US General Election Thread IV: The Beginning of the End

[Ashmoria]

It's probably been posted on this thread before, but gosh had I forgotten how much I liked Keith Olbermann.

Can we please put him in charge of the debates? And all election coverage?

I forgot why he even disappeared.

he turns out to be a jerk in real life and his employers get sick of him.

I hope this GQ thing gets him back on tv (maybe hes still on espn, I wouldn't know)

[Ashmoria]

Have I got this right: Trump now says that Obama was born in the US, and that Hillary started the whole birther thing?

no

his CAMPAIGN says that he now says that Obama was born in the us and that Hillary started the whole birther thing

and, of course, that he is some kind of hero for forcing Obama to prove that he really is a citizen

I don't believe it until I hear it from his own mouth

and the rest is bullshit, which you already know.

[Ifreann]

Why, that is anti-beard bigotry.

I think you should be more concerned that all the smileys are yellow.

I grew up on The Simpsons, yellow-skinned people don't bother me.

---

It's only a matter of time before you attend a Libertarian Party meeting while having forgotten that you were wearing your Bernie t-shirt, followed by swift excommunication.

I'm not that deeply involved with the LP. I did go to a rally and pick up a yard sign from someone who was giving them away.

Monitor at a Libertarian Party rally
"God it's hot today"
Monitor starts pulling off her Feel The Johnson sweatshirt
Time slows, sax music swells
Heads turn Monitors' way, someone mutters "Yeah...hot"
Monitor shakes her hair out like she was selling shampoo
Monitor notices everyone watching her
"What's up?"
She looks down
Bernie Sanders t-shirt
"Shit"

[USS Monitor]

I think you should be more concerned that all the smileys are yellow.

I grew up on The Simpsons, yellow-skinned people don't bother me.

---

I'm not that deeply involved with the LP. I did go to a rally and pick up a yard sign from someone who was giving them away.

Monitor at a Libertarian Party rally
"God it's hot today"
Monitor starts pulling off her Feel The Johnson sweatshirt
Time slows, sax music swells
Heads turn Monitors' way, someone mutters "Yeah...hot"
Monitor shakes her hair out like she was selling shampoo
Monitor notices everyone watching her
"What's up?"
She looks down
Bernie Sanders t-shirt
"Shit"

It was really fucking hot that day, but that's about the only part that happened the way you are imagining.

[Ifreann]

I grew up on The Simpsons, yellow-skinned people don't bother me.

---

Monitor at a Libertarian Party rally
"God it's hot today"
Monitor starts pulling off her Feel The Johnson sweatshirt
Time slows, sax music swells
Heads turn Monitors' way, someone mutters "Yeah...hot"
Monitor shakes her hair out like she was selling shampoo
Monitor notices everyone watching her
"What's up?"
She looks down
Bernie Sanders t-shirt
"Shit"

It was really fucking hot that day, but that's about the only part that happened the way you are imagining.

If I've learned anything from this election, it's that what really happened doesn't matter, only what I choose to believe happened.

[USS Monitor]

It was really fucking hot that day, but that's about the only part that happened the way you are imagining.

If I've learned anything from this election, it's that what really happened doesn't matter, only what I choose to believe happened.

Hey, if that's what gets you off...

[Hurdergaryp]

If I've learned anything from this election, it's that what really happened doesn't matter, only what I choose to believe happened.

Hey, if that's what gets you off...

Let's just hope that Ifreann doesn't believe that someone will clean up after him.

[Thermodolia]

It's only a matter of time before you attend a Libertarian Party meeting while having forgotten that you were wearing your Bernie t-shirt, followed by swift excommunication.

I'm not that deeply involved with the LP. I did go to a rally and pick up a yard sign from someone who was giving them away.

Well you're more involved than I am with the Democratic Party.

[Hurdergaryp]

Have I got this right: Trump now says that Obama was born in the US, and that Hillary started the whole birther thing?

no

his CAMPAIGN says that he now says that Obama was born in the us and that Hillary started the whole birther thing

and, of course, that he is some kind of hero for forcing Obama to prove that he really is a citizen

I don't believe it until I hear it from his own mouth

and the rest is bullshit, which you already know.

So it is just business as usual.

[Slarvainian]

I think it's going to become quite clear soon that Trump has the election. I would wait till after the first debate but I think he might have it.

[Ashmoria]

no

his CAMPAIGN says that he now says that Obama was born in the us and that Hillary started the whole birther thing

and, of course, that he is some kind of hero for forcing Obama to prove that he really is a citizen

I don't believe it until I hear it from his own mouth

and the rest is bullshit, which you already know.

So it is just business as usual.

he is going to make a statement sometime today using his newly opened luxury hotel in DC (he'll have to pay rent) as a backdrop. that way its an ad for his new hotel AND a chance to dis Hillary Clinton for being the original birther (bullshit) at the same time!

it will be huge.

[Washington Resistance Army]

I think it's going to become quite clear soon that Trump has the election. I would wait till after the first debate but I think he might have it.

Imo unless he really screws up hard in the debates he's got it in the bag.

[Hurdergaryp]

I think it's going to become quite clear soon that Trump has the election. I would wait till after the first debate but I think he might have it.

That is an interesting statement, to say the least. Personal beliefs do not cold hard facts make, but let's see how things unfold.

[Khadgar]

So does anyone else think that should Trump win he'll abandon DC and run the nation out of Trump tower? I'm sure he'll charge the government a reasonable rent for office space. Probably a million a day.

[Hurdergaryp]

So does anyone else think that should Trump win he'll abandon DC and run the nation out of Trump tower? I'm sure he'll charge the government a reasonable rent for office space. Probably a million a day.

If only it was legal to build skyscrapers in Washington DC... that way Trump could erect a lasting monument to his ego, even if he doesn't win at all fronts.

[Ashmoria]

So does anyone else think that should Trump win he'll abandon DC and run the nation out of Trump tower? I'm sure he'll charge the government a reasonable rent for office space. Probably a million a day.

noooooo

he will live in his new DC hotel down the street from the whitehouse. the presidential suite goes for a mere $29K/day.

he cant live in that dump they call the whitehouse. its not big enough.

[Khadgar]

So does anyone else think that should Trump win he'll abandon DC and run the nation out of Trump tower? I'm sure he'll charge the government a reasonable rent for office space. Probably a million a day.

noooooo

he will live in his new DC hotel down the street from the whitehouse. the presidential suite goes for a mere $29K/day.

he cant live in that dump they call the whitehouse. its not big enough.

I'd have to rent out an entire floor of the building I'm sure.

[Ifreann]

So does anyone else think that should Trump win he'll abandon DC and run the nation out of Trump tower? I'm sure he'll charge the government a reasonable rent for office space. Probably a million a day.

OR bring Trump Towers to Washington, and plant it on top of the White House.

[Alvecia]

So does anyone else think that should Trump win he'll abandon DC and run the nation out of Trump tower? I'm sure he'll charge the government a reasonable rent for office space. Probably a million a day.

OR bring Trump Towers to Washington, and plant it on top of the White House.

The White Trump House

[AiliailiA]

Surely the paid maternity leave he is suggesting hasn't given him any major boost?

The Ivanka plan? Probably not.

Quoting myself here. Since apparently only Saiwania and myself want to talk about the candidates' policies ...

4.3 million births annually in the US.

Using the New Jersey rate (2/3 of wage up to $524 pw), the maximum cost of the program would be $13.5 billion.
Using the California rate (55% of wage up to $1067 pw), the maximum cost of the program would be $27.5 billion.

Trump hasn't said what the rate will be. He said it would be managed within the existing system, so perhaps he means it would be a payment at the rate of unemployment insurance, average national rate (2nd quarter 2016) of $235. In which case the maximum cost of the program would be $6.1 billion.

And this is going to be paid for by reducing unemployment insurance fraud. Apparently.

ALL unemployment insurance payouts in 2015 amounted to $32 billion.

In 2013, a report by the FRED found that $3.3 billion was being claimed fradulently from unemployment insurance. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/28/fraudulent-unemployment-benefits_n_3175092.html

HuffPo's link to the FRED is broken, but here's a similar document from the same source. Three percent of overpayments (by dollar amount) are by fraud, according to the FRED.

Applying the same standard to current payments, Donny and Ivanka have 3% of $32 billion, or about $1 billion, to "fund" their maternal leave program. It seems completely inadequate, even for a bare-bones payment. Unless they're proposing to "pay" for 6 weeks off work at a puny forty dollars a week. Thanks, that might just pay for nappies, no wait I'm unemployed now (couldn't turn up to work, I was giving birth, I got sacked) so I get unemployment insurance. I'll take the extra $40 I guess.

But wait. We shouldn't assume that everyone eligible for paid maternal leave will actually take it ... particularly not if the rate offered is a dollar an hour (I won't stop scoffing at that for a while, bear with me) ... so back to an interesting finding of that FRED paper.

Unclaimed payments spiked to over $100 billion in 2009: these were people who were unaware of, or unwilling to claim, the extended benefits (and in the whole year, $72 billion was claimed and paid out ... all figures in 2005-adjusted dollars). Looking at the same graph (Figure 2) though, we see unclaimed benefits are more usually around $25 to $30 billion (all in 2005-adjusted dollars). Setting aside the low rate of fraud (baby fraud: new mothers continuing to work for pay while also claiming the maternity benefit) it seems reasonable that only about half as much maternity payment will be made, as new mothers are actually eligible for.

This cuts the cost of the Ivanka plan to $3 billion (cheap plan), $7 billion (NJ plan) or $13 billion (CA plan).

Still at best, mostly unfunded.

The child-care funding plan, announced simultaneously, is actually quite different. It's a tax cut for parents who pay income tax, and I'm sure they'll appreciate that. It does nothing for low income parents (besides a puny $1,500 annual rebate) and unlike the maternity leave program it doesn't even pretend to be self funding. It's forgone revenue for the federal government, and from a budget perspective it's identical to spending. All that it has in common with the maternal leave policy is that it's unfunded.

It's like Donald told Ivanka "here's twenty billion of taxpayer money, go make a nice childcare policy." And it's not terrible, frankly I think Ivanka would be a better candidate than her dad.

The maternity leave idea is better than any prominent Republican has ever come out for before now, the child-care tax break isn't so good. But let's just be clear that neither are revenue neutral. It's a spending and tax cut policy with nothing proposed to fund it.

Fighting Trump on personality and qualifications for office isn't going so well. Trump's policies have been laughably vague (besides "build a wall") so it's been hard to fight him on policy. But if this is a policy, on maternal leave and child-care funding, then let's address it.

And let's shamelessly re-open the fiscal wound. Republicans went to all lengths to cut the budge deficit, when it served them to retard economic recovery and defend the idiotic Bush tax cuts. How can they support this economic baboon with his even more rich-friendly tax cuts, his reckless spending promises, and his bad maths on debt and deficit? It's a crazy triangle, and any Republican running for Congress should be asked the three questions.

[Corrian]

I need to stop looking at election things because it's getting me worried that people may actually be stupid enough to elect Trump. I still doubt it, but even it being close would be depressing. Like Jesus, after 2 terms of our first black president who won pretty solidly twice, and suddenly we have a close race and a possible Trump? Great job America on trying to instantly go completely backwards.

[The Princes of the Universe]

I need to stop looking at election things because it's getting me worried that people may actually be stupid enough to elect Trump. I still doubt it, but even it being close would be depressing. Like Jesus, after 2 terms of our first black president who won pretty solidly twice, and suddenly we have a close race and a possible Trump? Great job America on trying to instantly go completely backwards.

I blame the ongoing Dixiefication of the place.

[Hurdergaryp]

I need to stop looking at election things because it's getting me worried that people may actually be stupid enough to elect Trump. I still doubt it, but even it being close would be depressing. Like Jesus, after 2 terms of our first black president who won pretty solidly twice, and suddenly we have a close race and a possible Trump? Great job America on trying to instantly go completely backwards.

Wouldn't be the first time. Remember George W. Bush?

[Khadgar]

The Ivanka plan? Probably not.

Quoting myself here. Since apparently only Saiwania and myself want to talk about the candidates' policies ...

4.3 million births annually in the US.

Using the New Jersey rate (2/3 of wage up to $524 pw), the maximum cost of the program would be $13.5 billion.
Using the California rate (55% of wage up to $1067 pw), the maximum cost of the program would be $27.5 billion.

Trump hasn't said what the rate will be. He said it would be managed within the existing system, so perhaps he means it would be a payment at the rate of unemployment insurance, average national rate (2nd quarter 2016) of $235. In which case the maximum cost of the program would be $6.1 billion.

And this is going to be paid for by reducing unemployment insurance fraud. Apparently.

ALL unemployment insurance payouts in 2015 amounted to $32 billion.

In 2013, a report by the FRED found that $3.3 billion was being claimed fradulently from unemployment insurance. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/28/fraudulent-unemployment-benefits_n_3175092.html

HuffPo's link to the FRED is broken, but here's a similar document from the same source. Three percent of overpayments (by dollar amount) are by fraud, according to the FRED.

Applying the same standard to current payments, Donny and Ivanka have 3% of $32 billion, or about $1 billion, to "fund" their maternal leave program. It seems completely inadequate, even for a bare-bones payment. Unless they're proposing to "pay" for 6 weeks off work at a puny forty dollars a week. Thanks, that might just pay for nappies, no wait I'm unemployed now (couldn't turn up to work, I was giving birth, I got sacked) so I get unemployment insurance. I'll take the extra $40 I guess.

But wait. We shouldn't assume that everyone eligible for paid maternal leave will actually take it ... particularly not if the rate offered is a dollar an hour (I won't stop scoffing at that for a while, bear with me) ... so back to an interesting finding of that FRED paper.

Unclaimed payments spiked to over $100 billion in 2009: these were people who were unaware of, or unwilling to claim, the extended benefits (and in the whole year, $72 billion was actually claimed ... all figures in 2005-adjusted dollars). Looking at the same graph (Figure 2) though, we see unclaimed benefits are more usually around $25 to $30 billion (all in 2005-adjusted dollars). Setting aside the low rate of fraud (baby fraud: new mothers continuing to work for pay while also claiming the maternity benefit) it seems reasonable that only about half as much maternity payment will be made, as new mothers are actually eligible for.

This cuts the cost of the Ivanka plan to $3 billion (cheap plan), $7 billion (NJ plan) or $13 billion (CA plan).

Still at best, mostly unfunded.

The child-care funding plan, announced simultaneously, is actually quite different. It's a tax cut for parents who pay income tax, and I'm sure they'll appreciate that. It does nothing for low income parents (besides a puny $1,500 annual rebate) and unlike the maternity leave program it doesn't even pretend to be self funding. It's forgone revenue for the federal government, and from a budget perspective its identical to spending. All that it has in common with the maternal leave policy is that it's unfunded.

It's like Donald told Ivanka "here's twenty billion of taxpayer money, go make a nice childcare policy." And it's not terrible, frankly I think Ivanka would be a better candidate than her dad.

The maternity leave idea is better than any prominent Republican has ever come out for before now, the child-care tax break isn't so good. But let's just be clear that neither are revenue neutral. It's a spending and tax cut policy with nothing proposed to fund it.

Fighting Trump on personality and qualifications for office isn't going so well. Trump's policies have been laughably vague (besides "build a wall") so it's been hard to fight him on policy. But if this is a policy, on maternal leave and child-care funding, then let's address it.

And let's shamelessly re-open the fiscal wound. Republicans went to all lengths to cut the budge deficit, when it served them to retard economic recovery and defend the idiotic Bush tax cuts. How can they support this economic baboon with his even more rich-friendly tax cuts, his reckless spending promises, and his bad maths on debt and deficit? It's a crazy triangle, and any Republican running for Congress should be asked the three questions.

Given Donald's absurd tax proposals it's almost as if the GOP learned nothing from the Bush years. Apparently neither did many voters.

[Cymrea]

I need to stop looking at election things because it's getting me worried that people may actually be stupid enough to elect Trump. I still doubt it, but even it being close would be depressing. Like Jesus, after 2 terms of our first black president who won pretty solidly twice, and suddenly we have a close race and a possible Trump? Great job America on trying to instantly go completely backwards.

It seems to me that after having been told to go fuck itself so often, America decided late one night, all alone, to give it a try out of morbid curiosity...and found that it liked it. Now the burgeoning fetish for fucking itself has America preoccupied.