UK Politics Thread V: Upon This Blasted Heath

[South Park Labourite]

Gosh, well that is just awful. It is going to keep up up all night that I couldn't get a racist to stop being racist by laughing at another racist.

No, but perhaps I harboured some vain hope that it would trouble your conscience when trying to make the six-trillionth unoriginal jibe at "those ignorant racists who can't argue like an intellectual NSGeneralite like meh!"

Also I don't think I've ever mentioned any views on race here. Don't make unsubstantiated claims.

It's not even a case of NSG... those sort of views would certainly get laughed at in polite society. Maybe you could get away with it in the pub... maybe.

[Blybergia]

That sounds like yourself...

Prove it.

It's so obvious I may as well not...

[FelrikTheDeleted]

No, but perhaps I harboured some vain hope that it would trouble your conscience when trying to make the six-trillionth unoriginal jibe at "those ignorant racists who can't argue like an intellectual NSGeneralite like meh!"

Also I don't think I've ever mentioned any views on race here. Don't make unsubstantiated claims.

It's not even a case of NSG... those sort of views would certainly get laughed at in polite society. Maybe you could get away with it in the pub... maybe.

I doubt he'd get away with it in most Pubs.

[Even Less of Mackonia]

Prove it.

It's so obvious I may as well not...

Not an argument.

No, but perhaps I harboured some vain hope that it would trouble your conscience when trying to make the six-trillionth unoriginal jibe at "those ignorant racists who can't argue like an intellectual NSGeneralite like meh!"

Also I don't think I've ever mentioned any views on race here. Don't make unsubstantiated claims.

It's not even a case of NSG... those sort of views would certainly get laughed at in polite society. Maybe you could get away with it in the pub... maybe.

And when has what polite society laughed at been a criterion for truth?

[Hydesland]

but if the outcome is that 1 in 30 black applicants is accepted and 1 in 3 Chinese applicants is accepted, will you tolerate that outcome?

Given the huge cultural, institutional, economic and educational differences between African nations and China, what on earth makes you think this discrepancy would be framed as a biological thing?

[Eastfield Lodge]

Boers are inbred as well you know right? Do you support limiting Boer immigration if they were persecuted (which they are not)?

I'd need to see some evidence, i'm not aware of it, but if it were the case, then yes, probably. I'd also need to see statistics on their social attitudes and crime rates and such. I don't hide the fact that i'm opposed to immigration from communities that are opposed to LGBT rights and gender equality.

So that rules out the USA, Ireland and Eastern Europe, at a minimum.

[Ostroeuropa]

I'd need to see some evidence, i'm not aware of it, but if it were the case, then yes, probably. I'd also need to see statistics on their social attitudes and crime rates and such. I don't hide the fact that i'm opposed to immigration from communities that are opposed to LGBT rights and gender equality.

So that rules out the USA, Ireland and Eastern Europe, at a minimum.

Arguably yes. Though Ireland probably not. There, it's the government dragging its feet. I've already been explicit that I want northern ireland given an ultimatum on this issue to get on board with gay marriage, or be ejected from the union.

[South Park Labourite]

It's not even a case of NSG... those sort of views would certainly get laughed at in polite society. Maybe you could get away with it in the pub... maybe.

And when has what polite society laughed at been a criterion for truth?

Because we're well-educated, smarter, funnier, cleaner and commit far less crime. Next.

[Even Less of Mackonia]

And when has what polite society laughed at been a criterion for truth?

Because we're well-educated, smarter, funnier, cleaner and commit far less crime. Next.

NSG certainly is not smarter or funnier than most of society.

Unless your point of comparison were common bricks and the duller species of dog.

[Eastfield Lodge]

So that rules out the USA, Ireland and Eastern Europe, at a minimum.

Arguably yes.

No, definitely yes. Remember you said that individualised checks on foreigners was not cost-effective, so you can only block by nation. You've already stated all Muslim countries/Africa on the list. You can add South America as well. Gender equality could probably rule out the Far East as well. This pool of white-listed nations is getting extremely small...

[South Park Labourite]

Because we're well-educated, smarter, funnier, cleaner and commit far less crime. Next.

NSG certainly is not smarter or funnier than most of society.

Unless your point of comparison were common bricks and the duller species of dog.

Oh no, god no I'm not talking about NSG. I'm talking about polite society. The upstanding citizens of this country.

[HMS Vanguard]

That's right. The probability that there will be increased trade barriers in the near future has made imports more expensive and exports less expensive. That's to be expected.

And through simple arithmetic, boosted earnings of multinational firms that dominate the FTSE, it's just not that informative.

It is informative: it shows that their earnings are not expected to reduce. If they were, the total value of the FTSE would decline in fixed pre-referendum pounds.

What it has not done is reduced the productivity of the economy

Nothing has happened yet, how could the vote have possibly done that?

You are trying to have it both ways. If the market doesn't anticipate future conditions, the currency movements can't have been due to Brexit either.

or the proportion of people who are employed. I see no reason from economic theory to have ever expected that, and it hasn't happened.

There is no economic theory to suggest the vote alone would reduce productivity. But are you seriously saying you can think of no economic theory that links investment to confidence about the future, and no economic theory that links investment to employment, none at all? Do you think confidence, investment and employment are totally invariant? Answer this question.

I think this is word soup. I cannot answer this question because I do not understand it.

Just a random article I was linked from around that time: https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... exit-slump

These "experts" were wrong about the GDP and wrong about unemployment.

A 50:50 chance, 0.5% growth doesn't disprove that. One of two outcomes in a 50:50 chance prediction actually happening does not disprove that something was 50:50, you do realize this right? Plus:

" 320,000 jobs would be lost by the third quarter of next year "

Third quarter of next year, that's plenty of time, and that's a conditional forecast assuming the BoE doesn't use a sledgehammer - which many argue it already has done, by implementing more stimulus and allowing the currency to drop so massively.

What we observe is that GDP and unemployment trends followed the no-Brexit predictions. Yes, maybe this is just a result of chance, but there is no positive reason to believe what the "experts" predicted. It's just not conclusively proved that they were 100% full of shit.

No it has not. It has resulted in inflation up by perhaps 1 percentage point in conditions where growth still exceeds inflation. It has had a real impact on consumers that amounts to mild inconvenience.

Try having a holiday right now, try importing something from overseas, try buying a new apple computer etc... How buried in sand is your head right now? Plus, a 1 percentage point is a real measurable impact - and we don't know what the total impact on inflation will be, it could take a while to kick in.

What percentage of your income do you spend on Apple computers and foreign holidays? The value of the pound dropped about 15%. If you spend about 10% of your income on these things then the amount by which your purchasing power has dropped is about 1.5%.

Sure, it's not nothing, and I'm not saying it is. But it's a minor effect, a loss of less than one year's growth.

It's also something I don't remember being discussed before it happened, and don't remember being emphasised until it became the only negative consequence. We were promised recession - didn't happen.

[Ifreann]

Gosh, well that is just awful. It is going to keep up up all night that I couldn't get a racist to stop being racist by laughing at another racist.

No, but perhaps I harboured some vain hope that it would trouble your conscience when trying to make the six-trillionth unoriginal jibe at "those ignorant racists who can't argue like an intellectual NSGeneralite like meh!"

I can't imagine why it would trouble my conscience to laugh at people talking shit on the internet.

Also I don't think I've ever mentioned any views on race here. Don't make unsubstantiated claims.

Heaven forfend.

[HMS Vanguard]

That is misleading. Any system that really selects for skills in a hard way will be racist, and be seen as and called racist, because the races aren't equally capable. Yes, by all means choose based on individual capability, but if the outcome is that 1 in 30 black applicants is accepted and 1 in 3 Chinese applicants is accepted, will you tolerate that outcome?

That wouldn't be racist. Banning Africans or Chinese people as a rule would be.

Fine, I'm happy with such a system. When people say that those ratios mean it's obviously rigged, though, will you defend the system? If you don't believe in racial differences, on what possible grounds could you defend it?

[Even Less of Mackonia]

No, but perhaps I harboured some vain hope that it would trouble your conscience when trying to make the six-trillionth unoriginal jibe at "those ignorant racists who can't argue like an intellectual NSGeneralite like meh!"

I can't imagine why it would trouble my conscience to laugh at people talking shit on the internet.

Also I don't think I've ever mentioned any views on race here. Don't make unsubstantiated claims.

Heaven forfend.

Because you've yet to show how its shit, and thus making yourself the far bigger shit-talker who deserves nothing but greater ridicule.
.

[HMS Vanguard]

but if the outcome is that 1 in 30 black applicants is accepted and 1 in 3 Chinese applicants is accepted, will you tolerate that outcome?

Given the huge cultural, institutional, economic and educational differences between African nations and China, what on earth makes you think this discrepancy would be framed as a biological thing?

You know there are countries where ethnic Africans and ethnic Chinese both live under the same laws and with the same institutions and with (compared to the transnational comparison) very similar and uniformly high incomes?

[South Park Labourite]

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/ec ... wn-economy

Liam the Fox has a scrap at Phillip the Remoaning Chicken.

[Vassenor]

https://mic.com/articles/114962/here-s-how-iceland-became-the-most-feminist-country-in-the-world#.H2FlzpvtU

Liam the Fox has a scrap at Phillip the Remoaning Chicken.

I think you posted the wrong link.

[South Park Labourite]

https://mic.com/articles/114962/here-s-how-iceland-became-the-most-feminist-country-in-the-world#.H2FlzpvtU

Liam the Fox has a scrap at Phillip the Remoaning Chicken.

I think you posted the wrong link.

Cheers matey, corrected.

[Hydesland]

It is informative: it shows that their earnings are not expected to reduce. If they were, the total value of the FTSE would decline in fixed pre-referendum pounds.

Because they are multinational firms, such as miners who mine in south America - the UK market is not as relevant.

You are trying to have it both ways. If the market doesn't anticipate future conditions, the currency movements can't have been due to Brexit either.

I'm not, markets do anticipate future events, and this mainly affects demand/investment, not productivity.

I think this is word soup. I cannot answer this question because I do not understand it.

Does investor confidence have an effect on investment? Does investment have an effect on employment? Answer these two questions.

What we observe is that GDP and unemployment trends followed the no-Brexit predictions. Yes, maybe this is just a result of chance, but there is no positive reason to believe what the "experts" predicted. It's just not conclusively proved that they were 100% full of shit.

Nothing has been proven at all. They said there might be a recession in 2017 but there might not be. They also said that the measures the BoE have already done might counteract all this - so basically everything is falling in line with their predictions fairly well.

Sure, it's not nothing, and I'm not saying it is.

You said earlier nothing happened, now you're simply downplaying the depreciation as 'minor'.

It's also something I don't remember being discussed before it happened, and don't remember being emphasised until it became the only negative consequence.

http://www.euroexchangeratenews.co.uk/h ... rket-16319

The majority of forecasts agree that a ‘Brexit’ vote would see Pound Sterling drop in value as investors deserted the British asset, at least until the extent of the economic impact of leaving the EU could be assessed. Goldman Sachs have issued the most dovish prediction, stating that, ‘We argue that, if the UK voted to leave the EU, the UK’s current account deficit would still be a source of vulnerability despite some recent improvement. An abrupt and total interruption to incoming capital flows in response to a ‘Brexit’ could see the Pound decline by as much as 15-20%.’

We were promised recession - didn't happen.

You already disproved that. What you linked to only said there might be a recession in 2017, and only if the BoE or fiscal authorities take no stimulative measures. That's not promising recession right after the vote.

[Ifreann]

I'd need to see some evidence, i'm not aware of it, but if it were the case, then yes, probably. I'd also need to see statistics on their social attitudes and crime rates and such. I don't hide the fact that i'm opposed to immigration from communities that are opposed to LGBT rights and gender equality.

So that rules out the USA, Ireland and Eastern Europe, at a minimum.

And also the UK.

---

I can't imagine why it would trouble my conscience to laugh at people talking shit on the internet.


Heaven forfend.

Because you've yet to show how its shit, and thus making yourself the far bigger shit-talker who deserves nothing but greater ridicule.
.

Someone might laugh at me on the internet? Goodness. That might hurt my feelings.

[Hydesland]

Given the huge cultural, institutional, economic and educational differences between African nations and China, what on earth makes you think this discrepancy would be framed as a biological thing?

You know there are countries where ethnic Africans and ethnic Chinese both live under the same laws and with the same institutions and with (compared to the transnational comparison) very similar and uniformly high incomes?

And the vast majority of migrants wont be from those countries.

[Tananat]

I find it hilarious when people go on about 'effective immigration policies' and 'taking back borders' and all that other shit when we need 280,000 net immigrants per year, every year from now until 2060 in order to maintain current debt to gdp levels and ensure standards of living don't drop massively.

And by hilarious I mean 'really really fucking dumb'.

Why would that happen if you removed immigrants?

The Office for Budgetary Responsibility speculated in 2013 that having net immigration at zero would raise debt to 175% of GDP by 2060.

[Tananat]

I am not British but if I were I would probably support The Labour Party. As far as I know they are the only party which will support the trans community and redistribute the wealth to create a responsible society, they are the only progressives.

Labour aren't the only progressives and I say that as a Labour Party member. The Liberal Democrats and the Greens both have adopted policies that in some cases are more progressive than Labour.

[HMS Vanguard]

It is informative: it shows that their earnings are not expected to reduce. If they were, the total value of the FTSE would decline in fixed pre-referendum pounds.

Because they are multinational firms, such as miners who mine in south America - the UK market is not as relevant.

Bullshit. This idea that the FTSE indices are unrelated to the health of the UK economy is purely a Remain invention of the past 3 months.

You are trying to have it both ways. If the market doesn't anticipate future conditions, the currency movements can't have been due to Brexit either.

I'm not, markets do anticipate future events, and this mainly affects demand/investment, not productivity.

That doesn't make any sense. Productivity determines how much is produced, which determines prices.

I think this is word soup. I cannot answer this question because I do not understand it.

Does investor confidence have an effect on investment? Does investment have an effect on employment? Answer these two questions.

Yes. No.

What we observe is that GDP and unemployment trends followed the no-Brexit predictions. Yes, maybe this is just a result of chance, but there is no positive reason to believe what the "experts" predicted. It's just not conclusively proved that they were 100% full of shit.

Nothing has been proven at all. They said there might be a recession in 2017 but there might not be. They also said that the measures the BoE have already done might counteract all this - so basically everything is falling in line with their predictions fairly well.

You blustered into this debate with the position that the "experts" were highly reliable. What you are saying now is that although their predictions were wrong, and were less accurate than those of the political Leave campaign, it's possible that this was due to chance rather than incompetence. OK, I will share that ground with you.

Sure, it's not nothing, and I'm not saying it is.

You said earlier nothing happened, now you're simply downplaying the depreciation as 'minor'.

I said nothing happened to GDP or unemployment. I do expect increased trade barriers would reduce the value of the pound, at least in the short run.

It's also something I don't remember being discussed before it happened, and don't remember being emphasised until it became the only negative consequence.

http://www.euroexchangeratenews.co.uk/h ... rket-16319

Sure, people with a specific interest in FX discussed how Brexit might affect FX. The mainstream media did not lead with articles about FX.

We were promised recession - didn't happen.

You already disproved that. What you linked to only said there might be a recession in 2017, and only if the BoE or fiscal authorities take no stimulative measures. That's not promising recession right after the vote.

Right and if I say an asteroid might hit earth before you read this post, there's really no reason to see that prediction as less than perfect because I also said it might not happen. Great.

What knowledge do "experts" add? When have they been right when others have been wrong? If they are very often wrong but admit that their predictions are highly likely to be wrong, why do you talk as if "expert" predictions should be taken seriously, rather than treated as speculation?