UK Politics Thread V: Upon This Blasted Heath

[Vassenor]

Also it's cute how people have to keep coming up with semantic arguments for how Vote Leave shouldn't have to deliver on anything they said. It's almost like they admit the whole thing was built on lies.

[HMS Vanguard]

Bullshit. This idea that the FTSE indices are unrelated to the health of the UK economy is purely a Remain invention of the past 3 months.

Major Brexiteer here as you know, I have looked at foreign earnings and possible currency fluctuations (where relevant) when picking stocks since I started investing 6/7 years ago. It's just not the sort of thing that usually makes the regular news. Companies can and can't give clues on the UK economy depending on what proportion of their earnings are from the UK among other things. I would never say it's totally unrelated but neither is it ever totally related either.

It's not an invention, it just never usually has a reason to come up.

The media narrative is that FTSE 100 numbers are irrelevant to the health of the UK economy. This is a partisan fiction that didn't exist in the public consciousness before June.

Of course it's true that some FTSE 100 revenue does come from abroad, that fact just doesn't do the work the media people are trying to say it does.

In the first place, the main harm of Brexit is supposed to be worsened trade status. If that is the case, shouldn't a company that trades physical products in 30 countries, including EU countries, be expected to suffer more than a company that does accountancy work for small firms in the UK? How would the latter plausibly be affected by Brexit? In fact the main reason the 250 took a bigger initial hit and was slower to recover has not been because the 250 contains a broad class of "domestic firms", because the 250 contains a lot specifically of house builders and the house building sector is the one hardest hit. Why? Because immigration is expected to drive up house prices!

In the second, just because much revenue comes from abroad doesn't mean all of it does. The UK is still a bigger source of revenue for FTSE 100 companies than any other single country. A significant drop in the UK economy should still manifest itself as a significant drop in the FTSE 100, as everyone before June acted as if they believed, it would just be smaller than otherwise.

[HMS Vanguard]

You pretend that you do not understand what I am saying, or that I am talking nonsense, then you propose I do things that don't make sense unless you understood full well what I was saying.

I just misunderstood you at first. So are you going to do the calculation?

Low unemployment is a result of correct pricing of labour.
How is it incoherent?

Because I'm not sure I know what it means for labour to be 'correctly priced', or why it even matters whether the result of an economic shock is to drop wages significantly (which they won't, because wages are sticky) or more unemployment, unless you think the wage decline will also cause some benign deflation (which it won't).

How does currency depreciation creating an inflation shock create unemployment in conditions of sticky wages? Should rather do the opposite, if it does anything at all.

I do not think currency depreciation will create unemployment, quite the opposite, I think it might reduce unemployment.

Then what are you arguing about? You've given no reason to think Brexit should result in higher unemployment, and it's not clear to me that you even think it will.

OK: so please link to Remain promotional material that stated "the negative effects of Brexit can be eliminated by central bank action".

You're confusing campaigners with experts again.

Astronomer is defined by ability to make correct positions.

No it isn't lol.

My position is that pretty much everyone commenting on economics is a quack.

Your position is wrong.

I have made no specific prediction of the short term economic effects of Brexit, nor have I endorsed other peoples', nor did I base my vote in the referendum on beliefs about the short term economic effects of either option.

It is if you wish to present NSG Hydesland Experts as predicting a heads outcome.

But I'm not predicting a heads outcome, I'm stating a probability.[/quote]
Your position looks an awful lot like, "The experts agreed with you, HMS Vanguard, but were misreported by the media.". That may be so, as I didn't look in detail at all the primary sources. If that is so, I apologise to the "experts", and will direct my scorn at bent journalists in future.

[Philjia]

Raheem Kassam pulls out of UKIP leadership race. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37821383

The remaining candidates are:
Suzanne Evans
Paul Nuttall
John Rees Evans
Peter Whittle

Suzanne Evans is the least unhinged, although that might make UKIP electable, so I hope either Peter Whittle (Who's too weird looking to be elected) or Paul Nuttall win.

[The Nihilistic view]

Should the gov. guarantee the right of EU citizens to continue living and working in the UK post-Brexit?
Yes: 58%
No: 28%
(via BMG)

I know I shouldn't be, but I'm almost surprised that the "No" side is so high.

Bit of a none descript question. I always worry about a poll when it's not clear what they mean and/or they don't adress the issue totally. Do they mean all EU citizens, the ones already here and do they mean with or without a reciprocal guarantee? It's different depending on those points.

[Imperializt Russia]

http://metro.co.uk/2015/06/05/your-facebook-twitter-and-blog-are-about-to-be-monitored-for-references-to-the-government-5232639/

HOW DID I MISS THIS

Well i have Sassy Socialist Memes liked on Facebook soo when am i being sent off to prison as an enemy of the state?

After I, no doubt.

Should the gov. guarantee the right of EU citizens to continue living and working in the UK post-Brexit?
Yes: 58%
No: 28%
(via BMG)

I know I shouldn't be, but I'm almost surprised that the "No" side is so high.

Bit of a none descript question. I always worry about a poll when it's not clear what they mean and/or they don't adress the issue totally. Do they mean all EU citizens, the ones already here and do they mean with or without a reciprocal guarantee? It's different depending on those points.

It's quite blatantly referring to those already here, because asking "should EU citizens be guaranteed the right to free movement after Brexit regardless of a free movement agreement" is either redundant or silly.

[Valaran]

Raheem Kassam pulls out of UKIP leadership race. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37821383

The remaining candidates are:
Suzanne Evans
Paul Nuttall
John Rees Evans
Peter Whittle

Suzanne Evans is the least unhinged, although that might make UKIP electable, so I hope either Peter Whittle (Who's too weird looking to be elected) or Paul Nuttall win.

I'd prefer Nuttall than Whittle, since I reckon the former will angle himself as a cut-price Farage.

[HMS Vanguard]

Does anyone have a good idea what the ideological issues are in the UKIP leadership election? I am a hard Brexiter and politics dork and yet I haven't a clue.

[Valaran]

Does anyone have a good idea what the ideological issues are in the UKIP leadership election? I am a hard Brexiter and politics dork and yet I haven't a clue.

afaik, UKIP's current ideological position is so confused that this election is primarily being fought on the personality and qualities of the prospective leaders, plus with some added factionalism.

Ironically, the only one that made much in the way of headlines concerning ideology was Kassam, who wanted to ban the niqab, defended Trump, and said he was against any drift 'to centrism'.

The ideological debate of the previous election mostly revolved around whether to take a hard anti-islam stance or not, and whether they are actually libertarians or quite statist, but both of those debates were relatively subdued. Very broadly speaking, UKIP is still having these debates in this election, but again they are mostly sideshows.

[The Nihilistic view]

Major Brexiteer here as you know, I have looked at foreign earnings and possible currency fluctuations (where relevant) when picking stocks since I started investing 6/7 years ago. It's just not the sort of thing that usually makes the regular news. Companies can and can't give clues on the UK economy depending on what proportion of their earnings are from the UK among other things. I would never say it's totally unrelated but neither is it ever totally related either.

It's not an invention, it just never usually has a reason to come up.

The media narrative is that FTSE 100 numbers are irrelevant to the health of the UK economy. This is a partisan fiction that didn't exist in the public consciousness before June.

Of course it's true that some FTSE 100 revenue does come from abroad, that fact just doesn't do the work the media people are trying to say it does.

In the first place, the main harm of Brexit is supposed to be worsened trade status. If that is the case, shouldn't a company that trades physical products in 30 countries, including EU countries, be expected to suffer more than a company that does accountancy work for small firms in the UK? How would the latter plausibly be affected by Brexit? In fact the main reason the 250 took a bigger initial hit and was slower to recover has not been because the 250 contains a broad class of "domestic firms", because the 250 contains a lot specifically of house builders and the house building sector is the one hardest hit. Why? Because immigration is expected to drive up house prices!

In the second, just because much revenue comes from abroad doesn't mean all of it does. The UK is still a bigger source of revenue for FTSE 100 companies than any other single country. A significant drop in the UK economy should still manifest itself as a significant drop in the FTSE 100, as everyone before June acted as if they believed, it would just be smaller than otherwise.

That's not really how it works. In the case of a firm selling say 80% of it's stuff to 30 other contries either they can put up the price abroad so the make more UK pounds or they can keep the price the same but sell more stuff as in the foriegn currency their stuff looks cheaper. With regards to the currency. Right now the trade status is not worse, they only thing to change is the UK currency so it's actually better conditions for companies bringing revenue back to the UK for the time being. The accountancy firm probably should not be worrying either though at the moment, it's generally something other businesses can't do without.

[Dumb Ideologies]

Should the gov. guarantee the right of EU citizens to continue living and working in the UK post-Brexit?
Yes: 58%
No: 28%
(via BMG)

I know I shouldn't be, but I'm almost surprised that the "No" side is so high.

58% of people think the UK should unilaterally throw away all their bargaining chips prior to the start of the card game.

Let's hope none of them are in the negotiation team...

[HMS Vanguard]

Does anyone have a good idea what the ideological issues are in the UKIP leadership election? I am a hard Brexiter and politics dork and yet I haven't a clue.

afaik, UKIP's current ideological position is so confused that this election is primarily being fought on the personality and qualities of the prospective leaders, plus with some added factionalism.

Ironically, the only one that made much in the way of headlines concerning ideology was Kassam, who wanted to ban the niqab, defended Trump, and said he was against any drift 'to centrism'.

The ideological debate of the previous election mostly revolved around whether to take a hard anti-islam stance or not, and whether they are actually libertarians or quite statist, but both of those debates were relatively subdued. Very broadly speaking, UKIP is still having these debates in this election, but again they are mostly sideshows.

It seems to me that these are not just ideological decisions but vital strategic decisions.

Can UKIP actually break through as a centrist party with the EU referendum delivered and won and May stomping on their Red Tory feet? It doesn't look like they are going to displace the Tories any time soon and they certainly aren't going to steal Corbyn's voters. If they can't displace one of the two main parties, they have no future as a mainstream party under FPTP.

Alternatively, if it is going to be a fringe party aimed at reframing the debate rather than winning elections, what are its issues? Is there actually a viable community of thought inside the party or is it too fragmented on any question other than the EU? People call UKIP an anti-immigration party but they are not even united on that: Carswell is on record as being in favour of immigration.

Should there be a candidate standing on the platform of quietly wrapping the party up?

[Dumb Ideologies]

Does anyone have a good idea what the ideological issues are in the UKIP leadership election? I am a hard Brexiter and politics dork and yet I haven't a clue.

afaik, UKIP's current ideological position is so confused that this election is primarily being fought on the personality and qualities of the prospective leaders, plus with some added factionalism.

Ironically, the only one that made much in the way of headlines concerning ideology was Kassam, who wanted to ban the niqab, defended Trump, and said he was against any drift 'to centrism'.

The ideological debate of the previous election mostly revolved around whether to take a hard anti-islam stance or not, and whether they are actually libertarians or quite statist, but both of those debates were relatively subdued. Very broadly speaking, UKIP is still having these debates in this election, but again they are mostly sideshows.

Is the niqab the ninja postbox one? Pretty hard to integrate wearing that - I can see the logic. What is the deal with kippers defending Trump? It's like a crap internet meme standing for President.

[HMS Vanguard]

The media narrative is that FTSE 100 numbers are irrelevant to the health of the UK economy. This is a partisan fiction that didn't exist in the public consciousness before June.

Of course it's true that some FTSE 100 revenue does come from abroad, that fact just doesn't do the work the media people are trying to say it does.

In the first place, the main harm of Brexit is supposed to be worsened trade status. If that is the case, shouldn't a company that trades physical products in 30 countries, including EU countries, be expected to suffer more than a company that does accountancy work for small firms in the UK? How would the latter plausibly be affected by Brexit? In fact the main reason the 250 took a bigger initial hit and was slower to recover has not been because the 250 contains a broad class of "domestic firms", because the 250 contains a lot specifically of house builders and the house building sector is the one hardest hit. Why? Because immigration is expected to drive up house prices!

In the second, just because much revenue comes from abroad doesn't mean all of it does. The UK is still a bigger source of revenue for FTSE 100 companies than any other single country. A significant drop in the UK economy should still manifest itself as a significant drop in the FTSE 100, as everyone before June acted as if they believed, it would just be smaller than otherwise.

That's not really how it works. In the case of a firm selling say 80% of it's stuff to 30 other contries either they can put up the price abroad so the make more UK pounds or they can keep the price the same but sell more stuff as in the foriegn currency their stuff looks cheaper. With regards to the currency. Right now the trade status is not worse, they only thing to change is the UK currency so it's actually better conditions for companies bringing revenue back to the UK for the time being. The accountancy firm probably should not be worrying either though at the moment, it's generally something other businesses can't do without.

Right now the trade status is not worse but the markets price predicted future outcomes. That is why the currency has dropped.

[Salandriagado]

afaik, UKIP's current ideological position is so confused that this election is primarily being fought on the personality and qualities of the prospective leaders, plus with some added factionalism.

Ironically, the only one that made much in the way of headlines concerning ideology was Kassam, who wanted to ban the niqab, defended Trump, and said he was against any drift 'to centrism'.

The ideological debate of the previous election mostly revolved around whether to take a hard anti-islam stance or not, and whether they are actually libertarians or quite statist, but both of those debates were relatively subdued. Very broadly speaking, UKIP is still having these debates in this election, but again they are mostly sideshows.

Is the niqab the ninja postbox one? Pretty hard to integrate wearing that - I can see the logic. What is the deal with kippers defending Trump? It's like a crap internet meme standing for President.

The niqab is the veil over the mouth area.

[Frank Zipper]

The main issue in the UKIP leadership contest seems to be 'does Aaron Banks like you?'.

[Dumb Ideologies]

Is the niqab the ninja postbox one? Pretty hard to integrate wearing that - I can see the logic. What is the deal with kippers defending Trump? It's like a crap internet meme standing for President.

The niqab is the veil over the mouth area.

Oh. Which one is the one that covers absolutely everything on the body except the eyes?

[Tananat]

The niqab is the veil over the mouth area.

Oh. Which one is the one that covers absolutely everything on the body except the eyes?

Burqa.

[Salandriagado]

The niqab is the veil over the mouth area.

Oh. Which one is the one that covers absolutely everything on the body except the eyes?

Burka, though you could get a similar effect by combining a Niqab with a particularly low headscarf and/or an eye veil.


As with almost everything else, Newsround has a handy summary.

[Philjia]

Oh. Which one is the one that covers absolutely everything on the body except the eyes?

Burqa.

Burqa covers the eyes as well using mesh.

[Ifreann]

The niqab is the veil over the mouth area.

Oh. Which one is the one that covers absolutely everything on the body except the eyes?

The burqa.

[Frank Zipper]

[Dumb Ideologies]

Egads, there's even one that covers the eyes behind a mesh?

I like to think that there's reason behind my personal distastes - surely it's not just me who sees things like this as a huge barrier to effective integration and the principles behind them as reflective of some pretty messed up values towards women? Or maybe I've gone off the deep end into Stormsfrontville and should commit seppuku upon realizing my inherent degeneracy?

[Ifreann]

What if women in burqas are actually three economic migrants standing on each other's shoulders?

[The Huskar Social Union]

What if women in burqas are actually three economic migrants standing on each other's shoulders?

*exaggerated gasp*

Well my god man! It all makes sense now!