Political Developments in Western Societies

[Othelos]

Many western societies are entering their most tumultuous time in recent history. The combination of the harshest economic decline since the Great Depression, the refugee crisis & rising Islamaphobia, and rising dissatisfaction with mainstream parties is leading governments to splinter in many countries. In addition, the far right is rising into prominence.

- Spain transitioned from a two party to a multiparty system in 2015, punishing its mainstream parties.
- Austria is about to elect a far right president. Neither presidential candidate is from the mainstream parties, the first time in the postwar era.
- Switzerland and Denmark's largest parties in government are far right parties.
- The AfD in Germany is polling at 15% (just 5% lower than the mainstream opposition party, the SPD). Meanwhile, support is collapsing for Merkel's CDU. Altogether, the smaller parties together are favored by 45% of the public. This is in stark contrast to the two main parties currently holding 80% of seats.
- In the Netherlands, the far right party is running away in the polls, far ahead of the mainstream parties.
- In Sweden, the far right party is nearly on par with the two mainstream parties.
- In Finland, the nationalist party holds the second largest amount of seats.
- Hungary's far right party is the third largest party in government.
- Slovakia's far right party entered the government for the first time in the recent election.
- The United States isn't immune to this trend, either. Donald Trump is the most nationalist presidential candidate to be nominated in a long while, who stormed a continually splintering party that has lurched rightwards over recent elections. The Democrats are now lurching leftwards. Both mainstream parties are heavily divided and are about to nominate the most unpopular candidates in recent history. More polarization and dysfunction looms.

The bigger issue is that we are technically in the "good times" economically, meaning that our societies are running on borrowed time in terms of whatever stability leftover from before 2008 has carried over. When there is another recession, it's likely that these trends will only strengthen. What can we do to stop this from descending too far?

[Divergia]

People tend to sway to more extremist beliefs during and after economic crises. FDR was pretty progressive for his time and there was even an assassination plot by people convinced he was going to make America a socialist state. It'll fade with time or the ideologies they push will become the new norm.

[Major-Tom]

In Europe, the post WW2 consensus is falling apart after the Eurozone crisis. Unless the mainstream parties can convince voters that they care about their interests, then voters will feel incentivized to vote for radical parties, far right or far left.

[Utilitarian Garibaldi]

It's ok if populists gain some power somewhere in the EU. The rest will learn by watching them bleed whatever country they manage to get in charge of.

[Othelos]

In Europe, the post WW2 consensus is falling apart after the Eurozone crisis. Unless the mainstream parties can convince voters that they care about their interests, then voters will feel incentivized to vote for radical parties, far right or far left.

So far, it doesn't seem like it's been working.

[Jolet]

Western democracies are entering their most tumultuous time in recent history. The combination of the harshest economic decline since the Great Depression, the refugee crisis & rising Islamaphobia, and rising dissatisfaction with mainstream parties is leading governments to splinter in many countries. In addition, the far right is rising into prominence.

- Spain transitioned from a two party to a multiparty system in 2015, punishing its mainstream parties.
- Austria is about to elect a far right president. Neither presidential candidate is from the mainstream parties, the first time in the postwar era.
- Switzerland and Denmark's largest parties in government are far right parties.
- The AfD in Germany is polling at 15% (just 5% lower than the mainstream opposition party, the SPD). Meanwhile, support is collapsing for Merkel's CDU. Altogether, the smaller parties together are favored by 45% of the public. This is in stark contrast to the two main parties currently holding 80% of seats.
- In the Netherlands, the far right party is running away in the polls, far ahead of the mainstream parties.
- In Sweden, the far right party is nearly on par with the two mainstream parties.
- In Finland, the nationalist party holds the second largest amount of seats.
- Hungary's far right party is the third largest party in government.
- Slovakia's far right party entered the government for the first time in the recent election.
- The United States isn't immune to this trend, either. Donald Trump is the most nationalist presidential candidate to be nominated in a long while, who stormed a continually splintering party that has lurched rightwards over recent elections. The Democrats are now lurching leftwards. Both mainstream parties are heavily divided and are about to nominate the most unpopular candidates in recent history. More polarization and dysfunction looms.

The bigger issue is that we are technically in the "good times" economically, meaning that our societies are running on borrowed time in terms of whatever stability leftover from before 2008 has carried over. When there is another recession, it's likely that these trends will only strengthen. What can we do to stop this from descending too far?

I personally judge the movement to the far right as a reaction to a largely socialist system being in place for about 40+ years in most of those countries above, the US excluded. It's possible that people are getting tired of the socialist systems that are in place, as they are beginning to work dysfunctionally in many places.

Now, that's not to knock socialism- the Nordic states have proven that, with a proper social contract, a responsive government and a largely homogenous population (thinking Norway), socialism does work to a certain degree. That said, if it's unpopular elsewhere- which I would argue that this reactionary movement is a symptom of that, though you could probably argue it otherwise- perhaps a shift in policy is in order, if it represents the will of the people. Morals nonwithstanding, a democratic government- which is what all of the countries listed above claim to be- is to serve the will of the people. If the will of the people is to shift in this way, the government should and will reflect that in its political and demographic makeup.

So to answer the question, "What can we do to stop this from descending too far?", the answer is that we can't and we don't. The pendulum will swing back towards the center after this passes- unfortunately, it's playing the long game at this point.

My two cents, perfectly open to disagreeing.

[Major-Tom]

In Europe, the post WW2 consensus is falling apart after the Eurozone crisis. Unless the mainstream parties can convince voters that they care about their interests, then voters will feel incentivized to vote for radical parties, far right or far left.

So far, it doesn't seem like it's been working.

That's because the mainstream parties haven't made any concerted efforts to appeal to the "common man" beyond "don't fall for radicalism, they're racist/communist/morally obtuse" or whatever criticism is available.

[Councilmembers]

People are scared. Politicians and media pundits take a legitimate issue that we need to tackle (terrorism in this case) and scapegoat an entire religion of one billion people to manipulate voters into giving them power. Even Americans, who so boisterously claim that "no one shall ever take MY freedoms," are taking the bait and voting for the end of due process and civil liberties for Muslim communities in the United States.

Trump is a very smart man -- though smartness isn't worth a damn unless you have a good heart. He knows how to play people who don't know any better. It's disgusting.

[Grand Britannia]

Why leave the good 'ol Poles behind

[Major-Tom]

Why leave the good 'ol Poles behind

I dunno man, the last time we involved the Poles in world affairs, they got assaulted on two fronts.

[Costa Fierro]

Europe =/= the West. Even Trump's rise to the party nomination in the Republican Party still means he has to take on whichever Democratic candidate wins. Either way, he can't in. The United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Canada all have the mainstream parties dominating political polls and it's likely next year's presidential election in France could see Sarkozy returning to the Elysee Palace. Polling shows Front National candidate Marine Le Pen trailing behind all primary presidential candidates from both the UMP/LR and the Socialists.

[Othelos]

Europe =/= the West. Even Trump's rise to the party nomination in the Republican Party still means he has to take on whichever Democratic candidate wins. Either way, he can't in. The United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Canada all have the mainstream parties dominating political polls and it's likely next year's presidential election in France could see Sarkozy returning to the Elysee Palace. Polling shows Front National candidate Marine Le Pen trailing behind all primary presidential candidates from both the UMP/LR and the Socialists.

The topic is on the "rise", that doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as taking over the majority. The far right has risen in both France and the UK - but clearly not enough to win majority support. Canada has a left leaning public in general, and its economy has recovered. Australia and NZ are in a totally different area of the world and therefore aren't facing the same geopolitical issues as acutely.

The majority of the public in western countries live in areas where these changes are happening.

[Communist Xomaniax]

A perceived failure by the political center to properly address problem facing the working class and the nation as a whole, combined with the breaking down of the hated neoliberal consensus, and (at least in Europe) the outrage at the government's handling of the migrant crisis, has put the continued power of the political center at serious risk. I will not mourn them if they fall, they did it entirely on their own.

[The balkens]

A perceived failure by the political center to properly address problem facing the working class and the nation as a whole, combined with the breaking down of the hated neoliberal consensus, and (at least in Europe) the outrage at the government's handling of the migrant crisis, has put the continued power of the political center at serious risk. I will not mourn them if they fall, they did it entirely on their own.

nothing of value was lost.

[Zoice]

It annoys me when people blame lefties for problems with the right. Yeah, lefties could be doing a better job at not provoking far right tendencies. That doesn't mean the far right isn't the actual problem.

[Pope Joan]

Western democracies are entering their most tumultuous time in recent history. The combination of the harshest economic decline since the Great Depression, the refugee crisis & rising Islamaphobia, and rising dissatisfaction with mainstream parties is leading governments to splinter in many countries. In addition, the far right is rising into prominence.

- Spain transitioned from a two party to a multiparty system in 2015, punishing its mainstream parties.
- Austria is about to elect a far right president. Neither presidential candidate is from the mainstream parties, the first time in the postwar era.
- Switzerland and Denmark's largest parties in government are far right parties.
- The AfD in Germany is polling at 15% (just 5% lower than the mainstream opposition party, the SPD). Meanwhile, support is collapsing for Merkel's CDU. Altogether, the smaller parties together are favored by 45% of the public. This is in stark contrast to the two main parties currently holding 80% of seats.
- In the Netherlands, the far right party is running away in the polls, far ahead of the mainstream parties.
- In Sweden, the far right party is nearly on par with the two mainstream parties.
- In Finland, the nationalist party holds the second largest amount of seats.
- Hungary's far right party is the third largest party in government.
- Slovakia's far right party entered the government for the first time in the recent election.
- The United States isn't immune to this trend, either. Donald Trump is the most nationalist presidential candidate to be nominated in a long while, who stormed a continually splintering party that has lurched rightwards over recent elections. The Democrats are now lurching leftwards. Both mainstream parties are heavily divided and are about to nominate the most unpopular candidates in recent history. More polarization and dysfunction looms.

The bigger issue is that we are technically in the "good times" economically, meaning that our societies are running on borrowed time in terms of whatever stability leftover from before 2008 has carried over. When there is another recession, it's likely that these trends will only strengthen. What can we do to stop this from descending too far?

The NY Times has practically awarded the Presidency to Hillary Clinton, who has been endorsed by the Koch Brothers. Her campaign is funded by huge corporations and millionsaires. I'd hardly call that evidence that the Democrats are "lurching leftwards".

[Ostroeuropa]

Europe =/= the West. Even Trump's rise to the party nomination in the Republican Party still means he has to take on whichever Democratic candidate wins. Either way, he can't in. The United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Canada all have the mainstream parties dominating political polls and it's likely next year's presidential election in France could see Sarkozy returning to the Elysee Palace. Polling shows Front National candidate Marine Le Pen trailing behind all primary presidential candidates from both the UMP/LR and the Socialists.

The topic is on the "rise", that doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as taking over the majority. The far right has risen in both France and the UK - but clearly not enough to win majority support. Canada has a left leaning public in general, and its economy has recovered. Australia and NZ are in a totally different area of the world and therefore aren't facing the same geopolitical issues as acutely.

The majority of the public in western countries live in areas where these changes are happening.

This. The far-right doesn't have to win right now. They just have to position themselves as the government in waiting against the globalist neoliberal consensus.

When their stupid economic system inevitably crashes again, it's springtime. The new "egalitarian" minded far-right has managed to seize social issues from the establishment. It's only fear of economic mismanagement keeping them out of power.

To prevent the far-right, the establishment will need to defuse whats fueling them or prevent an economic crahs.

That means: Progressive social democracy
Or
Nationalist Right-Wing Capitalism

Trying to be Neoliberals is going to lead to the far-right, sooner or later. The elites simply cannot fathom that their system isn't working and just scream names at people for going against them, so... i'd say practice your goose stepping. The modern far-right is a political alliance between alienated and pissed off left and right wing voters coming to an arrangement.

Since neoliberals have taken over most major parties in most countries, there's no "Opposition" catharsis.

[Angleter]

Mainstream parties have generally ignored at best, and derided at worst, their ordinary voters' views on immigration, integration, and (within its borders) the European Union. Those would be the main issues - obviously, each country has its own set of other issues on which right-wing populist parties have capitalised. There's a strong sense that mainstream parties, and thus the country as a whole, is run by an elite that dislikes, or doesn't understand, the very idea of nations and of national democracy. They look down on, or just don't get, people's attachment to their country, its borders, its sovereignty, its culture, and its identity. And though secondary to the national question, economic issues are a factor too. Right-wing populists have varying views on economics (compare Marine Le Pen to Douglas Carswell), but they're united by opposition to what they see, again, as an elite consensus for a sclerotic form of crony capitalism - the Davos attitude. And these elites look like they have far more in common with each other than with their dissatisfied voter bases - they all agree on these 'consensus' issues; they're resistant to any political reform or deal that would dare break their hegemony; and they live and work in a sanitised, upper-class cosmopolitan world which naturally leads them to the aforementioned consensus on nations and borders. For them, mass immigration and multiculturalism and diversity means easy travel, nice food, social liberalism, multilingualism, etc. And who wouldn't want that? But it's a very different experience in and around, say, Tower Hamlets.

What can mainstream parties do? They need to accommodate people's concerns regarding immigration, the EU, and suchlike; and they need to paint in bold colours against each other. Keeping hitting the grand coalition/cordon sanitaire button, especially if a right-wing populist party is moderating its message, will invariably communicate the message that the mainstream parties are all the same, do have more in common with each other than their respective voter bases, and will put keeping their consensus in power above any and all other concerns. On the right, a number of parties have been able to win this way - the Tories in Britain, the Tories in Canada (remember Reform?), the Liberals in Australia (remember One Nation?), the Conservatives in Norway, N-VA in Flanders, PiS in Poland, and so on. Indeed, look at Spain - while it's become a four-party system, and though the 'PPSOE' criticism has stuck somewhat, the fact that the two main parties hate each other and wouldn't think of a grand coalition has, I'd say, contributed to the lack of a right-wing populist movement.

Quite what the left can do, I'm not sure.

[Lady Scylla]

Western democracies are entering their most tumultuous time in recent history. The combination of the harshest economic decline since the Great Depression, the refugee crisis & rising Islamaphobia, and rising dissatisfaction with mainstream parties is leading governments to splinter in many countries. In addition, the far right is rising into prominence.

- Spain transitioned from a two party to a multiparty system in 2015, punishing its mainstream parties.
- Austria is about to elect a far right president. Neither presidential candidate is from the mainstream parties, the first time in the postwar era.
- Switzerland and Denmark's largest parties in government are far right parties.
- The AfD in Germany is polling at 15% (just 5% lower than the mainstream opposition party, the SPD). Meanwhile, support is collapsing for Merkel's CDU. Altogether, the smaller parties together are favored by 45% of the public. This is in stark contrast to the two main parties currently holding 80% of seats.
- In the Netherlands, the far right party is running away in the polls, far ahead of the mainstream parties.
- In Sweden, the far right party is nearly on par with the two mainstream parties.
- In Finland, the nationalist party holds the second largest amount of seats.
- Hungary's far right party is the third largest party in government.
- Slovakia's far right party entered the government for the first time in the recent election.
- The United States isn't immune to this trend, either. Donald Trump is the most nationalist presidential candidate to be nominated in a long while, who stormed a continually splintering party that has lurched rightwards over recent elections. The Democrats are now lurching leftwards. Both mainstream parties are heavily divided and are about to nominate the most unpopular candidates in recent history. More polarization and dysfunction looms.

The bigger issue is that we are technically in the "good times" economically, meaning that our societies are running on borrowed time in terms of whatever stability leftover from before 2008 has carried over. When there is another recession, it's likely that these trends will only strengthen. What can we do to stop this from descending too far?

We're not. While there's been some recovery, household income -- such as in the US -- has stalled for the lower three quintiles (which includes the Lower Middle-Class), while the top two quintiles have increased (which has widened the income gap), and a bubble on commodity markets has started to form which is partly why the markets have had a fit here recently. While unemployment is down; people are making less money and debt is still climbing with interest rates unable to deleverage any further.

It's not uncommon for recessions to precede depressions, the 1921 recession happened not long before the '29 crash. Economic cycles typically last 10-20 years, meaning that another potential crash (I'm expecting the commodity markets to fail) will be sometime around 2020. What we're seeing now is the start of a deflationary spiral. The collapse of Middle Eastern states after several decades of war and turmoil, and the largest refugee crisis since WWII, including a plethora of economic aftershocks have all contributed to the rise of the right parties who feel the status quo is much of the problem. (Which isn't entirely unfounded)

[New Rogernomics]

[...]Trying to be Neoliberals is going to lead to the far-right, sooner or later. The elites simply cannot fathom that their system isn't working and just scream names at people for going against them, so... i'd say practice your goose stepping. The modern far-right is a political alliance between alienated and pissed off left and right wing voters coming to an arrangement.

Since neoliberals have taken over most major parties in most countries, there's no "Opposition" catharsis.

There's a battle going on between neo-liberals (who make up the centralist parties), the far-left, the far-right, and other parties skeptical of current economics. Trump is cashing in on that, as is Bernie Sanders.

Simple reality is that right now people are angry, the economic bubble of the 1990s-2000s has been totally shattered, and the neo-liberal establishment have been made to look idiots out of touch with economic reality, and they have lost most of their power, and the respect of the masses, as a result.

It is really a post-neo-liberal era now. Question is, will it be post-neo liberal right, or post-neo liberal left, that eventually gain dominance?

[San Marlindo]

The harshest economic decline since the Great Depression? Lolwut how come nobody thought to tell me I was living in the harshest economic decline since the Great Depression? I mean I work for a living, I buy my own food. I should notice these things.

[Dinake]

Why leave the good 'ol Poles behind

Because Law and Justice is Poland's mainstream political party, or one of them at least? They're not exactly far-right.

[Ostroeuropa]

[...]Trying to be Neoliberals is going to lead to the far-right, sooner or later. The elites simply cannot fathom that their system isn't working and just scream names at people for going against them, so... i'd say practice your goose stepping. The modern far-right is a political alliance between alienated and pissed off left and right wing voters coming to an arrangement.

Since neoliberals have taken over most major parties in most countries, there's no "Opposition" catharsis.

There's a battle going on between neo-liberals (who make up the centralist parties), the far-left, the far-right, and other parties skeptical of current economics. Trump is cashing in on that, as is Bernie Sanders.

Simple reality is that right now people are angry, the economic bubble of the 1990s-2000s has been totally shattered, and the neo-liberal establishment have been made to look idiots out of touch with economic reality, and they have lost most of their power, and the respect of the masses, as a result.

It is really a post-neo-liberal era now. Question is, will it be post-neo liberal right, or post-neo liberal left, that eventually gain dominance?

I suspect it will be the right.
The neoliberals on the left are kept in power by identity politics these days, it's all they have.

Because ethnic minorities side with these people, they are pro-open borders too. We're being colonized by collaborators to maintain a system of economic exploitation. That's the narrative.
You know what happens to collaborators when the regime falls.

Alternatively ethnic minorities could show solidarity, but they won't. They're too beholden to identity politics, and a publically egalitarian platform opposed to their special privileges won't win their support.
Like all good narratives, this one has a "From a certain point of view" ring to it. The far-right aren't stupid, and are benefiting from peoples assumption that they are so, they keep a lot to themselves unless you talk to them on a friendly basis.

[Vatyrzom]

It's blow-back from globalization, the way I see it. Specifically, blow-back from globalization and neoliberal economics being (rightly) seen to have enriched the wealthy at the expense of the Western proletariat. The Red Scare prevents a proper far-left from arising, but identity politics seem to be ineffectively trying to fill that niche (and in the process cannibalizing each other worse than the Second International).

Plus, really, who actually ever supports the mushy middle (except for 'pragmatists')? It's always the result of compromise, just nowadays the Third Way Left have made compromise with capitalism into a habit to the point where socialist parties support austerity.

[Kubra]

whatevs centrism is boring