Turkey thread: now stuffed with more authoritarianism!

[Vassenor]

But they'd need the US Air Force airmen who know how to maintain them and who can access the bunkers where they're stored, plus the B61s that are in Turkey are unguided tactical weapons that you'd have to deliver by aircraft in order to not die, and it'd be very hard to use them in an offensive situation and not destroy the pilot and the aircraft.

Even if the seized them (Erdogan is not that insane). They are just paperweights without the codes to arm them. And I seriously doubt the codes are kept on location in Turkey.

Probably with NATO command in Brussels.

More likely in the Pentagon since they're US bombs.

[G-Tech Corporation]

So, speculation the Edry staged the whole affair as a pretext to purge opposition seems to be mounting- what say you NSG?

[Flauc]

I think that it can't be true. Governments don't kill their own people, fire a couple generals and blow up their own parliament building. They also don't risk dropping the value of lira (which happened).

[Yugo-Austria]

Seems like this whole thing was ill-prepared. Military coups in Turkey aren't exactly rare, but this one was just sour.

[Frank Zipper]

So, speculation the Edry staged the whole affair as a pretext to purge opposition seems to be mounting- what say you NSG?

I think all failed coups are followed by a purge.

[The Two Jerseys]

I think that it can't be true. Governments don't kill their own people, fire a couple generals and blow up their own parliament building. They also don't risk dropping the value of lira (which happened).

You were saying?

[G-Tech Corporation]

So, speculation the Edry staged the whole affair as a pretext to purge opposition seems to be mounting- what say you NSG?

I think all failed coups are followed by a purge.

Oh, certainly. But the question is whether the incompetence of this coup was deliberate.

[Frank Zipper]

I think all failed coups are followed by a purge.

Oh, certainly. But the question is whether the incompetence of this coup was deliberate.

Not all of it was incompetent. They failed to secure effective control of the media, but they did manage to detain some pretty senior military and intelligence figures who would have opposed them. If they had managed to get hold of Erdogan it would have been a different story.

[Guyanes]

If only the military succeeded then the criminal Erdogan would be to face justice. He is a dictator and should be overthrown! He supports ISIS underhandedly and is trying to make Turkey into an Islamic republic. He lists opposition journalists and judges and prosecutors as terrorists. What is so sad is that Erdogan will utilise this (if it was not staged) to push Turkey to his agenda and become more like a Turkish Hitler.

[Guyanes]

I think that it can't be true. Governments don't kill their own people, fire a couple generals and blow up their own parliament building. They also don't risk dropping the value of lira (which happened).

You were saying?

Exactly. Erdogan is doing all of the things Hitler has done before WWII. Now he just needs to invade another country (Syria) and pretend they are attacking Turkey.... He already has controlled the media, the legal and political structures.

[Viuskore]

Erdogan definitely did this on purpose. He is now trying to provoke NATO.

[Yugo-Austria]

You were saying?

Exactly. Erdogan is doing all of the things Hitler has done before WWII. Now he just needs to invade another country (Syria) and pretend they are attacking Turkey.... He already has controlled the media, the legal and political structures.

Except this time the "Nazi Germany" isn't a superpower.

[Olerand]

So, speculation the Edry staged the whole affair as a pretext to purge opposition seems to be mounting- what say you NSG?

I highly doubt it. He will benefit immensely, but after having read an interview in Le Monde with an editor from Hurriyet (secular, left-wing, anti-Erdogan newspaper), I don't believe he has done it. If he was behind it, he could have had them arrested moments after the event began, and not let it drag on for so long and weaken him politically, and still have the same results on public opinion. He was also visibly shaken when he landed in the airport, this caught him by surprise.

I am increasingly led to believe that this was in fact a last ditch attempt by the Gulen movement in the army to oust Erdogan before he could purge them. Now, he will purge them and everyone else too.

[Valaran]

So, speculation the Edry staged the whole affair as a pretext to purge opposition seems to be mounting- what say you NSG?

I'm rather sceptical of such a view.

Erdogan has certainly manufactured security crises, but usually prefers an outside enemy, rather than an internal one (so better to unify the voting bloc AKP draws its support from), and he already has several legitimate security crises as it is - no need for a phoney new one. Its also rather neat to explain away incompetence as deliberate, but this would bely the simple prevalence of military incompetence.

Circumstance aside, its rather difficult to seriously say anything points towards a deliberate event (and anything that does possibly suggest this can also suggest other explanations with equal or greater support). Moreover, the actions and reactions during the coup attempt don't appear as anything less than genuine - the semi-paralysis, the bloodshed and the incompetence seem rather difficult to act out, and it would seem needlessly complicated and rather risky to pit armed and frightened soldiers against an angry crowds in several areas in the hopes that things pan out the way you want them too. Ditto for helicopters firing on police stations and the Assembly building, and F-16s firing on helicopters.

I'm also personally of the view that what caused such an attempt isn't actually that important in the grand scheme of things - it either shows that Erdogan is continually afraid of losing his grip and thinks needs to shore up his position with extreme measures, or that he actually does need to shore up his position. Both lead to the same result of a fearful, divided and distracted nation, and wide ranging purges borne from paranoia. And both also point to the fact that the military as a whole is not espcially in favour of a coup - either a tiny section was (no longer), or no section was. In both cases, it is unlikely to remain a threat (if indeed it ever was a threat). Orchestrating a security crisis is also not really a dangerous new development for him anyway - as noted, he's done it before.

[Milizewe]

I am increasingly led to believe that this was in fact a last ditch attempt by the Gulen movement in the army to oust Erdogan before he could purge them. Now, he will purge them and everyone else too.

What did the Gulen movement have to gain from a coup?

[Olerand]

I am increasingly led to believe that this was in fact a last ditch attempt by the Gulen movement in the army to oust Erdogan before he could purge them. Now, he will purge them and everyone else too.

What did the Gulen movement have to gain from a coup?

To gain? Little. But if they did nothing, they had everything to lose. Erdogan was already on the rampage through their ranks, and they were about to be purged as well.

[Gauthier]

You were saying?

Exactly. Erdogan is doing all of the things Hitler has done before WWII. Now he just needs to invade another country (Syria) and pretend they are attacking Turkey.... He already has controlled the media, the legal and political structures.

Maybe if Erdogan starts making Kurds wear badges in public it'll be more plausible.

[Eol Sha]

What did the Gulen movement have to gain from a coup?

To gain? Little. But if they did nothing, they had everything to lose. Erdogan was already on the rampage through their ranks, and they were about to be purged as well.

You'd think a few well placed bullets would be a more effective option than a high-risk coup.

[Olerand]

To gain? Little. But if they did nothing, they had everything to lose. Erdogan was already on the rampage through their ranks, and they were about to be purged as well.

You'd think a few well placed bullets would be a more effective option than a high-risk coup.

They can't possibly assassinate him. The AKP has purged the apparatus of State, from the functionaries, to the judiciary, through the police and much of the army. Assassinating him means the AKP-State would still exist and would purge them anyway.

[Eol Sha]

You'd think a few well placed bullets would be a more effective option than a high-risk coup.

They can't possibly assassinate him. The AKP has purged the apparatus of State, from the functionaries, to the judiciary, through the police and much of the army. Assassinating him means the AKP-State would still exist and would purge them anyway.

Maybe, but assassinating him removes their most powerful enemy.

[Olerand]

They can't possibly assassinate him. The AKP has purged the apparatus of State, from the functionaries, to the judiciary, through the police and much of the army. Assassinating him means the AKP-State would still exist and would purge them anyway.

Maybe, but assassinating him removes their most powerful enemy.

To what end? Still being purged?

[Eol Sha]

Maybe, but assassinating him removes their most powerful enemy.

To what end? Still being purged?

To the end of Erdogan not being in control. Could have been better to roll the dice on the next man who doesn't have Erdogan's popularity.

[Olerand]

To what end? Still being purged?

To the end of Erdogan not being in control. Could have been better to roll the dice on the next man who doesn't have Erdogan's popularity.

So still be purged. The AKP wasn't going to change, the ideology of Erdogan is the ideology of the AKP. He has even purged those in the party who were not sufficiently loyal or showed signs of independence, like Davutoglu.

[Baltenstein]

To gain? Little. But if they did nothing, they had everything to lose. Erdogan was already on the rampage through their ranks, and they were about to be purged as well.

You'd think a few well placed bullets would be a more effective option than a high-risk coup.

It would have probably been more effective to combine an assassination with the coup.

[Imperializt Russia]

There are american nuclear weapons in Turkey, so they could sieze them if Erdy went very crazy.

But they'd need the US Air Force airmen who know how to maintain them and who can access the bunkers where they're stored, plus the B61s that are in Turkey are unguided tactical weapons that you'd have to deliver by aircraft in order to not die, and it'd be very hard to use them in an offensive situation and not destroy the pilot and the aircraft.

Err, no, or B-61 would never have become the one remaining NATO forward-deployed tactical weapon (aside from France's tactical arms).

The newer mods of B-61 are basically long-range glide bombs. They have variable yields, can be deployed in a myriad of ways and presumably have time-delay detonation amongst its detonation modes.

Exactly. Erdogan is doing all of the things Hitler has done before WWII. Now he just needs to invade another country (Syria) and pretend they are attacking Turkey.... He already has controlled the media, the legal and political structures.

Except this time the "Nazi Germany" isn't a superpower.

What difference does it make?

The situation is directly comparable regardless.