Hmm. I'm not yet convinced that McMullin will be enough of a factor in Utah, but I'm not convinced that it's implausible, either.
I'm guessing that you've got a similar spoiler result in mind for Montana, but more from Johnson than McMullin, right?
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by Icamera » Mon Aug 08, 2016 3:49 pm
Rynatia wrote:If I asked you to sleep with me would you answer with the same answer to this question?
by New Jerzylvania » Mon Aug 08, 2016 3:50 pm
Pantuxia wrote:The Romulan Republic wrote:
Its not so much that I doubt Mormon country could flip. Its that going by the numbers, it would be a hell of an odd situation where all of the others I listed flipped and SC didn't, since SC looks like the next to flip in the nowcast.
Well, I see South Carolina as the more blue-collar and Republican version of North Carolina, so, at least for now, I don't think Clinton will get many votes in SC. Montana, did however, flip to blue for Clinton's husband in 1992, and Montana is one of the states that libertarians usually do well in.
by PaNTuXIa » Mon Aug 08, 2016 3:52 pm
Icamera wrote:Pantuxia wrote:Utah will split because of Johnson and the CIA guy.
Hmm. I'm not yet convinced that McMullin will be enough of a factor in Utah, but I'm not convinced that it's implausible, either.
I'm guessing that you've got a similar spoiler result in mind for Montana, but more from Johnson than McMullin, right?
by Icamera » Mon Aug 08, 2016 3:55 pm
New Jerzylvania wrote:The Romulan Republic wrote:
If fivethirtyeight is anything to go by, I doubt that Montana, Utah, Missouri, and Indiana will flip and South Carolina won't.
They have no stats on the McMullin candidacy yet. Likely effect in Utah, maybe even NV and AZ which have significant Morman populations. MT is probably too red for it to matter, but it's an outside bc there's a bunch of Mormans there too. Clinton just won't get enough votes to hold up her end there. It may now have become Johnson's best shot.
Rynatia wrote:If I asked you to sleep with me would you answer with the same answer to this question?
by PaNTuXIa » Mon Aug 08, 2016 3:58 pm
Icamera wrote:New Jerzylvania wrote:They have no stats on the McMullin candidacy yet. Likely effect in Utah, maybe even NV and AZ which have significant Morman populations. MT is probably too red for it to matter, but it's an outside bc there's a bunch of Mormans there too. Clinton just won't get enough votes to hold up her end there. It may now have become Johnson's best shot.
McMullin could affect things in Utah, where almost everyone is Mormon, but IIRC, Mormons have an abysmal voter turnout rate. If that's true, it'll definitely diminish the chances of his campaign stealing very much of Trump's base in Nevada or Arizona.
by Corrian » Mon Aug 08, 2016 3:58 pm
by New Jerzylvania » Mon Aug 08, 2016 3:59 pm
Icamera wrote:New Jerzylvania wrote:They have no stats on the McMullin candidacy yet. Likely effect in Utah, maybe even NV and AZ which have significant Morman populations. MT is probably too red for it to matter, but it's an outside bc there's a bunch of Mormans there too. Clinton just won't get enough votes to hold up her end there. It may now have become Johnson's best shot.
McMullin could affect things in Utah, where almost everyone is Mormon, but IIRC, Mormons have an abysmal voter turnout rate. If that's true, it'll definitely diminish the chances of his campaign stealing very much of Trump's base in Nevada or Arizona.
by Farnhamia » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:00 pm
by Hurdergaryp » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:01 pm
New Jerzylvania wrote:Icamera wrote:McMullin could affect things in Utah, where almost everyone is Mormon, but IIRC, Mormons have an abysmal voter turnout rate. If that's true, it'll definitely diminish the chances of his campaign stealing very much of Trump's base in Nevada or Arizona.
OTOH, Trump is quite a motivational speaker ...as in reverse.
by New Jerzylvania » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:01 pm
Pantuxia wrote:Icamera wrote:McMullin could affect things in Utah, where almost everyone is Mormon, but IIRC, Mormons have an abysmal voter turnout rate. If that's true, it'll definitely diminish the chances of his campaign stealing very much of Trump's base in Nevada or Arizona.
Still, Johnson polled at 16 percent today.
by New Jerzylvania » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:03 pm
by PaNTuXIa » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:03 pm
by Maurepas » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:09 pm
Patridam wrote:So Donald Trump may or may not have early onset dementia, and Hillary Clinton has a handler carrying seizure medication for her and has a tendency to fall. Is... Is Johnson at least healthy?
by Farnhamia » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:13 pm
New Jerzylvania wrote:Pantuxia wrote:Well, I see South Carolina as the more blue-collar and Republican version of North Carolina, so, at least for now, I don't think Clinton will get many votes in SC. Montana, did however, flip to blue for Clinton's husband in 1992, and Montana is one of the states that libertarians usually do well in.
I believe the African American population in SC is in the 40-50 percentile range. Hillary is winning them 93-6 in one of the latest nationwide polls. Hello South Carolina!
by Philjia » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:14 pm
Nemesis the Warlock wrote:I am the Nemesis, I am the Warlock, I am the shape of things to come, the Lord of the Flies, holder of the Sword Sinister, the Death Bringer, I am the one who waits on the edge of your dreams, I am all these things and many more
by Liriena » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:17 pm
I am: A pansexual, pantheist, green socialist An aspiring writer and journalist | Political compass stuff: Economic Left/Right: -8.13 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.92 For: Grassroots democracy, workers' self-management, humanitarianism, pacifism, pluralism, environmentalism, interculturalism, indigenous rights, minority rights, LGBT+ rights, feminism, optimism Against: Nationalism, authoritarianism, fascism, conservatism, populism, violence, ethnocentrism, racism, sexism, religious bigotry, anti-LGBT+ bigotry, death penalty, neoliberalism, tribalism, cynicism ⚧Copy and paste this in your sig if you passed biology and know gender and sex aren't the same thing.⚧ |
by Ashmoria » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:20 pm
Saiwania wrote:Ashmoria wrote:He was probably right about ted cruz. God willing we will never find out for sure.
Like Ted Cruz or not, unlike Trump he actually debates and has policy substance to his platform. Was part of the debate club in his youth. All Trump ever does is wing it. That is the primary reason why he is losing by so much, it is because he is the "emperor with no clothes."
Republicans had the opportunity to nominate perhaps the greatest constitutional conservative in a generation, someone who might've been as great as Reagan in the long run. Instead we got a charlatan like Trump who says and does stupid stuff. An utter disgrace.
by Maurepas » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:21 pm
Farnhamia wrote:New Jerzylvania wrote:
I believe the African American population in SC is in the 40-50 percentile range. Hillary is winning them 93-6 in one of the latest nationwide polls. Hello South Carolina!
South Carolina's black population is 28%, behind Mississippi (37%), Louisiana (32%), Georgia (31%) and Maryland (29%). http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/08/opini ... -belt.html
by Neutraligon » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:23 pm
Maurepas wrote:Farnhamia wrote:South Carolina's black population is 28%, behind Mississippi (37%), Louisiana (32%), Georgia (31%) and Maryland (29%). http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/08/opini ... -belt.html
If Trump has alienated enough white people into voting for anyone other than him, and we can get some good black turnout, I'm kind of hopeful Mississippi, Georgia, and/or Louisiana could turn.
I mean, it's an extreme longshot by any stretch of the imagination, but that's still better than the dead certainty it usually is, lol.
by Farnhamia » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:26 pm
Liriena wrote:Gosh, that now-cast keeps making my day. :3
by Liriena » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:32 pm
Farnhamia wrote:Liriena wrote:Gosh, that now-cast keeps making my day. :3
Shouldn't their noses stick over the top, like in "Kilroy Was Here" graffiti?
I am: A pansexual, pantheist, green socialist An aspiring writer and journalist | Political compass stuff: Economic Left/Right: -8.13 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.92 For: Grassroots democracy, workers' self-management, humanitarianism, pacifism, pluralism, environmentalism, interculturalism, indigenous rights, minority rights, LGBT+ rights, feminism, optimism Against: Nationalism, authoritarianism, fascism, conservatism, populism, violence, ethnocentrism, racism, sexism, religious bigotry, anti-LGBT+ bigotry, death penalty, neoliberalism, tribalism, cynicism ⚧Copy and paste this in your sig if you passed biology and know gender and sex aren't the same thing.⚧ |
by Ashmoria » Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:32 pm
Patridam wrote:Geilinor wrote:This is the first I've heard of Clinton having epilepsy.
According to Snopes, the claim is false. http://www.snopes.com/hillary-clinton-seizure-video/
That's not the "evidence" to which I was referring. This would be more relevant:
https://fellowshipofminds.files.wordpre ... am-pen.jpg
https://fellowshipofminds.files.wordpre ... m-pen1.jpg
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