Turkey thread: now stuffed with more authoritarianism!

[Novus America]

Nova Ottoman, with capital of Ankara, greatest fear of Byzantine revivalists

I need to sit down and think about this. If only there were some manner of thematically appropriate furniture on which to do so...

You can find such furniture in Erdogan's hideous illegal palace.

[New Chalcedon]

I need to sit down and think about this. If only there were some manner of thematically appropriate furniture on which to do so...

You can find such furniture in Erdogan's hideous illegal palace.

Do not speak such of the sublime and glorious residence of His Magnificence, Sultan Reccep I of the House of Erdogan!

[Novus America]

Because it was a fake coup, masterminded by Erdogan all along. He's using it as an excuse to expand his own power.

Then there'd be no point in actually tailing the jet.

But why did they not shoot his jet down? Were they just stupid?

So much about this coup makes no sense.

[Baltenstein]

I need to sit down and think about this. If only there were some manner of thematically appropriate furniture on which to do so...

You can find such furniture in Erdogan's hideous illegal palace.

[Milizewe]

Then there'd be no point in actually tailing the jet.

But why did they not shoot his jet down? Were they just stupid?

So much about this coup makes no sense.

Maybe they didn't want to provoke too much of a reaction?

[Free Missouri]

But why did they not shoot his jet down? Were they just stupid?

So much about this coup makes no sense.

Maybe they didn't want to provoke too much of a reaction?

Or Maybe they just wanted to tail it to try and sell the coup for Erdogan.

it was staged.

[Imperializt Russia]

Then there'd be no point in actually tailing the jet.

But why did they not shoot his jet down? Were they just stupid?

So much about this coup makes no sense.

Erdogan was able to persuade the people and the imams to take to the streets and stand up to tanks and infantry. Hundreds died for it.

I don't think killing Erdogan would have galvanised the public to the coup at all.

[Spirit of Hope]

Then there'd be no point in actually tailing the jet.

But why did they not shoot his jet down? Were they just stupid?

So much about this coup makes no sense.

Because killing the President of Turkey would make him a martyr of resistance to the coup, potentially rallying more support to the anti coup movement?

This also ignores the potential international reaction to shooting down the President while in the air, which could dramatically undermine the coup.

Plus the passenger jet the president was on had an escort of two F-16's. Which were probably not sitting still as they and the presidential transport were targeted, and instead engaging the coup's jets. Firing on the president would have meant getting fired on themselves, which can make anyone hesitate.

Meanwhile keeping him in the air does keep the president from effectively communicating with his supporters, allies, and the international community. Would be better to capture him of course, but that goes out the window once he is on a plane in the air.

[Novus America]

But why did they not shoot his jet down? Were they just stupid?

So much about this coup makes no sense.

Maybe they didn't want to provoke too much of a reaction?

Then why launch a coup at all? A coup will provoke a reaction by default.

The purpose of a coup is to eliminate the government. Had they shot down his plane it certainly would have gone better. (Friday evening was as stupid time to launch it too, that is when people are out at the Mosques.

[Free Missouri]

Maybe they didn't want to provoke too much of a reaction?

Then why launch a coup at all? A coup will provoke a reaction by default.

The purpose of a coup is to eliminate the government. Had they shot down his plane it certainly would have gone better. (Friday evening was as stupid time to launch it too, that is when people are out at the Mosques.

That's the point.

Erdogan staged the coup to provoke a reaction among his people in his support so he now has the political capital he needs to purge his enemies.

[Imperializt Russia]

Maybe they didn't want to provoke too much of a reaction?

Then why launch a coup at all? A coup will provoke a reaction by default.

The purpose of a coup is to eliminate the government. Had they shot down his plane it certainly would have gone better. (Friday evening was as stupid time to launch it too, that is when people are out at the Mosques.

When all you have are factions of the military to work with, galvanising loyalist militias, paramilitaries, military and security forces - as well as the people themselves - is bad.

If everyone's in prayer on Friday night, they're not on the streets where the tanks are. The logic was sound, until Erdogan whipped up the imams.

[Spirit of Hope]

Maybe they didn't want to provoke too much of a reaction?

Then why launch a coup at all? A coup will provoke a reaction by default.

The purpose of a coup is to eliminate the government. Had they shot down his plane it certainly would have gone better. (Friday evening was as stupid time to launch it too, that is when people are out at the Mosques.

Shooting down the jet would have elicited a near instantaneous condemnation from every major democratic nation in the world, and a bunch of undemocratic ones as well.

When the people who are protesting you hear this condemnation they will be emboldened, after all you are loosing legitimacy. Those who don't support you will loose faith, even if you succeed what could be the consequences for them and the nation? If you fail, they are now tied to a presidential assassination.

Plus shooting down the jet makes Erdogan a martyr to the anti coup movement, likely emboldening the protesters in the street.

Much better to attempt to keep Erdogan out of play by keeping his jet in the air than risk what could happen on his death.

[Trotskylvania]

But why did they not shoot his jet down? Were they just stupid?

So much about this coup makes no sense.

Because killing the President of Turkey would make him a martyr of resistance to the coup, potentially rallying more support to the anti coup movement?

This also ignores the potential international reaction to shooting down the President while in the air, which could dramatically undermine the coup.

Plus the passenger jet the president was on had an escort of two F-16's. Which were probably not sitting still as they and the presidential transport were targeted, and instead engaging the coup's jets. Firing on the president would have meant getting fired on themselves, which can make anyone hesitate.

Meanwhile keeping him in the air does keep the president from effectively communicating with his supporters, allies, and the international community. Would be better to capture him of course, but that goes out the window once he is on a plane in the air.

Rule 1 of coups is to neutralize the head of state/government in the first move. You fail to do that, you're not going to succeed. No half-measures.

[Imperializt Russia]

Also, what the fuck might NATO decide to do if the president of a NATO nuclear-sharing state was assassinated by his own military, while also sharing a border with the world's current go-to unstable conflict zone.

[Novus America]

Then why launch a coup at all? A coup will provoke a reaction by default.

The purpose of a coup is to eliminate the government. Had they shot down his plane it certainly would have gone better. (Friday evening was as stupid time to launch it too, that is when people are out at the Mosques.

When all you have are factions of the military to work with, galvanising loyalist militias, paramilitaries, military and security forces - as well as the people themselves - is bad.

If everyone's in prayer on Friday night, they're not on the streets where the tanks are. The logic was sound, until Erdogan whipped up the imams.

Well the coup was a in a bad situation anyway. But in a coup you go big or fail. It is an all or nothing thing.

And it was obvious Erdogan was going to whip up the Imams. So take him out. And yes when the are in the Mosques they are not in the street, but are awake, fired up, and ready to put out into the streets at anytime. You should launch a coup at 2 in the morning or something.

[Novus America]

Then why launch a coup at all? A coup will provoke a reaction by default.

The purpose of a coup is to eliminate the government. Had they shot down his plane it certainly would have gone better. (Friday evening was as stupid time to launch it too, that is when people are out at the Mosques.

Shooting down the jet would have elicited a near instantaneous condemnation from every major democratic nation in the world, and a bunch of undemocratic ones as well.

When the people who are protesting you hear this condemnation they will be emboldened, after all you are loosing legitimacy. Those who don't support you will loose faith, even if you succeed what could be the consequences for them and the nation? If you fail, they are now tied to a presidential assassination.

Plus shooting down the jet makes Erdogan a martyr to the anti coup movement, likely emboldening the protesters in the street.

Much better to attempt to keep Erdogan out of play by keeping his jet in the air than risk what could happen on his death.

Yes it would be preferable to capture him alive, but they did not put him out of play at all.

Any coup will be condemned but most people in the west would not be sad to see Erdogan go.

And if you fail you are going to be treated as a traitor no matter what. You go big or go to jail. A coup is an all or nothing gamble.

[Spirit of Hope]

Because killing the President of Turkey would make him a martyr of resistance to the coup, potentially rallying more support to the anti coup movement?

This also ignores the potential international reaction to shooting down the President while in the air, which could dramatically undermine the coup.

Plus the passenger jet the president was on had an escort of two F-16's. Which were probably not sitting still as they and the presidential transport were targeted, and instead engaging the coup's jets. Firing on the president would have meant getting fired on themselves, which can make anyone hesitate.

Meanwhile keeping him in the air does keep the president from effectively communicating with his supporters, allies, and the international community. Would be better to capture him of course, but that goes out the window once he is on a plane in the air.

Rule 1 of coups is to neutralize the head of state/government in the first move. You fail to do that, you're not going to succeed. No half-measures.

They failed to effectively eliminate or contain him the moment he got onto the jet and took off. From then on it was all bad options. Shooting the jet down would be incredibly public, no way of hiding it for more than a few hours. After that you have basically every NATO and EU member nation condemning you, you have galvanized all of the non-coup supporting forces, and made a martyr of the president for the protesters to gather around.

Not shooting down the jet allows Erdogan to continue to speak out, and coordinate opposition.

However by attacking the jet as they did they managed to keep Erdogan partially out of play. He couldn't show up at protest points in person, couldn't personally come on TV, had limited communication avenues, and otherwise couldn't operate at peak efficiency.

You have two bad options, however killing the President sets you up for far worse situations even if it were to marginally increase you success chances. And it is debatable weather killing him would have increased their chance of success.

The coup tried to do the proper thing and capture/kill Erdogan less publicly with soldiers raiding the location he had been at. However they did not arrive in time, and failed to prevent his escape.

[Novus America]

But why did they not shoot his jet down? Were they just stupid?

So much about this coup makes no sense.

Erdogan was able to persuade the people and the imams to take to the streets and stand up to tanks and infantry. Hundreds died for it.

I don't think killing Erdogan would have galvanised the public to the coup at all.

If you are not even going to take out the government why coup at all? What is the point?

[Imperializt Russia]

Erdogan was able to persuade the people and the imams to take to the streets and stand up to tanks and infantry. Hundreds died for it.

I don't think killing Erdogan would have galvanised the public to the coup at all.

If you are not even going to take out the government why coup at all? What is the point?

They felt him being away, and kept away, would prevent him for organising military and paramilitary responses or put out official broadcasts. With key government buildings under control, Erdogan would either flee (as early reports continually suggested he had), or could be brought in later, after there is no state for him to control and organise responses for.

They were correct.
He was out of the picture, he was "neutralised".
They just underestimated the resources he had - facetiming Imams on a jet.

[Novus America]

Rule 1 of coups is to neutralize the head of state/government in the first move. You fail to do that, you're not going to succeed. No half-measures.

They failed to effectively eliminate or contain him the moment he got onto the jet and took off. From then on it was all bad options. Shooting the jet down would be incredibly public, no way of hiding it for more than a few hours. After that you have basically every NATO and EU member nation condemning you, you have galvanized all of the non-coup supporting forces, and made a martyr of the president for the protesters to gather around.

Not shooting down the jet allows Erdogan to continue to speak out, and coordinate opposition.

However by attacking the jet as they did they managed to keep Erdogan partially out of play. He couldn't show up at protest points in person, couldn't personally come on TV, had limited communication avenues, and otherwise couldn't operate at peak efficiency.

You have two bad options, however killing the President sets you up for far worse situations even if it were to marginally increase you success chances. And it is debatable weather killing him would have increased their chance of success.

The coup tried to do the proper thing and capture/kill Erdogan less publicly with soldiers raiding the location he had been at. However they did not arrive in time, and failed to prevent his escape.

Yes, at that point all options are bad. But letting him go is the worst option. They did not attack the jet. They did not take it out of play.

And the killing him found not have made the coup fail worse than it did.

If they were not willing to shoot down his plane they should have just surrendered as soon as it took off. A coup is all or nothing. Being timid does not work.

[Novus America]

If you are not even going to take out the government why coup at all? What is the point?

They felt him being away, and kept away, would prevent him for organising military and paramilitary responses or put out official broadcasts. With key government buildings under control, Erdogan would either flee (as early reports continually suggested he had), or could be brought in later, after there is no state for him to control and organise responses for.

They were correct.
He was out of the picture, he was "neutralised".
They just underestimated the resources he had - facetiming Imams on a jet.

He was not neutralized though. He was quite able to communicate. You have to take out the leaders ability to communicate. When you underestimate you are wrong.

What type of idiot does not realize modern planes have communications?

And F-16s have cannons, you could have just shot some holes in the wing to force it down without neccesarily killing him.

[Spirit of Hope]

Shooting down the jet would have elicited a near instantaneous condemnation from every major democratic nation in the world, and a bunch of undemocratic ones as well.

When the people who are protesting you hear this condemnation they will be emboldened, after all you are loosing legitimacy. Those who don't support you will loose faith, even if you succeed what could be the consequences for them and the nation? If you fail, they are now tied to a presidential assassination.

Plus shooting down the jet makes Erdogan a martyr to the anti coup movement, likely emboldening the protesters in the street.

Much better to attempt to keep Erdogan out of play by keeping his jet in the air than risk what could happen on his death.

Yes it would be preferable to capture him alive, but they did not put him out of play at all.

Erdogan on a plane has far less options than Erdogan on the ground. No live TV addresses, not visiting the crowds, limited comunication ability, limited advisers, reduced equipment to coordinate and view events, etc.

Any coup will be condemned but most people in the west would not be sad to see Erdogan go.

Killing in such a public manner would kill the coup. There is no way they could hide his death if they shot the transport down, which means the EU and NATO are almost immediately going to be talking about it, and condemning it. How might NATO, which has heavily armed forces in Turkey, respond to the death of a head of state? Just maybe President Obama authorizes US forces to take action against the coup. If they had killed him in a shoot out at the beginning of the coup it could have been days before that became evident.

Shooting down a jet to kill the president is also a couple steps past, arresting him or allowing him to flee to another country.

And if you fail you are going to be treated as a traitor no matter what. You go big or go to jail. A coup is an all or nothing gamble.

Accept killing the president may just make people more angry at you, he is a public figure well liked by a significant portion of the population. Doing it so dramatically only makes everything worse. You are making a very public statement to the effect off "this is how far we are willing to go." Which means you better be able and willing to back it up on the ground, because people are certainly going to flock to the streets to protest that shoot down.

With limited resources all you achieve in a shoot down is to further alienate any allies and the international community, embolden opposition, and potentially demoralize your own side. For the small gain of a dead enemy leader, who will be replaced and probably sin't doing much direct control of efforts to stop your coup.

They felt him being away, and kept away, would prevent him for organising military and paramilitary responses or put out official broadcasts. With key government buildings under control, Erdogan would either flee (as early reports continually suggested he had), or could be brought in later, after there is no state for him to control and organise responses for.

They were correct.
He was out of the picture, he was "neutralised".
They just underestimated the resources he had - facetiming Imams on a jet.

He was not neutralized though. He was quite able to communicate. You have to take out the leaders ability to communicate. When you underestimate you are wrong.

What type of idiot does not realize modern planes have communications?

And F-16s have cannons, you could have just shot some holes in the wing to force it down without neccesarily killing him.

His communication on a plane is severely limited as compared to basically anywhere else.

Shooting the wings would just bring the plane down and kill Erdogan, and also cause your jets to get shot down by the enemy escort. Good job, they probably would get shoot down before they got in cannon range honestly.

[Imperializt Russia]

They weren't playing BF4. You don't think "fuck it, I'll just shoot the wing a bit", especially since that could have brought the aircraft down anyway.

Erdogan could probably have persuaded US forces in Turkey to mobilise off that. In any case, the jet had fighter escorts, presumably hence why they didn't open fire.

[Llamalandia]

Feel like erdogan was quick to try to minimize the coup. Sure, not the best coup attempt, but this went far enough to disrupt anti isis operations run at encerlic (spelling) airbase. Not sure Turkish military leadership would be any better than erdogan unfortunately.
Curious about the international legality of the coup as well. They killed police which seem like they would be civilian targets, on the other hand they are also armed and support the regime so maybe they were fair game. Not sure.
Clearly though turkey has issues it needs to work on.

[Mefpan]

Feel like erdogan was quick to try to minimize the coup. Sure, not the best coup attempt, but this went far enough to disrupt anti isis operations run at encerlic (spelling) airbase. Not sure Turkish military leadership would be any better than erdogan unfortunately.
Curious about the international legality of the coup as well. They killed police which seem like they would be civilian targets, on the other hand they are also armed and support the regime so maybe they were fair game. Not sure.
Clearly though turkey has issues it needs to work on.

Erdogan has so far proven to be the biggest disruption for operations against Daesh.