US Gen. Election Thread FINALE - Votegeddon

[Senkaku]

Regarding the electoral college and rural voters, I have a rather surprising finding.

The EC doesn't favor them significantly. The EC favors small-population states, but those are not consistently rural states.

The states which have the most rural population, is surprising in itself. Places like Utah and Nevada with lots of open space are not particularly rural states (the open space doesn't have many people in it). And the two most rural states (biggest percentage of state population being rural) are two very liberal states: Maine and Vermont.

Urban and rural population by state (XLS spreadsheet) from US Census 2010

First, I'll graph all the states. Mainly so I won't be accused of cherry picking.

(Image)

Now, the states whose voters are advantaged by the Electoral College. Roughly speaking, the smaller the population of a state, the more advantaged its voters are. This is because every state gets 2 bonus Electors regardless of the number of House districts. But it's not strictly so, because the number of House districts per state only approximates the State's share of national population.

I've used someone else's calculations here to eliminate states whose voters are disadvantaged (Texas, California etc) compared to the average US voter.

The average is gotten by dividing the national population by the total number of electors. National population is 313 million because that was the estimate in 2012 (the year of Fzxboy's calculations) and there are 538 Electors. It comes to 581.8 thousand persons per Elector. States with more persons per Elector are eliminated. I also excluded Ohio since I can't tell if it's above or below that line, so it's not clearly advantaged.
I've also marked the MOST advantaged states: 7 states where the Electoral representation is more than twice the national average. Unsurprisingly they are among the least populous.

(Image)

That's basically my case for why advantaging the least populous states does not significantly advantage RURAL voters.

For anyone who doesn't trust the method of determining 'advantaged' or 'disadvantaged' states, I've also used a simpler method. Here are the 25 least populous states, plus DC:

(Image)

I think people have been conflating rural states with smaller or underdeveloped or powerless or irrelevant states or states with small populations, when there isn't always a correlation there. (See: Rhode Island, Delaware, etc.)

[Arlenton]

"Reverse racism isn’t real. No, really." -Zeba Blay, Huffington Post

"That’s right, my friends. Air conditioning is another big, sexist plot." -Petula Dvorak, Washington Post

"Let us lament the fact that the white men we do have as hosts may not recognize their own privilege. But let us also hold them responsible for it, and demand better." -Elena Zhang, Paste

"Yes, All White People Raised in America are Racist." - Stephanie Monk, Onyx

"29 Stupid Things White People Do and What We Can Do Instead" -Baltimore Racial Justice Action

"#SayNoToMistletoe because it promotes rape cultures and allows male misogynistic tendencies to manifest themselves in reality." -proud feminist, Twitter

"The Tampon is a MALE invention designed to OPPRESS women into RAPING themselves and spending their hard-earned money. #freebleeding" Roaring_Womyn, Twitter

New Republican campaign strategy, tie progressive policies to this crap. Southern Strategy 2.0

[Valrifell]

"Reverse racism isn’t real. No, really." -Zeba Blay, Huffington Post

"That’s right, my friends. Air conditioning is another big, sexist plot." -Petula Dvorak, Washington Post

"Let us lament the fact that the white men we do have as hosts may not recognize their own privilege. But let us also hold them responsible for it, and demand better." -Elena Zhang, Paste

"Yes, All White People Raised in America are Racist." - Stephanie Monk, Onyx

"29 Stupid Things White People Do and What We Can Do Instead" -Baltimore Racial Justice Action

"#SayNoToMistletoe because it promotes rape cultures and allows male misogynistic tendencies to manifest themselves in reality." -proud feminist, Twitter

"The Tampon is a MALE invention designed to OPPRESS women into RAPING themselves and spending their hard-earned money. #freebleeding" Roaring_Womyn, Twitter

New Republican campaign strategy, tie progressive policies to this crap. Southern Strategy 2.0

That's what you lot have been doing, no?

[Ebliania]

"Reverse racism isn’t real. No, really." -Zeba Blay, Huffington Post

"That’s right, my friends. Air conditioning is another big, sexist plot." -Petula Dvorak, Washington Post

"Let us lament the fact that the white men we do have as hosts may not recognize their own privilege. But let us also hold them responsible for it, and demand better." -Elena Zhang, Paste

"Yes, All White People Raised in America are Racist." - Stephanie Monk, Onyx

"29 Stupid Things White People Do and What We Can Do Instead" -Baltimore Racial Justice Action

"#SayNoToMistletoe because it promotes rape cultures and allows male misogynistic tendencies to manifest themselves in reality." -proud feminist, Twitter

"The Tampon is a MALE invention designed to OPPRESS women into RAPING themselves and spending their hard-earned money. #freebleeding" Roaring_Womyn, Twitter

New Republican campaign strategy, tie progressive policies to this crap. Southern Strategy 2.0

Watch Milo Stewart's videos. Cringe.

Also throw some improvements towards the Rust Belt to secure them. Accentuates the message: the Democrats don't care about you.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

"Reverse racism isn’t real. No, really." -Zeba Blay, Huffington Post

"That’s right, my friends. Air conditioning is another big, sexist plot." -Petula Dvorak, Washington Post

"Let us lament the fact that the white men we do have as hosts may not recognize their own privilege. But let us also hold them responsible for it, and demand better." -Elena Zhang, Paste

"Yes, All White People Raised in America are Racist." - Stephanie Monk, Onyx

"29 Stupid Things White People Do and What We Can Do Instead" -Baltimore Racial Justice Action

"#SayNoToMistletoe because it promotes rape cultures and allows male misogynistic tendencies to manifest themselves in reality." -proud feminist, Twitter

"The Tampon is a MALE invention designed to OPPRESS women into RAPING themselves and spending their hard-earned money. #freebleeding" Roaring_Womyn, Twitter

New Republican campaign strategy, tie progressive policies to this crap. Southern Strategy 2.0

That would not be wise for the party...

[Washington Resistance Army]

"Reverse racism isn’t real. No, really." -Zeba Blay, Huffington Post

"That’s right, my friends. Air conditioning is another big, sexist plot." -Petula Dvorak, Washington Post

"Let us lament the fact that the white men we do have as hosts may not recognize their own privilege. But let us also hold them responsible for it, and demand better." -Elena Zhang, Paste

"Yes, All White People Raised in America are Racist." - Stephanie Monk, Onyx

"29 Stupid Things White People Do and What We Can Do Instead" -Baltimore Racial Justice Action

"#SayNoToMistletoe because it promotes rape cultures and allows male misogynistic tendencies to manifest themselves in reality." -proud feminist, Twitter

"The Tampon is a MALE invention designed to OPPRESS women into RAPING themselves and spending their hard-earned money. #freebleeding" Roaring_Womyn, Twitter

New Republican campaign strategy, tie progressive policies to this crap. Southern Strategy 2.0

That doesn't seem like that new of a strategy tbh.

[Sack Jackpot Winners]

"Reverse racism isn’t real. No, really." -Zeba Blay, Huffington Post

"That’s right, my friends. Air conditioning is another big, sexist plot." -Petula Dvorak, Washington Post

"Let us lament the fact that the white men we do have as hosts may not recognize their own privilege. But let us also hold them responsible for it, and demand better." -Elena Zhang, Paste

"Yes, All White People Raised in America are Racist." - Stephanie Monk, Onyx

"29 Stupid Things White People Do and What We Can Do Instead" -Baltimore Racial Justice Action

"#SayNoToMistletoe because it promotes rape cultures and allows male misogynistic tendencies to manifest themselves in reality." -proud feminist, Twitter

"The Tampon is a MALE invention designed to OPPRESS women into RAPING themselves and spending their hard-earned money. #freebleeding" Roaring_Womyn, Twitter

New Republican campaign strategy, tie progressive policies to this crap. Southern Strategy 2.0

When American progressivism is proud of stuff like this, then it's not hard to tie them to it.

[Ebliania]

"Reverse racism isn’t real. No, really." -Zeba Blay, Huffington Post

"That’s right, my friends. Air conditioning is another big, sexist plot." -Petula Dvorak, Washington Post

"Let us lament the fact that the white men we do have as hosts may not recognize their own privilege. But let us also hold them responsible for it, and demand better." -Elena Zhang, Paste

"Yes, All White People Raised in America are Racist." - Stephanie Monk, Onyx

"29 Stupid Things White People Do and What We Can Do Instead" -Baltimore Racial Justice Action

"#SayNoToMistletoe because it promotes rape cultures and allows male misogynistic tendencies to manifest themselves in reality." -proud feminist, Twitter

"The Tampon is a MALE invention designed to OPPRESS women into RAPING themselves and spending their hard-earned money. #freebleeding" Roaring_Womyn, Twitter

New Republican campaign strategy, tie progressive policies to this crap. Southern Strategy 2.0

That doesn't seem like that new of a strategy tbh.

Combine them with making the Rust Belt great again. They're the ones who'll fight for you, not the Dems.

[Arlenton]

"Reverse racism isn’t real. No, really." -Zeba Blay, Huffington Post

"That’s right, my friends. Air conditioning is another big, sexist plot." -Petula Dvorak, Washington Post

"Let us lament the fact that the white men we do have as hosts may not recognize their own privilege. But let us also hold them responsible for it, and demand better." -Elena Zhang, Paste

"Yes, All White People Raised in America are Racist." - Stephanie Monk, Onyx

"29 Stupid Things White People Do and What We Can Do Instead" -Baltimore Racial Justice Action

"#SayNoToMistletoe because it promotes rape cultures and allows male misogynistic tendencies to manifest themselves in reality." -proud feminist, Twitter

"The Tampon is a MALE invention designed to OPPRESS women into RAPING themselves and spending their hard-earned money. #freebleeding" Roaring_Womyn, Twitter

New Republican campaign strategy, tie progressive policies to this crap. Southern Strategy 2.0

That's what you lot have been doing, no?

Sort of. Not really on a big level though. I feel like 2016 is the first election where some of this stuff was leaking into the mainstream, look all over media.

A gaffe machine with no political experience just beat the first major party female nominee who was very much qualified, and I see evidence that some of this is because of the "SJW" stuff. A hint to Republicans on what scare tactics to use next, and awake up call to Democrats to denounce this or suffer the consequences.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

So Trump won right?

Does that mean Jon Stewart will come back to the Daly Show?

[Washington Resistance Army]

That doesn't seem like that new of a strategy tbh.

Combine them with making the Rust Belt great again. They're the ones who'll fight for you, not the Dems.

Going for the rust belt is a great idea for the GOP imo. I feel like they could start to make the area more red if they spent some time working on it.

[Arlenton]

"Reverse racism isn’t real. No, really." -Zeba Blay, Huffington Post

"That’s right, my friends. Air conditioning is another big, sexist plot." -Petula Dvorak, Washington Post

"Let us lament the fact that the white men we do have as hosts may not recognize their own privilege. But let us also hold them responsible for it, and demand better." -Elena Zhang, Paste

"Yes, All White People Raised in America are Racist." - Stephanie Monk, Onyx

"29 Stupid Things White People Do and What We Can Do Instead" -Baltimore Racial Justice Action

"#SayNoToMistletoe because it promotes rape cultures and allows male misogynistic tendencies to manifest themselves in reality." -proud feminist, Twitter

"The Tampon is a MALE invention designed to OPPRESS women into RAPING themselves and spending their hard-earned money. #freebleeding" Roaring_Womyn, Twitter

New Republican campaign strategy, tie progressive policies to this crap. Southern Strategy 2.0

That doesn't seem like that new of a strategy tbh.

You're right in a way. I guess this is basically the hard-core leftists giving us more ammo and this election showing that it very much is useful in the Midwest.

[The East Marches]

That doesn't seem like that new of a strategy tbh.

Combine them with making the Rust Belt great again. They're the ones who'll fight for you, not the Dems.

That could work very well. It would certainly play to the populations there. "Progressive" could easily become a pejorative in those areas quickly. My area still uses the old lingo of "liberal".

[Ebliania]

Combine them with making the Rust Belt great again. They're the ones who'll fight for you, not the Dems.

That could work very well. It would certainly play to the populations there. "Progressive" could easily become a pejorative in those areas quickly. My area still uses the old lingo of "liberal".

Yes. But in order to hammer the message in you have to improve the area first.

[Arlenton]

That could work very well. It would certainly play to the populations there. "Progressive" could easily become a pejorative in those areas quickly. My area still uses the old lingo of "liberal".

Yes. But in order to hammer the message in you have to improve the area first.

That's why I'm hoping for a successful Trump administration. I'm probably much more optimistic than most people though.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

That's what you lot have been doing, no?

Sort of. Not really on a big level though. I feel like 2016 is the first election where some of this stuff was leaking into the mainstream, look all over media.

A gaffe machine with no political experience just beat the first major party female nominee who was very much qualified, and I see evidence that some of this is because of the "SJW" stuff. A hint to Republicans on what scare tactics to use next, and awake up call to Democrats to denounce this or suffer the consequences.

I'd say not to tack it to progressivism.

Because you may end up with a progressive candidate that you like.

A more effective strategy is just to peg it to Democrats instead.

[Vassenor]

That's what you lot have been doing, no?

Sort of. Not really on a big level though. I feel like 2016 is the first election where some of this stuff was leaking into the mainstream, look all over media.

A gaffe machine with no political experience just beat the first major party female nominee who was very much qualified, and I see evidence that some of this is because of the "SJW" stuff. A hint to Republicans on what scare tactics to use next, and awake up call to Democrats to denounce this or suffer the consequences.

You do realise we've been calling that stuff stupid since it started right?

[Arlenton]

Combine them with making the Rust Belt great again. They're the ones who'll fight for you, not the Dems.

That could work very well. It would certainly play to the populations there. "Progressive" could easily become a pejorative in those areas quickly. My area still uses the old lingo of "liberal".

Do to Michigan what we did to Mississippi. Amazing.

[Ebliania]

Sort of. Not really on a big level though. I feel like 2016 is the first election where some of this stuff was leaking into the mainstream, look all over media.

A gaffe machine with no political experience just beat the first major party female nominee who was very much qualified, and I see evidence that some of this is because of the "SJW" stuff. A hint to Republicans on what scare tactics to use next, and awake up call to Democrats to denounce this or suffer the consequences.

You do realise we've been calling that stuff stupid since it started right?

Doesn't have to be true.

[The East Marches]

That could work very well. It would certainly play to the populations there. "Progressive" could easily become a pejorative in those areas quickly. My area still uses the old lingo of "liberal".

Yes. But in order to hammer the message in you have to improve the area first.

Thats the key. If the Republicans want to pull it off, they have to funnel money into those areas (how they do so is up for debate). At least enough to make people want more nice things.

[The East Marches]

Sort of. Not really on a big level though. I feel like 2016 is the first election where some of this stuff was leaking into the mainstream, look all over media.

A gaffe machine with no political experience just beat the first major party female nominee who was very much qualified, and I see evidence that some of this is because of the "SJW" stuff. A hint to Republicans on what scare tactics to use next, and awake up call to Democrats to denounce this or suffer the consequences.

You do realise we've been calling that stuff stupid since it started right?

Not really, you are one of the main defenders of it. Then when you are defeated, you accuse people of stalking and/or racism.

[Arlenton]

Sort of. Not really on a big level though. I feel like 2016 is the first election where some of this stuff was leaking into the mainstream, look all over media.

A gaffe machine with no political experience just beat the first major party female nominee who was very much qualified, and I see evidence that some of this is because of the "SJW" stuff. A hint to Republicans on what scare tactics to use next, and awake up call to Democrats to denounce this or suffer the consequences.

You do realise we've been calling that stuff stupid since it started right?

Doesn't matter. Convince Midwestern whites this is the ideology of progressives.

Who are they going to believe? Real, hard working Americans who want to make their country great again? Or a wild-eyed Liberal hippies who think tampons are rape?

[Geilinor]

Combine them with making the Rust Belt great again. They're the ones who'll fight for you, not the Dems.

That could work very well. It would certainly play to the populations there. "Progressive" could easily become a pejorative in those areas quickly. My area still uses the old lingo of "liberal".

Isn't that what Republicans used to do before the 1960's? I don't think Republicans will be developing a progressive wing anytime soon though.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

You do realise we've been calling that stuff stupid since it started right?

Doesn't matter. Convince Midwestern white this is the ideology of progressives.

Who are they goign to believe? Real, hard working Americans who want to make their country great again? Or a wild-eyed Liberal hippies who think tampons are rape?

Sort of. Not really on a big level though. I feel like 2016 is the first election where some of this stuff was leaking into the mainstream, look all over media.

A gaffe machine with no political experience just beat the first major party female nominee who was very much qualified, and I see evidence that some of this is because of the "SJW" stuff. A hint to Republicans on what scare tactics to use next, and awake up call to Democrats to denounce this or suffer the consequences.

I'd say not to tack it to progressivism.

Because you may end up with a progressive candidate that you like.

A more effective strategy is just to peg it to Democrats instead.

[Arlenton]

Doesn't matter. Convince Midwestern white this is the ideology of progressives.

Who are they goign to believe? Real, hard working Americans who want to make their country great again? Or a wild-eyed Liberal hippies who think tampons are rape?

I'd say not to tack it to progressivism.

Because you may end up with a progressive candidate that you like.

A more effective strategy is just to peg it to Democrats instead.

We have already tied "Liberal" to Democrats, we're beginning to do the same with "progressive". I see it first hand on Republican politicians social media. They always used to say stuff like "failed liberal policies", but now "liberal-progressive".

And trust me, I don't think there will be any progressive candidates I'd vote for.