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Novus America
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Postby Novus America » Sat Jul 16, 2016 3:54 pm

Western Weyard wrote:Apparently, there are now protests in front of Gulen's house in the US.

Is it just me, or is Erdogan running a very dangerous game here?
Telling Germany to fuck off over the genocide resolution is one thing, but trying to blackmail and influence the US in this manner is a whole new ballgame.


Erdogan is always playing a dangerous game. Erdogan sucks at dilplomacy.

However that is a sad looking protest. I doubt anyone in the US will give a shit. And I doubt Erdogan has many supporters in the US.
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Chernorossiya
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Postby Chernorossiya » Sat Jul 16, 2016 3:55 pm

Liriena wrote:
Chernorossiya wrote:Nah, BOMB the HELL outta Erdogan.

International politics are not your strong suit, are they?

Taking the fact that the U.S.A. gets away with almost everything, this could be an option.
Sadly, because of many new factors, its not possible.
I WISH it was.

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Trotskylvania
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Postby Trotskylvania » Sat Jul 16, 2016 3:56 pm

Foreign Policy has an excellent article on the coup, specifically regarding the reasons and the outcome

Rule No. 2 in planning a successful military coup is that any mobile forces that are not part of the plot — and that certainly includes any fighter jet squadrons — must be immobilized or too remote to intervene. (Which is why Saudi army units, for example, are based far from the capital.) But the Turkish coup plotters failed to ensure these loyal tanks, helicopters, and jets were rendered inert, so instead of being reinforced as events unfolded, the putschists were increasingly opposed. But perhaps that scarcely mattered because they had already violated Rule No. 1, which is to seize the head of the government before doing anything else, or at least to kill him...

Aspiring journalists; this is how you make your point clearly and quickly in the first paragraph.

We really shouldn't be surprised about the outcome. This was really poorly executed.
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Senkaku
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Corrupt Dictatorship

Postby Senkaku » Sat Jul 16, 2016 3:57 pm

Novus America wrote:
Western Weyard wrote:Apparently, there are now protests in front of Gulen's house in the US.

Is it just me, or is Erdogan running a very dangerous game here?
Telling Germany to fuck off over the genocide resolution is one thing, but trying to blackmail and influence the US in this manner is a whole new ballgame.


Erdogan is always playing a dangerous game. Erdogan sucks at dilplomacy.

However that is a sad looking protest. I doubt anyone in the US will give a shit. And I doubt Erdogan has many supporters in the US.

Unfortunately, I'm more than a little concerned that Obama will fold on Gulen in return for continued normal operations at Incirlik. Hopefully we tell Erdogan to go fuck himself and make reforms to win back the confidence of the Turkish people or whatever.
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Valaran
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Postby Valaran » Sat Jul 16, 2016 3:58 pm

Trotskylvania wrote:Foreign Policy has an excellent article on the coup, specifically regarding the reasons and the outcome

We really shouldn't be surprised about the outcome. This was really poorly executed.



Foreign Policy have been pretty stellar in how fast they got good analysis out on this. I was reading their articles as it unfolded.
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The East Marches
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Postby The East Marches » Sat Jul 16, 2016 3:59 pm

Valaran wrote:
Trotskylvania wrote:Foreign Policy has an excellent article on the coup, specifically regarding the reasons and the outcome

We really shouldn't be surprised about the outcome. This was really poorly executed.



Foreign Policy have been pretty stellar in how fast they got good analysis out on this. I was reading their articles as it unfolded.


Stratfor was on the ball too. They did a great job.
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Chernorossiya
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Postby Chernorossiya » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:00 pm

Erdogan should be thrown over as he's funding ISIS.

If a world power is not funding ISIS, then HOW the hell are terrorist attacks
NON
STOP!?


Image
Last edited by Farnhamia on Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:04 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Valaran
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Postby Valaran » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:00 pm

The East Marches wrote:
Valaran wrote:

Foreign Policy have been pretty stellar in how fast they got good analysis out on this. I was reading their articles as it unfolded.


Stratfor was on the ball too. They did a great job.



ooh I'll check them out - thanks!
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The East Marches
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Postby The East Marches » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:02 pm

Valaran wrote:
The East Marches wrote:
Stratfor was on the ball too. They did a great job.



ooh I'll check them out - thanks!


They are a pay to subscribe website. However, they are 110% the best source for geo-political stuff or (in my case) business news. I think you can get demo articles too.
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Novus America wrote:But yes, I would say the mere existence of Illinois proves this is hell. Chicago the 9th circle.

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Novus America
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Postby Novus America » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:03 pm

Senkaku wrote:
Novus America wrote:
Erdogan is always playing a dangerous game. Erdogan sucks at dilplomacy.

However that is a sad looking protest. I doubt anyone in the US will give a shit. And I doubt Erdogan has many supporters in the US.

Unfortunately, I'm more than a little concerned that Obama will fold on Gulen in return for continued normal operations at Incirlik. Hopefully we tell Erdogan to go fuck himself and make reforms to win back the confidence of the Turkish people or whatever.


True, Obama is the master of folding. I doubt Obama will stand up to Erdogan. In international relations Obama has the back bone of an Amoeba.

Legally though there is only so much Obama can do. He cannot arrest and extradite Gulen without due process and evidence.

And Gulen is not a Kemalist nor secularist. I seriously doubt he was involved.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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Farnhamia
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Postby Farnhamia » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:04 pm

Chernorossiya wrote:Erdogan should be thrown over as he's funding ISIS.

If a world power is not funding ISIS, then HOW the hell are terrorist attacks
NON
STOP!?



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Postby Vassenor » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:04 pm

Novus America wrote:
Senkaku wrote:Unfortunately, I'm more than a little concerned that Obama will fold on Gulen in return for continued normal operations at Incirlik. Hopefully we tell Erdogan to go fuck himself and make reforms to win back the confidence of the Turkish people or whatever.


True, Obama is the master of folding. I doubt Obama will stand up to Erdogan. In international relations Obama has the back bone of an Amoeba.

Legally though there is only so much Obama can do. He cannot arrest and extradite Gulen without due process and evidence.

And Gulen is not a Kemalist nor secularist. I seriously doubt he was involved.


Who has also said he thinks this was a false flag.
Last edited by Vassenor on Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Shazbotdom » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:04 pm

Chernorossiya wrote:Erdogan should be thrown over as he's funding ISIS.

If a world power is not funding ISIS, then HOW the hell are terrorist attacks
NON
STOP!?


(Image)


Dude,

You are not adding anything to the discussion. Why don't you discuss points and stop pic spamming?
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Postby Gauthier » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:05 pm

Senkaku wrote:
Novus America wrote:
Erdogan is always playing a dangerous game. Erdogan sucks at dilplomacy.

However that is a sad looking protest. I doubt anyone in the US will give a shit. And I doubt Erdogan has many supporters in the US.

Unfortunately, I'm more than a little concerned that Obama will fold on Gulen in return for continued normal operations at Incirlik. Hopefully we tell Erdogan to go fuck himself and make reforms to win back the confidence of the Turkish people or whatever.


If he's stupid enough to cut off access for not getting Gulen it'll expose more about Erdogan short of a video of him hugging al'Baghdadi.
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Novus America
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Postby Novus America » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:06 pm

Vassenor wrote:
Novus America wrote:
True, Obama is the master of folding. I doubt Obama will stand up to Erdogan. In international relations Obama has the back bone of an Amoeba.

Legally though there is only so much Obama can do. He cannot arrest and extradite Gulen without due process and evidence.

And Gulen is not a Kemalist nor secularist. I seriously doubt he was involved.


Who has also said he thinks this was a false flag.


Gulen is not a credible source though. But it comes down to the fact that the Kemalists and secularists do not like Gulen.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

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Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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The East Marches
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Postby The East Marches » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:07 pm

Novus America wrote:


Gulen is not a credible source though. But it comes down to the fact that the Kemalists and secularists do not like Gulen.


Fairly certain they had him and a special list assholes to arrest in every coup they do.
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Novus America wrote:But yes, I would say the mere existence of Illinois proves this is hell. Chicago the 9th circle.

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Vassenor
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Postby Vassenor » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:08 pm

Novus America wrote:


Gulen is not a credible source though. But it comes down to the fact that the Kemalists and secularists do not like Gulen.


I'm not saying he's an authoritative source on the matter. I'm just reporting his opinions.
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Novus America
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Postby Novus America » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:10 pm

The East Marches wrote:
Novus America wrote:
Gulen is not a credible source though. But it comes down to the fact that the Kemalists and secularists do not like Gulen.


Fairly certain they had him and a special list assholes to arrest in every coup they do.


Almost certainly any Kemalist coup plotter would want Gulen jailed to. So Guken has nothing to gain and much to lose from a coup. Gulen's organizations still have a lot of assets in Turkey, any coup would likly target Gulen's group too.

Gulen intially SUPPORTED Erdogan against the Kemalists. Gulen is no secularist. But not an extremist to the degree of Erdogan.
Last edited by Novus America on Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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Senkaku
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Postby Senkaku » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:15 pm

Novus America wrote:
Senkaku wrote:Unfortunately, I'm more than a little concerned that Obama will fold on Gulen in return for continued normal operations at Incirlik. Hopefully we tell Erdogan to go fuck himself and make reforms to win back the confidence of the Turkish people or whatever.


True, Obama is the master of folding. I doubt Obama will stand up to Erdogan. In international relations Obama has the back bone of an Amoeba.

I didn't go that far and I don't agree with that, actually.
Legally though there is only so much Obama can do. He cannot arrest and extradite Gulen without due process and evidence.

And Gulen is not a Kemalist nor secularist. I seriously doubt he was involved.

Of course he wasn't involved. Erdogan is just using him as a scapegoat.

Vassenor wrote:
Novus America wrote:
True, Obama is the master of folding. I doubt Obama will stand up to Erdogan. In international relations Obama has the back bone of an Amoeba.

Legally though there is only so much Obama can do. He cannot arrest and extradite Gulen without due process and evidence.

And Gulen is not a Kemalist nor secularist. I seriously doubt he was involved.


Who has also said he thinks this was a false flag.

He said that it was possible it was a false flag, which it most certainly is.
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Novus America
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Postby Novus America » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:20 pm

Senkaku wrote:
Novus America wrote:
True, Obama is the master of folding. I doubt Obama will stand up to Erdogan. In international relations Obama has the back bone of an Amoeba.

I didn't go that far and I don't agree with that, actually.
Legally though there is only so much Obama can do. He cannot arrest and extradite Gulen without due process and evidence.

And Gulen is not a Kemalist nor secularist. I seriously doubt he was involved.

Of course he wasn't involved. Erdogan is just using him as a scapegoat.


He said that it was possible it was a false flag, which it most certainly is.


It might have been a false flag. Certainly Erdogan would not be above such a thing.

The point on Obama though is that it is not solely up to Obama to decide. Even if Obama wants to fold, he cannot extradite Gulen without proof. And there is none.

Kerry just said the Administration will consider the extradition request. But that without proof their is nothing the administration can do.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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Western Weyard
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Postby Western Weyard » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:24 pm

Novus America wrote:It might have been a false flag. Certainly Erdogan would not be above such a thing.

The point on Obama though is that it is not solely up to Obama to decide. Even if Obama wants to fold, he cannot extradite Gulen without proof. And there is none.

Kerry just said the Administration will consider the extradition request. But that without proof their is nothing the administration can do.


I certainly hope so.
Otherwise, Erdogan will continue to ask for free passes and concessions - both from the US and Europe. And given how Merkel already regularly folds like a freakin' lawnchair to every one of his demands...
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Postby Organized States » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:29 pm

So, the Aviationist is reporting that TuAF F-16C Block 50s involved in the Coup (not sure if they were Coup or Loyalist) were being refueled by TuAF KC-135s (which is why there was no stop to their operations over Ankara throughout the day). If they were in the Coup, this represents the fact that the dissent is far more widespread among the ranks than we initially thought, and more arrests are likely forthcoming.

Additionally, it appears that Coup F-16s were launched from Incirilik, which is going to be a major headache for the Obama Administration in the coming days.
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Senkaku
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Postby Senkaku » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:35 pm

Organized States wrote:So, the Aviationist is reporting that TuAF F-16C Block 50s involved in the Coup (not sure if they were Coup or Loyalist) were being refueled by TuAF KC-135s (which is why there was no stop to their operations over Ankara throughout the day). If they were in the Coup, this represents the fact that the dissent is far more widespread among the ranks than we initially thought, and more arrests are likely forthcoming.

Additionally, it appears that Coup F-16s were launched from Incirilik, which is going to be a major headache for the Obama Administration in the coming days.

Incirlik has been shut down for the time being while the Turks try and ensure all their planes are under Erdogan's people's control. I expect he'll soon use it as a chip to try and push the US to hand over Gulen or make other concessions.

Novus America wrote:
The point on Obama though is that it is not solely up to Obama to decide. Even if Obama wants to fold, he cannot extradite Gulen without proof. And there is none.

Kerry just said the Administration will consider the extradition request. But that without proof their is nothing the administration can do.


If they decide that handing him over would be the best course, it would be laughably easy to either fabricate evidence against him, make some dubious connections between dots that may or may not exist, or just believe whatever fabricated or semi-fabricated nonsense the Turks present.
agreed honey. send bees

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Novus America
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Postby Novus America » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:39 pm

Western Weyard wrote:
Novus America wrote:It might have been a false flag. Certainly Erdogan would not be above such a thing.

The point on Obama though is that it is not solely up to Obama to decide. Even if Obama wants to fold, he cannot extradite Gulen without proof. And there is none.

Kerry just said the Administration will consider the extradition request. But that without proof their is nothing the administration can do.


I certainly hope so.
Otherwise, Erdogan will continue to ask for free passes and concessions - both from the US and Europe. And given how Merkel already regularly folds like a freakin' lawnchair to every one of his demands...


I hope so too. Turkey is useful but we need to have limits. We cannot keep bending over backwards for Erdogan. And of course Merkel would fold. It sounds like Obama wants to fold but legally cannot. Gulen no doubt has good lawyers who can tie up any extradition attempt if not kill it altogether.

"US Secretary of State John Kerry said the Obama administration would entertain an extradition request but Turkey would have to prove wrongdoing by Gulen. - See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/world/nt ... Evngi.dpuf
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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Novus America
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Founded: Jun 02, 2014
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Postby Novus America » Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:42 pm

Senkaku wrote:
Organized States wrote:So, the Aviationist is reporting that TuAF F-16C Block 50s involved in the Coup (not sure if they were Coup or Loyalist) were being refueled by TuAF KC-135s (which is why there was no stop to their operations over Ankara throughout the day). If they were in the Coup, this represents the fact that the dissent is far more widespread among the ranks than we initially thought, and more arrests are likely forthcoming.

Additionally, it appears that Coup F-16s were launched from Incirilik, which is going to be a major headache for the Obama Administration in the coming days.

Incirlik has been shut down for the time being while the Turks try and ensure all their planes are under Erdogan's people's control. I expect he'll soon use it as a chip to try and push the US to hand over Gulen or make other concessions.

Novus America wrote:
The point on Obama though is that it is not solely up to Obama to decide. Even if Obama wants to fold, he cannot extradite Gulen without proof. And there is none.

Kerry just said the Administration will consider the extradition request. But that without proof their is nothing the administration can do.


If they decide that handing him over would be the best course, it would be laughably easy to either fabricate evidence against him, make some dubious connections between dots that may or may not exist, or just believe whatever fabricated or semi-fabricated nonsense the Turks present.


Sure Turkey can fabricate evidence. But Gulen has his own lawyers. And in the US legal system you can at the very least always tie things up for years.

Would it not be funny if it was proved Erdogan actually did orchestrate this and then gets couped for real?
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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