US General Election Thread III: Clinton vs. Trump

[Icamera]

Indiana seems like a stretch, but... Utah? And Montana?

What's your reasoning there?

Utah will split because of Johnson and the CIA guy.

Hmm. I'm not yet convinced that McMullin will be enough of a factor in Utah, but I'm not convinced that it's implausible, either.

I'm guessing that you've got a similar spoiler result in mind for Montana, but more from Johnson than McMullin, right?

[New Jerzylvania]

Its not so much that I doubt Mormon country could flip. Its that going by the numbers, it would be a hell of an odd situation where all of the others I listed flipped and SC didn't, since SC looks like the next to flip in the nowcast.

Well, I see South Carolina as the more blue-collar and Republican version of North Carolina, so, at least for now, I don't think Clinton will get many votes in SC. Montana, did however, flip to blue for Clinton's husband in 1992, and Montana is one of the states that libertarians usually do well in.

I believe the African American population in SC is in the 40-50 percentile range. Hillary is winning them 93-6 in one of the latest nationwide polls. Hello South Carolina!

[PaNTuXIa]

Utah will split because of Johnson and the CIA guy.

Hmm. I'm not yet convinced that McMullin will be enough of a factor in Utah, but I'm not convinced that it's implausible, either.

I'm guessing that you've got a similar spoiler result in mind for Montana, but more from Johnson than McMullin, right?

Yeah. I think Montana had around two percent of their population vote Johnson in 2012.

[Icamera]

If fivethirtyeight is anything to go by, I doubt that Montana, Utah, Missouri, and Indiana will flip and South Carolina won't.

They have no stats on the McMullin candidacy yet. Likely effect in Utah, maybe even NV and AZ which have significant Morman populations. MT is probably too red for it to matter, but it's an outside bc there's a bunch of Mormans there too. Clinton just won't get enough votes to hold up her end there. It may now have become Johnson's best shot.

McMullin could affect things in Utah, where almost everyone is Mormon, but IIRC, Mormons have an abysmal voter turnout rate. If that's true, it'll definitely diminish the chances of his campaign stealing very much of Trump's base in Nevada or Arizona.

[PaNTuXIa]

They have no stats on the McMullin candidacy yet. Likely effect in Utah, maybe even NV and AZ which have significant Morman populations. MT is probably too red for it to matter, but it's an outside bc there's a bunch of Mormans there too. Clinton just won't get enough votes to hold up her end there. It may now have become Johnson's best shot.

McMullin could affect things in Utah, where almost everyone is Mormon, but IIRC, Mormons have an abysmal voter turnout rate. If that's true, it'll definitely diminish the chances of his campaign stealing very much of Trump's base in Nevada or Arizona.

Still, Johnson polled at 16 percent today.

[Corrian]

Dude, RIGHT as we're supposed to be in South Lake Tahoe of all times, ON OUR WAY DRIVING TO SACRAMENTO FOR A TRIP (taking the long way on purpose), Obama is supposed to be doing an event in Lake Tahoe. OF ALL COINCIDENCES.

[New Jerzylvania]

They have no stats on the McMullin candidacy yet. Likely effect in Utah, maybe even NV and AZ which have significant Morman populations. MT is probably too red for it to matter, but it's an outside bc there's a bunch of Mormans there too. Clinton just won't get enough votes to hold up her end there. It may now have become Johnson's best shot.

McMullin could affect things in Utah, where almost everyone is Mormon, but IIRC, Mormons have an abysmal voter turnout rate. If that's true, it'll definitely diminish the chances of his campaign stealing very much of Trump's base in Nevada or Arizona.

OTOH, Trump is quite a motivational speaker ...as in reverse.

[Farnhamia]

who cares, he would be a terrible president.

That's not what I asked, and it was not at all what I was even wanting to discuss. Ass.

*** Warned for flaming. ***

[Hurdergaryp]

McMullin could affect things in Utah, where almost everyone is Mormon, but IIRC, Mormons have an abysmal voter turnout rate. If that's true, it'll definitely diminish the chances of his campaign stealing very much of Trump's base in Nevada or Arizona.

OTOH, Trump is quite a motivational speaker ...as in reverse.

Wouldn't that make him a demotivational speaker?

[New Jerzylvania]

McMullin could affect things in Utah, where almost everyone is Mormon, but IIRC, Mormons have an abysmal voter turnout rate. If that's true, it'll definitely diminish the chances of his campaign stealing very much of Trump's base in Nevada or Arizona.

Still, Johnson polled at 16 percent today.

Really? Nationwide? or where? Please cite the poll, I'd like to know!

[New Jerzylvania]

OTOH, Trump is quite a motivational speaker ...as in reverse.

Wouldn't that make him a [i]demotivational]/i] speaker?

Yeah.

[PaNTuXIa]

Still, Johnson polled at 16 percent today.

Really? Nationwide? or where? Please cite the poll, I'd like to know!

Oh no, just in Utah. If he got above 15%, the Libertarians Discussion Thread would probably be maxed out.
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/8656 ... tml?pg=all

[Maurepas]

So Donald Trump may or may not have early onset dementia, and Hillary Clinton has a handler carrying seizure medication for her and has a tendency to fall. Is... Is Johnson at least healthy?

Eh, arguably one of our best presidents was a paralyzed polio survivor. I think we'll be fine with the occasional fall or if she has the unfortunate seizure.

Dementia might be a little more worrisome, but it pales in comparison to the policy and rhetoric reasons he'd be a terrible president.

Gary Johnson is indeed pretty fit, he climbs mountains and stuff, but it's policy and party rhetoric that prevent my support of him.

[Farnhamia]

Well, I see South Carolina as the more blue-collar and Republican version of North Carolina, so, at least for now, I don't think Clinton will get many votes in SC. Montana, did however, flip to blue for Clinton's husband in 1992, and Montana is one of the states that libertarians usually do well in.

I believe the African American population in SC is in the 40-50 percentile range. Hillary is winning them 93-6 in one of the latest nationwide polls. Hello South Carolina!

South Carolina's black population is 28%, behind Mississippi (37%), Louisiana (32%), Georgia (31%) and Maryland (29%). http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/08/opini ... -belt.html

[Philjia]

So Donald Trump may or may not have early onset dementia, and Hillary Clinton has a handler carrying seizure medication for her and has a tendency to fall. Is... Is Johnson at least healthy?

Eh, arguably one of our best presidents was a paralyzed polio survivor.

And he managed to have an affair with his secretary while confined to his wheelchair.

[Corrian]

Gary Johnson and his mountain climbing and such is pretty impressive. I wish I was that fit for mountain climbing and whatever else he does.

[Maurepas]

Eh, arguably one of our best presidents was a paralyzed polio survivor.

And he managed to have an affair with his secretary while confined to his wheelchair.

Presidential material if I've ever heard it,

[Liriena]

Gosh, that now-cast keeps making my day. :3

[Ashmoria]

He was probably right about ted cruz. God willing we will never find out for sure.

Like Ted Cruz or not, unlike Trump he actually debates and has policy substance to his platform. Was part of the debate club in his youth. All Trump ever does is wing it. That is the primary reason why he is losing by so much, it is because he is the "emperor with no clothes."

Republicans had the opportunity to nominate perhaps the greatest constitutional conservative in a generation, someone who might've been as great as Reagan in the long run. Instead we got a charlatan like Trump who says and does stupid stuff. An utter disgrace.

sure but he is also an utterly unlikeable asshole.

[Corrian]

Geez, and the Polls Only went up 3% since last I checked, and Arizona and Georgia are both BLUE on there? Holy crap. I saw Arizona blue, then it flipped back, now it is blue again.

[Maurepas]

I believe the African American population in SC is in the 40-50 percentile range. Hillary is winning them 93-6 in one of the latest nationwide polls. Hello South Carolina!

South Carolina's black population is 28%, behind Mississippi (37%), Louisiana (32%), Georgia (31%) and Maryland (29%). http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/08/opini ... -belt.html

If Trump has alienated enough white people into voting for anyone other than him, and we can get some good black turnout, I'm kind of hopeful Mississippi, Georgia, and/or Louisiana could turn.

I mean, it's an extreme longshot by any stretch of the imagination, but that's still better than the dead certainty it usually is, lol.

[Neutraligon]

South Carolina's black population is 28%, behind Mississippi (37%), Louisiana (32%), Georgia (31%) and Maryland (29%). http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/08/opini ... -belt.html

If Trump has alienated enough white people into voting for anyone other than him, and we can get some good black turnout, I'm kind of hopeful Mississippi, Georgia, and/or Louisiana could turn.

I mean, it's an extreme longshot by any stretch of the imagination, but that's still better than the dead certainty it usually is, lol.

I sm looking forward to what voter turnout will really be.

[Farnhamia]

Gosh, that now-cast keeps making my day. :3

Shouldn't their noses stick over the top, like in "Kilroy Was Here" graffiti?

[Liriena]

Gosh, that now-cast keeps making my day. :3

Shouldn't their noses stick over the top, like in "Kilroy Was Here" graffiti?

[Ashmoria]

This is the first I've heard of Clinton having epilepsy.

According to Snopes, the claim is false. http://www.snopes.com/hillary-clinton-seizure-video/

That's not the "evidence" to which I was referring. This would be more relevant:
https://fellowshipofminds.files.wordpre ... am-pen.jpg
https://fellowshipofminds.files.wordpre ... m-pen1.jpg

and you think the ss man would hold it in his hand at all times?

seems a little unlikely to me.