US General Election Thread IV: The Beginning of the End

[AiliailiA]

Quoting myself here. Since apparently only Saiwania and myself want to talk about the candidates' policies ...

4.3 million births annually in the US.

Using the New Jersey rate (2/3 of wage up to $524 pw), the maximum cost of the program would be $13.5 billion.
Using the California rate (55% of wage up to $1067 pw), the maximum cost of the program would be $27.5 billion.

Trump hasn't said what the rate will be. He said it would be managed within the existing system, so perhaps he means it would be a payment at the rate of unemployment insurance, average national rate (2nd quarter 2016) of $235. In which case the maximum cost of the program would be $6.1 billion.

And this is going to be paid for by reducing unemployment insurance fraud. Apparently.

ALL unemployment insurance payouts in 2015 amounted to $32 billion.

In 2013, a report by the FRED found that $3.3 billion was being claimed fradulently from unemployment insurance. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/28/fraudulent-unemployment-benefits_n_3175092.html

HuffPo's link to the FRED is broken, but here's a similar document from the same source. Three percent of overpayments (by dollar amount) are by fraud, according to the FRED.

Applying the same standard to current payments, Donny and Ivanka have 3% of $32 billion, or about $1 billion, to "fund" their maternal leave program. It seems completely inadequate, even for a bare-bones payment. Unless they're proposing to "pay" for 6 weeks off work at a puny forty dollars a week. Thanks, that might just pay for nappies, no wait I'm unemployed now (couldn't turn up to work, I was giving birth, I got sacked) so I get unemployment insurance. I'll take the extra $40 I guess.

But wait. We shouldn't assume that everyone eligible for paid maternal leave will actually take it ... particularly not if the rate offered is a dollar an hour (I won't stop scoffing at that for a while, bear with me) ... so back to an interesting finding of that FRED paper.

Unclaimed payments spiked to over $100 billion in 2009: these were people who were unaware of, or unwilling to claim, the extended benefits (and in the whole year, $72 billion was actually claimed ... all figures in 2005-adjusted dollars). Looking at the same graph (Figure 2) though, we see unclaimed benefits are more usually around $25 to $30 billion (all in 2005-adjusted dollars). Setting aside the low rate of fraud (baby fraud: new mothers continuing to work for pay while also claiming the maternity benefit) it seems reasonable that only about half as much maternity payment will be made, as new mothers are actually eligible for.

This cuts the cost of the Ivanka plan to $3 billion (cheap plan), $7 billion (NJ plan) or $13 billion (CA plan).

Still at best, mostly unfunded.

The child-care funding plan, announced simultaneously, is actually quite different. It's a tax cut for parents who pay income tax, and I'm sure they'll appreciate that. It does nothing for low income parents (besides a puny $1,500 annual rebate) and unlike the maternity leave program it doesn't even pretend to be self funding. It's forgone revenue for the federal government, and from a budget perspective its identical to spending. All that it has in common with the maternal leave policy is that it's unfunded.

It's like Donald told Ivanka "here's twenty billion of taxpayer money, go make a nice childcare policy." And it's not terrible, frankly I think Ivanka would be a better candidate than her dad.

The maternity leave idea is better than any prominent Republican has ever come out for before now, the child-care tax break isn't so good. But let's just be clear that neither are revenue neutral. It's a spending and tax cut policy with nothing proposed to fund it.

Fighting Trump on personality and qualifications for office isn't going so well. Trump's policies have been laughably vague (besides "build a wall") so it's been hard to fight him on policy. But if this is a policy, on maternal leave and child-care funding, then let's address it.

And let's shamelessly re-open the fiscal wound. Republicans went to all lengths to cut the budge deficit, when it served them to retard economic recovery and defend the idiotic Bush tax cuts. How can they support this economic baboon with his even more rich-friendly tax cuts, his reckless spending promises, and his bad maths on debt and deficit? It's a crazy triangle, and any Republican running for Congress should be asked the three questions.

Given Donald's absurd tax proposals it's almost as if the GOP learned nothing from the Bush years. Apparently neither did many voters.

The GOP should know better by now.

Any Republican running for Congress should be asked the three questions:

Do you support Trump's tax cuts?
Do you support Trump's spending proposals <mention some>?
Do you support a lower budget deficit?

[Khadgar]

Given Donald's absurd tax proposals it's almost as if the GOP learned nothing from the Bush years. Apparently neither did many voters.

The GOP should know better by now.

Any Republican running for Congress should be asked the three questions:

Do you support Trump's tax cuts?
Do you support Trump's spending proposals <mention some>?
Do you support a lower budget deficit?

Problem being I'm sure the media would just swallow an answer of Yes to all three without making the incredibly obvious objection of math not working that way.

[Ifreann]

The GOP should know better by now.

Any Republican running for Congress should be asked the three questions:

Do you support Trump's tax cuts?
Do you support Trump's spending proposals <mention some>?
Do you support a lower budget deficit?

Problem being I'm sure the media would just swallow an answer of Yes to all three without making the incredibly obvious objection of math not working that way.

Cut taxes, increase spending, lose an election, blame the state of the economy on the Democrats.

[AiliailiA]

The GOP should know better by now.

Any Republican running for Congress should be asked the three questions:

Do you support Trump's tax cuts?
Do you support Trump's spending proposals <mention some>?
Do you support a lower budget deficit?

Problem being I'm sure the media would just swallow an answer of Yes to all three without making the incredibly obvious objection of math not working that way.

Khadgar. You were always about policy, now even you are lost in this storm of personality and perceptions. I tried to post about policy, then I tried to post about political involvement (ask the candidates the three questions).

Fuck the media, by all means. But what's the alternative? It's us, isn't it? It's free publishing and let the reader beware. Well I think you and I should "be the change we wish to see in the world" and be journalists, be serious commentators, influence whatever readers we have, as responsibly as we can. We are the alternative to media, so with the voice we have let's say something more than "it's the media's fault!"

[AiliailiA]

Problem being I'm sure the media would just swallow an answer of Yes to all three without making the incredibly obvious objection of math not working that way.

Cut taxes, increase spending, lose an election, blame the state of the economy on the Democrats.

The President gets way too much credit and way too much blame for the state of the economy.

Insofar as any government has control of the economy, it's by passing bills which regulate the economy: raise a tax or spend on some new program, or restrict or encourage some form of trade. Even the strong powers of the US President to 'administer' the spending are still secondary to that. Well there are animal spirits as well, and a bully pulpit effect which a popular President can use, but ultimately Congress holds the purse-strings and Congress has more influence over the economy than the President does.

But it's easier to blame one person, than two hundred odd in the House or fifty in the Senate, so the President gets praised or blamed for what happened to the economy in their term.

Damn good reason not to have a President, in my opinion.

[Trumpostan]

The GOP should know better by now.

Any Republican running for Congress should be asked the three questions:

Do you support Trump's tax cuts?
Do you support Trump's spending proposals <mention some>?
Do you support a lower budget deficit?

Problem being I'm sure the media would just swallow an answer of Yes to all three without making the incredibly obvious objection of math not working that way.

The magic revenue increasing tax cuts. Yes GOP logic really works that way. Think it is in their bible: 3 Reagan verse 12-14: thy tax cuts shall increase revenue and fixt'h thy deficit. But shall it fail, blame them that hath opposeth thine cuts.

[Philjia]

Problem being I'm sure the media would just swallow an answer of Yes to all three without making the incredibly obvious objection of math not working that way.

The magic revenue increasing tax cuts. Yes GOP logic really works that way. Think it is in their bible: 3 Reagan verse 12-14: thy tax cuts shall increase revenue and fixt'h thy deficit. But shall it fail, blame them that hath opposeth thine cuts.

If they funded the IRS more, they actually could cut taxes and increase revenue, because the IRS is extremely underfunded. But that will never happen because everyone hates the IRS.

[Nordengrund]

I consider myself a centrist, but Idk the difference between the center left and the center right.

I know the difference between the left wing and the right wing, but not those leaning closer to the center. Are the center left and center right really that different from each other? I'd imagine they would be closer to each other than whatever side they lean towards.

[Eol Sha]

I consider myself a centrist, but Idk the difference between the center left and the center right.

I know the difference between the left wing and the right wing, but not those leaning closer to the center. Are the center left and center right really that different from each other? I'd imagine they would be closer to each other than whatever side they lean towards.

I think some key differences are that center-leftists, like leftists, are more ok with government spending. Not to the same extent, of course. Also center-leftists actually do strive for balanced budgets, but not to the detriment of the welfare system or other major functions of government. You can see that with both the Obama (clearly center-left) and Clinton (arguably centrist) Administrations. They've both pushed for balanced budgets, but they also recognize the inherent importance of the state taking care of and protecting the most vulnerable citizens and are willing to spend money, even if the deficit goes up a little, and enact programs to do just that.

However, if there's any real philosophical difference between the two, it is that center-leftists are more trusting of the government and the state, with the possible exception of the security apparatus, than center-rightists, who are more skeptical of things like welfare and public schooling. Not to the same degree as those further to the right, but that skepticism is key to understanding the differences between the two.

[Nordengrund]

I consider myself a centrist, but Idk the difference between the center left and the center right.

I know the difference between the left wing and the right wing, but not those leaning closer to the center. Are the center left and center right really that different from each other? I'd imagine they would be closer to each other than whatever side they lean towards.

I think some key differences are that center-leftists, like leftists, are more ok with government spending. Not to the same extent, of course. Also center-leftists actually do strive for balanced budgets, but not to the detriment of the welfare system or other major functions of government. You can see that with both the Obama (clearly center-left) and Clinton (arguably centrist) Administrations. They've both pushed for balanced budgets, but they also recognize the inherent importance of the state taking care of and protecting the most vulnerable citizens and are willing to spend money, even if the deficit goes up a little, and enact programs to do just that.

However, if there's any real philosophical difference between the two, it is that center-leftists are more trusting of the government and the state, with the possible exception of the security apparatus, than center-rightists, who are more skeptical of things like welfare and public schooling. Not to the same degree as those further to the right, but that skepticism is key to understanding the differences between the two.

I'm trying to figure out which one I am.

I do support government welfare as long as the recipients still contribute to society in some way. Basically, I believe that the government should help the unemployed as long as the unemployed and those struggling financially do their part. Of course, I think there should be exceptions for those with physical or mental handicaps.

I think homeschooling is the ideal form of education, but not all parents are responsible or have the time or resources to homeschool their children, so I believe in improving the quality of public schools since education is a right.

I'm indifferent about the progressive and flat taxes.

Would I lean left or right?

[Frank Zipper]

So the BBC are saying that Trump himself has just blamed Hillary for the birther thing in a speech.

[Eol Sha]

I think some key differences are that center-leftists, like leftists, are more ok with government spending. Not to the same extent, of course. Also center-leftists actually do strive for balanced budgets, but not to the detriment of the welfare system or other major functions of government. You can see that with both the Obama (clearly center-left) and Clinton (arguably centrist) Administrations. They've both pushed for balanced budgets, but they also recognize the inherent importance of the state taking care of and protecting the most vulnerable citizens and are willing to spend money, even if the deficit goes up a little, and enact programs to do just that.

However, if there's any real philosophical difference between the two, it is that center-leftists are more trusting of the government and the state, with the possible exception of the security apparatus, than center-rightists, who are more skeptical of things like welfare and public schooling. Not to the same degree as those further to the right, but that skepticism is key to understanding the differences between the two.

I'm trying to figure out which one I am.

I do support government welfare as long as the recipients still contribute to society in some way. Basically, I believe that the government should help the unemployed as long as the unemployed and those struggling financially do their part. Of course, I think there should be exceptions for those with physical or mental handicaps.

I think homeschooling is the ideal form of education, but not all parents are responsible or have the time or resources to homeschool their children, so I believe in improving the quality of public schools since education is a right.

I'm indifferent about the progressive and flat taxes.

Would I lean left or right?

At least on that metric you'd probably fit in well with the Democrats and center-leftists in general. From your previous posts, though, I get the impression that you are...more socially conservative than the modern Democrat. Correct?

[Galloism]

So the BBC are saying that Trump himself has just blamed Hillary for the birther thing in a speech.

He did. Trumpiness in action.

[European Guilds]

So the BBC are saying that Trump himself has just blamed Hillary for the birther thing in a speech.

Hey, everything Trump did wrong is the fault of Hillary! It's so obvious!

[Hurdergaryp]

So the BBC are saying that Trump himself has just blamed Hillary for the birther thing in a speech.

He did. Trumpiness in action.

Unhindered by reality, just like the people who adore him.

[Eol Sha]

I think some key differences are that center-leftists, like leftists, are more ok with government spending. Not to the same extent, of course. Also center-leftists actually do strive for balanced budgets, but not to the detriment of the welfare system or other major functions of government. You can see that with both the Obama (clearly center-left) and Clinton (arguably centrist) Administrations. They've both pushed for balanced budgets, but they also recognize the inherent importance of the state taking care of and protecting the most vulnerable citizens and are willing to spend money, even if the deficit goes up a little, and enact programs to do just that.

However, if there's any real philosophical difference between the two, it is that center-leftists are more trusting of the government and the state, with the possible exception of the security apparatus, than center-rightists, who are more skeptical of things like welfare and public schooling. Not to the same degree as those further to the right, but that skepticism is key to understanding the differences between the two.

I'm trying to figure out which one I am.

I do support government welfare as long as the recipients still contribute to society in some way. Basically, I believe that the government should help the unemployed as long as the unemployed and those struggling financially do their part. Of course, I think there should be exceptions for those with physical or mental handicaps.

I think homeschooling is the ideal form of education, but not all parents are responsible or have the time or resources to homeschool their children, so I believe in improving the quality of public schools since education is a right.

I'm indifferent about the progressive and flat taxes.

Would I lean left or right?

Now that I read this again, I don't think you're homeschooling position would sit comfortably with leftists and even center leftists since the emphasis is on government-funded schooling. That said, center-leftists are decidedly less hostile to the concept of charter and private schools than leftists.

[New West Guiana]

So the BBC are saying that Trump himself has just blamed Hillary for the birther thing in a speech.

Hey, everything Trump did wrong is the fault of Hillary! It's so obvious!

IT'S HILLARY'S FAULT! Will become the new IT'S OBAMA'S FAULT!

[European Guilds]

Hey, everything Trump did wrong is the fault of Hillary! It's so obvious!

IT'S HILLARY'S FAULT! Will become the new IT'S OBAMA'S FAULT!

Thanks Obama Hillary!

[New West Guiana]

Sanders Warns Millennials Not To Cause A ‘Nader Effect’ And Destroy Everything Achieved

[The Huskar Social Union]

So the BBC are saying that Trump himself has just blamed Hillary for the birther thing in a speech.

I tried googling it but could not find it, got a link? Also what is the Birther thing?

[Nordengrund]

I'm trying to figure out which one I am.

I do support government welfare as long as the recipients still contribute to society in some way. Basically, I believe that the government should help the unemployed as long as the unemployed and those struggling financially do their part. Of course, I think there should be exceptions for those with physical or mental handicaps.

I think homeschooling is the ideal form of education, but not all parents are responsible or have the time or resources to homeschool their children, so I believe in improving the quality of public schools since education is a right.

I'm indifferent about the progressive and flat taxes.

Would I lean left or right?

Now that I read this again, I don't think you're homeschooling position would sit comfortably with leftists and even center leftists since the emphasis is on government-funded schooling. That said, center-leftists are decidedly less hostile to the concept of charter and private schools than leftists.

Yeah, I'd probably be a more socially conservative Democrat. I've considered the Blue Dog Coalition, but they seem more like DINOs. I leaned Republican until very recently as I have been alienated by the party's nomination of Trump and I think there is a serious lack of fiscal moderates in the party.

I consider myself a radical centrist, but I still have some conservative sympathies seeing as I support Evan McMullin.

[European Guilds]

So the BBC are saying that Trump himself has just blamed Hillary for the birther thing in a speech.

I tried googling it but could not find it, got a link? Also what is the Birther thing?

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37381452

Birthers are the guys who keep saying that Obama was born in Kenya.

[Eol Sha]

Now that I read this again, I don't think you're homeschooling position would sit comfortably with leftists and even center leftists since the emphasis is on government-funded schooling. That said, center-leftists are decidedly less hostile to the concept of charter and private schools than leftists.

Yeah, I'd probably be a more socially conservative Democrat. I've considered the Blue Dog Coalition, but they seem more like DINOs. I leaned Republican until very recently as I have been alienated by the party's nomination of Trump and I think there is a serious lack of fiscal moderates in the party.

I consider myself a radical centrist, but I still have some conservative sympathies seeing as I support Evan McMullin.

How did you feel about some of the other Republicans running for the nomination because I get the feeling you wouldn't be a fan of Sanders or O'Malley?

[New West Guiana]

So the BBC are saying that Trump himself has just blamed Hillary for the birther thing in a speech.

I tried googling it but could not find it, got a link? Also what is the Birther thing?

http://www.factcheck.org/2015/07/was-hillary-clinton-the-original-birther/

that “birther” advocacy may have originated with supporters of Hillary Clinton — especially since many view it as an exclusively right-wing movement. But whether those theories were advocated by Clinton and/or her campaign or simply by Clinton “supporters” is an important distinction. Candidates are expected to be held accountable for the actions of their campaigns. Neither Cruz nor Trump, whose campaign did not respond to our request for backup material, provides any compelling evidence that either Clinton or her campaign had anything to do with starting the so-called birther movement.

[The Huskar Social Union]

I tried googling it but could not find it, got a link? Also what is the Birther thing?

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37381452

Birthers are the guys who keep saying that Obama was born in Kenya.

I tried googling it but could not find it, got a link? Also what is the Birther thing?

http://www.factcheck.org/2015/07/was-hillary-clinton-the-original-birther/

that “birther” advocacy may have originated with supporters of Hillary Clinton — especially since many view it as an exclusively right-wing movement. But whether those theories were advocated by Clinton and/or her campaign or simply by Clinton “supporters” is an important distinction. Candidates are expected to be held accountable for the actions of their campaigns. Neither Cruz nor Trump, whose campaign did not respond to our request for backup material, provides any compelling evidence that either Clinton or her campaign had anything to do with starting the so-called birther movement.

Thanks.