like Hollande?

[Dameth]

Like Hollande?

Falling against Hollande or one of his ilks is the only reasonable chance Le Pen has to win, because socialists are demoralized and UMP may divide their votes between socialists and FN, while socialists will vote for UMP in masses.

[Thermodolia]

Like Hollande?

Falling against Hollande or one of his ilks is the only reasonable chance Le Pen has to win, because socialists are demoralized and UMP may divide their votes between socialists and FN, while socialists will vote for UMP in masses.

I see. Though it doesn't look like that's going to happen at all.

[Eol Sha]

Whoever understands french politics also understands the FN will not win in a thousand year. Both mainstream parties are known to ally as soon as the threat become tangible and you need a bit more than 20% voters to counteract that.

Can you provide an example of this happening?