UK Referendum Thread [Moderator Sanctioned]

[Dooom35796821595]

Yeah, because having the second largest economy in Europe won't give the Etfa a lot more power and ability to change it for the better.

Probably not. Quintupling its size probably won't do the other nations in it many favours.

Why not? The reason they're in the Etfa is because they want the trade agreements without being members of the Union. Meaning they have to fight the influence of the EU, something easier to do with a big hitter like the UK working with them. Or they could make a powerful enemy while still being a small player compared to Europe, since May dosent seem like someone who would forgive a veto against the UK.

[Arkolon]

Both the FTSE 100 and 250 fell markedly on the announcement of the referendum, and the FTSE 250 only recovered to pre-Brexit levels before the turn of August. The FTSE 100 contains multinational companies that deal primarily in foreign currency so the weakness of the pound appeared to make corporate profits greater in £ terms. Adjust FTSE 100 to be denominated in USD and see for yourself if gross corporate valuation rose.

As for a general idea of what a portfolio reshuffling is useful for, especially to be more bond-oriented post-Brexit, I've written about that before.

Adjusting the FTSE to be denominated in dollars makes no sense as the value of the dollar has risen. Looking at the FTSE in terms of pounds does make sense as, you know, the FTSE is based in the UK, where pounds are used.

It's to take into account valuation effects. A country whose currency halves in value overnight sees a 100% increase in the 'value' of their assets in own-currency terms. A FTSE 100 company being valued at $1 million went from being valued at £677k to £770k (a 15.4% increase), even if their profits did not change a single cent. FTSE 100 companies are primarily multinationals who deal in foreign currency, where the USD is used as a benchmark, so the valuation effect explains the rise, as basing the index in USD would show you.

[Ifreann]

Yeah, because having the second largest economy in Europe won't give the Etfa a lot more power and ability to change it for the better.

Probably not. Quintupling its size probably won't do the other nations in it many favours.

One may also wish to consider that the UK's behaviour towards the EU has perhaps not endeared them to the EFTA.

[Marcurix]

But I thought the whole point was that everyone was going to bend over backwards to give us whatever we want.

The point is to work for mutual intrests.

A concept the Brexit campaign made absolutely sure to throw out the window.

Or did you really think that the victory of a campaign that focused very heavily on "me and mine" was going to slip notice?

[Dooom35796821595]

The point is to work for mutual intrests.

A concept the Brexit campaign made absolutely sure to throw out the window.

Or did you really think that the victory of a campaign that focused very heavily on "me and mine" was going to slip notice?

A campaign of lies on both sides which most of the population ignored and voted on instinct. the fact that no one, not even UKIP expected victory goes to show that the issues were far deeper then the lackluster lack of a campaign showed them to be. Now everyone has to actually plan for what they actually want, and the EU might impliment actual reform away from German control.

[Salandriagado]

Which is why growth accelerated in the run-up to the referendum.

Growth and stock/currency prices have little to do with each other. We have been discussing the latter.

Humans make the decisions, that's why traders exist.

No they don't. The vast majority of all trades happen far faster than a human could even perceive, let alone make decisions about.

The decisions are made by humans, that's why Ceo's exist. And I was replying to the assertion that business confidence had fallen, which has nothing to do with computers.

CEOs make decisions about management, not rapid-turnover stock/currency trades, which are the dominant influences on stock prices and exchange rates respectively. The thing that you are replying to doesn't say what you seem to think it does.

[Vassenor]

UK economy contracted in July amid Brexit fallout

[Marcurix]

A concept the Brexit campaign made absolutely sure to throw out the window.

Or did you really think that the victory of a campaign that focused very heavily on "me and mine" was going to slip notice?

A campaign of lies on both sides which most of the population ignored and voted on instinct. the fact that no one, not even UKIP expected victory goes to show that the issues were far deeper then the lackluster lack of a campaign showed them to be. Now everyone has to actually plan for what they actually want, and the EU might impliment actual reform away from German control.

That's all well and good, but it does absolutely nothing to dispel the perception of selfishness that's come to define the vote to leave. In Europe, Farage made himself the face of it, outside of that the world was shown pictures of the immigrant poster, clips of people saying "it's the immigrants".

In short, there very little appetite to do us any favours, and we need a lot of them.

In honestly interested to see the response to China's warning over the delay of the nuclear power station. Seems to be a matter of how quickly the government will cave rather than a matter of if it will or not.

[Vassenor]

Brexit will increase intolerance outside our football grounds, says Lord Ouseley

The chairman of Kick It Out has urged football to do more to promote community cohesion in the face of a rising tide of hate speech and intolerance exacerbated by the Brexit debate.

Lord Ouseley said that while football should be praised for measures taken inside stadiums to stamp out discrimination, and for its community programmes, it had the power to do much more to combat the effects of a rise in prejudice in the grassroots game and beyond.

“It has been noticeable for at least two and a half years that there has been a rise in what I would call intolerance,” Ouseley told the Guardian. “That not only happens in the streets and in the playground but in higher levels of society. There is an underlying subliminal message that all came to the fore during the last few weeks with ‘We want our country back’ and so on.”

[San Lumen]

If they didn't sell they wouldn't have lost anything.

I think I'll leave that to the financial experts to decide.
You know.
The ones that decided to sell.

I don't give a darn what experts have to say or care what some rich banker or wealthy executive has to say. The British people decided what was best for them and decided they don't care what so called experts have to say. Banks and investors decided they didn't like the outcome and therefore threw a tantrum and cut jobs and crashed the pound instead of acting like adults and accepting the result. Refusing to sell the pound isn't fraud or insider trading in my view. Safeguarding people from themselves should be illegal.

[Marcurix]

I think I'll leave that to the financial experts to decide.
You know.
The ones that decided to sell.

I don't give a darn what experts have to say or care what some rich banker or wealthy executive has to say. The British people decided what was best for them and decided they don't care what so called experts have to say. Banks and investors decided they didn't like the outcome and therefore threw a tantrum and cut jobs and crashed the pound instead of acting like adults and accepting the result. Refusing to sell the pound isn't fraud or insider trading in my view. Safeguarding people from themselves should be illegal.

The British people decided and the British people will face whatever outcome comes of it as a result.

All those experts did their jobs in outlining what would be the pros and cons of an exit - and it tended to lean towards con. You don't get to complain when those negative aspects you were specifically warned about start to happen.

Contrary to this belief you seemingly have, people don't do these things for shits and giggles. Investors did their jobs in evaluating risks, as did the banks. You not liking the actions they took - which again is an action you were warned about - is the closest thing to a tantrum here.

[The balkens]

Brexit will increase intolerance outside our football grounds, says Lord Ouseley

The chairman of Kick It Out has urged football to do more to promote community cohesion in the face of a rising tide of hate speech and intolerance exacerbated by the Brexit debate.

Lord Ouseley said that while football should be praised for measures taken inside stadiums to stamp out discrimination, and for its community programmes, it had the power to do much more to combat the effects of a rise in prejudice in the grassroots game and beyond.

“It has been noticeable for at least two and a half years that there has been a rise in what I would call intolerance,” Ouseley told the Guardian. “That not only happens in the streets and in the playground but in higher levels of society. There is an underlying subliminal message that all came to the fore during the last few weeks with ‘We want our country back’ and so on.”

Yawnnn....

[Ifreann]

I think I'll leave that to the financial experts to decide.
You know.
The ones that decided to sell.

I don't give a darn what experts have to say or care what some rich banker or wealthy executive has to say. The British people decided what was best for them and decided they don't care what so called experts have to say. Banks and investors...

DO NOT WORK FOR THE BRITISH PEOPLE. What the British people decide means nothing to them beyond how it will impact their profits. What about this is hard for you to understand?

[San Lumen]

I don't give a darn what experts have to say or care what some rich banker or wealthy executive has to say. The British people decided what was best for them and decided they don't care what so called experts have to say. Banks and investors decided they didn't like the outcome and therefore threw a tantrum and cut jobs and crashed the pound instead of acting like adults and accepting the result. Refusing to sell the pound isn't fraud or insider trading in my view. Safeguarding people from themselves should be illegal.

The British people decided and the British people will face whatever outcome comes of it as a result.

All those experts did their jobs in outlining what would be the pros and cons of an exit - and it tended to lean towards con. You don't get to complain when those negative aspects you were specifically warned about start to happen.

Contrary to this belief you seemingly have, people don't do these things for shits and giggles. Investors did their jobs in evaluating risks, as did the banks. You not liking the actions they took - which again is an action you were warned about - is the closest thing to a tantrum here.

I meant to say shouldn't be illegal and I don't think what I'm saying is tantrum throwing in the slightest. I know a lot of people who agree with me.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

I think I'll leave that to the financial experts to decide.
You know.
The ones that decided to sell.

I don't give a darn what experts have to say or care what some rich banker or wealthy executive has to say. The British people decided what was best for them and decided they don't care what so called experts have to say. Banks and investors decided they didn't like the outcome and therefore threw a tantrum and cut jobs and crashed the pound instead of acting like adults and accepting the result. Refusing to sell the pound isn't fraud or insider trading in my view. Safeguarding people from themselves should be illegal.

Why, oh why do I always have to come here and put you in line?

It's not a "tantrum" it's what businesses do. They don't give a shit about you, or me. They care about their investors. If they did what you are saying they should have done, they'd have engaged in fraud or insider trading, both highly unethical, if not illegal, actions.

The Brexit was going to make them lose money if they kept it in pounds because they bet on a No-Brexit. The only reasonable thing to do at that point was to sell your pounds and to buy U.S. Dollars since it is a more stable form of currency at that point.

Also, they can't talk to each other, since that, again, would be insider trading. So nobody knows what others are going to do. Everyone else who had a stake at protecting their investors' interests but you would have sold their GBP and converted to USD because they're not colluding the markets and in fact it is as free of a market as it gets.

This is not a tantrum, this is a normal reaction of unpredictability.

The law doesn't agree with your view, further, and to protect people from themselves is the logical thing to do for any human being.

What you are asking is for people to self-immolate for others. That's literally against anyone's self interests.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

The British people decided and the British people will face whatever outcome comes of it as a result.

All those experts did their jobs in outlining what would be the pros and cons of an exit - and it tended to lean towards con. You don't get to complain when those negative aspects you were specifically warned about start to happen.

Contrary to this belief you seemingly have, people don't do these things for shits and giggles. Investors did their jobs in evaluating risks, as did the banks. You not liking the actions they took - which again is an action you were warned about - is the closest thing to a tantrum here.

I meant to say shouldn't be illegal and I don't think what I'm saying is tantrum throwing in the slightest. I know a lot of people who agree with me.

Oh yea? And do any of these people have stocks and bonds in the British market?

[Vassenor]

Economists put cost of UK losing European Union single market membership at £75bn

[Vassenor]

I meant to say shouldn't be illegal and I don't think what I'm saying is tantrum throwing in the slightest. I know a lot of people who agree with me.

Oh yea? And do any of these people have stocks and bonds in the British market?

And more pertinently, what background do they have in finance, economics or law?

[Freefall11111]

The British people decided and the British people will face whatever outcome comes of it as a result.

All those experts did their jobs in outlining what would be the pros and cons of an exit - and it tended to lean towards con. You don't get to complain when those negative aspects you were specifically warned about start to happen.

Contrary to this belief you seemingly have, people don't do these things for shits and giggles. Investors did their jobs in evaluating risks, as did the banks. You not liking the actions they took - which again is an action you were warned about - is the closest thing to a tantrum here.

I meant to say shouldn't be illegal and I don't think what I'm saying is tantrum throwing in the slightest. I know a lot of people who agree with me.

Argumentum ad populum. Crap argument. Try again.

[Lexten]

Adjusting the FTSE to be denominated in dollars makes no sense as the value of the dollar has risen. Looking at the FTSE in terms of pounds does make sense as, you know, the FTSE is based in the UK, where pounds are used.

It's to take into account valuation effects. A country whose currency halves in value overnight sees a 100% increase in the 'value' of their assets in own-currency terms. A FTSE 100 company being valued at $1 million went from being valued at £677k to £770k (a 15.4% increase), even if their profits did not change a single cent. FTSE 100 companies are primarily multinationals who deal in foreign currency, where the USD is used as a benchmark, so the valuation effect explains the rise, as basing the index in USD would show you.

But the dollar has also changed in value (it's value has increased) after Brexit so you could just as easily use the valuation effect to explain why the FTSE would be underperformed. And the multinational argument doesn't explain why the FTSE 250 has recouped all of its post-brexit losses.

Which is why growth accelerated in the run-up to the referendum.

Growth and stock/currency prices have little to do with each other. We have been discussing the latter.

Okay, why did the FTSE rise before the referendum if the markets don't like uncertainty?

Humans make the decisions, that's why traders exist.

No they don't. The vast majority of all trades happen far faster than a human could even perceive, let alone make decisions about.

If that was true:
1) Why do traders exist?
2) Why does the whole field of Behavioural Finance exist?

The decisions are made by humans, that's why Ceo's exist. And I was replying to the assertion that business confidence had fallen, which has nothing to do with computers.

CEOs make decisions about management, not rapid-turnover stock/currency trades, which are the dominant influences on stock prices and exchange rates respectively. The thing that you are replying to doesn't say what you seem to think it does.

I was originally replying to the assertion that business confidence across the UK and in many sectors has fallen.

[Arkolon]

It's to take into account valuation effects. A country whose currency halves in value overnight sees a 100% increase in the 'value' of their assets in own-currency terms. A FTSE 100 company being valued at $1 million went from being valued at £677k to £770k (a 15.4% increase), even if their profits did not change a single cent. FTSE 100 companies are primarily multinationals who deal in foreign currency, where the USD is used as a benchmark, so the valuation effect explains the rise, as basing the index in USD would show you.

But the dollar has also changed in value (it's value has increased) after Brexit

Versus the pound sterling, yes. Versus the euro or yen, or even on a trade-weighted index, no. This part is kind of a give-away that the valuation effect impacts British currency, not American currency, which is primarily used here as a benchmark.

And the multinational argument doesn't explain why the FTSE 250 has recouped all of its post-brexit losses.

Maybe because nothing has happened yet and shares just continued their usual trend following a short-lived blip. Again, what's telling is that the value of the currency (even before Carney's announcements) is so remarkably low, meaning investors aren't converting their money into GBP, signifying a distrust in the health of the economy.

[Salandriagado]

Growth and stock/currency prices have little to do with each other. We have been discussing the latter.

Okay, why did the FTSE rise before the referendum if the markets don't like uncertainty?

Because the markets were betting heavily on us voting to stay.

No they don't. The vast majority of all trades happen far faster than a human could even perceive, let alone make decisions about.

If that was true:
1) Why do traders exist?

To make money. Primarily, by writing better algorithms.

2) Why does the whole field of Behavioural Finance exist?

To find ways to write better algorithms, and hence make more money. See here: both algorithmic and DMA trades are done by computers.

[Vassenor]

Bank of England's Brexit plan to prop up the economy with QE fails on second day

The Bank of England plan to boost the economy with quantitative easing after Brexit has ran into trouble on its second day after it failed to find enough sellers of bonds.

The central bank was £52 million short of its target to buy £1 billion in long-dated government debt, pushing bond yields to record lows.

Pension funds and insurance companies were behind the missed target as they hung on to Government bonds, or gilts, which are seen as a safe haven asset in times of economic uncertainty.

[Lexten]

And the multinational argument doesn't explain why the FTSE 250 has recouped all of its post-brexit losses.

Maybe because nothing has happened yet and shares just continued their usual trend following a short-lived blip. Again, what's telling is that the value of the currency (even before Carney's announcements) is so remarkably low, meaning investors aren't converting their money into GBP, signifying a distrust in the health of the economy.

Yes, because the scaremongering from multiple sources led to that distrust in the UK economy and initial kneejerk reaction which caused the short-term blip. My original point.

Okay, why did the FTSE rise before the referendum if the markets don't like uncertainty?

Because the markets were betting heavily on us voting to stay.

So, what, uncertainty doesn't matter then? And computers bet now?

If that was true:
1) Why do traders exist?

To make money. Primarily, by writing better algorithms.

Job description of a financial trader. Nowhere does it mention writing algorithms.

2) Why does the whole field of Behavioural Finance exist?

To find ways to write better algorithms, and hence make more money. See here: both algorithmic and DMA trades are done by computers.[/quote]

You yourself said that computers don't react to scaremongering, they act rationally. The whole point of behavioural finance is to correct for people acting irrationally. If all currency trading is done by computers then nobody would be acting irrationally and hence behavioural finance wouldn't exist.

[Lexten]

Bank of England's Brexit plan to prop up the economy with QE fails on second day

The Bank of England plan to boost the economy with quantitative easing after Brexit has ran into trouble on its second day after it failed to find enough sellers of bonds.

The central bank was £52 million short of its target to buy £1 billion in long-dated government debt, pushing bond yields to record lows.

Pension funds and insurance companies were behind the missed target as they hung on to Government bonds, or gilts, which are seen as a safe haven asset in times of economic uncertainty.

Run into trouble (missing their target by 5.2% after only two days)=/= failed