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Arkolon
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Postby Arkolon » Sat Jul 30, 2016 2:53 pm

Llamalandia wrote:
Arkolon wrote:This is more an entrenchment of German macroeconomics in EU policymaking than the EU itself. Germans felt as if their internal devaluation in the early 2000s made them more flexible and, therefore, avoid the GFC. Germans saw the GFC as the failure of Anglo-Saxon capitalism and take the high ground by trying to impose austerity and internal devaluation since, in their eyes, it's the model that worked. It's not a fundamental EU thing, it's pretty much entirely contingent on how events unfolded over the past fifteen years.

Ok but isn't Germany's economy pretty awesome at the moment? Seems like they are kinda doing something right over there.

The German economy being "pretty awesome" is a total byproduct of the European Union's structure. Namely, the euro is cheaper than the Deutschmark and so German exporters profit greatly from the currency union. Furthermore, the Eurozone allowed easy access to cheap credit for the European periphery, who indebted themselves to take in German capital and to buy more German products. Being in a currency union like the euro also means export-led growth is the only viable way to induce sustainable (ie not cyclical) growth, so in some sense Germans profit from the imbalance in the European economy. Paraphrasing the words of a FT columnist: "huge surpluses are just as bad as huge deficits", but these surpluses keep Germany strong, and the rest of the Eurozone weak. German mentality compels them to think that internal devaluation would do them well, and used the crisis (an Anglo-Saxon creation, in their eyes) to reject Anglo-Saxon economics, notably Keynesianism, which would spur demand and would avoid feeding this self-reinforcing crisis of austerity.

When the Eurocrisis hit the German labour market was malleable enough to absorb most of it, and its exports were more reliant on purchases outside of the European Union - which explains the change in German foreign policy to turn a blind eye to unethical Chinese (or other authoritarian) practices since these people are financing the resilience of the German economy.
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Olerand
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Postby Olerand » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:50 am

Arkolon wrote:
Llamalandia wrote:Ok but isn't Germany's economy pretty awesome at the moment? Seems like they are kinda doing something right over there.

The German economy being "pretty awesome" is a total byproduct of the European Union's structure. Namely, the euro is cheaper than the Deutschmark and so German exporters profit greatly from the currency union. Furthermore, the Eurozone allowed easy access to cheap credit for the European periphery, who indebted themselves to take in German capital and to buy more German products. Being in a currency union like the euro also means export-led growth is the only viable way to induce sustainable (ie not cyclical) growth, so in some sense Germans profit from the imbalance in the European economy. Paraphrasing the words of a FT columnist: "huge surpluses are just as bad as huge deficits", but these surpluses keep Germany strong, and the rest of the Eurozone weak. German mentality compels them to think that internal devaluation would do them well, and used the crisis (an Anglo-Saxon creation, in their eyes) to reject Anglo-Saxon economics, notably Keynesianism, which would spur demand and would avoid feeding this self-reinforcing crisis of austerity.

When the Eurocrisis hit the German labour market was malleable enough to absorb most of it, and its exports were more reliant on purchases outside of the European Union - which explains the change in German foreign policy to turn a blind eye to unethical Chinese (or other authoritarian) practices since these people are financing the resilience of the German economy.

Recent reports from the European Banking Authority showed that after the ancient Italian Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (oldest still functioning bank in the world), the most volatile European banks (those most likely to suffer catastrophic losses in case of a new economic downturn) were no other than Deutsche Bank (largest bank in Germany), and Commerzbank (second largest bank in Germany), as well as the Royal Bank of Scotland. This result even after the German government had gotten the EBA to ignore the Landesbanks (regional "public purpose"-driven banks owned by the German Landers) and their potential for failure.

So, Germany is doing fine now, but let the next economic recession hit, which it inevitably will as capitalism goes through its regular ups and downs, and then let's see Germany continue to commandeer Europe into its austerity and strict financial responsibility pond.
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Baltenstein
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Postby Baltenstein » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:17 am

Considering that the only national alternatives to austerity are either:

A.) Having enough renevue to be independent of external support
B.) Finding a different country/institution/rich grand-uncle who is willing to play the role of financial supporter

I don't really see how other European countries would be able to "will" Germany into Keyesianism or whatever. Either a country doesn't have to rely on German financial support for its state budget, in which case German economic opinion doesn't matter, or it does have to rely on it, in which case the last say on how the funds are to used are obviously lying with the paying party.
Last edited by Baltenstein on Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Arkolon
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Postby Arkolon » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:27 am

Almost as if the Eurozone is a rushed, poorly-executed project that in hindsight was a lot more trouble than it was worth. The sad part is, leaving the Eurozone is even more damaging to a national economy than staying in it. The solution lies in getting rid of stringent fiscal controls or getting on with centralising fiscal policy and having Germans renounce their role as exporter to Europe & Beyond.
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Olerand
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Postby Olerand » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:39 am

Baltenstein wrote:Considering that the only national alternatives to austerity are either:

A.) Having enough renevue to be independent of external support
B.) Finding a different country/institution/rich grand-uncle who is willing to play the role of financial supporter

I don't really see how other European countries would be able to "will" Germany into Keyesianism or whatever. Either a country doesn't have to rely on German financial support for its state budget, in which case German economic opinion doesn't matter, or it does have to rely on it, in which case the last say on how the funds are to used are obviously lying with the paying party.

Austerity is a clear failure, however, so much so that the IMF itself advises against it.

What the IMF now recommends, and what the Socialist government in France has been (oh so hesitantly, and with great failures) trying to do for the past 4 years is structural (mostly labour) reform, but without cutting public spending, as evidence has clearly shown cutting public spending does not result in increased private spending to counteract the State's cuts. We have wasted so much time in Europe on what was clearly a morality play by northern countries against the south, and even some of those most austere northern countries are struggling today (hello Finland).

Austerity is a failure, the belief that everyone can just emulate Germany with its export numbers is clearly silly (not everyone can be a net exporter at the same time, someone has to import what is being exported), and considering that most of the bailout money towards Greece (the most flagrant example) was a direct transfer from the French and German States to French and German banks who had loaned Greece money in the first place, followed by money just to keep the Greek State minimally functioning as its economy collapsed, I can say that Germany's economic policy in Europe has been a failure.

While it is undoubtedly true that European States spend too much and too loosely (French child subsidies past the third child come to mind, other than every electoral gift Hollande and Valls have announced in the past few months), German-style Spartan austerity is clearly not the way out of these dark woods.

If only Hollande had the cajones to force a Treaty change in 2012 like he had promised he would, instead of wasting two years in social chaos, and now trying to become some military president to compensate for his utter failures elsewhere.
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Baltenstein
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Postby Baltenstein » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:56 am

Olerand wrote:
Austerity is a clear failure, however, so much so that the IMF itself advises against it.


They're not providing funds for a non-austerity budget program either, though.

What the IMF now recommends, and what the Socialist government in France has been (oh so hesitantly, and with great failures) trying to do for the past 4 years is structural (mostly labour) reform, but without cutting public spending, as evidence has clearly shown cutting public spending does not result in increased private spending to counteract the State's cuts. We have wasted so much time in Europe on what was clearly a morality play by northern countries against the south, and even some of those most austere northern countries are struggling today (hello Finland).


If Northern countries are struggling at home, this will obviously make them even less lenient towards the Southern countries, not more.

Austerity is a failure, the belief that everyone can just emulate Germany with its export numbers is clearly silly (not everyone can be a net exporter at the same time, someone has to import what is being exported), and considering that most of the bailout money towards Greece (the most flagrant example) was a direct transfer from the French and German States to French and German banks who had loaned Greece money in the first place, followed by money just to keep the Greek State minimally functioning as its economy collapsed


And yet, to its great humiliation, the current Greek government discovered that it depends on said money in order to function - despite being a big show of claiming the opposite for the first half of 2015 - and thus was forced to agree to a new memorandum.

I can say that Germany's economic policy in Europe has been a failure.

While it is undoubtedly true that European States spend too much and too loosely (French child subsidies past the third child come to mind, other than every electoral gift Hollande and Valls have announced in the past few months), German-style Spartan austerity is clearly not the way out of these dark woods.


As I said before, the moment a country finds a way to not be reliant on German financial support, be it by having enough market trust to return to the markets and borrow at low interest (like Ireland, Cyprus and Portugal did), be it by generating enough revenue on its own, be it by finding a third party-benefactor (like Tsipras so facepalmingly pretented to have found in Russia and China), be it by stumbling upon a hidden stash of pirate treasure etc.
As long as a state is forced to ask other Euro countries for handouts it will be forced to accept those countries' bailout conditions.

With the inevitable immigration- and terrorism-related rise of the Right-wing in the Netherlands, Finland and even Germany said conditions will probably be even harsher in the future.
Last edited by Baltenstein on Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Olerand
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Postby Olerand » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:05 am

Baltenstein wrote:
Olerand wrote:
Austerity is a clear failure, however, so much so that the IMF itself advises against it.


They're not providing funds for a non-austerity budget program either, though.

What the IMF now recommends, and what the Socialist government in France has been (oh so hesitantly, and with great failures) trying to do for the past 4 years is structural (mostly labour) reform, but without cutting public spending, as evidence has clearly shown cutting public spending does not result in increased private spending to counteract the State's cuts. We have wasted so much time in Europe on what was clearly a morality play by northern countries against the south, and even some of those most austere northern countries are struggling today (hello Finland).


If Northern countries are struggling at home, this will obviously make them even less lenient towards the Southern countries, not more.

Austerity is a failure, the belief that everyone can just emulate Germany with its export numbers is clearly silly (not everyone can be a net exporter at the same time, someone has to import what is being exported), and considering that most of the bailout money towards Greece (the most flagrant example) was a direct transfer from the French and German States to French and German banks who had loaned Greece money in the first place, followed by money just to keep the Greek State minimally functioning as its economy collapsed


And yet, to its great humiliation, the current Greek government discovered that it depends on said money in order to function - despite being a big show of claiming the opposite for the first half of 2015 - and thus was forced to agree to a new memorandum.

I can say that Germany's economic policy in Europe has been a failure.

While it is undoubtedly true that European States spend too much and too loosely (French child subsidies past the third child come to mind, other than every electoral gift Hollande and Valls have announced in the past few months), German-style Spartan austerity is clearly not the way out of these dark woods.


As I said before, the moment a country finds a way to not be reliant on German financial support, be it by having enough market trust to return to the markets and borrow at low interest (like Ireland, Cyprus and Portugal did), be it by generating enough revenue on its own, be it by finding a third party-benefactor (like Tsipras so facepalmingly pretented to have found in Russia and China), be it by stumbling upon a hidden stash of pirate treasure etc.
As long as a state is forced to ask other Euro countries for handouts it will be forced to accept those countries' bailout conditions.

With the inevitable immigration- and terrorism-related rise of the Right-wing in the Netherlands, Finland and even Germany said conditions will probably be even harsher in the future.

The IMF is not an independent entity, it is very dependent on the decisions of its member States. Those member States have not authorized it to engage some kind of stimulus program in southern Europe (and I doubt it has that authority in its charter, I believe it provides the funds for those States to start stimuli themselves, although I doubt the IMF has historically been in that line of work).

True, Finland has not wavered on its austerity policies towards the south, even as it wavers internally (and the Social Democrats rise to compete with the Centrists for political plurality again). (Protestant) Morality is a powerful drug. :p

Greece (with help from good ol'Goldman Sachs) falsified information to enter the Euro in the first place. It should never have been in the Eurozone and should have devalued the Drachma by now. But past mistakes are of the past, and Greece's economy has collapsed since the State privatized everything and drastically cut funding, unemployment has risen (and as the Greek social security system is dependent on employment status, all those unemployed youth, elderly, and middle aged people are now without social security or healthcare), its debt has ballooned, and as you have said, the Greek State is now dependent on European bailout money to continue to minimally function, and to grow its debt, of course.

Also true. Greece is dependent on Germany for money, so it is obligated to follow Germany's demands. But considering that Germany's demands have clearly resulted in failure, the question is, why is Germany still in this ideological position (other than for moral lecturing, or internal politicking as the German people demand Germany not lose a centime in Greece)?

True again. Even darker times are ahead for our continent.
Last edited by Olerand on Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Baltenstein
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Postby Baltenstein » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:30 am

Olerand wrote:[
The IMF is not an independent entity, it is very dependent on the decisions of its member States. Those member States have not authorized it to engage some kind of stimulus program in southern Europe (and I doubt it has that authority in its charter, I believe it provides the funds for those States to start stimuli themselves, although I doubt the IMF has historically been in that line of work).


Yes, but the IMF's chief contributor (the US) could easily provide more money for the Greek state budget, as they are constantly urging Germany to do. They don't however.

Greece (with help from good ol'Goldman Sachs) falsified information to enter the Euro in the first place. It should never have been in the Eurozone and should have devalued the Drachma by now. But past mistakes are of the past, and Greece's economy has collapsed since the State privatized everything and drastically cut funding, unemployment has risen (and as the Greek social security system is dependent on employment status, all those unemployed youth, elderly, and middle aged people are now without social security or healthcare), its debt has ballooned, and as you have said, the Greek State is now dependent on European bailout money to continue to minimally function, and to grow its debt, of course.


I daresay that Greece was showing some signs of recovery in the last period of Samaras' government. The interest on Greek bonds was falling, investor trust was returning etc. Syriza's mind-boggingly catastrophic way of handling things has evaporated this however, and made Greece's economic situation worse than ever. I've stopped believing that any sort of economic improvement is possible under Tsipras. Even now, his main concern is neither Greece's financial state, nor the situation in Turkey, but fumbling with Greece's constitution and introducing an ill-conceived constitution reform that nobody had heard of or asked for. These people have no clue what they are doing.

Also true. Greece is dependent on Germany for money, so it is obligated to follow Germany's demands. But considering that Germany's demands have clearly resulted in failure, the question is, why is Germany still in this ideological position (other than for moral lecturing, or internal politicking as the German people demand Germany not lose a centime in Greece)?


Mostly it's those two things you have mentioned. The current Greek government has burned away any possible good will in both the German government and German public opinion. If more lenient measures for Greece (like debt relief) will come, it will only be under the next (New Democracy-led) government.
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Olerand
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Postby Olerand » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:39 am

Baltenstein wrote:
Olerand wrote:[
The IMF is not an independent entity, it is very dependent on the decisions of its member States. Those member States have not authorized it to engage some kind of stimulus program in southern Europe (and I doubt it has that authority in its charter, I believe it provides the funds for those States to start stimuli themselves, although I doubt the IMF has historically been in that line of work).


Yes, but the IMF's chief contributor (the US) could easily provide more money for the Greek state budget, as they are constantly urging Germany to do. They don't however.

Greece (with help from good ol'Goldman Sachs) falsified information to enter the Euro in the first place. It should never have been in the Eurozone and should have devalued the Drachma by now. But past mistakes are of the past, and Greece's economy has collapsed since the State privatized everything and drastically cut funding, unemployment has risen (and as the Greek social security system is dependent on employment status, all those unemployed youth, elderly, and middle aged people are now without social security or healthcare), its debt has ballooned, and as you have said, the Greek State is now dependent on European bailout money to continue to minimally function, and to grow its debt, of course.


I daresay that Greece was showing some signs of recovery in the last period of Samaras' government. The interest on Greek bonds was falling, investor trust was returning etc. Syriza's mind-boggingly catastrophic way of handling things has evaporated this however, and made Greece's economic situation worse than ever. I've stopped believing that any sort of economic improvement is possible under Tsipras. Even now, his main concern is neither Greece's financial state, nor the situation in Turkey, but fumbling with Greece's constitution and introducing an ill-conceived constitution reform that nobody had heard of or asked for. These people have no clue what they are doing.

Also true. Greece is dependent on Germany for money, so it is obligated to follow Germany's demands. But considering that Germany's demands have clearly resulted in failure, the question is, why is Germany still in this ideological position (other than for moral lecturing, or internal politicking as the German people demand Germany not lose a centime in Greece)?


Mostly it's those two things you have mentioned. The current Greek government has burned away any possible good will in both the German government and German public opinion. If more lenient measures for Greece (like debt relief) will come, it will only be under the next (New Democracy-led) government.

The US does not have a controlling majority of the IMF, nor is it its place to bypass Germany (the fourth largest voter, largest European one) and provide Greece with funds, even if the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, is for. The IMF has been doing everything in its power to convince Europe of the necessity of stimulus, and it has called on Germany numerous times to use its budgetary surplus to stimulate the German economy too, but it can only do so much when Germany is categorically opposed to anything other than austerity.

That's not what I would consider a recovery. Tsipras has been bad, certainly, but Greece was hardly on the path to recovery before he came along. It's not like he even ended austerity anyway, he's still practicing it too. I doubt the upcoming return of ND to government is going fix Greece, and what is this constitutional reform? French media rarely speaks of Greek issues other than to say it is broke.

New Democracy was in power prior to Syriza, and nothing happened then. Schauble was no kinder to Samaras than he is to Tsipras. Germany needs to realize that internal politicking and moral lecturing are not going to solve this, and by now, we really need to just solve this.
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Baltenstein
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Postby Baltenstein » Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:00 am

The US does not have a controlling majority of the IMF, nor is it its place to bypass Germany (the fourth largest voter, largest European one) and provide Greece with funds, even if the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, is for. The IMF has been doing everything in its power to convince Europe of the necessity of stimulus, and it has called on Germany numerous times to use its budgetary surplus to stimulate the German economy too, but it can only do so much when Germany is categorically opposed to anything other than austerity.


The US could easily give Greece funds on a bilateral basis though. In fact, considering Turkish-American relations are going to become considerably worse in the near future, I'd argue this would actually be in the US' interests.
Of course, as long as Greece is ruled by a bunch of clueless Putin fanboys, no such thing is going to happen.

And I disagree on Germany being categorically opposed to anything other than austerity. As we've seen with Schauble's recent greenlighting of Portugal's and Spain's fiscal deficit violation, even German protestants are capable of giving Mediterranean countries the benefit of the doubt. Only when responsible behavior is to be expected though, which is not the case with Greece's current government.

That's not what I would consider a recovery. Tsipras has been bad, certainly, but Greece was hardly on the path to recovery before he came along. It's not like he even ended austerity anyway, he's still practicing it too.


Only in the worst, most dysfunctional way. What the Greek government is doing right now is to over-tax everybody on the one hand - thereby keeping domestic consumption and investments at an all-time low - and on the other hand, chasing away foreing investors by dragging out necessary privatizations as long as possible. For example, two years ago, Samaras tried to privatize the Greek railway system for 300 mio. Euro, which Syriza vocally opposed in parliament and on the streets, calling it "theft" and "scandalous" etc etc. Now, with investor interest in Greek enterprises heavily reduced - thanks to the atmosphere of instability that Tsipras brought about - Tsipras himself agreed to sell said railway system for 45 mio. Euro. The Greek government themselves, through their actions, are chasing investors - and therefore job growth and recovery - out of the country.

I doubt the upcoming return of ND to government is going fix Greece


Nothing, NOTHING sort of a Golden Dawn takeover could be as awful as what we currently have.

and what is this constitutional reform? French media rarely speaks of Greek issues other than to say it is broke.


http://www.ekathimerini.com/210837/opin ... u-wish-for

New Democracy was in power prior to Syriza, and nothing happened then. Schauble was no kinder to Samaras than he is to Tsipras. Germany needs to realize that internal politicking and moral lecturing are not going to solve this, and by now, we really need to just solve this.


Yes, not supporting Samaras more turned out to be a mistake. I think the German government mis-judged what sort of moron Tsipras would turn out to be. Small wonder, most of us did.
And I repeat, no positive solution will come as long as Tsipras is in charge. It's as categorically impossible as Erdogan suddenly turning into a moderate democrat.
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Postby Olerand » Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:21 am

Baltenstein wrote:
The US does not have a controlling majority of the IMF, nor is it its place to bypass Germany (the fourth largest voter, largest European one) and provide Greece with funds, even if the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, is for. The IMF has been doing everything in its power to convince Europe of the necessity of stimulus, and it has called on Germany numerous times to use its budgetary surplus to stimulate the German economy too, but it can only do so much when Germany is categorically opposed to anything other than austerity.


The US could easily give Greece funds on a bilateral basis though. In fact, considering Turkish-American relations are going to become considerably worse in the near future, I'd argue this would actually be in the US' interests.
Of course, as long as Greece is ruled by a bunch of clueless Putin fanboys, no such thing is going to happen.

And I disagree on Germany being categorically opposed to anything other than austerity. As we've seen with Schauble's recent greenlighting of Portugal's and Spain's fiscal deficit violation, even German protestants are capable of giving Mediterranean countries the benefit of the doubt. Only when responsible behavior is to be expected though, which is not the case with Greece's current government.

That's not what I would consider a recovery. Tsipras has been bad, certainly, but Greece was hardly on the path to recovery before he came along. It's not like he even ended austerity anyway, he's still practicing it too.


Only in the worst, most dysfunctional way. What the Greek government is doing right now is to over-tax everybody on the one hand - thereby keeping domestic consumption and investments at an all-time low - and on the other hand, chasing away foreing investors by dragging out necessary privatizations as long as possible. For example, two years ago, Samaras tried to privatize the Greek railway system for 300 mio. Euro, which Syriza vocally opposed in parliament and on the streets, calling it "theft" and "scandalous" etc etc. Now, with investor interest in Greek enterprises heavily reduced - thanks to the atmosphere of instability that Tsipras brought about - Tsipras himself agreed to sell said railway system for 45 mio. Euro. The Greek government themselves, through their actions, are chasing investors - and therefore job growth and recovery - out of the country.

I doubt the upcoming return of ND to government is going fix Greece


Nothing, NOTHING sort of a Golden Dawn takeover could be as awful as what we currently have.

and what is this constitutional reform? French media rarely speaks of Greek issues other than to say it is broke.


http://www.ekathimerini.com/210837/opin ... u-wish-for

New Democracy was in power prior to Syriza, and nothing happened then. Schauble was no kinder to Samaras than he is to Tsipras. Germany needs to realize that internal politicking and moral lecturing are not going to solve this, and by now, we really need to just solve this.


Yes, not supporting Samaras more turned out to be a mistake. I think the German government mis-judged what sort of moron Tsipras would turn out to be. Small wonder, most of us did.
And I repeat, no positive solution will come as long as Tsipras is in charge. It's as categorically impossible as Erdogan suddenly turning into a moderate democrat.

I don't see why it would. The US is not in a budgetary situation that would lend itself to such generosity, nor is there any reason for America to bypass the already established international organizations or European powers and fund Greece itself. America is for a stimulus, but a European one, not an Marshall Plan of Greece.

Was there any other option? It's not like he could have possibly punished them. Schauble is no friend of Portugal either, whose government is anti-austerity and blames the previous government's bailout of the banks for its budgetary situation. Truly, he was trying to help Rajoy (and not blow winds into Eurosceptic sails), who clearly doesn't need this as he attempts, for the nth time, to form a Spanish government. If anything, Paris saved Portugal.
It's not the case with any Greek government, not since Greece acceded to the Euro at least. But by now, it shouldn't matter. The political reality should make debt relief for Greece a priority, regardless of who governs in Athens. A European stimulus, a real one, not Juncker's private-led (and still unrealized) 300 billion Euro or whatever stimulus, is also vitally needed in Europe, even for Germany. It needs to be coupled with structural reform, some sort of pan-European Economic Committee should be formed to oversee this new economic situation.

Which works off the premise that privatizing everything but the Parthenon is a good thing. I disagree. Without discounting Tsipras' many mistakes, the core is faulty, so there can be no good outcome for this.

Perhaps, but ND is still not going to fix Greece.

Or perhaps that even when ND returns, Germany will not act any differently. Perhaps, Berlin has ideologically chosen this camp, and whoever claims to call the shots in Athens is actually irrelevant. That is what I, most French, and I think most Europeans, now believe.

EDIT: From that editorial, I actually like the new constitutional measures. I agree with most of them, even if they are meaningless in Greece's current situation. I also find the complaint against elevating the people to constitutional importance to be... unpleasant. Very elitist, not very democratic. Yes, the people elected Erdogan, and they might even elect Trump, as is their right. This is not how you're (not you specifically, of course) going to build public support for your positions or the EU, by denigrating "the people".


Is this even new? Hasn't this been standard since... like the 1980s, when the IMF and Western countries would help third world countries in return for knocking down protectionist measures?
Last edited by Olerand on Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:26 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Llamalandia
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Ex-Nation

Postby Llamalandia » Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:52 pm

Arkolon wrote:
Llamalandia wrote:Ok but isn't Germany's economy pretty awesome at the moment? Seems like they are kinda doing something right over there.

The German economy being "pretty awesome" is a total byproduct of the European Union's structure. Namely, the euro is cheaper than the Deutschmark and so German exporters profit greatly from the currency union. Furthermore, the Eurozone allowed easy access to cheap credit for the European periphery, who indebted themselves to take in German capital and to buy more German products. Being in a currency union like the euro also means export-led growth is the only viable way to induce sustainable (ie not cyclical) growth, so in some sense Germans profit from the imbalance in the European economy. Paraphrasing the words of a FT columnist: "huge surpluses are just as bad as huge deficits", but these surpluses keep Germany strong, and the rest of the Eurozone weak. German mentality compels them to think that internal devaluation would do them well, and used the crisis (an Anglo-Saxon creation, in their eyes) to reject Anglo-Saxon economics, notably Keynesianism, which would spur demand and would avoid feeding this self-reinforcing crisis of austerity.

When the Eurocrisis hit the German labour market was malleable enough to absorb most of it, and its exports were more reliant on purchases outside of the European Union - which explains the change in German foreign policy to turn a blind eye to unethical Chinese (or other authoritarian) practices since these people are financing the resilience of the German economy.

Well being Austrian school myself, it sounds to me like german rejection of Keynes is good and it clearly seems to be working well for them. Plus a lot of Eurozone weakness is a result of their own policies which discourage free enterprise and promote socialism.

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Souseiseki
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Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Souseiseki » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:10 pm

Llamalandia wrote:
Souseiseki wrote:no seriously i want to see nigel command britain to get a nail file out and tediously scrape off the european union part

Sorry but he is enjoying his hard earned and well deserved retirement. Boris might be available though. :)


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Llamalandia
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Ex-Nation

Postby Llamalandia » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:13 pm

Souseiseki wrote:
Llamalandia wrote:Sorry but he is enjoying his hard earned and well deserved retirement. Boris might be available though. :)


i am going to personally do my best to make sure every fucking bastard involved in this is given the treatment by history that they properly deserve

Ummmmm. ..what??? What is that even supposed to mean? I mean I assume you are pro eu. I don't think anyone is really denying their role in brexit though. I mean do you have some specifics in mind?

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Arkolon
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Ex-Nation

Postby Arkolon » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:17 pm

Llamalandia wrote:
Arkolon wrote:The German economy being "pretty awesome" is a total byproduct of the European Union's structure. Namely, the euro is cheaper than the Deutschmark and so German exporters profit greatly from the currency union. Furthermore, the Eurozone allowed easy access to cheap credit for the European periphery, who indebted themselves to take in German capital and to buy more German products. Being in a currency union like the euro also means export-led growth is the only viable way to induce sustainable (ie not cyclical) growth, so in some sense Germans profit from the imbalance in the European economy. Paraphrasing the words of a FT columnist: "huge surpluses are just as bad as huge deficits", but these surpluses keep Germany strong, and the rest of the Eurozone weak. German mentality compels them to think that internal devaluation would do them well, and used the crisis (an Anglo-Saxon creation, in their eyes) to reject Anglo-Saxon economics, notably Keynesianism, which would spur demand and would avoid feeding this self-reinforcing crisis of austerity.

When the Eurocrisis hit the German labour market was malleable enough to absorb most of it, and its exports were more reliant on purchases outside of the European Union - which explains the change in German foreign policy to turn a blind eye to unethical Chinese (or other authoritarian) practices since these people are financing the resilience of the German economy.

Well being Austrian school myself, it sounds to me like german rejection of Keynes is good and it clearly seems to be working well for them. Plus a lot of Eurozone weakness is a result of their own policies which discourage free enterprise and promote socialism.

It isn't going that well: German wages are kept internally depressed and resilience is export-based. It's a pretty shoddy model that's used for the development of low-income countries after the Washington Consensus. For a massive creditor country like Germany, who acts as Europe's banker, the imbalance is one of the root causes of the woes in Europe today.
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Vassenor
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Vassenor » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:22 pm

Llamalandia wrote:
Souseiseki wrote:
i am going to personally do my best to make sure every fucking bastard involved in this is given the treatment by history that they properly deserve

Ummmmm. ..what??? What is that even supposed to mean? I mean I assume you are pro eu. I don't think anyone is really denying their role in brexit though. I mean do you have some specifics in mind?


He ran away like a child when it became clear the outcome might not be the utopia he claimed it would be just so he wouldn't be associated with the negatives.
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Llamalandia
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Ex-Nation

Postby Llamalandia » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:31 pm

Vassenor wrote:
Llamalandia wrote:Ummmmm. ..what??? What is that even supposed to mean? I mean I assume you are pro eu. I don't think anyone is really denying their role in brexit though. I mean do you have some specifics in mind?


He ran away like a child when it became clear the outcome might not be the utopia he claimed it would be just so he wouldn't be associated with the negatives.

Uh wasn't he one of the Guys who were like, please fire me, when he was in the European Parliament? Pretty sure he had long intended to accomplish his mission and leave. He won and left.

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Vassenor
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Vassenor » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:32 pm

Llamalandia wrote:
Vassenor wrote:
He ran away like a child when it became clear the outcome might not be the utopia he claimed it would be just so he wouldn't be associated with the negatives.

Uh wasn't he one of the Guys who were like, please fire me, when he was in the European Parliament? Pretty sure he had long intended to accomplish his mission and leave. He won and left.


After making us an international laughing stock.
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Llamalandia
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Ex-Nation

Postby Llamalandia » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:38 pm

Vassenor wrote:
Llamalandia wrote:Uh wasn't he one of the Guys who were like, please fire me, when he was in the European Parliament? Pretty sure he had long intended to accomplish his mission and leave. He won and left.


After making us an international laughing stock.

Actually like 80% of Americans were pro brexit. See Forbes:http://www.forbes.com/sites/katiesola/2016/06/22/brexit-poll-shows-80-of-americans-think-britain-should-leave-eu/#239cb47862b6

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Ifreann
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Founded: Aug 07, 2005
Scandinavian Liberal Paradise

Postby Ifreann » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:44 pm

Llamalandia wrote:
Vassenor wrote:
He ran away like a child when it became clear the outcome might not be the utopia he claimed it would be just so he wouldn't be associated with the negatives.

Uh wasn't he one of the Guys who were like, please fire me, when he was in the European Parliament? Pretty sure he had long intended to accomplish his mission and leave. He won and left.

He hasn't quit the European Parliament. He's resigned as leader of UKIP.

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Dooom35796821595
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Corrupt Dictatorship

Postby Dooom35796821595 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:48 pm

Ifreann wrote:
Llamalandia wrote:Uh wasn't he one of the Guys who were like, please fire me, when he was in the European Parliament? Pretty sure he had long intended to accomplish his mission and leave. He won and left.

He hasn't quit the European Parliament. He's resigned as leader of UKIP.


I'm sure he's determined to bleed every penny he can from the EU.
When life gives you lemons, you BURN THEIR HOUSE DOWN!
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Ifreann
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Scandinavian Liberal Paradise

Postby Ifreann » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:50 pm

Dooom35796821595 wrote:
Ifreann wrote:He hasn't quit the European Parliament. He's resigned as leader of UKIP.


I'm sure he's determined to bleed every penny he can from the EU.

Much as it pains me to do so, it is probably actually a good idea for him not to quit. If he did there'd have to be an election to replace him, and what would the point in that be?

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Dooom35796821595
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Founded: Sep 11, 2011
Corrupt Dictatorship

Postby Dooom35796821595 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:51 pm

Ifreann wrote:
Dooom35796821595 wrote:
I'm sure he's determined to bleed every penny he can from the EU.

Much as it pains me to do so, it is probably actually a good idea for him not to quit. If he did there'd have to be an election to replace him, and what would the point in that be?


For the lols?
When life gives you lemons, you BURN THEIR HOUSE DOWN!
Anything can be justified if it is cool. If at first you don't succeed, destroy all in your way.
"Your methods are stupid! Your progress has been stupid! Your intelligence is stupid! For the sake of the mission, you must be terminated!”

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Llamalandia
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Founded: Dec 07, 2011
Ex-Nation

Postby Llamalandia » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:57 pm

Ifreann wrote:
Llamalandia wrote:Uh wasn't he one of the Guys who were like, please fire me, when he was in the European Parliament? Pretty sure he had long intended to accomplish his mission and leave. He won and left.

He hasn't quit the European Parliament. He's resigned as leader of UKIP.

Well given that the whole raison d'être of UKIP and farrage I'm not surprised he left politics. He was really only there to get Britain out of the eu, he did. What else would he do? You can't really get "more out" of the eu. Kinda surprised UKIP still exists for that matter, I mean I guess technically they do have other parts to their platform but really they pretty much accomplished the big goal they had.

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