US General Election Megathread: Trump vs Clinton

[AiliailiA]

Libertarians always poll better than their election results.

2008: In 4-way polls (D, R, L, I(Nader)) Barr got between 1% and 6%. In the election he got 0.4%
2012: In 5-way polls (D, R, L, G, Const) Johnson got 2-3%. In the election he got 1%

Good post.

Same with the Greens. I doubt the voters showing up in opinion polls make a "lesser of two evils" choice in the end, more likely they don't vote ... there's less motivation when they know they can't win. Plus the national vote is suppressed by not having many Greens down-ticket.

Elections must have been much more exciting before there was opinion polling.

[Galloism]

Trump has closed Hillaries gap by 4% in the last month.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html

And there is possibly a Bradley Effect with Trump where polls underestimate him.

I suspect we're heading for a DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN moment. The media has been constantly shit talking Donalds chances from the beginning, and he's proved them wrong all the way.
His recent move to the left and hillaries to the right will only make this more apparent I suspect.

We'll see the polling gap continue to close.

(April 1st: 10.9 -> May 4th 6.5)

Some polls suggest as much as 5% of people are too embaressed to admit they vote Trump to pollsters, but will admit it to robot pollsters.
The election may be much closer, like, 2% or so.

This benefits Donald, because Clinton will burn away some of her lead by pandering to the corporate elite a bit, thinking she has votes to spare, and Donald will start appealing to a wider base to close the gap.

This has all the ingrediants for a surprise Trump victory.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary- ... s-support/

My prediction:
https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopi ... #p28650837

<Deity of your choice> help us.

[Infected Mushroom]

Trump has closed Hillaries gap by 4% in the last month.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html

And there is possibly a Bradley Effect with Trump where polls underestimate him.

I suspect we're heading for a DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN moment. The media has been constantly shit talking Donalds chances from the beginning, and he's proved them wrong all the way.
His recent move to the left and hillaries to the right will only make this more apparent I suspect.

We'll see the polling gap continue to close.

(April 1st: 10.9 -> May 4th 6.5)

Some polls suggest as much as 5% of people are too embaressed to admit they vote Trump to pollsters, but will admit it to robot pollsters.
The election may be much closer, like, 2% or so.

This benefits Donald, because Clinton will burn away some of her lead by pandering to the corporate elite a bit, thinking she has votes to spare, and Donald will start appealing to a wider base to close the gap.

This has all the ingrediants for a surprise Trump victory.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary- ... s-support/

My prediction:
https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopi ... #p28650837

VERY exciting stuff..

[Ancient Pluto]

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESID ... /polls.php

This map is probably better, simply because it uses polls.

Although a lot of polls are out of date for solidly partisan states.

...the Dems being red and the GOP being blue threw me for a second. I was like "since when is Washington solidly Republican" and then I realized

yeah, that threw me off too XD

Hey, you kids! Get off my lawn and leave my Trump for President sign alone!! *brandishes gun*

Your avi suits you.

The GOP party apparatus has experience with semi-populist, unorthodox outsiders- but all of them have been religious conservatives. If they treat Trump like that, they'll get burned.

He's already got them soaked in Trump jet fuel. Is Paul Ryan's new nickname Sparky?

But will they'll be able to melt Trump steel beams?

[The Liberated Territories]

For the average person that gets his news straight from the television from 6-8pm every night, he may never hear a third party candidate. Compared to the hours among hours CNN and other media spends on e.g. Donald Trump, third parties might as well be non-existent.

There is also, Duverger's law, giving people a strong incentive to vote for one out of two parties.. The only way the two party state can end is if reforms are taken to eliminating FPTP, yet we know that the parties in power will never support such a concept.

[Spiffier]

Anyone else stocked about Trump's reversal on taxes and minimum wage? This is definitely more reflective of his politics prior to his shift to appease the Republican Party.

[Jolthig]

Sanders ia the bo.b

[Ostroeuropa]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/pre ... r-than-men

Trump is to my knowledge the first major political figure in history, who directly spoke out for men as a demographic and even dared to say women have it better.
This is a huge deal. Whatever else you think about Trump, he is certainly courageous and anti-establishment - even revolutionary in this way. We need him to be successful with this if only to demonstrate to other politicians that it can be viable to openly stand up for men and not automatic political suicide the way it has been perceived up until now. Trump has just become very important for men's rights, and hopefully if he keeps it up he can bring it into the political mainstream discussion.

Whether this is from Trump being an outsider daring to tell the truth, a provocative troll, is in touch with his voter base online, or because he's taking the opposite stance to Clinton, is hard to say.

[Philjia]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279132-trump-women-get-it-better-than-men

Trump is to my knowledge the first major political figure in history, who directly spoke out for men as a demographic and even dared to say women have it better.
This is a huge deal. Whatever else you think about Trump, he is certainly courageous and anti-establishment - even revolutionary in this way. We need him to be successful with this if only to demonstrate to other politicians that it can be viable to openly stand up for men and not automatic political suicide the way it has been perceived up until now. Trump has just become very important for men's rights, and hopefully if he keeps it up he can bring it into the political mainstream discussion.

Whether this is from Trump being an outsider daring to tell the truth, a provocative troll, is in touch with his voter base online, or because he's taking the opposite stance to Clinton, is hard to say.

I don't think you understands how this works. Anything Trump touches becomes political kryptonite.

[AiliailiA]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279132-trump-women-get-it-better-than-men

Trump is to my knowledge the first major political figure in history, who directly spoke out for men as a demographic and even dared to say women have it better.
This is a huge deal.

No, that's just fucking sad.

“I mean all of the men, we’re petrified to speak to women anymore. We may raise our voice,” he said. “You know what, the women get it better than we do, folks.

“Look, we’re living in the real world. This political correctness is killing our country.”

If that was some guy in the pub ranting about his ex, I'd tell him he'd had enough to drink and offer to call him a cab.

Hell, I'd drive the poor bastard home. Force of habit, I forget that I have a driver's license now.

[Ostroeuropa]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279132-trump-women-get-it-better-than-men

Trump is to my knowledge the first major political figure in history, who directly spoke out for men as a demographic and even dared to say women have it better.
This is a huge deal.

No, that's just fucking sad.

“I mean all of the men, we’re petrified to speak to women anymore. We may raise our voice,” he said. “You know what, the women get it better than we do, folks.

“Look, we’re living in the real world. This political correctness is killing our country.”

If that was some guy in the pub ranting about his ex, I'd tell him he'd had enough to drink and offer to call him a cab.

Hell, I'd drive the poor bastard home. Force of habit, I forget that I have a driver's license now.

A good example of how mens issues aren't taken seriously.

[AiliailiA]

No, that's just fucking sad.



If that was some guy in the pub ranting about his ex, I'd tell him he'd had enough to drink and offer to call him a cab.

Hell, I'd drive the poor bastard home. Force of habit, I forget that I have a driver's license now.

A good example of how mens issues aren't taken seriously.

I take them seriously when they're expressed seriously.

But you shouldn't pretend that Trump did that. He's not going to be a good advocate for you, any more than he will be a good advocate for American workers, or for American businesses, or for ... anyone but himself, really.

His comments are stupid and motivated by personal animus, and you should know better than to want him on your side.

[Khadgar]

A good example of how mens issues aren't taken seriously.

I take them seriously when they're expressed seriously.

But you shouldn't pretend that Trump did that. He's not going to be a good advocate for you, any more than he will be a good advocate for American workers, or for American businesses, or for ... anyone but himself, really.

His comments are stupid and motivated by personal animus, and you should know better than to want him on your side.

He has a Y chromosome though, clearly he's gonna win.

[Philjia]

No, that's just fucking sad.



If that was some guy in the pub ranting about his ex, I'd tell him he'd had enough to drink and offer to call him a cab.

Hell, I'd drive the poor bastard home. Force of habit, I forget that I have a driver's license now.

A good example of how mens issues aren't taken seriously.

And you think will somehow change that? Get real. If anything, it's going to set us back, because nobody wants to agree with Trump.

[AiliailiA]

I take them seriously when they're expressed seriously.

But you shouldn't pretend that Trump did that. He's not going to be a good advocate for you, any more than he will be a good advocate for American workers, or for American businesses, or for ... anyone but himself, really.

His comments are stupid and motivated by personal animus, and you should know better than to want him on your side.

He has a Y chromosome though, clearly he's gonna win.

Even if he wins, I don't expect him to do anything about child custody, child support orders, discrimination in sentencing or any other specific concerns of men as previously enunciated by Ostroeuropa.

I feel some apprehension on behalf of the people Trump targets. But ultimately I expect the real losers to be anyone who Trump tried to speak for. To paraphrase Philjia: everything Trump touches turns to shit.

[Khadgar]

He has a Y chromosome though, clearly he's gonna win.

Even if he wins, I don't expect him to do anything about child custody, child support orders, discrimination in sentencing or any other specific concerns of men as previously enunciated by Ostroeuropa.

I feel some apprehension on behalf of the people Trump targets. But ultimately I expect the real losers to be anyone who Trump tried to speak for. To paraphrase Philjia: everything Trump touches turns to shit.

In order to address those things they'll have to address systemic sexism. Trump doesn't give a shit about sexism. Hell he's pro-sexism.

[Ostroeuropa]

A good example of how mens issues aren't taken seriously.

And you think will somehow change that? Get real. If anything, it's going to set us back, because nobody wants to agree with Trump.

So because of the source people won't agree?
Then he's entirely right. PC is killing the country.

[Philjia]

And you think will somehow change that? Get real. If anything, it's going to set us back, because nobody wants to agree with Trump.

So because of the source people won't agree?
Then he's entirely right. PC is killing the country.

There's being overtly PC and then there's not wanting to be seen associating with a man who is clearly a bigoted deranged lunatic.

[Utceforp]

And you think will somehow change that? Get real. If anything, it's going to set us back, because nobody wants to agree with Trump.

So because of the source people won't agree?
Then he's entirely right. PC is killing the country.

The vast majority of the things Donald Trump says are idiotic. Therefore, even if he has something non-idiotic to say (which I don't think is true in this case anyway) people will reasonably assume it is idiotic.

[Grand Britannia]

ITT: Men don't have issues because I say so

I's almost like people oppose Trump just because they don't like him.

[Guardian Empire of Earth]

It's times like these I wonder why many baby boomers had children...
Only the laziest, most self centered generation could end up with candidates like these.
Damnit, I hated Mitt Romney, but good god he would have been a better choice.
At least Mormons have morals.

[Ostroeuropa]

ITT: Men don't have issues because I say so

I's almost like people oppose Trump just because they don't like him.

That's pretty much it. The media up and decided to paint him as a sexist and a racist, and people are responding to the way they have been conditioned for years to immediately and hysterically denounce everything he ever says and denounce him.

Never mind that Clinton has actually racist and sexist policies (Affirmitive action, Campus kangaroo court support), Trump said mean words, that counts far more.

And they're so indoctrinated into it they'll march up to support a status quo candidate nobody even likes to keep the guy out of office because he isn't a career politician who fakes all his public interactions. Identity politics and media sensationalism are the reason they don't like him, not anything about him specifically.

The media would always have found a way to make him out to be evil and demand people oppose him.

[Philjia]

ITT: Men don't have issues because I say so

I's almost like people oppose Trump just because they don't like him.

That's pretty much it. The media up and decided to paint him as a sexist and a racist, and people are responding to the way they have been conditioned for years to immediately and hysterically denounce everything he ever says and denounce him.

Never mind that Clinton has actually racist and sexist policies (Affirmitive action, Campus kangaroo court support), Trump said mean words, that counts far more.

That's politics. Play the game or GTFO.

[Ostroeuropa]

That's pretty much it. The media up and decided to paint him as a sexist and a racist, and people are responding to the way they have been conditioned for years to immediately and hysterically denounce everything he ever says and denounce him.

Never mind that Clinton has actually racist and sexist policies (Affirmitive action, Campus kangaroo court support), Trump said mean words, that counts far more.

That's politics. Play the game or GTFO.

He isn't playing the game, that's the point, it's one of his better qualities.

[Utceforp]

ITT: Men don't have issues because I say so

I's almost like people oppose Trump just because they don't like him.

Men are discriminated against in certain circumstances, and that needs to be addressed. That is a wildly different statement from “I mean all of the men, we’re petrified to speak to women anymore" or " You know what, the women get it better than we do, folks." or “Look, we’re living in the real world. This political correctness is killing our country.” The first statement is true, the latter three are bullshit.

It's almost like people oppose Trump because he's a pseudo-fascist demagogue with terrible ideas and a massive ego, and has a striking resemblance to a dog's backside coated with cheeto dust wearing a bird's nest as a hat. (Okay, not that last bit.)