US Gen. Election Thread V: The Hunt for Red October Surprise

[The Adonalsium]

I live in Rhode Island and surprisingly, all I see is Trump signs and I haven't seen a single Hillary poster yet at all. Closest I've seen is a bumper sticker and that's it, literally

I live in Arkansas and I have two neighbors, one clearly supporting Trump and one clearly supporting Hillary, who for the past couple months have been trying to outdo each other with signage.

I counted 17 signs in the Hillary yard and 19 in the Trump yard day before yesterday.

I went by today, and all the Trump signs were gone.

Aww, Seriously!! that war of lawn signs sounds youtube worthy!

[The Portland Territory]

I live in Rhode Island and surprisingly, all I see is Trump signs and I haven't seen a single Hillary poster yet at all. Closest I've seen is a bumper sticker and that's it, literally

I live in Arkansas and I have two neighbors, one clearly supporting Trump and one clearly supporting Hillary, who for the past couple months have been trying to outdo each other with signage.

I counted 17 signs in the Hillary yard and 19 in the Trump yard day before yesterday.

I went by today, and all the Trump signs were gone.

Hm, stolen? That happens a lot where I live, happened to me and my neighbors. Anyways, I've never seen a single Hillary poster nor a Trump poster taken down.

[Galloism]

I live in Arkansas and I have two neighbors, one clearly supporting Trump and one clearly supporting Hillary, who for the past couple months have been trying to outdo each other with signage.

I counted 17 signs in the Hillary yard and 19 in the Trump yard day before yesterday.

I went by today, and all the Trump signs were gone.

Aww, Seriously!! that war of lawn signs sounds youtube worthy!

I was expecting ridiculous busts of their candidate's heads any day now.

[The Adonalsium]

Aww, Seriously!! that war of lawn signs sounds youtube worthy!

I was expecting ridiculous busts of their candidate's heads any day now.

LOL! if that happens you MUST Meme that... Hilary bust in a field of Hilary flags.... it sounds hilarious!

[Galloism]

I live in Arkansas and I have two neighbors, one clearly supporting Trump and one clearly supporting Hillary, who for the past couple months have been trying to outdo each other with signage.

I counted 17 signs in the Hillary yard and 19 in the Trump yard day before yesterday.

I went by today, and all the Trump signs were gone.

Hm, stolen? That happens a lot where I live, happened to me and my neighbors. Anyways, I've never seen a single Hillary poster nor a Trump poster taken down.

Or maybe they finally had enough. I dunno.

[Christian Conservatism]

LA times poll is absolutely credible. The mainstream media might not feel that way, but it's true.

[Navaronia]

I live in Rhode Island and surprisingly, all I see is Trump signs and I haven't seen a single Hillary poster yet at all. Closest I've seen is a bumper sticker and that's it, literally

I live in Arkansas and I have two neighbors, one clearly supporting Trump and one clearly supporting Hillary, who for the past couple months have been trying to outdo each other with signage.

I counted 17 signs in the Hillary yard and 19 in the Trump yard day before yesterday.

I went by today, and all the Trump signs were gone.

I have only seen four lawn signs voting for Trump, the rest is either for Hillary. I have only seen one Johnson lawn sign and I planted that on my friend's lawn as a joke, either way we live in a white-majority rich county which may outcome the results.

[Galloism]

LA times poll is absolutely credible. The mainstream media might not feel that way, but it's true.

We're just saying it's been six points above the average for Trump consistently for months.

It's also worth noting they survey the same 3,000 people over and over. If those 3,000 represent a statistical outlier (which seems likely, given they're +6 Trump consistently), then it will continue to be a statistical outlier the entire election.

[The Adonalsium]

Hm, stolen? That happens a lot where I live, happened to me and my neighbors. Anyways, I've never seen a single Hillary poster nor a Trump poster taken down.

Or maybe they finally had enough. I dunno.

I dunno, that last debate could have changed some people minds. Really, trumps refusal to answer anything was probably getting to some reasonable people.

Really, i find my Canadian friends wondering why no one is calling out trump for lying and not answering anything, and my American Friends screaming Trump won!
its so weird.

[The Portland Territory]

I live in Arkansas and I have two neighbors, one clearly supporting Trump and one clearly supporting Hillary, who for the past couple months have been trying to outdo each other with signage.

I counted 17 signs in the Hillary yard and 19 in the Trump yard day before yesterday.

I went by today, and all the Trump signs were gone.

I have only seen four lawn signs voting for Trump, the rest is either for Hillary. I have only seen one Johnson lawn sign and I planted that on my friend's lawn as a joke, either way we live in a white-majority rich county which may outcome the results.

I've also seen a Johnson poster as well, only one though. That's more Clinton

[Eol Sha]

LA times poll is absolutely credible. The mainstream media might not feel that way, but it's true.

It's....dangerous to rely on only one poll/polling outfit to tell you the state of the election. It's important to look at multiple polls from multiple organizations if you want a more complete picture of the election.

[Navaronia]

I have only seen four lawn signs voting for Trump, the rest is either for Hillary. I have only seen one Johnson lawn sign and I planted that on my friend's lawn as a joke, either way we live in a white-majority rich county which may outcome the results.

I've also seen a Johnson poster as well, only one though. That's more Clinton

Johnson might as well never entered the race. I wish, for once, that maybe this election can change and endorse the third-party system. But knowing the good ol' US of A that's just a smidge more unlikely than the Government taking away firearms.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

LA times poll is absolutely credible. The mainstream media might not feel that way, but it's true.

We're just saying it's been six points above the average for Trump consistently for months.

It's also worth noting they survey the same 3,000 people over and over. If those 3,000 represent a statistical outlier (which seems likely, given they're +6 Trump consistently), then it will continue to be a statistical outlier the entire election.

I think the LA Times poll is an outlier because of the very people it represents.

It shows the voters who decided early on who they were going to vote for, meaning people like you and I, and not undecided voters which is what the polls of other agencies focus on.

This just shows what we already know, that among locked in voters, Trump has kind of hit a ceiling, when combining it with the likely voter polling. Doesn't surprise me in the least that Trump has hit a popular ceiling among his base, but his problem is gaining the likely and undecided voters to his side, which he's not doing so great at.

[Arlenton]

I created the election prediction thing we were talking about earlier in Forum 7, if y'all wanna show off your crystal ball skills.

LA times poll is absolutely credible. The mainstream media might not feel that way, but it's true.

Oh my gosh NO! NO! NO!

When has the mainstream media been so wrong on polls? They haven't since the 40s. Polling averages nearly always predict the correct results. Why is the mainstream (AKA credible) media suddenly wrong this year when they are right every other recent election?

[Ebliania]

First

So how is your preferred candidate doing in your state?

In Florida, self proclaimed swingiest swing state, Hillary has the edge. The latest Marist poll had her up by 3 points.

Pennsylvania I favor the Dem candidates, but long explanations get tiring for me after a while

So maybe tomorrow

[Galloism]

I created the election prediction thing we were talking about earlier in Forum 7, if y'all wanna show off your crystal ball skills.

LA times poll is absolutely credible. The mainstream media might not feel that way, but it's true.

Oh my gosh NO! NO! NO!

When has the mainstream media been so wrong on polls? They haven't since the 40s. Polling averages nearly always predict the correct results. Why is the mainstream (AKA credible) media suddenly wrong this year when they are right every other recent election?

Donald Trump is running.

QED.

[The Portland Territory]

I've also seen a Johnson poster as well, only one though. That's more Clinton

Johnson might as well never entered the race. I wish, for once, that maybe this election can change and endorse the third-party system. But knowing the good ol' US of A that's just a smidge more unlikely than the Government taking away firearms.

Johnson's an idiot and he should drop out, because I think that he would slightly prefer Trump over Clinton and he's the largest thing in Trump's way

[Camicon]

Johnson might as well never entered the race. I wish, for once, that maybe this election can change and endorse the third-party system. But knowing the good ol' US of A that's just a smidge more unlikely than the Government taking away firearms.

Johnson's an idiot and he should drop out, because I think that he would slightly prefer Trump over Clinton and he's the largest thing in Trump's way

Johnson may be an idiot, but he's not that stupid.

[Ebliania]

Johnson might as well never entered the race. I wish, for once, that maybe this election can change and endorse the third-party system. But knowing the good ol' US of A that's just a smidge more unlikely than the Government taking away firearms.

Johnson's an idiot and he should drop out, because I think that he would slightly prefer Trump over Clinton and he's the largest thing in Trump's way

Johnson is mostly Clinton protest votes, iirc.

[Major-Tom]

Johnson might as well never entered the race. I wish, for once, that maybe this election can change and endorse the third-party system. But knowing the good ol' US of A that's just a smidge more unlikely than the Government taking away firearms.

Johnson's an idiot and he should drop out, because I think that he would slightly prefer Trump over Clinton and he's the largest thing in Trump's way

He's an idiot, but I trust that pot addled buffoon over a sociopath or a delusional narcissist. He'd have some reasonable, and some unreasonable legislation, and a GOP congress could stop some of his more...goofy ideas, as could the down to earth Weld as VP.

Vote Johnson folks, the pot smoking, Aleppo forgetting, cheeky former NM governor manages to be more qualified than the two major candidates. Thats a sad reflection of our country.

[Corrian]

First

So how is your preferred candidate doing in your state?

Hmm, I might as well go with this.

Washington
Hillary Clinton
Clinton has a 98% chance to win my state according to 538, and to be honest, if it was Sanders the nominee, I have a feeling it'd probably be all the way to 99.9% chance like in some states. She has about a 15% lead currently, despite currently in my area, there being a shit ton of (rather large) Trump signs. Conveniently they're the two shittiest towns, too...I hate to make the correlation, but let's just say, it doesn't surprise me. I don't know what's with Trump supporters and giant as shit signs, but eh. My town doesn't seem to have any besides like, one along the highway. There is like that, then two shitty towns, then a more city like place (17,000 people) and a lot less signs. The tiny town up from me seemed to be more of a Bernie town because there were Bernie bumper stickers everywhere. I seem to live in the weird countryside area that has a mix. It's not deep red country. The deep red in Washington is eastern Washington.

Patty Murphy for Senate
She also seems to be highly popular up here, with a 95% chance to win her seat. She also has about a 15% lead, but has gone up to even 21%, though the most recent had her at only 8%. But if last time is anything to go off of, she won in a landslide, even in more red areas. So I would guess that she will win. Republicans aren't really known for doing well here.

Jay Inslee for Governor
Jay Inslee isn't really exciting, and I don't consider him that noteworthy or interesting, but he's our current governor and is likely to win again. I don't know so much on the polls, but last I saw, he had a rather solid lead to be reelected as governor of Washington. I'll most likely vote for him, but I won't be that excited about it, either.

In other races, people I like are likely to win as well, but those aren't as important.

Aka my state is safely blue so it's not really an exciting state.

[Arlenton]

I created the election prediction thing we were talking about earlier in Forum 7, if y'all wanna show off your crystal ball skills.




Oh my gosh NO! NO! NO!

When has the mainstream media been so wrong on polls? They haven't since the 40s. Polling averages nearly always predict the correct results. Why is the mainstream (AKA credible) media suddenly wrong this year when they are right every other recent election?

Donald Trump is running.

QED.

Oh yeah, I forgot. He is so "high energy" that the traditional physical laws of politics don't apply to him.

[Socialist Nordia]

Johnson's an idiot and he should drop out, because I think that he would slightly prefer Trump over Clinton and he's the largest thing in Trump's way

He's an idiot, but I trust that pot addled buffoon over a sociopath or a delusional narcissist. He'd have some reasonable, and some unreasonable legislation, and a GOP congress could stop some of his more...goofy ideas, as could the down to earth Weld as VP.

Vote Johnson folks, the pot smoking, Aleppo forgetting, cheeky former NM governor manages to be more qualified than the two major candidates. Thats a sad reflection of our country.

Wanna back that up with something other than your strong feelings?

[The Adonalsium]

I've also seen a Johnson poster as well, only one though. That's more Clinton

Johnson might as well never entered the race. I wish, for once, that maybe this election can change and endorse the third-party system. But knowing the good ol' US of A that's just a smidge more unlikely than the Government taking away firearms.

I was happy That Johnson was doing so well, he seems like a great guy. Then I heard about his environmental views? Do we know if he's changed his mind about that?

[Eol Sha]

I created the election prediction thing we were talking about earlier in Forum 7, if y'all wanna show off your crystal ball skills.

LA times poll is absolutely credible. The mainstream media might not feel that way, but it's true.

Oh my gosh NO! NO! NO!

When has the mainstream media been so wrong on polls? They haven't since the 40s. Polling averages nearly always predict the correct results. Why is the mainstream (AKA credible) media suddenly wrong this year when they are right every other recent election?

According to this, since the 1948 election, media polling has been off by more than 5% only once. That was in 1992 when they had Bill Clinton up 6% higher just before the election in November than the actual election result.

They were 2% below Barack Obama's actual result in 2012 and George W. Bush's actual result in 2004 and spot on in 2008 and 2000.