UK Politics IV: Disraeli Gears

[Imperializt Russia]

Wasn't the last recession caused by -1% growth?

Yes, something like that. So if you think that leaving the single market would be 5x worse than the banking crisis, we would only be as poor as Japan, and still be richer than Italy and South Korea.

Yeah but GDP isn't wealth.

[Freefall11111]

You don't coordinate macro-econ policy by taking risks.

I was under the impression that macro-economics was somewhat risk averse. Was I wrong?

Not at all. The whole point of macro policy is "slow and steady".

[Questers]

Yes, something like that. So if you think that leaving the single market would be 5x worse than the banking crisis, we would only be as poor as Japan, and still be richer than Italy and South Korea.

Yeah but GDP isn't wealth.

GDP is one of three expressions of wealth. It measures how much is being spent (and the balance of trade.) There's a reason we use expenditure-based system of national accounts so commonly, because it accurately reflects what life is like. There's not much point producing so many consumer goods if nobody can buy them.

[Freefall11111]

Everything involved with economy and business views risk as a negative, and stability and certainty as an incredible positive.

Nevertheless, polities sometimes take risks. Individuals sometimes take risks. A life without risk is not a life at all.

All I am saying is that if we have another recession the country won't implode or become a third world turdhole. We are actually much wealthier than we think we are (or more realistically, the rest of the developed world is much poorer than we think it is.)

I don't think anyone here seriously thinks the UK is on the verge of joining the third world. If they are, I question just how sheltered someone can be.

Leaving the single market isn't the end of the world, but it would be as harmful if not more so than the Great Recession.

[Imperializt Russia]

Yeah but GDP isn't wealth.

GDP is one of three expressions of wealth. It measures how much is being spent (and the balance of trade.) There's a reason we use expenditure-based system of national accounts so commonly, because it accurately reflects what life is like. There's not much point producing so many consumer goods if nobody can buy them.

Not everything produced is a consumer good, either.

This also doesn't take into account the notion that global companies, other countries and indeed Japan and Italy themselves are used to having the GDP of, well, Japan and Italy.
A 5% drop in GDP will be huge, and will shake investor confidence and a lot of scurrying around within UK firms.

[Questers]

Leaving the single market isn't the end of the world, but it would be as harmful if not more so than the Great Recession.

In my lifetime we've had what, three, four years in technical recession; another one's not going to destroy everything. I, like everyone else who votes & can read, was aware there'd be some kind of repercussion to Brexit.

[Questers]

GDP is one of three expressions of wealth. It measures how much is being spent (and the balance of trade.) There's a reason we use expenditure-based system of national accounts so commonly, because it accurately reflects what life is like. There's not much point producing so many consumer goods if nobody can buy them.

Not everything produced is a consumer good, either.

This also doesn't take into account the notion that global companies, other countries and indeed Japan and Italy themselves are used to having the GDP of, well, Japan and Italy.
A 5% drop in GDP will be huge, and will shake investor confidence and a lot of scurrying around within UK firms.

It doesn't take into account a lot of things. It was an extremely simplistic response to a hyperbolic claim. What are you looking for? Do you want me to publish a report? If so, why not insist on the person I quoted doing the same?

[Imperializt Russia]

Not everything produced is a consumer good, either.

This also doesn't take into account the notion that global companies, other countries and indeed Japan and Italy themselves are used to having the GDP of, well, Japan and Italy.
A 5% drop in GDP will be huge, and will shake investor confidence and a lot of scurrying around within UK firms.

It doesn't take into account a lot of things. It was an extremely simplistic response to a hyperbolic claim. What are you looking for? Do you want me to publish a report? If so, why not insist on the person I quoted doing the same?

Being as un-read as I am on the machinations of the global economy, "we'll have the same GDP as Japan or Italy if we have a slump five terms worse than the last recession" feels almost disingenuous.

Sure, that's where GDP may well end up, but that won't be the effect of such.

[Questers]

The problem is — and I will frame this in terms of narrative, and the problem with the argument — is in trying to persuade a person that their country's independence is not worth -1% of GDP, or something like £17,250 million.

Not regarding the obvious point about "independence" & whether or not we really maintain a measure of freedom from leaving the EU, it should be obvious why this argument holds so little water; and it holds even less water for people who can afford to weather the storm, or who have nothing to lose in either case.

[Freefall11111]

Leaving the single market isn't the end of the world, but it would be as harmful if not more so than the Great Recession.

In my lifetime we've had what, three, four years in technical recession; another one's not going to destroy everything. I, like everyone else who votes & can read, was aware there'd be some kind of repercussion to Brexit.

I just said it won't destroy everything. It'll just set back years of progress and kill off a ton of jobs.

[Questers]

It doesn't take into account a lot of things. It was an extremely simplistic response to a hyperbolic claim. What are you looking for? Do you want me to publish a report? If so, why not insist on the person I quoted doing the same?

Being as un-read as I am on the machinations of the global economy, "we'll have the same GDP as Japan or Italy if we have a slump five terms worse than the last recession" feels almost disingenuous.

Sure, that's where GDP may well end up, but that won't be the effect of such.

Well, its superficially true. We'll use the IMF numbers. In 2015 UK GDP PPP was $41,159. Japan's was $38,054. 95% of $41,159 is $39,101. South Korea's GDPpc PPP was $36,511 and Italy's $35,708.

GDP is constructed of Consumption & Government Spending & Investment & Balance of trade. It doesn't mean our incomes rise or fall because it's a measure of expenditure, but that's what is meant when politicians say the country is entering recession; we get poorer and can't spend as much. Similarly as we get richer we spend more. This is not the only valid measure of national economy so there is also net national income and net output and gross-value-added for sectors/regions etc.

But otherwise, you're asking me for a report. All I'm trying to do is say that if Brexit is in 2017 five times worse than the Great Recession our GDP will shrink to that of Italy. I'm not saying it would be good and not that it wouldn't be bad—only that hyperbole is unwarranted. Which it is.

[Philjia]

Liz "Dead behind the eyes" Truss is justice secretary. Oh dear.

[Questers]

In my lifetime we've had what, three, four years in technical recession; another one's not going to destroy everything. I, like everyone else who votes & can read, was aware there'd be some kind of repercussion to Brexit.

I just said it won't destroy everything. It'll just set back years of progress and kill off a ton of jobs.

Ok, I know that — but the post which you took objection to originally wasn't addressed to you, was it ?

[Freefall11111]

I just said it won't destroy everything. It'll just set back years of progress and kill off a ton of jobs.

Ok, I know that — but the post which you took objection to originally wasn't addressed to you, was it ?

Oh, sorry, I thought this was a public forum. I must've wandered into a private conversation.

[Questers]

Ok, I know that — but the post which you took objection to originally wasn't addressed to you, was it ?

Oh, sorry, I thought this was a public forum. I must've wandered into a private conversation.

Look. I am not actually disagreeing with what you are saying.

I am making the point that the country is not going to implode because of Brexit. You are saying yes, but it will be bad. I am agreeing—but that wasn't the point made to which I originally replied. I don't think what I am saying here is difficult or unfair.

[Freefall11111]

Miliband is upset about the department titles.

[Questers]

Ed was such a dude

[CoraSpia]

Is this cabinet a shift to the left or the right?

[Freefall11111]

Is this cabinet a shift to the left or the right?

There's no way to know until policy is announced, but probably to the right.

[Major-Tom]

Ed was such a dude

*douche.

[Questers]

Ed was such a dude

*douche.

good one tony

[CoraSpia]

Is this cabinet a shift to the left or the right?

There's no way to know until policy is announced, but probably to the right.

No Whittingdale though.

[Freefall11111]

Mundell remains Scottish Secretary. The Commons leader may end up not being part of the cabinet in the end. That's it, folks.

[The Nihilistic view]

Miliband is upset about the department titles.

LMAO

[Freefall11111]

Lidington is leader of the Commons.

For all three of you that care, Gauke is Chief Secretary to the Treasury.