UK Referendum Thread [Moderator Sanctioned]

[San Lumen]

And besides, do you honestly think that ranting about tinfoil conspiracies on the internet is somehow going to magically reverse all the economic changes that were predicted long in advance of the vote, and people went into the vote knowing full well that a Leave result would have those consequences?

I'm not spouting tinfoil conspiracies. They didn't have to sell or cut jobs or threaten other things. They could stop acting like children and decided not to sell.

[Vassenor]

It was banks and investors acting like spoiled children because they didn't get their way.

No they fucking weren't. Oh my god, how do you not understand this? Banks and investors don't give two shits about anything except their bottom line. They are not punishing Britain for voting to leave the EU. They are protecting their own profits. That is all they care about. That is all they ever have or ever will care about.

But that's not emotive so it must be lies.

[Imperializt Russia]

And besides, do you honestly think that ranting about tinfoil conspiracies on the internet is somehow going to magically reverse all the economic changes that were predicted long in advance of the vote, and people went into the vote knowing full well that a Leave result would have those consequences?

I'm not spouting tinfoil conspiracies. They didn't have to sell or cut jobs or threaten other things. They could stop acting like children and decided not to sell.

Of course you're spouting conspiracies.

Rather than the rational belief that a bunch of investors, acting as individuals and rational actors, made the same decision (because it was the best decision in their interest and the interest of their clients), you believe they all secretly colluded to deprive Britain of its Brexit glory by maliciously tanking the economy.
You also believe that they should have colluded, instead to deceive and defraud their clients, and their businesses, and the global market, so that the British economy could stand firm and glorious as a bulldog cuddling a lion in the breeze.

[Alvecia]

And besides, do you honestly think that ranting about tinfoil conspiracies on the internet is somehow going to magically reverse all the economic changes that were predicted long in advance of the vote, and people went into the vote knowing full well that a Leave result would have those consequences?

acting like children

TIL acting like a responsible adult and doing your job is childish

[Vassenor]

And besides, do you honestly think that ranting about tinfoil conspiracies on the internet is somehow going to magically reverse all the economic changes that were predicted long in advance of the vote, and people went into the vote knowing full well that a Leave result would have those consequences?

I'm not spouting tinfoil conspiracies. They didn't have to sell or cut jobs or threaten other things. They could stop acting like children and decided not to sell.

Have you actually been listening to anything that we've said here? Or are you just sitting there with your fingers in your ears humming until we give up and agree with you?

[Arkolon]

Especially when it was made clear this is what would happen. Repeatedly.

Or this just because you can't write it off as scaremongering now?

But the scaremongering is what led to the pound crashing. It was a self-fulfilling prophecy.

What sent the pound crashing - or rather what sent the value of the dollar to the pound spiking - is investors converting their currencies to buy (especially safe) assets out of the country. This sent bond yields and share indices falling as well since investors took money out of things that would presumably provide lower return (perhaps leaving the EU meant lower profits) compared to bonds. While it is true that it's a bit premature - nothing has legally been changed yet so at most it's confidence that's been shaken - it's very telling that GBPUSD is still at around the 1.30 mark, lower than it was just after the referendum, meaning the money that left is still reluctant about returning into GBP.

[Ifreann]

And besides, do you honestly think that ranting about tinfoil conspiracies on the internet is somehow going to magically reverse all the economic changes that were predicted long in advance of the vote, and people went into the vote knowing full well that a Leave result would have those consequences?

I'm not spouting tinfoil conspiracies. They didn't have to sell or cut jobs or threaten other things. They could stop acting like children and decided not to sell.

Except they're not acting like children. They're acting like their primary motivation is and always has been profit. Because they are for-profit organisations. What the fuck about this is hard to understand?

[Lexten]

The scaremongering scared the investors, who (after the Brexit vote) then thought that the pound was too risky and worth less, so it became worth less.

So now it's gone from expert economists are wrong to people whose entire job is to accurately predict currency movements, and who are making quite good living based on that, are uniquely incompetent when it comes to Brexit and are selling based on wrong expert opinion or public opinion rather than relying on their algorithms, and in house mathematics they've been using for every other transaction... or maybe telling our biggest trading partner to suck it without having any remotely recognisable plan was not a genius idea like experts suggested and traders actually know what they're doing?
Out of curiosity, how much have you invested in buying pounds; given its merely under all due to scaremongering and when market returns to its senses, it'll return to normal making you awesome profits?

Where did I say the traders didn't know what they were doing?

[Lexten]

But the scaremongering is what led to the pound crashing. It was a self-fulfilling prophecy.

What sent the pound crashing - or rather what sent the value of the dollar to the pound spiking - is investors converting their currencies to buy (especially safe) assets out of the country. This sent bond yields and share indices falling as well since investors took money out of things that would presumably provide lower return (perhaps leaving the EU meant lower profits) compared to bonds. While it is true that it's a bit premature - nothing has legally been changed yet so at most it's confidence that's been shaken - it's very telling that GBPUSD is still at around the 1.30 mark, lower than it was just after the referendum, meaning the money that left is still reluctant about returning into GBP.

Right, the only thing that's changed is investors confidence in the pound. The only reason that investors are less confident in the pound is because of the scaremongering about what would happen in the case of Brexit.

[Great Nepal]

So now it's gone from expert economists are wrong to people whose entire job is to accurately predict currency movements, and who are making quite good living based on that, are uniquely incompetent when it comes to Brexit and are selling based on wrong expert opinion or public opinion rather than relying on their algorithms, and in house mathematics they've been using for every other transaction... or maybe telling our biggest trading partner to suck it without having any remotely recognisable plan was not a genius idea like experts suggested and traders actually know what they're doing?
Out of curiosity, how much have you invested in buying pounds; given its merely under all due to scaremongering and when market returns to its senses, it'll return to normal making you awesome profits?

Where did I say the traders didn't know what they were doing?

If traders are making bad investment based on public hysteria and haven't invested heavily in apparently undervalued currency for last month+, clearly they don't know what they're doing.

[Marcurix]

What sent the pound crashing - or rather what sent the value of the dollar to the pound spiking - is investors converting their currencies to buy (especially safe) assets out of the country. This sent bond yields and share indices falling as well since investors took money out of things that would presumably provide lower return (perhaps leaving the EU meant lower profits) compared to bonds. While it is true that it's a bit premature - nothing has legally been changed yet so at most it's confidence that's been shaken - it's very telling that GBPUSD is still at around the 1.30 mark, lower than it was just after the referendum, meaning the money that left is still reluctant about returning into GBP.

Right, the only thing that's changed is investors confidence in the pound. The only reason that investors are less confident in the pound is because of the scaremongering about what would happen in the case of Brexit.

You mean the advice from the various sources and range of opinions that investors usually get their information from indicating it would have a negative impact.

I'm so sick of people thinking they can dismiss things they don't like but can't actually argue against as scaremongering. It's bullshit. They made an informed decision using things they always use.

[Arkolon]

What sent the pound crashing - or rather what sent the value of the dollar to the pound spiking - is investors converting their currencies to buy (especially safe) assets out of the country. This sent bond yields and share indices falling as well since investors took money out of things that would presumably provide lower return (perhaps leaving the EU meant lower profits) compared to bonds. While it is true that it's a bit premature - nothing has legally been changed yet so at most it's confidence that's been shaken - it's very telling that GBPUSD is still at around the 1.30 mark, lower than it was just after the referendum, meaning the money that left is still reluctant about returning into GBP.

Right, the only thing that's changed is investors confidence in the pound. The only reason that investors are less confident in the pound is because of the scaremongering about what would happen in the case of Brexit.

Is it still scaremongering if it's true?

[Alvecia]

Right, the only thing that's changed is investors confidence in the pound. The only reason that investors are less confident in the pound is because of the scaremongering about what would happen in the case of Brexit.

Is it still scaremongering if it's true?

I think they call that "forewarning"

[HMS Vanguard]

I'm not spouting tinfoil conspiracies. They didn't have to sell or cut jobs or threaten other things. They could stop acting like children and decided not to sell.

Of course you're spouting conspiracies.

Rather than the rational belief that a bunch of investors, acting as individuals and rational actors, made the same decision (because it was the best decision in their interest and the interest of their clients), you believe they all secretly colluded to deprive Britain of its Brexit glory by maliciously tanking the economy.
You also believe that they should have colluded, instead to deceive and defraud their clients, and their businesses, and the global market, so that the British economy could stand firm and glorious as a bulldog cuddling a lion in the breeze.

The economy hasn't tanked. The markets are above the pre-Brexit level, The BoE hasn't predicted a recession, and there's no real solid data on anything else. The exchange rate dropped against the USD, but the USD:GBP exchange rate doesn't predict UK living standards.

[Souseiseki]

Of course you're spouting conspiracies.

Rather than the rational belief that a bunch of investors, acting as individuals and rational actors, made the same decision (because it was the best decision in their interest and the interest of their clients), you believe they all secretly colluded to deprive Britain of its Brexit glory by maliciously tanking the economy.
You also believe that they should have colluded, instead to deceive and defraud their clients, and their businesses, and the global market, so that the British economy could stand firm and glorious as a bulldog cuddling a lion in the breeze.

The economy hasn't tanked. The markets are above the pre-Brexit level, The BoE hasn't predicted a recession, and there's no real solid data on anything else. The exchange rate dropped against the USD, but the USD:GBP exchange rate doesn't predict UK living standards.

this is pre-brexit. brexit has not happened. all this panic and damage is due to the mere idea it might happen.

[HMS Vanguard]

The economy hasn't tanked. The markets are above the pre-Brexit level, The BoE hasn't predicted a recession, and there's no real solid data on anything else. The exchange rate dropped against the USD, but the USD:GBP exchange rate doesn't predict UK living standards.

this is pre-brexit. brexit has not happened. all this panic and damage is due to the mere idea it might happen.

loss = predicted_damage * brexit_probability

Granted that brexit_probability is less than 1.0, loss is 0.0, so unless brexit_probability is 0.0, so is predicted_damage.

At least that is what the markets are saying.

[Zeinbrad]

Of course you're spouting conspiracies.

Rather than the rational belief that a bunch of investors, acting as individuals and rational actors, made the same decision (because it was the best decision in their interest and the interest of their clients), you believe they all secretly colluded to deprive Britain of its Brexit glory by maliciously tanking the economy.
You also believe that they should have colluded, instead to deceive and defraud their clients, and their businesses, and the global market, so that the British economy could stand firm and glorious as a bulldog cuddling a lion in the breeze.

The economy hasn't tanked. The markets are above the pre-Brexit level, The BoE hasn't predicted a recession, and there's no real solid data on anything else. The exchange rate dropped against the USD, but the USD:GBP exchange rate doesn't predict UK living standards.

https://www.google.com/search?q=BoE&rlz ... on&tbm=nws

Seems to be they are trying to prevent a recession that has a %50 percent chance of happening.

[Imperializt Russia]

Of course you're spouting conspiracies.

Rather than the rational belief that a bunch of investors, acting as individuals and rational actors, made the same decision (because it was the best decision in their interest and the interest of their clients), you believe they all secretly colluded to deprive Britain of its Brexit glory by maliciously tanking the economy.
You also believe that they should have colluded, instead to deceive and defraud their clients, and their businesses, and the global market, so that the British economy could stand firm and glorious as a bulldog cuddling a lion in the breeze.

The economy hasn't tanked. The markets are above the pre-Brexit level, The BoE hasn't predicted a recession, and there's no real solid data on anything else. The exchange rate dropped against the USD, but the USD:GBP exchange rate doesn't predict UK living standards.

His words, not mine.

[HMS Vanguard]

The economy hasn't tanked. The markets are above the pre-Brexit level, The BoE hasn't predicted a recession, and there's no real solid data on anything else. The exchange rate dropped against the USD, but the USD:GBP exchange rate doesn't predict UK living standards.

https://www.google.com/search?q=BoE&rlz ... on&tbm=nws

Seems to be they are trying to prevent a recession that has a %50 percent chance of happening.

The first story from that link - https://www.ft.com/content/8fbe250a-5a5 ... aa66292c32

No recession, half a percentage point on unemployment.

Sure, it's something. But not much.

[Vassenor]

https://www.google.com/search?q=BoE&rlz ... on&tbm=nws

Seems to be they are trying to prevent a recession that has a %50 percent chance of happening.

The first story from that link - https://www.ft.com/content/8fbe250a-5a5 ... aa66292c32

No recession, half a percentage point on unemployment.

Sure, it's something. But not much.

And the other sources?

[Zeinbrad]

https://www.google.com/search?q=BoE&rlz ... on&tbm=nws

Seems to be they are trying to prevent a recession that has a %50 percent chance of happening.

The first story from that link - https://www.ft.com/content/8fbe250a-5a5 ... aa66292c32

No recession, half a percentage point on unemployment.

Sure, it's something. But not much.

You said "The BoE hasn't predicted a recession," I was pointing out that was a lie. They were, even if they aren't now.

[HMS Vanguard]

The first story from that link - https://www.ft.com/content/8fbe250a-5a5 ... aa66292c32

No recession, half a percentage point on unemployment.

Sure, it's something. But not much.

You said "The BoE hasn't predicted a recession," I was pointing out that was a lie. They were, even if they aren't now.

That is as much a lie as to say that the government hasn't been worried about a German invasion.

[HMS Vanguard]

The first story from that link - https://www.ft.com/content/8fbe250a-5a5 ... aa66292c32

No recession, half a percentage point on unemployment.

Sure, it's something. But not much.

And the other sources?

Want personalised commentary on all 34,500 hits?

[Vassenor]

And the other sources?

Want personalised commentary on all 34,500 hits?

I want your appraisal of the general claim of "BoE predicts 50/50 chance of recession resulting from Brexit fallout".

[HMS Vanguard]

Want personalised commentary on all 34,500 hits?

I want your appraisal of the general claim of "BoE predicts 50/50 chance of recession resulting from Brexit fallout".

Please link to the story reporting the Bank of England predicting a 50% chance of recession.